2023 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread

1 minute ago, Tim said:

Like Ed Howard?

When I just Googled "Ed Howard floor", this was a blurb from literally the first article that came up.

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Howard is the highest floor prep shortstop to come on the scene in a long time

 

1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

When I just Googled "Ed Howard floor", this was a blurb from literally the first article that came up.

 

They were wrong

3 minutes ago, Tim said:

They were wrong

No argument there on whether some of the guys who were seen as high floor picks have actually seen that high floor materialize.  I mean, wasn't Brett Jackson supposed to be the ultimate high floor type prospect?  That floor collapsed.

1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

No argument there on whether some of the guys who were seen as high floor picks have actually seen that high floor materialize.  I mean, wasn't Brett Jackson supposed to be the ultimate high floor type prospect?  That floor collapsed.

I wouldn't characterize Horton or Jensen as "high-floor" guys, either. That's 1/2 to 3/4 of the picks over the past 4 years. Wicks is the only real "high floor" guy during that time.

Everyone join the prayer circle to get Cam Johnson in the system.

People complained about Happ and Schwarber being high floor players too, especially with modern player development it's a fairly meaningless distinction.  I get that it's always fun to dream on blank slate high schoolers who have a 1% chance of being a superstar, but when the Happs and Hoerners of the world can reach 4+ win seasons too, it makes the outrage they didn't take a lottery ticket ring hollow.

6 minutes ago, Hrubes20 said:

Everyone join the prayer circle to get Cam Johnson in the system.

Curses to all of you!

Jaxon Wiggins, RHP, Arkansas - had TJS

Just now, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Jaxon Wiggins, RHP, Arkansas - had TJS

I'm intrigued. 6'6" with a mid to upper 90's fastball.

I never got the Ed Howard pick.  That pick was so different than any pick in the Theo era.  It almost felt like they let emotions dictate that pick over what they usually go for in going for the "he's from Chicago" story

Edited July 10, 2023 by CubsLeaf

Sounds like the stuff is there, they just need to teach him how to get it near the plate.

He went to the combine so Wiggins is guaranteed 75% of slot, so the most they can save is $275,250.

It appears Wiggins just had his TJS in February, so we won't be seeing anything out of him for awhile.

2 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

He went to the combine so Wiggins is guaranteed 75% of slot, so the most they can save is $275,250.

Well horsefeathers. That moves that pick into “hate” territory. Gross.

I mean, I can't hate on this pick for being a lottery ticket after wanting the Cubs to take a big swing at 13.

A guy with possible plus plus stuff who doesn't have much mileage and just got TJS out of the way? That's about as big of a swing as you can take with this pick.

I'm still curious what was being offered for Contreras at the deadline last year.  It had to be better than the #68 pick they got for compensation.  I'd rather take on a prospect or two that you've seen play in MILB over a dart throw.

9 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

It appears Wiggins just had his TJS in February, so we won't be seeing anything out of him for awhile.

Not like the Cubs let most of their drafted pitchers into box score games the year they’re drafted so he won’t be *too* far behind.

 

Jaxon Wiggins rankings:

Athletic - 93

Baseball America - 85

ESPN - 115

Fangraphs - Unranked but they only went to 64 (he was their 15th best college pitcher after the top 64 with a 40 FV)

MLB Pipeline - 103

Athletic:

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Wiggins was probably going in the top two rounds before his elbow blew a few weeks before Opening Day. When healthy, he’d hit 100 mph as a starter with a hammer slider and plenty of changeup, but with below-average command and control, including 43 walks in 66 innings as a sophomore. The fastball was kind of true, so it didn’t dominate like the velocity might indicate it would. He showed an extremely fast arm and got on top of the ball well from a 3/4 slot, giving depth to the slider and devastating fade to the changeup when he finished it. Nothing was consistent here, especially not that third pitch, and he barely threw 61 percent of his pitches for strikes — even with the added benefit of hitters whiffing on a lot of pitches out of the zone. There was already relief risk before he got hurt.

