2005 Top 10 Prospect Rankings

[Tim]

Each year, we release a top 30 (or so) prospect ranking here at NSBB. One comment that we've received is that we should put ours out before Baseball America so that there's no possibility of us "cheating" by looking at their rankings before performing ours.

 

So, this year, our prospect committee is putting out our top 10's before BA does their thing. We haven't yet had time to pull together our comments and everything else that will go into the full list come springtime. But we wanted to get something out quickly, so enjoy!

 

Here's the article.

[Laura]

Good, a thread to talk about what we think the rankings should be (vs what BA's will be).

 

I think BA came out with their rankings later last year. Last year's BA article with the Cubs top ten is dated January '05.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Still very high on Guzman, Tim?

[Tim]

Good, a thread to talk about what we think the rankings should be (vs what BA's will be).

 

I think BA came out with their rankings later last year. Last year's BA article with the Cubs top ten is dated January '05.

They did the NL Central much later last year. This year it is the second division they're doing the top 10's for.

[Outshined_One]

You left me out Tim. :cry:

[Tim]

Still very high on Guzman, Tim?

I have to admit a certain inconsistency in my rankings this year. I put Pie, Guzman and Pawelek up there because of the ceilings they possess. But I knocked Dope and Harvey further down the list despite their ceilings because of my doubts about their being able to reach those ceilings without improving their plate discipline / pitch recognition. I've tried to be more consistent about these things before, but then again, I usually give myself until March to get these things straightened out. I've always put my list out after I get a chance to see the guys in Arizona in the spring and see who's put on a few pounds (or taken them off), play in scrimmages, etc. Then I have plugged that information into a systematic way of combining stats, progression of stats, information from scouting reports, information from first hand sources in previous years and my own eyes into a weighted ranking system. The system has changed every year, but at least there's been a system.

 

There's a lot of gut feel in this year's ranking as no system was used. I do, however, have good reasons why I can justify each of those guys over each other. It's just that some of those reasons may not make sense when taken as a whole. :D

 

In particular on Guzman...if he's healthy, I think he's going to push someone out of the rotation around June. Call me crazy, but I think this is the year he gets over the hump and stays on the bump.

[Tim]

You left me out Tim. :cry:

Sorry, OO. I just included the writers for the site and UK, who I keep trying to convince to be a writer.

[Outshined_One]

You left me out Tim. :cry:

Sorry, OO. I just included the writers for the site and UK, who I keep trying to convince to be a writer.

 

And people have been trying to convince me, too.

 

Thanks to my laziness, that has yet to unfold...although I could whip up some articles if you want. ;)

[abuck1220]

uk...no hill?

 

you're dead to me.

[Chris]

Good stuff. Thanks guys!

[Tim]

Everyone feel free to pose any questions you may have to any of us and we'll answer as best we can.

[Outshined_One]

Those of you who had Sean Gallagher in your Top 10s, explain yourselves. :D

[Transmogrified Tiger]

T2E is the only sane one apparently. Viva Nolasco!

[Tim]

T2E is the only sane one apparently. Viva Nolasco!

Here's the rest of what I rated:

 

11. Marmol

12. Nolasco

13. Gallagher

 

As I said to the others, there's a pretty significant dropoff after these guys. However, I could put any of those three being in the top 10 and defend it pretty well.

[NCCubFan]

My top 3 (in Serena's contest) are exactly the same as T2E, and my #5 was his #4, so at the top I'm much closer to him than the others. Somehow I overlooked Marshall and Nolasco.

[TXCubsFan]

Still very high on Guzman, Tim?

I have to admit a certain inconsistency in my rankings this year. I put Pie, Guzman and Pawelek up there because of the ceilings they possess. But I knocked Dope and Harvey further down the list despite their ceilings because of my doubts about their being able to reach those ceilings without improving their plate discipline / pitch recognition. I've tried to be more consistent about these things before, but then again, I usually give myself until March to get these things straightened out. I've always put my list out after I get a chance to see the guys in Arizona in the spring and see who's put on a few pounds (or taken them off), play in scrimmages, etc. Then I have plugged that information into a systematic way of combining stats, progression of stats, information from scouting reports, information from first hand sources in previous years and my own eyes into a weighted ranking system. The system has changed every year, but at least there's been a system.

 

There's a lot of gut feel in this year's ranking as no system was used. I do, however, have good reasons why I can justify each of those guys over each other. It's just that some of those reasons may not make sense when taken as a whole. :D

 

In particular on Guzman...if he's healthy, I think he's going to push someone out of the rotation around June. Call me crazy, but I think this is the year he gets over the hump and stays on the bump.

 

That player might well be Wood. If the Cubs are willing to eat a few million, they could trade him to a team looking for a closer at current prices!

[Tim]

Still very high on Guzman, Tim?

