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mul21

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Everything posted by mul21

  1. mul21
    Twellman says he's good at yelling at people.
  2. mul21
    A. Don't call people bud. It's condescending and makes you sound like a dick. B. So 2% more than league average with 2 strikes? Yeah, you're a dick who doesn't do research.
  3. mul21
    Thanks for doing the math. I'm still on the "he's been insanely unlucky" train, but the longer it continues, the more I'll look for explanations because he's just so insanely underperforming expectations based on most data points.
  4. mul21
    Why do you say the data doesn't hold up? Lower EV, higher contact rates out of the strike zone, and more fly balls to CF all seem to fit together to explain the big wOBA/xwOBA gap.
  5. mul21
    Fine. 100% of the teams outside the top 9 in team WAR did not win the world series. 100% is not chance level. I win your battle of semantics.
  6. mul21
    This is my gripe with any thoughts on moving Taillon. What's the end game? You're not going to get a high end prospect, close to the majors or not, and you have to replace him in next year's rotation still and at a likely higher cost. None of those things make any sense to me, especially if there's any thought of this team regressing to the mean over the rest of the season and possibly being in contention for a WC spot.
  7. mul21
  8. mul21
    You can't just make up players and expect the Cubs to create them. 🤣
  9. mul21
    I just booked a quick trip to DC to see the Cubs there Labor Day weekend and that will make 24 total and 19 active parks for me. I have Seattle, Anaheim, San Diego, Arizona, Mets, Yankees, Toronto, Philly, Atlanta, TB, and Miami left. Wrigley, SF, Baltimore, Great American, and PNC are probably my current top 5 in no particular order. I went to Arlington and Houston last month and while I appreciate the indoor park so you're not sitting in 100 degree heat most games, indoor baseball kinda sucks.
  10. mul21
    I was thinking about going to this but between 90 degrees and Hendricks pitching I decided against it. Hopefully Kyle makes me regret my decision.
  11. mul21
    That's a weird looking short arm delivery.
  12. mul21
    1. Who's your 3 win pitcher and how much more (on top of covering part of Taillon's salary) is that going to cost? 2. This feels easier said than done, unless you're going to just plan on Assad being that guy. 3. This may be true, but between what we know about how the Cubs run their budget with regard to the LT, i think it's very difficult to justify jettisoning Taillon in favor of hoping you find an equal/better replacement with a similar or lesser budgetary impact.
  13. mul21
    Based on the conclusions drawn here and TT's thoughts, moving him seems like a really dumb idea unless they plan on punting next season completely. You're only getting salary relief for future seasons in one scenario and still have to fill that rotation spot and in the other, you're getting a likely far from sure thing prospect, still paying salary for a guy you don't have, and have to find someone o fill the rotation spot he's leaving. This seems like a fool's errand to me unless someone is gong to pony up a top 25 prospect and even then it may not make much sense depending on their proximity to MLB and position they play.
  14. mul21
    These are Amaya's projections from before the season with his actual numbers at the bottom. He's at minimum a half win worse than the worst projection out there and a full win worse than the best. By the end of the season, that's 1 to 2 WAR worse than projections. I'm not sure how you can blame Jed for a guy just completely falling on his face when there were zero indications it would happen. In addition to that, while the pen has been an absolute mess, the injuries to essentially your top 3 pen arms have to be taken into consideration. Jed doesn't get a complete pass from me, but there's a whole lot that's happened this season that even the Carnac the Magnificent couldn't have seen coming.
  15. mul21
    Only if it includes an MS Paint graphic collage.
  16. mul21
    Both. The talent level wasn't great enough to overcome the underperformance and injuries they've had. I'm not sure there's a way to anticipate either/both happening to the level they have, but when you assemble a team that is designed to win 87 games with a 50th percentile performance across the board and you get a 20th percentile performance from a bunch of guys combined with losing 5 of the top 10 starting pitchers on the depth chart for a significant portion of the season, it's going to cause major problems.
  17. mul21
    Need to get BackToBanks or whatever his name was to send us some 3 way deal options.
  18. mul21
    Are you saying you're in favor of waiting this team out and hoping for positive regression to the mean? The math certainly says that's probably the right move based on career histories, but between the injuries and luck this year, I'm not sure I have faith in staying the course.
  19. mul21
    Underwood seems like he's pretty adept at getting guys to mesh quickly. They had what, 2 guys come back last year that had played major minutes previously in Hawkins and Shannon?
  20. mul21
    Steele should have been pissed at himself if it was about the rundown. He got it off to a bad start by not making the runner commit to a base sooner and it got the whole sequence out of whack.
  21. mul21
    I think this is really underselling the talent on the team. Something is definitely wrong with them right now, but this is a team full of guys who have put up 3-5 WAR seasons who haven't all just suddenly gotten old or forgotten how to play. They have to regress to the mean at some point.
  22. mul21
    I think we go back to the fly balls to center and opposite fields data and the answer lies there.
  23. mul21
    I'm heading to the Bay Area tomorrow morning and will be in the building for the game tomorrow night, so hopefully they can manage to minimize the suckage this week.
  24. mul21
    The 95+ part is really the big takeaway I have from this season. I know that it's just harder to hit those pitches, but man is it a glaring deficiency with this team and there are only going to continue to be more of those guys at time goes on.
  25. mul21

    Tomas Nido

    mul21 replied to mul21's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    Apparently I should just be in charge here. 😂
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