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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Yankees and Phillies feel like the logical options. Both have very thin outfields and play in parks where Bellinger's bat would play up based on the expected homerun numbers. I'd definitely be cautious in trading Bellinger. I know everyone wants to add power to the lineup, but Soto aside none of the FA outfielders are really any better than him holistically. Plus I'm not sure that saving Bellinger's money really moves the needle that much, since it's probably going right back into e.g. Anthony Santander. Unless you have something specific lined up that moves the needle more than I expect, keep the defense, keep the outfielder on a short term deal, forego some dongs.
  2. Bertz
    More information about "Cubs Still Looking For Catcher & Relief Help"
    The Cubs on Wednesday added reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels. According to The Athletic the Cubs are still looking to further bolster both areas of the roster. Morgan not being the only planned reliever add this offseason is not surprising considering how often Jed Hoyer has used the word "depth" when discussing the bullpen. Matt Thaiss at catcher was a little more ambiguous, though the team is thin at catcher in AAA as well so it's a position that could use some depth as well. Given that the Cubs have not yet spent significant money this winter, paired with neither position moving much yet in free agency (with the notable exception of Travis d'Arnaud), any player the team was eying before Wednesday's moves is likely still on the table.
  3. Bertz
    The Cubs on Wednesday added reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels. According to The Athletic the Cubs are still looking to further bolster both areas of the roster. Morgan not being the only planned reliever add this offseason is not surprising considering how often Jed Hoyer has used the word "depth" when discussing the bullpen. Matt Thaiss at catcher was a little more ambiguous, though the team is thin at catcher in AAA as well so it's a position that could use some depth as well. Given that the Cubs have not yet spent significant money this winter, paired with neither position moving much yet in free agency (with the notable exception of Travis d'Arnaud), any player the team was eying before Wednesday's moves is likely still on the table. View full rumor
  4. Bertz
    Again because it's November and he has barely spent a dime and not February with the team within spitting distance of the tax line. Also just last year they acquired like 5 catchers like this through waiver roulette. It was a whole meme because people kept flipping out while they hadn't done anything big yet.
  5. Bertz
    @enosarris.bsky.social on Bluesky BSKY.APP Weird little thing I just found. There were 4 Triple-A SP with above-average stuff & location numbers...
  6. Bertz
    From what I can find the official numbers came out a month later than this last year https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/eight-teams-combine-for-record-209-8mm-in-luxury-tax-bills.html Though I agree teams likely find out before (I'd hope well before) the public.
  7. Bertz
    lol, beyond parody
  8. Bertz
    It's mid November and the #2 catcher on the Cubs' depth chart as of this morning was William Simoneit who is 28 and had a 37% K rate in AAA last year. Several of you are WAYYYYY overthinking this.
  9. Bertz
    It would have been surprising for him to sign this year and leave an extra couple million on the table, but good to see confirmation. Also if he was rushing to be part of this year's class it would have been a clear(er) sign he was planning to be a Dodger, since they currently have the most unspent pool space.
  10. Bertz
    I mean your posts on this topic aren't exactly making me rethink whether "whining" was the right way to refer to your reacton.
  11. Bertz
    Yeah that definitely impacts the calculus But like Neris was something like RP12 on last year's FA market. Does this year having the arms they have as cheap as they have them mean that Jed's willing to shop in the RP3 - RP5 range? Or put another way, last winter Jed was clearly shopping for "best reliever I can get on a 1 year deal." Is that still his target, or will he raise his sights to "best reliever I can get without needing a 3+ year deal"?
  12. Bertz
    If Matt Thaiss is the opening day backup catcher, that's a problem. Full stop. That said: - This could just be waiver wire roulette. In the same way that teams claim relievers and then shortly after DFA them to sneak them through waivers, that would be a savvy play here to try and sneak Thaiss down to Iowa - Similarly, this may be a placeholder until they sign the inevitable veteran and then DFA Thaiss. The Cubs only have Amaya as a catcher on the 40 man currently, you need SOMEBODY there as a placeholder - Because of positional flexibility of guys like Hoerner and Bellinger, having a 3rd catcher on the MLB roster wouldn't be crazy, especially early in the year before the kids start pounding on the door. I wouldn't hate Thaiss getting a Luis Torrens style run until Shaw comes up around like Memorial Day
  13. Bertz
    I wonder if getting Morgan in the door and doing so for barely north of league minimum makes Jed more likely to just pay retail for a closer. No one in the pen is slated to make more than $1.5M. Even if you spent $12-15M on a free agent closer you'd still be spending only ~$25M on the group collectively? Similarly, expectations have been $50-55M is availabe to spend this winter. With Morgan in tow you're still looking at that same $50-55M. You could pay low 8 figures for a closer and still have ~$40M left for a SP and bench help. It'd be a bit tight, but only by several million. The team being willing to exceed the tax, or another trade similar to this one to fill one of the bench spots would get us in the clear.
