Could we contend with this team?

[YearofDaCubs]

I prefer Mench over Kearns.

 

Not me. Not even close.

Aside from the one half-season Kearns was tearing it up what exactly else has he done? Not much, you cant argue that.

[goonys evil twin]

My main goal was to put some touches on what could happen and discuss whether it would be enough.

 

Why not try and get Burnitz back for $3-4m?

 

I mean, I'd hate to have Burnitz back, but Mench doesn't give you anything more.

[YearofDaCubs]

My main goal was to put some touches on what could happen and discuss whether it would be enough.

 

Why not try and get Burnitz back for $3-4m?

 

I mean, I'd hate to have Burnitz back, but Mench doesn't give you anything more.

You're probably right but at leats with Mench being 28 you might get something a little bit better considering he is about to enter his prime. Burnitz if anything will regress even more than last year because of his age.

[Guest]

Also, with the above line-up you aren't adding much salary. Bradley likely won't make more than 5 million. Furcal is the only big additon salary wise. Mench will be a 3 million player.

 

The remaining roster would likley be:

SP's: Wood, Prior, Zambrano, Maddux, Rusch.

Bullpen: Dempster, Eyre, Williamson, Novoa, Ohman and one of the remaining minor leaguers.

Bench: Neifi, Blanco + ?, ?, ?

 

By going with that line-up, there's likely 10-15 million left under budget. That money could be used to add a starter or spent on bench and bullpen.

 

I think the above is very plausible. I'd prefer Giles, but I'd take a long look at doing the above.

 

But why Mench? He's not any good, his numbers away from Arlington are brutal, even when you don't consider he'd be your RF and hitting in the middle of the order.

I'm with you on this one, Goony. I'm thoroughly unimpressed with Mench. He's not terrible, even for a corner OF, but he really isn't that good. I'd certainly hope that we could do better than Mench for Walker -- even without throwing an extra young arm or two. Look at it this way: Walker is a pretty good bet to be just as good offensively as Mench. He does this at a position where the offensive expectation is much lower, and the two will probably have similar 2006 salaries.

 

I'd rather spend a little extra in terms of players/prospects to get a real decent RF. Not only will we be facing a roster crunch from Rule 5 eligibles, we also have a couple young arms who are out of options and are unlikely to make our big-league staff. (Mitre and Welly.) I'm not sure who would be available, but I'd at least try for someone better than Mench.

 

Other than that, though, I'm OK with the lineup. Bradley would be one of my first choices for CF, and at this point I'm resigned to a Furcal/Neifi MIF.

Edited November 18, 2005 by Anonymous

[soapy]

To answer why I included Mench:

 

First, he's reportedly available. Texas has some interest in what the Cubs could offer.

 

Secondly, he's 28 yrs old and fits the mold of the type of player Hendry would pursue.

 

Third, he has a decent slugging percentage that I think would make him a capable fifth place hitter.

 

Fourth, would I prefer a better option? Yes. And if a better option such as Wilkerson, Dunn, Abreu is available we should definitely pursue them.

 

My main goal was to put some touches on what could happen and discuss whether it would be enough.

 

But can Mench catch the ball?

 

To answer the original question: Can that team compete? Maybe, but your depending on Murton, Cedeno and Mench to have great seasons (for them). It's entirely possible that two of those three could have lousy years and then this team doesn't compete. I think you would absolutely have to add a SP to even consider taking a chance on that team. And even then I think you're playing for the wild card.

[Dr. Cub]

If our pitching stayed relatively healthy all year; then yes we could contend with that team. If you look at the production in terms of OPS from our OF last year compared to what it would likely be with that OF, you will see a vast improvement. In '05 we received the following production values:

 

LF .738 OPS, CF .643 OPS, RF .746 OPS

 

You can take a minute to expel the rest of the vomit now.

 

With the OF Vance listed an .800+ OPS from each OF position should be expected. At that level of production you would be suggesting drop offs for each of those OF'ers . Murton was at .908 last year, Bradley was at .835, and Mench at .818 OPS. So even including some substanial drop offs, you would receive quite a boost in OPS from your "new" OF. However, with a likely drop off in OPS from 1B, and 2B, you may lose half or more of that gain. Yet, that would be countered by the large gain with Furcal. Overall, I see that as a much more productive team, and a vastly improved OF offense. With all that said though, our pitching would still be the key.

