Cubs make formal offer to Furcal

[ConstableRabbit]

Not trying to start an argument, but what is the definition of "overpaying" in the face of the market equilibrium price?

 

If $10 mil/year for 5 years is overpaying, what is a fair price for Furcal?

 

To me overpaying is paying more money to a single player than the franchise can afford. This means paying more than the player contributes to winning, spending too much when comparable cheaper options are available, weakening other positions by spending too much on one position. Market value is not necessarily relevant. If you need Furcal to win the WS, then you should spend as much as you can and need to, to get him regardless of market value. If he only adds 3 wins to a 77 win team, then perhaps he isn't worth as much.

 

So more like salary as a percentage of a team's payroll while factoring in other needs to be fufilled.

If the Yankees signed Furcal for $60 mil over five years, it wouldn't be overpaying, because technically, they would still have payroll room to fill in other holes.

 

Fair enough.

[cubbyvirus00]

I want Furcal not only because we NEED a legit leadoff hitter, but because he's Dustyproof.

 

Dusty won't give him many days off for Neifi. Whereas if Cedeno is playing at SS, Dusty would sub him an aweful lot.

[jmajew]

I hate to say this but if Orlando Cabrera and Jimmy Rollins each make 8 mil a year one has to assume that Furcal is worth about 9 mil a year. If i were the Cubs I start the bidding at 4/34 and work from there. Realistically i think the he will get a 4 year 36 million dollar deal with a fifth year team option at 12 mil with a 4 million buyout.

[XZero771679666304]

I just hope he takes it. And I don't think 5/50 is so bad, overspending yet, but honestly we NEED to. I mean how much did we loose on Nomar last year about 5 mil? You have to consider Furcal is a very good lead-off (yes not great), very good defensive SS who is very unlikely to get hurt. Who puts up very good #'s.

In order to assure Neifi isn't starting, I'd be willing to overpay a little bit. 5/50 is doable for someone who isn't injury prone, but is consistant like he is.

 

How is Furcal consistent? In 2005, his contract year, his stolen bases went way up and his errors went way down, otherwise he wouldn't be getting near the type of offers he's getting now.

 

Furcal's OBP the past three years: .352, .344, .348. His SLG: .443, .414, .429. His SB%: 93%, 83%, 82%. His BB and K are also nearly identical over the past three years. In fact, his SB and Errors are the only two stats that are at all out of line with his norms.

 

Last year wan't even his best in the past few years, 2003 was. Furcal is pretty darn consistent.

[WrigleyinEngland]

I want Furcal in the hope that hendry will then give up on rubber arm in CF and look at a guy like Bradley to hit in the #2 hole.

[WrigleyinEngland]

so thinking about the figures would it not be worth the 5/50 if we got bradley for next to nothing rather than a 1 year rental of JP in CF?.

[frostwyrm]

I just hope he takes it. And I don't think 5/50 is so bad, overspending yet, but honestly we NEED to. I mean how much did we loose on Nomar last year about 5 mil? You have to consider Furcal is a very good lead-off (yes not great), very good defensive SS who is very unlikely to get hurt. Who puts up very good #'s.

In order to assure Neifi isn't starting, I'd be willing to overpay a little bit. 5/50 is doable for someone who isn't injury prone, but is consistant like he is.

 

How is Furcal consistent? In 2005, his contract year, his stolen bases went way up and his errors went way down, otherwise he wouldn't be getting near the type of offers he's getting now.

 

Furcal's OBP the past three years: .352, .344, .348. His SLG: .443, .414, .429. His SB%: 93%, 83%, 82%. His BB and K are also nearly identical over the past three years. In fact, his SB and Errors are the only two stats that are at all out of line with his norms.

 

Last year wan't even his best in the past few years, 2003 was. Furcal is pretty darn consistent.

 

Yeah I know that stuff, but it's his 2005 SB and E numbers that have convinced people he's a defensive and base-stealing wizard, and an elite lead-off hitter. Take away those two numbers and he wouldn't be getting these ridiculous offers.

[XZero771679666304]

I just hope he takes it. And I don't think 5/50 is so bad, overspending yet, but honestly we NEED to. I mean how much did we loose on Nomar last year about 5 mil? You have to consider Furcal is a very good lead-off (yes not great), very good defensive SS who is very unlikely to get hurt. Who puts up very good #'s.