  14. Bertz
    I don't want to get too caught up on half a season of L/R splits, but Hodge's peripherals were stronger against lefties than righties. And with his cutter I think there's repertoire reasons to think it doesn't have to be a fluke. I wonder if the plan is to bring in a veteran closer, and then Hodge functions as the "lefty" setup man while Pearson is the righty? I could also see if the big SP add is a lefty the thought being that you very much want a pen loaded with righties.
  15. Bertz
    They're not all tied for last place, but I do think there's at least a 7-8 way tie for last place. - Fried feels reasonably likely, full stop - Santander got specifically name checked by Sharma in like August as a guy the Cubs really liked. I think Bellinger coming back closes the door here but it's not a slam dunk. Sharma does not venture into roomer mongering lightly - Nick Pivetta feels like he might have enough upside to warrant it? He seems like a guy you could get for $50M and convince yourself you can coach up to being worth $100M+ - Walker and Severino feel very unlikely, but I wouldn't necessarily say they're impossible. Your reasoning for each is sound
  16. Bertz
    Are you having an episode right now?
  17. Bertz
    His peripherals all went the wrong way last year but he became extremely successful at generating soft contact. Curious how real the latter is. Also pretty normal L/R splits, which is a bit surprising considering his signature pitch is a bugs bunny changeup.
  18. Bertz
    That Garcia haul feels excessive, but the Crochet deal feels light. I could see the holistic cost being correct-ish even if it needs to be distributed a bit differently. Overall I think this is the rough shape I'm hoping for this offseason. Two exciting SPs, one exciting RP, and plus some fiddling beyond that. A few specific things I'd quibble with - Alexander seems unnecessary after adding Garcia. He's kind of a pure LOOGY at this point, and with the left handed reliever box checked, pretty emphatically at that, I'd assume Garcia and Little can take care of us from the left side and just look for someone on a minor league deal as a pure lefty killer - I would probably look for more power in our Wisdom replacement than Solano provides. Solano not being limited to 4B is nice, but it wouldn't be my priority with that roster spot. I tend to think complimenting Busch is more important than any defensive value, especially if we have a Vazquez or some other plus defensive infielder elsewhere on the bench Overall this would be a fun team. That pitching staff has an opportunity to absolutely smother opposing offenses.
  19. Bertz
    Yeah I think that's where I'm leaning too. Wisdom + Madrigal pretty much as locks, and then one maybe two pitchers. Wingenter seems to be most cost-prohibitive with his $1.4M arb number, while Zastryzny seems to be most fungible, so they seem most likely.
  20. Bertz
    Curious how many spots the team feels the need to open up this week. The to-do list of team needs as far as we know is - 1 SP - A reserve infielder (ideally lefty) - A couple relievers - It has not been reported but I also feel pretty safe presuming that if Wisdom gets NT'd that a 1 for 1 backfill will be added So that's 5 roster spots that are needed. Maybe call it 6 or 7 in case there are priorities we don't know about or they want an open roster spot for waiver wire roulette. However, we also know the plan for this winter involves some trades, so Jed does not necessarily need to open up 5 spots to accommodate 5 additions. There's also dead weight on the roster that is going to make a league minimum salary, which I believe undercuts the need to make a move right now. I'm not 100% confident in my understanding of all the administrative nonsense, but I believe the deadline this week is only relevant for guys eligible for arb. So if e.g. Kilian is the next guy on the chopping block, there's no incentive to make a move before you need to. I wonder if we see 2-3 arb cuts this week, Madrigal, Wisdom, and Wingenter for instance, and then the teams waits for additional cuts on an as-needed basis. Or do we see one pretty extensive cut of like half a dozen guys.
  21. Bertz
    I'd guess Adbert's decently likely to re-sign on a minor league deal. Brennen's gone gone though, like you're saying probably to a team with an easier outfield to break into.
  22. Bertz
    Nah, the Athletic guys pretty affirmatively kept Fried in bounds
  23. Bertz
    Another feather in Higashioka's cap is his ability to speak Japanese. We know the Cubs really value soft skills from their catchers. With Imanaga on hand and the team already being being linked to two different Japanese SPs in the early going this winter it might be a pretty relevant differentiator.
  24. Bertz
    @enosarris.bsky.social on Bluesky BSKY.APP Tyler Zombro to the Cubs, Passan is reporting. Great hire, imo, more than a few pitchers have sung his praises... Jordan Wicks to start throwing 97 confirmed
  25. Bertz
    I believe Tread is considered ahead of Driveline at this point you just don't hear about it as much because he doesn't spend as much time on Twitter as Kyle Boddy.
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