There's plenty of reason for people to be optimistic. Nothing crazy about that. I have very big doubts, but remain hopeful he can get the job done. obviously, we know very little about the man in terms of contemporary, 11-man football. it could really go either way, and drastically. See, I don't think it will be that drastic either way. I think in the NFL games are won by players, schemes, and playcalling. Most of the players from a 10-win team are back. Granted, the guys on D are a year older, but they actually got younger (going away from Urlacher and Idonije) and guys like Tillman, Jennings, and Briggs are coming off at or near the best seasons of their careers. The dropoff doesn't happen that fast without injury (which obviously could happen). As for schemes and playcalling, that's supposedly where Trestman excels. Granted that's in question because it has been 10 years since he has done either at the NFL level, but it's going to be hard NOT to improve over the last 3 years in both of those aspects. The key will be how much better the playcalling and schemes are on the offensive side of the ball vs. how much worse they are on the defensive side. But the defense is where the "players" still are for this team. I think the dropoff does and can happen that fast. Defense, especially this defense, is about speed and quick reaction. A veteran wide receiver can lose a step and remain effective. Not so a defensive back. I think you are underestimating the coaching change on defense. And the potential for a change in team personality with the move from Lovie to Trestman. Motivation matters in football, as well as scheme. You have three coaching related issues that could play a role in this team actually taking a step back. 1) The move away from Lovie and Rod for a defense that has been all about Lovie and Rod for nearly a decade. And in addition to that, the leadership of the defensive captain is gone. 2) While it may be true that it would be difficult not to improve on the past offense, it is also true that it can take time for an offensive system to start to work. And with this aging defense, time is not on their side. Not to mention, it has the potential to be a make or break year for Cutler, and their best (and to this date only) WR is a volatile dude who could flip out if things look ugly. 3) The move from Lovie to Trestman has the potential to alienate the veterans and cause a riff. Most head coaching moves come from a guy retiring, a team falling apart, or a talented team underperforming. Lovie never figured out the offense, but they never fell apart under him and it would be rough to say they ever underperformed their talent level. While I am all about the belief that baseball is a just a series of one on one matchups that require a sum of the parts situation, football is different. Coaching matters, scheme matters and motivation matters. Again, this is not to say that all these issues are likely to cause a setback, just that they are real challenges this team faces.