Howry signs with Cubs (yes, it's official)

[Southpaw191679666239]

So no new news on this yet.....deal not going down?

 

Nothing new... TBD.

[oldcubsfan]

So no new news on this yet.....deal not going down?

I'll say the announcement will come tomorrow. Then the bullpen will be in shape(hopefully) and Hendry will move on to the offense. The winter meetings will be fun to watch this year, a lot of trades and more free agents after Dec. 7 date to non tender people.

[badger1679666666]

Can we all sing Cumbahya or however it's spelled if this thread gets to page 31 without an actual signing?

 

:lol:

[CuseCubFan69]

So if this happens what picks do the Cubs lose with these 2 signings?

[Diffusion]

After running through a lot of the posts here, can anyone provide a quick explanation of why B.J. Ryan is appreciably better than Bobby Howry? Their career numbers are similar, Ryan strikes more guys out than Howry, but also walks more batters than Howry (BJ averages a walk every two innings, Howry is about one every three).

 

There was not a lot of confidence in BJ in Baltimore as a closer and the fact that he was being compared to Jorge Julio helped him a great deal.

 

Moreover, Eyre's numbers since started to get significant work in the pen since 2002 compare favorably with Ryan's since 2002.

 

On the face of it, the signings of Eyre and Howry (if this is true) for 11 or 12 million over three years appear to be good additions for the team and it is difficult to imagine that paying more for Ryan would gain the Cubs anything more than they are already getting from Eyre and Howry. While the Hawkins/Remlinger debacle give some pause, I just don't see how Ryan is more of a sure thing than Eyre or Howry.

 

BJ Ryan (aged 29, turns 30 in December)

June 19th 2002 (something of a turning point in Ryan's career apparently, all bad before, all brilliant ever since...) through present day

243 IP, 181 H, 11 HR, 104 BB, 316 K, 2.59 ERA, 2.67 FIPS

 

Scott Eyre (aged 33, turns 34 in March)

May 1st 2002 (date Eyre claims he started taking medication for ADHD) through present day

229 IP, 200 H, 16 HR, 101 BB, 188 K, 3.03 ERA, 3.79 FIPS

 

Bob Howry (aged 32, turns 33 in August)

April 1st 2004 (date Howry made return from elbow injury/general crapiness with Red Sox) through present day

115.2 IP, 86 H, 9 HR, 28 BB, 87 K, 2.57 ERA, 3.43 FIPS

 

The trouble with Eyre and Howry is that their peripheral numbers do not point to them being able to keep their ERAs down where they are now, as the FIPS indicate. Almost all of their successes have been driven by limiting hits without limiting balls in play. Precarious, particularly in Howry's case, as we're only talking about 115.2 innings. Howry has at least done a fine job of avoiding home runs and walks, but he hasn't struck enough guys out of late. Eyre's strikeout rate is similarly unspectacular, but he's putting runners on base at a damaging rate. And both Eyre and Howry are older, and therefore bigger risks, short-term and long-term.

[YearofDaCubs]

After running through a lot of the posts here, can anyone provide a quick explanation of why B.J. Ryan is appreciably better than Bobby Howry? Their career numbers are similar, Ryan strikes more guys out than Howry, but also walks more batters than Howry (BJ averages a walk every two innings, Howry is about one every three).

 

There was not a lot of confidence in BJ in Baltimore as a closer and the fact that he was being compared to Jorge Julio helped him a great deal.

 

Moreover, Eyre's numbers since started to get significant work in the pen since 2002 compare favorably with Ryan's since 2002.

 

On the face of it, the signings of Eyre and Howry (if this is true) for 11 or 12 million over three years appear to be good additions for the team and it is difficult to imagine that paying more for Ryan would gain the Cubs anything more than they are already getting from Eyre and Howry. While the Hawkins/Remlinger debacle give some pause, I just don't see how Ryan is more of a sure thing than Eyre or Howry.

 

BJ Ryan (aged 29, turns 30 in December)

June 19th 2002 (something of a turning point in Ryan's career apparently, all bad before, all brilliant ever since...) through present day

243 IP, 181 H, 11 HR, 104 BB, 316 K, 2.59 ERA, 2.67 FIPS

 

Scott Eyre (aged 33, turns 34 in March)

May 1st 2002 (date Eyre claims he started taking medication for ADHD) through present day

229 IP, 200 H, 16 HR, 101 BB, 188 K, 3.03 ERA, 3.79 FIPS

 

Bob Howry (aged 32, turns 33 in August)

April 1st 2004 (date Howry made return from elbow injury/general crapiness with Red Sox) through present day

115.2 IP, 86 H, 9 HR, 28 BB, 87 K, 2.57 ERA, 3.43 FIPS

 

The trouble with Eyre and Howry is that their peripheral numbers do not point to them being able to keep their ERAs down where they are now, as the FIPS indicate. Almost all of their successes have been driven by limiting hits without limiting balls in play. Precarious, particularly in Howry's case, as we're only talking about 115.2 innings. Howry has at least done a fine job of avoiding home runs and walks, but he hasn't struck enough guys out of late. Eyre's strikeout rate is similarly unspectacular, but he's putting runners on base at a damaging rate. And both Eyre and Howry are older, and therefore bigger risks, short-term and long-term.