[goonys evil twin]

My main goal was to put some touches on what could happen and discuss whether it would be enough.

 

Why not try and get Burnitz back for $3-4m?

 

I mean, I'd hate to have Burnitz back, but Mench doesn't give you anything more.

You're probably right but at leats with Mench being 28 you might get something a little bit better considering he is about to enter his prime. Burnitz if anything will regress even more than last year because of his age.

 

At 28, many would say he's already hit his prime, I don't see massive improvement coming, especially with a move away from Texas. Part of the concern with the stated lineup is going all RF in the middle. Burnitz would also solve that. And, as Bob's Keeper pointed out, Walker is better than Mench, why not just move Todd to RF?

 

I'd look long and hard at all the other options before I'd entertain the idea of Mench in RF, and even then, I better only get him for spare parts, not a good 2B.

[Diffusion]

C Barrett

1B Lee

2B Walker

3B Ramirez

SS Nomar

LF Murton

CF Bradley

RF Big bat

 

Why not?

[Guest]

C Barrett

1B Lee

2B Walker

3B Ramirez

SS Nomar

LF Murton

CF Bradley

RF Big bat

 

Why not?

Because that's what I wanted them to do?

Edited November 18, 2005 by Anonymous

[goonys evil twin]

If you look at the production in terms of OPS from our OF last year compared to what it would likely be with that OF, you will see a vast improvement. In '05 we received the following production values:

 

LF .738 OPS, CF .643 OPS, RF .746 OPS

 

You can take a minute to expel the rest of the vomit now.

 

With the OF Vance listed an .800+ OPS from each OF position should be expected. At that level of production you would be suggesting drop offs for each of those OF'ers . Murton was at .908 last year, Bradley was at .835, and Mench at .818 OPS.

 

Mench hit .254/.317/.452 away from Arlington last year. He was .262/.315/.476 from 2002-2004. I would not assume an 800+ OPS out of a guy whose 818 career is help up only by his time playing in Arlington.

[BigbadB]

I've said it before....

 

Mench would be a good PH/4th outfielder. Nothing more.

 

Speaking of PH and the love of catching the ball, the 3m that Patterson would probably cost next year fits right in with the amount Neifi is getting to "catch the ball" in the infield. Why are they attempting to dump Patterson while treating Neifi exactly the opposite?

[YearofDaCubs]

If you look at the production in terms of OPS from our OF last year compared to what it would likely be with that OF, you will see a vast improvement. In '05 we received the following production values:

 

LF .738 OPS, CF .643 OPS, RF .746 OPS

 

You can take a minute to expel the rest of the vomit now.

 

With the OF Vance listed an .800+ OPS from each OF position should be expected. At that level of production you would be suggesting drop offs for each of those OF'ers . Murton was at .908 last year, Bradley was at .835, and Mench at .818 OPS.

 

Mench hit .254/.317/.452 away from Arlington last year. He was .262/.315/.476 from 2002-2004. I would not assume an 800+ OPS out of a guy whose 818 career is help up only by his time playing in Arlington.

Good points.

[goonys evil twin]

I've said it before....

 

Mench would be a good PH/4th outfielder. Nothing more.

 

Speaking of PH and the love of catching the ball, the 3m that Patterson would probably cost next year fits right in with the amount Neifi is getting to "catch the ball" in the infield. Why are they attempting to dump Patterson while treating Neifi exactly the opposite?

 

You don't need an actual answer to that question do you?

[BigbadB]

I've said it before....

 

Mench would be a good PH/4th outfielder. Nothing more.

 

Speaking of PH and the love of catching the ball, the 3m that Patterson would probably cost next year fits right in with the amount Neifi is getting to "catch the ball" in the infield. Why are they attempting to dump Patterson while treating Neifi exactly the opposite?

 

You don't need an actual answer to that question do you?

 

No. I know the answer, but I really don't understand it.

[CubfaninCA]

Just curious... Is Texas a far superior hitter's park when compared to Wrigley?

