tommorow by noon

[Gunned]

THe most certainly steals bases. 46 last year.

 

Sorry I didn't finsih my thought. He doesn't steal effetively enough to warrent the attempts so.....

 

Don't overvalue the benefit of a leadoff hitter.

 

The baseline for effectively stealing bases is about 75 percent. Furcal is consistently in the low to mid 80s. He's EXTREMELY effective at base-stealing.

[XZero771679666304]

THe most certainly steals bases. 46 last year.

 

Sorry I didn't finsih my thought. He doesn't steal effetively enough to warrent the attempts so.....

 

Don't overvalue the benefit of a leadoff hitter.

 

His career SB percentage is over 80%, so I reject your assertion that he isn't successful enough to warrant the attempts.

[CubinNY]

Furcal's OBP was in the top 5 of NL leadoff hitters. .

 

?

[Diffusion]

Rafael Furcal led off an inning 287 times last year, and reached 95 times. That's a .331 on-base percentage. He had 689 plate appearances in total. That means that just 13.788% of Furcal's plate appearances saw him get on in front of the heart of the order leading off an inning. Edited December 4, 2005 by Diffusion

[Blueheart05]

He most certainly steals bases. 46 last year.

 

Sorry I didn't finsih my thought. He doesn't steal effetively enough to warrent the attempts so.....

 

Don't overvalue the benefit of a leadoff hitter.

 

I'm not overvaluing him as a leadoff hitter. He can get on base and steal as the third hitter in an inning just as easily as he can to start off an inning. I am curious why you say he doesn't steal effectively?

 

Last year he stole 46 and was caught 10 times, in 2004 he stole 29 out of 35, and the year before that it was 25 out of 27. I don't know the league SB averages but that seems like a high precentage to me.

[UK1679666180]

Higher than I expected, I assumed between 30-35%.

[Gunned]

He most certainly steals bases. 46 last year.

 

Sorry I didn't finsih my thought. He doesn't steal effetively enough to warrent the attempts so.....

 

Don't overvalue the benefit of a leadoff hitter.

 

I'm not overvaluing him as a leadoff hitter. He can get on base and steal as the third hitter in an inning just as easily as he can to start off an inning. I am curious why you say he doesn't steal effectively?

 

Last year he stole 46 and was caught 10 times, in 2004 he stole 29 out of 35, and the year before that it was 25 out of 27. I don't know the league SB averages but that seems like a high precentage to me.

 

Something tells me he has no response for the stolen base argument.

[Diffusion]

Higher than I expected, I assumed between 30-35%.

 

I don't know if Furcal is a typical example, or how much of that had to do with the Braves' lineup and its construction.

 

A few other example. Juan Pierre had 719 plate appearances last year. 292 saw him lead-off an inning. Leading off an inning he had a .336 on-base percentage. That meant just 13.630% of his plate appearances saw him lead off the inning in front of the heart of the order.

[Diffusion]

Higher than I expected, I assumed between 30-35%.

 

Higher than I expected too, to be honest.

[CubinNY]

I could be off b/c I'm trimming a tree and drinking a few beers but Furcal is at

 

189/53 in the SB category that is roughly the break even point. Therefore his speed is niether a + or a -. No?

 

If the Cubs sign him for 13 mill/year they will be paying him almost as much as what they paid Sammy. Can he carry the team? Would the money be better off spent elsewhere where the Cubs actually have a need?

[CubinNY]

I could be off b/c I'm trimming a tree and drinking a few beers but Furcal is at

 

189/53 in the SB category that is roughly the break even point. Therefore his speed is niether a + or a -. No?

 

If the Cubs sign him for 13 mill/year they will be paying him almost as much as what they paid Sammy. Can he carry the team? Would the money be better off spent elsewhere where the Cubs actually have a need?

 

bump. Just in case it gets missed.

[CUBZ99]

Higher than I expected, I assumed between 30-35%.

 

I don't know if Furcal is a typical example, or how much of that had to do with the Braves' lineup and its construction.

 

A few other example. Juan Pierre had 719 plate appearances last year. 292 saw him lead-off an inning. Leading off an inning he had a .336 on-base percentage. That meant just 13.630% of his plate appearances saw him lead off the inning in front of the heart of the order.

 

I think you would have to look at it from more than just leading off the inning. Sure the leadoff hitter may only leadoff the inning 13.63%, but it is also true that he comes up often needing to extend the inning, in order to bring up the middle of the order.

 

Only 4 other leadoff hitters in the NL got on base more than Furcal last year and if you look at the second half when he wasn't injured, he was getting on base at a .397 clip (according to O'Brien from AJC).

[Blueheart05]

Higher than I expected, I assumed between 30-35%.

