BA Top 20 Prospects: Southern League

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Guzman, Pinto and Aardsma are already on the 40-man, dkwg.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Guzman, Pinto and Aardsma are already on the 40-man, dkwg.

 

Right, but they don't have to stay there. I guess I'm lumping all the minor league guys together in my mind, vs. the major leaguers.

 

Should have mentioned: Chad Fox can be dumped too, he's on the 60-day DL, but counts against the 40-man once the Rule 5 draft is upon us. Tough deal for him, but he's gone.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Guzman, Pinto and Aardsma are already on the 40-man, dkwg.

 

Right, but they don't have to stay there. I guess I'm lumping all the minor league guys together in my mind, vs. the major leaguers.

 

Ahh, I see where you're coming from. I'd protect everyone on your list but Ryu (I'd protect him if there was space, but Pie, Sing, Nolasco, Marshall and Marmol are musts to be added in my eyes).

[wvcbxl]

I mean seriously--what big league club is going to claim Ryan Theriot in the Rule 5? Or Mike Fontenot? Not going to happen.

 

Of course not.

But what are the obligations of a team claiming them off waivers? If they don't have to be kept on the 25-man roster all season, it might be worth taking a chance on either.

[jaxxradio]

1. Somebody suggested they liked Marshall (if healthy) better than Pinto or anybody, suggesting that he throws as hard as Pinto but has better control. Ron, would you say that's true, from your observation on Marshall? I was under the impression that neither his fastball velocity nor his fastball movement were nearly as good as Pinto's. I'd have guessed his fastball more in the Hill 88-92 range. What are your thoughts?

 

I honestly don't have an opinion on Marshall because he hasn't pitched a long enough period of time without getting hurt. His health concerns me. As for Pinto, he just needs to harness his control. I agree with you on the anti-HR statement. He rarely gives up the dinger.

 

*note: I wonder if Pinto's stuff isn't underappreciated a bit by some posters. Sure, he's kinda wild. But man, that guy was totally anti-HR this season. You can put a few more guys on base and get away with it when you didn't give up HR's. (See Zambrano. And see Maddux for the opposite, a guy who may have a nice WHIP but gives up so many HR's that his ERA will be average.)

 

2. Ron, how good do you think Ryu's stuff is, compared to the other lead guys? What is it that makes him not quite as good as Nolasco or the other guys? Not quite as much velocity on the fastball? Not quite as much life? Not quite as good control of the breaking ball?

 

I thought Ryu pitched as good as Nolasco and Pinto this season. He was durable, which is exactly what the Cubs wanted out of him this season. Ryu throwa his fastball in the upper 80's-low 90's, has a dynamite curveball and a solid change. I think he's one of those guys that's flying under the radar. I look for him to have a solid 2006 season in Iowa.

 

3. Somebody touched on Hill, how he can have "electric stuff" but still profile as no better than a #3. I wonder if the "electric stuff" is misleading; he's got an electric pitch, the curveball. But I'm not under the impression that either his change or fastball qualify as "electric". One electric knockout pitch with some perfectly fine other pitches can win a lot of games. But I think really it's the curveball that's special.

 

His electric stuff is his devastating curveball. His fastball sits in the 90-93 range but the interesting thing is that his heater has late action as far as velocity. The ball explodes through the zone. I have said this before and I will say it again, Hill could be very dominating if he consistently locates and establishes his fastball. That curveball has Barry Zito type action written all over it.

 

4. Ron, thanks for feedback on Pie's defense. The tepid report on his defense concerned me some, since I've always assumed that his defense was going to be a signature virtue for him.

 

The thing that pisses me off about publications like Baseball America is the fact that they take people's opinion at face value instead of doing there homework. I have no idea how they could thnk Pie's defense is raw. It's pretty obvious that nobody at BA has ever seen him play or they saw him play in a game where Pie wasn't at his best. The only weakness in Pie's defense is his that he is tenative when coming in on a shallow fly. The guy is incredibly solid everywhere else defensively. Offensively, he needs to make better contact. Keep in mind, this kid is still only 20 years old.

[abuck1220]

i think it's become pretty much par for the course to say that pie is raw...because he is raw on the bases and at the plate. i think that some of that talk has just seeped into discussion about his defense, whether true or not.

 

i am very much looking forward to the 2006 season in des moines.

[rawaction]

I've read various accounts that say Marshall thows 88-92 w/ sink. He did top out at 96 in his 2004 season debut in Lansing (temps that game were below 40 degrees).

 

I was at that game. Don't remember a 96. He hit 94 though. Mostly around 91 with his fastball. Then again, that was a long time ago.