In order to assure Neifi isn't starting, I'd be willing to overpay a little bit. 5/50 is doable for someone who isn't injury prone, but is consistant like he is.

 

How is Furcal consistent? In 2005, his contract year, his stolen bases went way up and his errors went way down, otherwise he wouldn't be getting near the type of offers he's getting now.

 

Furcal's OBP the past three years: .352, .344, .348. His SLG: .443, .414, .429. His SB%: 93%, 83%, 82%. His BB and K are also nearly identical over the past three years. In fact, his SB and Errors are the only two stats that are at all out of line with his norms.

 

Last year wan't even his best in the past few years, 2003 was. Furcal is pretty darn consistent.

 

Yeah I know that stuff, but it's his 2005 SB and E numbers that have convinced people he's a defensive and base-stealing wizard, and an elite lead-off hitter. Take away those two numbers and he wouldn't be getting these ridiculous offers.

Unfortunately, I think the offers he is getting are fair given recent contracts for Renteria, etc. He's really only being offered slightly over market value, even if that value is high.

[fearthecubs]

I have absolutely no problem with a 5/55 frontloaded deal.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I just hope he takes it. And I don't think 5/50 is so bad, overspending yet, but honestly we NEED to. I mean how much did we loose on Nomar last year about 5 mil? You have to consider Furcal is a very good lead-off (yes not great), very good defensive SS who is very unlikely to get hurt. Who puts up very good #'s.

In order to assure Neifi isn't starting, I'd be willing to overpay a little bit. 5/50 is doable for someone who isn't injury prone, but is consistant like he is.

 

How is Furcal consistent? In 2005, his contract year, his stolen bases went way up and his errors went way down, otherwise he wouldn't be getting near the type of offers he's getting now.

 

Furcal's OBP the past three years: .352, .344, .348. His SLG: .443, .414, .429. His SB%: 93%, 83%, 82%. His BB and K are also nearly identical over the past three years. In fact, his SB and Errors are the only two stats that are at all out of line with his norms.

 

Last year wan't even his best in the past few years, 2003 was. Furcal is pretty darn consistent.

 

Yeah I know that stuff, but it's his 2005 SB and E numbers that have convinced people he's a defensive and base-stealing wizard, and an elite lead-off hitter. Take away those two numbers and he wouldn't be getting these ridiculous offers.

Unfortunately, I think the offers he is getting are fair given recent contracts for Renteria, etc. He's really only being offered slightly over market value, even if that value is high.

 

Fair? Those are widely considered crappy deals. You can talk about marktet prices if you want, but there are multiple markets. there's the free agent market and the trade market. the trade market is pretty reasonable compared to the FA market right now.

[TrueBlueCubFan]

I didn't see this posted anywhere:

 

By Paul Sullivan

Tribune staff reporter

 

November 29, 2005

 

 

The Cubs made one last push for free-agent shortstop Rafael Furcal over the weekend and expect a final decision before the end of next week's winter meetings in Dallas.

 

General manager Jim Hendry met with Furcal at his Georgia home on Sunday, hoping to convince him Chicago would be a perfect destination.

 

 

Both Hendry and Furcal's agent, Paul Kinzer, declined to comment on the meeting.

 

The Cubs and Atlanta are considered the two main suitors for Furcal, with the New York Mets reportedly dropping out of the picture in the last week to focus on other areas. Since the final offers may be similar in value—around $10 million per season for four or five years—Furcal's future may ultimately come down to where he feels most comfortable playing.

 

Furcal's affinity for Braves manager Bobby Cox could be a deciding factor, though he's also close friends with Cubs shortstop Neifi Perez and third baseman Aramis Ramirez, who have been lobbying on the Cubs' behalf for the last month.

 

The Cubs are expected to announce the signing of free-agent utilityman John Mabry within the next day or two, and will bring recently signed reliever Bob Howry to Wrigley Field for a news conference on Tuesday.

 

Howry, who signed a three-year, $12 million deal last week, gives the Cubs another veteran setup man for closer Ryan Dempster. Hendry has spent $23 million thus far to sign Howry and left-hander Scott Eyre, shoring up a young and inexperienced bullpen that was inconsistent last season.