 

I don't know if Furcal is a typical example, or how much of that had to do with the Braves' lineup and its construction.

 

A few other example. Juan Pierre had 719 plate appearances last year. 292 saw him lead-off an inning. Leading off an inning he had a .336 on-base percentage. That meant just 13.630% of his plate appearances saw him lead off the inning in front of the heart of the order.

 

Furcal is better than Pierre as a base stealer and, arguably, in all facets of the game.

Edited December 4, 2005 by Blueheart05

[Guest]

Higher than I expected, I assumed between 30-35%.

 

Higher than I expected too, to be honest.

Well, somewhere around 20-25% would be automatic from the 1st AB of the game. I think the rest are mostly due to the fact that leadoff hitters hit "behind" the batters who make the most outs of anybody in the lineup. The more often the person in front of you makes outs the greater your chances of leading off the next inning.

 

Without looking at the numbers, I'd guess that NL leadoff hitters lead off innings more often than their AL counterparts.

Edited December 4, 2005 by Anonymous

[Guancous]

I don't think that Furcal is worth $13 million + a year. That being said, the Cubs along with every other team, get an extra $15 million from the inevitable sales of the Nationals. They also get added revenues from internet sales. That doesn't count the money from the new seats or the Jimmy Buffett concerts or cutting the payrolls at the L.A. Times and other Tribune Company holdings.

[XZero771679666304]

I could be off b/c I'm trimming a tree and drinking a few beers but Furcal is at

 

189/53 in the SB category that is roughly the break even point. Therefore his speed is niether a + or a -. No?

 

If the Cubs sign him for 13 mill/year they will be paying him almost as much as what they paid Sammy. Can he carry the team? Would the money be better off spent elsewhere where the Cubs actually have a need?

 

bump. Just in case it gets missed.

 

Everything I hav eheard says that the break even point is at 75%, and Furcal is usually 7-10% higher than that. He is an effective basestealer.

 

Among the top 10 basestealers in MLB in 2005, only Jimmy Rollins and Carl Crawford had higher success rates, and Furcal's 82% was his lowest in a few years.

[Blueheart05]

I could be off b/c I'm trimming a tree and drinking a few beers but Furcal is at

 

189/53 in the SB category that is roughly the break even point. Therefore his speed is niether a + or a -. No?

 

If the Cubs sign him for 13 mill/year they will be paying him almost as much as what they paid Sammy. Can he carry the team? Would the money be better off spent elsewhere where the Cubs actually have a need?

 

Player values have appreciated greatly since Sammy was paid 13MM by the Cubs and I whether or not the money could be spent better elsewhere is subjective. If in fact Hendry gets him for that price, and he has a repeat of his 2005 numbers, the Cubs will be happy because that is what they are paying for (actually, they are paying for a culmination of his last three years).

[Diffusion]

Okay, some more detailed numbers for NL leadoff hitters in 2005...

 

% of PA's in which they led off innings (% of PA's in which they led off inning and got on-base)

 

Clark, 43.620% (16.320%)

Rollins, 43.443% (13.525%)

Counsell, 41.791% (13.731%)

Furcal, 41.655% (13.788%)

Reyes, 41.610% (11.869%)

Wilkerson, 40.696% (11.800%)

*Pierre, 40.612% (13.630%)

Eckstein, 40.252% (13.745%)

*Taveras, 39.055% (13.071%)

 

* Denotes that player spent enough time hitting down the order that it's perhaps worth noting

[UK1679666180]

Higher than I expected, I assumed between 30-35%.

 

I don't know if Furcal is a typical example, or how much of that had to do with the Braves' lineup and its construction.

 

A few other example. Juan Pierre had 719 plate appearances last year. 292 saw him lead-off an inning. Leading off an inning he had a .336 on-base percentage. That meant just 13.630% of his plate appearances saw him lead off the inning in front of the heart of the order.

 

That's still about 40% for Pierre, which is up there.

 

To put it in perspective as I was looking Michaels' numbers. (not much of a surprise I was looking at his numbers)

 

He had 22 ABs hitting 1st in the lineup (7 starts) so most of his ABs were hitting 2nd in the lineup.

 

80 of his 343 PAs were leading off an inning, approx. 23%. Of those 80 PAs, he reached 41.2% of the time and approx. 9.6% of the time he was on to start the inning.

 

Put that with Furcal or Pierre's frequency of leading off an inning and the 13% of Pierre and Furcal it jumps to 17% for Michaels. Basically,

 

Michaels would have been on base 20 more times to start an inning if he rec'd the same of PAs as Furcal/Pierre over the course of the season.