In other words get ready for some bloated ERAs from both.

[JeffH]

So if this happens what picks do the Cubs lose with these 2 signings?

 

2nd and 3rd round.

[Guest]

After running through a lot of the posts here, can anyone provide a quick explanation of why B.J. Ryan is appreciably better than Bobby Howry? Their career numbers are similar, Ryan strikes more guys out than Howry, but also walks more batters than Howry (BJ averages a walk every two innings, Howry is about one every three).

Well, the biggest difference is that strikeout rate. The discrepancy there isn't something to gloss over; Ryan posted a K/9 of 12.7 over the past two years, while Howry's K/9 was a rather pedestrian 6.8. That's a much, much larger difference than the relatively minor gap between their walk rates. Ryan also does a better job of keeping the ball in the park.

 

As far as Eyre goes, his strikeout rate will probably fall somewhere between Howry's and Ryan's but he'll also have the highest walk rate. His GB/FB ratio is troubling, as well, as he gives up a fair number of fly balls that may have an easier time exiting the Friendly Confines than SBC, PetCo, and Chavez.

 

In general, I'm not a big fan of dumping tens of millions of dollars into your bullpen. There's only so much value it can provide given the limited numbers of innings pitched by its members. I realize a lot of those innings are of the high-leverage variety, but I still think spending the money on parts that get more consistent work is a better idea.

[UK1679666180]

I'll reserve my opinion until I see what has been done to improve this inconsistent offense. If they're able to improve it to what should amount to a reasonable level, I'll be content with these signings.

 

But, if remaining payroll comes into question why the Cubs would not pursue a Giles or look into a trade for Abreu, I'll blame Hendry for these two signings. They improve the pen, but increases the chances of "settling" for a decent RF'er/Cf'er and having a terrible bench again.

 

Their #1 priority ahould be getting an elite RF'er and an above avg. CF'er, before anything else.

[goonys evil twin]

But, if remaining payroll comes into question why the Cubs would not pursue a Giles or look into a trade for Abreu, I'll blame Hendry for these two signings.

 

I'll blame the cumulative effect of these signings and the Neifi/Rusch signings along with the likely Macias raise. These signings alone can't handicap this team, but overpaying by a million+ on 4-5 different guys can be the difference between going after Giles or Jacque Jones.

[frostwyrm]

From Tom Verducci's column in Sports Illustrated:

 

Welcome to baseball's silly season, when baseball people convince themselves to spend money like there is no tomorrow, or like there are no cheaper alternatives to middling veteran players. It's the free agency shopping season, a sometimes confusing, often confounding time when strange things happen, such as somebody named Scott Eyre being guaranteed $11 million.

 

"When I saw that," one agent said, "it was good news for everybody. There are a lot of teams out there flush with new revenue and ready to spend money on a [free agent] market that's not so great."

 

 

That quote by the agent is informative. Considering that Eyre immediately took Hendry's offer and never even negotiated with other teams, Hendry may not only have outbid himself, he may possibly have single-handedly moved the entire FA market upwards. Way to go, Jim!

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/tom_verducci/11/22/verducci/index.html?cnn=yes

[Geech]

Don't be silly. Market forces caused Eyre to sign a huge contract this early in the offseason.

[JC]

I'll reserve my opinion until I see what has been done to improve this inconsistent offense. If they're able to improve it to what should amount to a reasonable level, I'll be content with these signings.

 

But, if remaining payroll comes into question why the Cubs would not pursue a Giles or look into a trade for Abreu, I'll blame Hendry for these two signings. They improve the pen, but increases the chances of "settling" for a decent RF'er/Cf'er and having a terrible bench again.

 

Their #1 priority ahould be getting an elite RF'er and an above avg. CF'er, before anything else.

 

Even if the Cubs packed the line-up top to bottom with terrific players, I'd still worry about that first round of injuries and management's inability to recognize team needs and winning baseball. Being able to fill out a proper line-up card by default doesn't cure the ills of poor management. Thus, I'm relegated to not only hoping the Cubs improve the quality of players in their line-up, but also that those same players stay healthy.

 

I'd also like $25 million while I'm asking for the moon...

[frostwyrm]

Don't be silly. Market forces caused Eyre to sign a huge contract this early in the offseason.

 

Market forces never had a chance to assert themselves. Eyre's agent has stated that negotiating started and ended with the Chicago Cubs.