 

The Cubs may have overpaid in their pursuit of relief help, but after the bullpen failures of the last three seasons, Hendry had few options. He targeted two of the most effective setup men in '05 and reeled both of them in. Eyre led the National League with 32 holds, while Howry ranked third in the American League with 29 holds.

 

Mabry, 35, hit .240 with eight home runs and 32 RBIs with St. Louis last season and can play both corner outfield spots, along with first base and third base. The left-handed-hitting veteran has a .269 career average and is expected to assume the role Todd Hollandsworth excelled in during the first half of '04, before incurring a season-ending leg injury.

 

The Cubs are also considered the front-runner for Florida center fielder Juan Pierre if the Marlins shop him at the winter meetings, as expected, and they'll also pursue a right fielder, likely through a trade.

 

The Cubs have mild interest in free-agent outfielder Preston Wilson, whom they pursued at the trading deadline before acquiring and dumping Matt Lawton.

 

In other news, the Los Angeles Dodgers were given permission to talk to Grady Little about their managerial vacancy. Little has been a minor-league instructor and an assistant to Hendry the last two seasons after being let go by Boston after the Red Sox lost to the Yankees in the 2003 ALCS.

[XZero771679666304]

I just hope he takes it. And I don't think 5/50 is so bad, overspending yet, but honestly we NEED to. I mean how much did we loose on Nomar last year about 5 mil? You have to consider Furcal is a very good lead-off (yes not great), very good defensive SS who is very unlikely to get hurt. Who puts up very good #'s.

In order to assure Neifi isn't starting, I'd be willing to overpay a little bit. 5/50 is doable for someone who isn't injury prone, but is consistant like he is.

 

How is Furcal consistent? In 2005, his contract year, his stolen bases went way up and his errors went way down, otherwise he wouldn't be getting near the type of offers he's getting now.

 

Furcal's OBP the past three years: .352, .344, .348. His SLG: .443, .414, .429. His SB%: 93%, 83%, 82%. His BB and K are also nearly identical over the past three years. In fact, his SB and Errors are the only two stats that are at all out of line with his norms.

 

Last year wan't even his best in the past few years, 2003 was. Furcal is pretty darn consistent.

 

Yeah I know that stuff, but it's his 2005 SB and E numbers that have convinced people he's a defensive and base-stealing wizard, and an elite lead-off hitter. Take away those two numbers and he wouldn't be getting these ridiculous offers.

Unfortunately, I think the offers he is getting are fair given recent contracts for Renteria, etc. He's really only being offered slightly over market value, even if that value is high.

 

Fair? Those are widely considered crappy deals. You can talk about marktet prices if you want, but there are multiple markets. there's the free agent market and the trade market. the trade market is pretty reasonable compared to the FA market right now.

 

Let's put it this way: If Renteria got 10 million per, there's no way Furcal's agent is going to allow him to sign for less. My point is not that Furcal is the best option, but that the contracts being offered him can hardly be considered surprising.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I just hope he takes it. And I don't think 5/50 is so bad, overspending yet, but honestly we NEED to. I mean how much did we loose on Nomar last year about 5 mil? You have to consider Furcal is a very good lead-off (yes not great), very good defensive SS who is very unlikely to get hurt. Who puts up very good #'s.

In order to assure Neifi isn't starting, I'd be willing to overpay a little bit. 5/50 is doable for someone who isn't injury prone, but is consistant like he is.

 

How is Furcal consistent? In 2005, his contract year, his stolen bases went way up and his errors went way down, otherwise he wouldn't be getting near the type of offers he's getting now.

 

Furcal's OBP the past three years: .352, .344, .348. His SLG: .443, .414, .429. His SB%: 93%, 83%, 82%. His BB and K are also nearly identical over the past three years. In fact, his SB and Errors are the only two stats that are at all out of line with his norms.

 

Last year wan't even his best in the past few years, 2003 was. Furcal is pretty darn consistent.

 

Yeah I know that stuff, but it's his 2005 SB and E numbers that have convinced people he's a defensive and base-stealing wizard, and an elite lead-off hitter. Take away those two numbers and he wouldn't be getting these ridiculous offers.

Unfortunately, I think the offers he is getting are fair given recent contracts for Renteria, etc. He's really only being offered slightly over market value, even if that value is high.

 

Fair? Those are widely considered crappy deals. You can talk about marktet prices if you want, but there are multiple markets. there's the free agent market and the trade market. the trade market is pretty reasonable compared to the FA market right now.