I have to admit a certain inconsistency in my rankings this year. I put Pie, Guzman and Pawelek up there because of the ceilings they possess. But I knocked Dope and Harvey further down the list despite their ceilings because of my doubts about their being able to reach those ceilings without improving their plate discipline / pitch recognition. I've tried to be more consistent about these things before, but then again, I usually give myself until March to get these things straightened out. I've always put my list out after I get a chance to see the guys in Arizona in the spring and see who's put on a few pounds (or taken them off), play in scrimmages, etc. Then I have plugged that information into a systematic way of combining stats, progression of stats, information from scouting reports, information from first hand sources in previous years and my own eyes into a weighted ranking system. The system has changed every year, but at least there's been a system.

 

There's a lot of gut feel in this year's ranking as no system was used. I do, however, have good reasons why I can justify each of those guys over each other. It's just that some of those reasons may not make sense when taken as a whole. :D

 

In particular on Guzman...if he's healthy, I think he's going to push someone out of the rotation around June. Call me crazy, but I think this is the year he gets over the hump and stays on the bump.

 

That player might well be Wood. If the Cubs are willing to eat a few million, they could trade him to a team looking for a closer at current prices!

My feeling is that if Wood is healthy enough to pitch effectively, he's going to be more use as a starter.

[NCCubFan]

That player might well be Wood. If the Cubs are willing to eat a few million, they could trade him to a team looking for a closer at current prices!

They'd have to convince Wood to waive his no-trade clause.

[TXCubsFan]

Still very high on Guzman, Tim?

I have to admit a certain inconsistency in my rankings this year. I put Pie, Guzman and Pawelek up there because of the ceilings they possess. But I knocked Dope and Harvey further down the list despite their ceilings because of my doubts about their being able to reach those ceilings without improving their plate discipline / pitch recognition. I've tried to be more consistent about these things before, but then again, I usually give myself until March to get these things straightened out. I've always put my list out after I get a chance to see the guys in Arizona in the spring and see who's put on a few pounds (or taken them off), play in scrimmages, etc. Then I have plugged that information into a systematic way of combining stats, progression of stats, information from scouting reports, information from first hand sources in previous years and my own eyes into a weighted ranking system. The system has changed every year, but at least there's been a system.

 

There's a lot of gut feel in this year's ranking as no system was used. I do, however, have good reasons why I can justify each of those guys over each other. It's just that some of those reasons may not make sense when taken as a whole. :D

 

In particular on Guzman...if he's healthy, I think he's going to push someone out of the rotation around June. Call me crazy, but I think this is the year he gets over the hump and stays on the bump.

 

That player might well be Wood. If the Cubs are willing to eat a few million, they could trade him to a team looking for a closer at current prices!

My feeling is that if Wood is healthy enough to pitch effectively, he's going to be more use as a starter.

 

Tim,

 

I had assumed that he's finished as a starter (i.e., limited to 100 innings per year). I agree, if healthy, he'll start.

[Outshined_One]

T2E is the only sane one apparently. Viva Nolasco!

Here's the rest of what I rated:

 

11. Marmol

12. Nolasco

13. Gallagher

 

As I said to the others, there's a pretty significant dropoff after these guys. However, I could put any of those three being in the top 10 and defend it pretty well.

 

Not a fan of Veal or Moore?

[Tim]

T2E is the only sane one apparently. Viva Nolasco!

Here's the rest of what I rated:

 

11. Marmol

12. Nolasco

13. Gallagher

 

As I said to the others, there's a pretty significant dropoff after these guys. However, I could put any of those three being in the top 10 and defend it pretty well.

 

Not a fan of Veal or Moore?

They'd be in my next grouping, but they're a good bit behind these guys in my mind.

[Outshined_One]

They'd be in my next grouping, but they're a good bit behind these guys in my mind.

 

Any particular reason you have Veal behind those other guys?

[Tim]

They'd be in my next grouping, but they're a good bit behind these guys in my mind.

 

Any particular reason you have Veal behind those other guys?

Yeah.

 

1) he's one of the guys I haven't seen yet. I haven't seen Pawelek yet, either, but there weren't as many questions about him. I just generally have a harder time rating guys I haven't seen.

 

2) There were a lot of questions about consistency with Veal coming out of the draft. Guys like that usually end up at one end or the other. I'd like to see that he's better able to repeat over time before moving him up the list.

 

3) The other guys ahead of him (except Pawelek) are all significantly more proven. In Pawelek's case, his ceiling is what drives him up the list.

[Outshined_One]

Gotcha. 8)

[Diffusion]

This year it turns out BA copies Tim, not the other way around!

 

You got Pie right, obviously, you got the right three names for 2-4, including Pawelek and Cedeno in the right order, you got Hill and Marshall at 5 and 6 right, you put a pitcher that dominated Double-A at 7 and had Harvey, Dopirak and Patterson rounding it out 8-10, all three right.