 

BA:

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85. Jaxon Wiggins

RHP

Ht: 6'6" | Wt: 225 | B-T: R-R

 

School: Arkansas Source: 4YR

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted 
Age At Draft: 21.8 
BA Grade:50/Extreme
Tools:Fastball: 60. Slider: 55. Curveball: 45. Changeup: 50. Control: 35. 

Wiggins was a projectable prep pitcher with a big frame, solid fastball and advanced feel for a changeup, but took a few steps forward in the first two seasons of his collegiate career at Arkansas. After sitting in the low 90s in high school, Wiggins sat in the 94-96 mph range in 2021 and touched triple-digits. He posted a 5.09 ERA over 23 innings with 28 strikeouts (11.0 K/9) and 14 walks (5.5 BB/9) during his freshman campaign, mostly out of the bullpen. Moving into a full-time starting role in 2022, Wiggins continued to show loud stuff and erratic control, with 82 strikeouts and 43 walks in 66 innings. He wasn’t able to continue his development in 2023, as a Tommy John surgery before the season kept him off the field and will make him a complicated prospect for teams to evaluate given his impressive stuff and frame, and spotty track record of strikes. When healthy, Wiggins threw a fastball that sat 94-95 mph and touched 97 in a starting role, with impressive vertical break and extension to go with it thanks to his 6-foot-6, 225-pound frame. While he has mostly pitched off that fastball, he also mixes in a mid-80s slider that is still developing, a changeup in the upper 80s with solid tumble and an infrequently thrown 12-to-6 curveball.

 

ESPN:

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115. Jaxon Wiggins (21.8), RHP, Arkansas

Missed season due to TJ surgery and has athleticism and electric stuff, heater regularly in the upper-90's, but command hasn't come as expected yet.

 

FG:

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Wiggins was a lights out reliever as a freshman but struggled as a starter in his second year. Things were so bad at the very end of 2022 that the industry wondered if he was healthy. After some rest and a great looking fall, Wiggins' elbow barked and he had Tommy John not long before the start of the 2023 season. He already had significant relief risk prior to the injury and this likely pushes things a little further in that direction. There's still potential impact here, it's just on a tape delay as Wiggins rehabs into 2024.

 

MLB Pipeline: 

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Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 40 | Overall: 45

Wiggins has flashed first-round stuff since his days as an Oklahoma high schooler and looked ready to take a step forward after pitching for the U.S. collegiate national team following his freshman season in 2021. Instead, he struggled as Arkansas' Sunday starter last year and barely pitched in the last month while giving up 12 runs in his final five innings. He looked like a frontline starter this fall but his elbow began bothering him in January, and he'll miss the entire season after getting diagnosed with a torn ligament that required Tommy John surgery. 

A healthy Wiggins sported some of the best fastball velocity in college baseball, sitting at 94-97 mph and peaking at 99, though his heater can get straight and is vulnerable when he doesn't locate it well. He can get swings and misses with a mid-80s slider that reaches 89 mph with two-plane depth, as well as a mid-80s changeup with fade and tumble. He toys with a downer upper-70s curveball as well. 

The key for Wiggins is control and command, and he has the athleticism and delivery to be average in both regards. But he has a history of falling behind in the count, not having the trust to land his secondary pitches and overthrowing his fastball. His encouraging progress this fall had scouts hoping he was on the upswing before learning the Razorbacks would lose their projected ace for the second straight year, with a similar fate befalling Peyton Pallette in 2022.

 

You can see where Shaw and Wiggins will slot in in the Fangraphs rankings for the Cubs' system:

Shaw is a 45 FV so he'll be somewhere between 7 and 13 (accounting for the fact Hayden Wesneski and Javier Assad were graded at 50 and 45 respectively and both have graduated).

Wiggins is a 40 FV so he'd be somewhere between 23 and 35 (accounting for Miles Mastrobuoni's graduation).