[Jehrico]

 

I'm not sure if you meant me but I wasn't jumping all over anyone. I was asking a legitimate question. In fact, his/her post got me thinking so much that I looked up Furcal's stat's to see if I had missed something. I think he/she was probably thinking about Pierre's SB numbers but that's just a guess.

 

No, I wasn't referring to you.

 

Actually, I think he was thinking about Luis Castillo. He's a speedy guy that fits the top-of-the-order-base-stealing mold, but he hasn't stolen much in the last few years. Pierre's not bad about stealing. He had a down year a couple of years ago (I think he was playing with an injury), but if you took that year out, he's over 75 percent too. Castillo's just horrible at stealing bases (52sb/30cs the last three years combined).

[CubinNY]

For his career Frucal has a 78% SB/CS.

 

If one wants to say the break even rate is 75% then his speed is slighlty valuable as it relates to stolen bases. If one wants to use 80% he has negative value, as it relates to stolen bases. So, perhaps his speed is marginally usefull.

 

Will his stolen base rate be this good in 4 or 5 years at the end of his contract?

 

The Cubs have Cedeno. People get upset that the Cubs never develop homegrown talent. Well they have one in Cedeno. What is Hendry doing? Efectively making Cedeno redundent. Before I hear the 2nd base stuff, you should know RONNY HAS NOT PLAYED ONE INNING AT 2ND BASE THIS WINTER.

 

I ask again is Furcal worth 13 million dollars?

[Diffusion]

Same stats for AL leadoff hitters in 2005...

 

Podsednik, 41.901% (15.669%)

Roberts, 40.938% (14.531%)

Jeter, 38.697% (15.824%)

*Sizemore, 38.385% (13.314%)

Damon, 38.227% (13.953%)

Ichiro, 37.618% (12.179%)

Stewart, 36.728% (11.853%)

Figgins, 36.667% (13.472%)

[Diffusion]

Higher than I expected, I assumed between 30-35%.

 

I don't know if Furcal is a typical example, or how much of that had to do with the Braves' lineup and its construction.

 

A few other example. Juan Pierre had 719 plate appearances last year. 292 saw him lead-off an inning. Leading off an inning he had a .336 on-base percentage. That meant just 13.630% of his plate appearances saw him lead off the inning by getting on base in front of the heart of the order.

 

I think you would have to look at it from more than just leading off the inning. Sure the leadoff hitter may only leadoff the inning 13.63%, but it is also true that he comes up often needing to extend the inning, in order to bring up the middle of the order.

 

So then you're looking at him not being a leadoff hitter, but just another hitter from whom you're looking for a high OBP. Which should be every hitter. So you're looking for just another hitter.

 

So, my point, in short: when looking for a good leadoff hitter, look for a good hitter with a good OBP, because he's only going to spend about 11-16% of his PAs leading off an inning by getting on base in front of the middle of the order.

[oldcubsfan]

For his career Frucal has a 78% SB/CS.

 

If one wants to say the break even rate is 75% then his speed is slighlty valuable as it relates to stolen bases. If one wants to use 80% he has negative value, as it relates to stolen bases. So, perhaps his speed is marginally usefull.

 

Will his stolen base rate be this good in 4 or 5 years at the end of his contract?

 

The Cubs have Cedeno. People get upset that the Cubs never develop homegrown talent. Well they have one in Cedeno. What is Hendry doing? Efectively making Cedeno redundent. Before I hear the 2nd base stuff, you should know RONNY HAS NOT PLAYED ONE INNING AT 2ND BASE THIS WINTER.

 

I ask again is Furcal worth 13 million dollars?

For the Cubs to solve problems, he is worth a good amount, whatever that turns out to be. Your selective use of stats is entertaining, but not complete.

[CubinNY]

For his career Frucal has a 78% SB/CS.

 

If one wants to say the break even rate is 75% then his speed is slighlty valuable as it relates to stolen bases. If one wants to use 80% he has negative value, as it relates to stolen bases. So, perhaps his speed is marginally usefull.

 

Will his stolen base rate be this good in 4 or 5 years at the end of his contract?

 

The Cubs have Cedeno. People get upset that the Cubs never develop homegrown talent. Well they have one in Cedeno. What is Hendry doing? Efectively making Cedeno redundent. Before I hear the 2nd base stuff, you should know RONNY HAS NOT PLAYED ONE INNING AT 2ND BASE THIS WINTER.

 

I ask again is Furcal worth 13 million dollars?

For the Cubs to solve problems, he is worth a good amount, whatever that turns out to be. Your selective use of stats is entertaining, but not complete.

 

Help me see the light then.

 

How much is a good amount?

Select some stats that shows he is worth 13m a year?

 

Throw me a freaking bone