 

Let's put it this way: If Renteria got 10 million per, there's no way Furcal's agent is going to allow him to sign for less. My point is not that Furcal is the best option, but that the contracts being offered him can hardly be considered surprising.

 

Fair enough. It's still a poor way to go. Hendry isn't all hot and bothered by Giles b/c he thinks the bidding will get out of hand. What makes SS more important than the OF in terms of overbidding?

[TrueBlueCubFan]

I just hope he takes it. And I don't think 5/50 is so bad, overspending yet, but honestly we NEED to. I mean how much did we loose on Nomar last year about 5 mil? You have to consider Furcal is a very good lead-off (yes not great), very good defensive SS who is very unlikely to get hurt. Who puts up very good #'s.

In order to assure Neifi isn't starting, I'd be willing to overpay a little bit. 5/50 is doable for someone who isn't injury prone, but is consistant like he is.

 

How is Furcal consistent? In 2005, his contract year, his stolen bases went way up and his errors went way down, otherwise he wouldn't be getting near the type of offers he's getting now.

 

Furcal's OBP the past three years: .352, .344, .348. His SLG: .443, .414, .429. His SB%: 93%, 83%, 82%. His BB and K are also nearly identical over the past three years. In fact, his SB and Errors are the only two stats that are at all out of line with his norms.

 

Last year wan't even his best in the past few years, 2003 was. Furcal is pretty darn consistent.

 

Yeah I know that stuff, but it's his 2005 SB and E numbers that have convinced people he's a defensive and base-stealing wizard, and an elite lead-off hitter. Take away those two numbers and he wouldn't be getting these ridiculous offers.

Unfortunately, I think the offers he is getting are fair given recent contracts for Renteria, etc. He's really only being offered slightly over market value, even if that value is high.

 

Fair? Those are widely considered crappy deals. You can talk about marktet prices if you want, but there are multiple markets. there's the free agent market and the trade market. the trade market is pretty reasonable compared to the FA market right now.

 

Let's put it this way: If Renteria got 10 million per, there's no way Furcal's agent is going to allow him to sign for less. My point is not that Furcal is the best option, but that the contracts being offered him can hardly be considered surprising.

 

Fair enough. It's still a poor way to go. Hendry isn't all hot and bothered by Giles b/c he thinks the bidding will get out of hand. What makes SS more important than the OF in terms of overbidding?

Isn't the term "overbidding" used, based on opinion? My point is you don't really know if it's overbidding, unless you know all the bids that have been presented. I doubt every formal bid that goes to a FA & their clients is public information.

[Bull]

Isn't the term "overbidding" used, based on opinion? My point is you don't really know if it's overbidding, unless you know all the bids that have been presented. I doubt every formal bid that goes to a FA & their clients is public information.

 

I'll go a step further and say that often GM's don't know what other gm's bid on players. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if they share that info, isn't it collusion? (Mark Grudzelaniek, anyone?)

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I just hope he takes it. And I don't think 5/50 is so bad, overspending yet, but honestly we NEED to. I mean how much did we loose on Nomar last year about 5 mil? You have to consider Furcal is a very good lead-off (yes not great), very good defensive SS who is very unlikely to get hurt. Who puts up very good #'s.

In order to assure Neifi isn't starting, I'd be willing to overpay a little bit. 5/50 is doable for someone who isn't injury prone, but is consistant like he is.

 

How is Furcal consistent? In 2005, his contract year, his stolen bases went way up and his errors went way down, otherwise he wouldn't be getting near the type of offers he's getting now.

 

Furcal's OBP the past three years: .352, .344, .348. His SLG: .443, .414, .429. His SB%: 93%, 83%, 82%. His BB and K are also nearly identical over the past three years. In fact, his SB and Errors are the only two stats that are at all out of line with his norms.

 

Last year wan't even his best in the past few years, 2003 was. Furcal is pretty darn consistent.

 

Yeah I know that stuff, but it's his 2005 SB and E numbers that have convinced people he's a defensive and base-stealing wizard, and an elite lead-off hitter. Take away those two numbers and he wouldn't be getting these ridiculous offers.

Unfortunately, I think the offers he is getting are fair given recent contracts for Renteria, etc. He's really only being offered slightly over market value, even if that value is high.