[The Voice of Reason]

With the added flexibility the Braves have because of Chipper's contract restructuring, and assuming the Braves win "ties," do you outbid a 5 year $10 million dollar Braves offer for Furcal? Assuming the S.S Nomar has sailed, what do you do about shortstop? Edited November 18, 2005 by The Voice of Reason

[BigbadB]

With the added flexibility the Braves have because of Chipper's contract restructuring, and assuming the Braves win "ties," do you outbid a 5 year $10 million dollar Braves offer for Furdcal? Assuming the S.S Nomar has sailed, what do you do about shortstop?

 

With the restructured contract of Chipper Jones, I'd see if Atlanta would rather just resign Furcal and trade Chipper to the Cubs.

 

Cedeno plays SS since he is one.

[jtownie]

With the added flexibility the Braves have because of Chipper's contract restructuring, and assuming the Braves win "ties," do you outbid a 5 year $10 million dollar Braves offer for Furdcal? Assuming the S.S Nomar has sailed, what do you do about shortstop?

 

With the restructured contract of Chipper Jones, I'd see if Atlanta would rather just resign Furcal and trade Chipper to the Cubs.

 

Cedeno plays SS since he is one.

 

 

Overall I'd prefer Julio Lugo.

[JeffH]

With the restructured contract of Chipper Jones, I'd see if Atlanta would rather just resign Furcal and trade Chipper to the Cubs.

 

5 & 10. End of discussion.

[soapy]

With the added flexibility the Braves have because of Chipper's contract restructuring, and assuming the Braves win "ties," do you outbid a 5 year $10 million dollar Braves offer for Furdcal? Assuming the S.S Nomar has sailed, what do you do about shortstop?

 

With the restructured contract of Chipper Jones, I'd see if Atlanta would rather just resign Furcal and trade Chipper to the Cubs.

 

Cedeno plays SS since he is one.

 

 

Overall I'd prefer Julio Lugo.

 

I'd make Cedeno my SS and use all my resources to try to sign Giles and trade for Bradley or Wilkerson. If I can't sign Giles, I do everything I can to facilitate a trade for and impact RF. I try to sign or trade for another SP (not named Burnett) and possibly another reliable RP. I keep Walker.

 

Walker

Murton

Lee

Giles/Abreu/etc.

Ramirez

Bradley

Barrett

Cedeno

[JeffH]

Just curious... Is Texas a far superior hitter's park when compared to Wrigley?

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

 

Around 15% better.

[goonys evil twin]

Just curious... Is Texas a far superior hitter's park when compared to Wrigley?

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

 

Around 15% better.

 

I forgot they changed the name. They've had a weird run, going from among the top, back toward the middle, toward the top and back to the middle.

 

Either way, it's a better hitter's park than Wrigley, and Mench has been brutal away from it.

[fromthestretch]

Just curious... Is Texas a far superior hitter's park when compared to Wrigley?

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

 

Around 15% better.

 

I don't think they have quite the wind factor as Wrigley. They get their share of wind in Arlington, but the way the stadium is built, you have to hit the ball rather high for the wind to be a factor.

[JeffH]

Either way, it's a better hitter's park than Wrigley, and Mench has been brutal away from it.

 

I don't really want Mench, but this kind of analysis is not always foolproof in judging how a hitter will perform in new surroundings.

 

It's certainly better than nothing, of course, and any attempt to acquire Mench should be tempered by these data.

[CubfaninCA]

With the added flexibility the Braves have because of Chipper's contract restructuring, and assuming the Braves win "ties," do you outbid a 5 year $10 million dollar Braves offer for Furdcal? Assuming the S.S Nomar has sailed, what do you do about shortstop?

 

With the restructured contract of Chipper Jones, I'd see if Atlanta would rather just resign Furcal and trade Chipper to the Cubs.

 

Cedeno plays SS since he is one.

 

 

Overall I'd prefer Julio Lugo.

 

I'd make Cedeno my SS and use all my resources to try to sign Giles and trade for Bradley or Wilkerson. If I can't sign Giles, I do everything I can to facilitate a trade for and impact RF. I try to sign or trade for another SP (not named Burnett) and possibly another reliable RP. I keep Walker.

 

Walker

Murton

Lee

Giles/Abreu/etc.

Ramirez

Bradley

Barrett

Cedeno

 

Give Baker that roster and Neifi's leading off.