[Geech]

Yeah, that was tongue-in-cheek.

[UK1679666180]

I'll reserve my opinion until I see what has been done to improve this inconsistent offense. If they're able to improve it to what should amount to a reasonable level, I'll be content with these signings.

 

But, if remaining payroll comes into question why the Cubs would not pursue a Giles or look into a trade for Abreu, I'll blame Hendry for these two signings. They improve the pen, but increases the chances of "settling" for a decent RF'er/Cf'er and having a terrible bench again.

 

Their #1 priority ahould be getting an elite RF'er and an above avg. CF'er, before anything else.

 

Even if the Cubs packed the line-up top to bottom with terrific players, I'd still worry about that first round of injuries and management's inability to recognize team needs and winning baseball. Being able to fill out a proper line-up card by default doesn't cure the ills of poor management. Thus, I'm relegated to not only hoping the Cubs improve the quality of players in their line-up, but also that those same players stay healthy.

 

I'd also like $25 million while I'm asking for the moon...

 

You have to cross each bridge one at a time. I'd like to cross the "Cubs have a stacked line-up" bridge 1st. :)

[frostwyrm]

Yeah, that was tongue-in-cheek.

 

Oops, sorry! :oops:

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Ok. I've been traveling all day, and this thread has ballooned to 20 premium pages. Did Howry sign or is it still speculation?

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Ok. I've been traveling all day, and this thread has ballooned to 20 premium pages. Did Howry sign or is it still speculation?

 

rumor still

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Ok. I've been traveling all day, and this thread has ballooned to 20 premium pages. Did Howry sign or is it still speculation?

 

rumor still

 

Good, then I can still hope it doesn't happen. I'd rather have Dotel than two Howry's.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Ok. I've been traveling all day, and this thread has ballooned to 20 premium pages. Did Howry sign or is it still speculation?

 

rumor still

 

Good, then I can still hope it doesn't happen. I'd rather have Dotel than two Howry's.

 

Well, vance, I suggest you get over that disappointment, quickly, cause Dotel isn't coming here (perhaps Baltimore?) and I doubt Howry gets any better deal then what the Cubs alledgely offered him. My guess is...the Cubs AND Howry are working out the small details on the contracts, ie incentives, NTC (or minimal NTC), etc... It wouldn't surprise me if Howry signs later tonight.

[JeffH]

I realize a lot of those innings are of the high-leverage variety, but I still think spending the money on parts that get more consistent work is a better idea.

 

If by "parts that get more consistent work" you mean everyday position players, sure.

 

If you mean starting pitching, then I can't agree with you, at least given the available talent this offseason.

 

If Howry signs, say for $13/3, the Cubs are going to get Eyre and Howry for $24/3. That's probably what it'll cost to get a completely mediocre starting pitcher, like Matt Morris or Jarrod Washburn.

 

I'd rather have Eyre and Howry - they're both much higher on the relief pitcher food chain than those starters are on the starting pitcher food chain. Also, by getting two guys instead of one, your risk is spread out.

 

If you want to argue Eyre/Howry vs. Giles, et al, fine. Or take exception to the money or the years.

 

But Eyre+Howry > Morris/Washburn/Byrd/Weaver

[Balsa]

That quote by the agent is informative. Considering that Eyre immediately took Hendry's offer and never even negotiated with other teams, Hendry may not only have outbid himself, he may possibly have single-handedly moved the entire FA market upwards. Way to go, Jim!

 

Well the good news is that everyone else will overpay for their relievers as well then. That the Cubs won't be the only ones hurting from overblown pitching contracts. It'll really hurt teams like Florida and Atlanta that are strapped for cash. Hell, we might have just prevented da Farns from re-signing to the Braves. Silver lining folks.

 

Plus, if this deal is not true, and we don't sign any more FA releivers, then we have effectively burned the bridge behind us for Howry, Farnsworth, Wickman, etc.

[Tim]

That quote by the agent is informative. Considering that Eyre immediately took Hendry's offer and never even negotiated with other teams, Hendry may not only have outbid himself, he may possibly have single-handedly moved the entire FA market upwards. Way to go, Jim!

 

Well the good news is that everyone else will overpay for their relievers as well then. That the Cubs won't be the only ones hurting from overblown pitching contracts. It'll really hurt teams like Florida and Atlanta that are strapped for cash. Hell, we might have just prevented da Farns from re-signing to the Braves. Silver lining folks.

 

Plus, if this deal is not true, and we don't sign any more FA releivers, then we have effectively burned the bridge behind us for Howry, Farnsworth, Wickman, etc.

Nope. Smart teams are able to put together quality bullpens without dishing out ridiculous contracts.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

i bet howry saw eyre's contract and decided he wanted another few mil and a player option for a fourth year.