 

Fair? Those are widely considered crappy deals. You can talk about marktet prices if you want, but there are multiple markets. there's the free agent market and the trade market. the trade market is pretty reasonable compared to the FA market right now.

 

Let's put it this way: If Renteria got 10 million per, there's no way Furcal's agent is going to allow him to sign for less. My point is not that Furcal is the best option, but that the contracts being offered him can hardly be considered surprising.

 

Fair enough. It's still a poor way to go. Hendry isn't all hot and bothered by Giles b/c he thinks the bidding will get out of hand. What makes SS more important than the OF in terms of overbidding?

Isn't the term "overbidding" used, based on opinion? My point is you don't really know if it's overbidding, unless you know all the bids that have been presented. I doubt every formal bid that goes to a FA & their clients is public information.

 

Well, by all accounts it's just the Braves and the Cubs competing for Furcal. Furcal will stay with the Braves unless offered substantially more money than the Braves can come up with b/c he likes Atlanta and Bobby Cox. Yeah, it's overpaying if we come up with him.

[10man]

Isn't the term "overbidding" used, based on opinion? My point is you don't really know if it's overbidding, unless you know all the bids that have been presented. I doubt every formal bid that goes to a FA & their clients is public information.

I'll go a step further and say that often GM's don't know what other gm's bid on players. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if they share that info, isn't it collusion? (Mark Grudzelaniek, anyone?)

I think if anyone would be sharing that information it would be the player's agent. "So and so is offering us X dollars and Y years. Can you beat that?".

[Bull]

Isn't the term "overbidding" used, based on opinion? My point is you don't really know if it's overbidding, unless you know all the bids that have been presented. I doubt every formal bid that goes to a FA & their clients is public information.

I'll go a step further and say that often GM's don't know what other gm's bid on players. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if they share that info, isn't it collusion? (Mark Grudzelaniek, anyone?)

I think if anyone would be sharing that information it would be the player's agent. "So and so is offering us X dollars and Y years. Can you beat that?".

 

And it's okay for agents to lie, but not ok for gm's to tell the truth.

[10man]

Isn't the term "overbidding" used, based on opinion? My point is you don't really know if it's overbidding, unless you know all the bids that have been presented. I doubt every formal bid that goes to a FA & their clients is public information.

I'll go a step further and say that often GM's don't know what other gm's bid on players. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if they share that info, isn't it collusion? (Mark Grudzelaniek, anyone?)

I think if anyone would be sharing that information it would be the player's agent. "So and so is offering us X dollars and Y years. Can you beat that?".

And it's okay for agents to lie, but not ok for gm's to tell the truth.

:lol: there are still plenty of Bob Sugar's in this world.

[UBlink]

Well, by all accounts it's just the Braves and the Cubs competing for Furcal. Furcal will stay with the Braves unless offered substantially more money than the Braves can come up with b/c he likes Atlanta and Bobby Cox. Yeah, it's overpaying if we come up with him.

 

So the only way the Cubs can get him is by overpaying? That's one way of looking at it, but to me, overpaying is paying more than you would have to - as in, he would have been willing to sign with the Cubs for 5/$50 but we offered 5/$55.

Edited November 29, 2005 by UBlink

[CuseCubFan69]

I would rather have Furcal if it means the Cubs don't trade for Pierre.

[YearofDaCubs]

I would rather have Furcal if it means the Cubs don't trade for Pierre.

I would be extremely happy if we end up with Bradley and Furcal.

[CuseCubFan69]

I would rather have Furcal if it means the Cubs don't trade for Pierre.

I would be extremely happy if we end up with Bradley and Furcal.

 

Me too and if the Cubs could get Bradley for a couple of prospects it would leave the Cubs with a lot of prospects plus Walker and Cpatt to move for an impact bat in right.

 

I wonder if the Dodgers would want CPatt for Bradley?

[Mark Priors Calves]

I caught the end of a Bruce Levine report on ESPN1000 this morning and it sounded like he said the Cubs offered 4 years/38 million.

 

If true, very reasonable.

[YearofDaCubs]

I caught the end of a Bruce Levine report on ESPN1000 this morning and it sounded like he said the Cubs offered 4 years/38 million.

 

If true, very reasonable.

He also mentioned that the first team to add the 5th year probably gets him. I say do it, he is still young.