[rawaction]

i think it's become pretty much par for the course to say that pie is raw...because he is raw on the bases and at the plate. i think that some of that talk has just seeped into discussion about his defense, whether true or not.

 

i am very much looking forward to the 2006 season in des moines.

 

Yeah, his defense was a finely tuned in Lansing. He could have been one of the top 15 defensive CFs in the majors at 18.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I've read various accounts that say Marshall thows 88-92 w/ sink. He did top out at 96 in his 2004 season debut in Lansing (temps that game were below 40 degrees).

 

I was at that game. Don't remember a 96. He hit 94 though. Mostly around 91 with his fastball. Then again, that was a long time ago.

 

Sorry, it was 95: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/minors/04league20s/mwl.html (Sean's #9)

 

..opening the season by hitting 95 mph during six shutout innings at chilly Battle Creek...

[rawaction]

I've read various accounts that say Marshall thows 88-92 w/ sink. He did top out at 96 in his 2004 season debut in Lansing (temps that game were below 40 degrees).

 

I was at that game. Don't remember a 96. He hit 94 though. Mostly around 91 with his fastball. Then again, that was a long time ago.

 

Sorry, it was 95: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/minors/04league20s/mwl.html (Sean's #9)

 

..opening the season by hitting 95 mph during six shutout innings at chilly Battle Creek...

 

ok, maybe I wasn't at that game. I thought he opened the season in South Bend.

[craig]

Ron, thanks for your comments. I don't get the impression that many of the nsbb posters are too interested in Ryu, so I really agree with your view that he's flying under the radar.

 

This year the goal may have been simply to get through the year, and he did that very nicely. Eventually the goal will need to be better than that, to not only get through a season but to be a good pitcher! He was a good pitcher this year, relative to AA. Can he be a good pitcher, relative to the NL, at some point in the future? That's the question I'm intereted in.

 

I'd like to think the answer is yes. With his curveball and his change, seems there are a number of useful big-leaguers who are effective with high-80's/low-90's fastballs. And my guess is that as long as it reads his fastball as 87-91, nsbb won't be that enthused about a RHP with 87-91 velo. But if we'd been getting reports about 90-93 with touches of 95, suddenly the enthusiasm for Ryu would be way higher.

 

Does a 3-mph difference really mean that much? I dunno, maybe yes, maybe no depending on how great the curve is and how useful the change is and how much location/movement there is on the fastball.

 

But I also remain hopeful that with another year, that not only will Ryu be even better at using his stuff (i.e. better control), but that he'll actually have better stuff. He's still young enough so that he could possible pick up a couple of mph. After a year (or more) with arm issues, I don't know what his conditioning plan was for this year. But it's at least possible, if not necessarily likely, that being a year further removed from his arm problems, that perhaps the arm will be a little bit more strong, or a little bit more healthy, or he'll be better able to condition it over the winter to be a little more jazzy next year.

 

I'd think that if he has the curve and the change, and suddenly nsbb perceived his fastball as being an asset rather than mediocre or perhaps a mild liability, nsbb might be a lot more interested in him.

 

Is any of that likely? Probably not. But it's at least within the realm of the possible. I'd love to see it happen.

[rawaction]

Ron, thanks for your comments. I don't get the impression that many of the nsbb posters are too interested in Ryu, so I really agree with your view that he's flying under the radar.

 

This year the goal may have been simply to get through the year, and he did that very nicely. Eventually the goal will need to be better than that, to not only get through a season but to be a good pitcher! He was a good pitcher this year, relative to AA. Can he be a good pitcher, relative to the NL, at some point in the future? That's the question I'm intereted in.

 

I'd like to think the answer is yes. With his curveball and his change, seems there are a number of useful big-leaguers who are effective with high-80's/low-90's fastballs. And my guess is that as long as it reads his fastball as 87-91, nsbb won't be that enthused about a RHP with 87-91 velo. But if we'd been getting reports about 90-93 with touches of 95, suddenly the enthusiasm for Ryu would be way higher.

 

Does a 3-mph difference really mean that much? I dunno, maybe yes, maybe no depending on how great the curve is and how useful the change is and how much location/movement there is on the fastball.

 

But I also remain hopeful that with another year, that not only will Ryu be even better at using his stuff (i.e. better control), but that he'll actually have better stuff. He's still young enough so that he could possible pick up a couple of mph. After a year (or more) with arm issues, I don't know what his conditioning plan was for this year. But it's at least possible, if not necessarily likely, that being a year further removed from his arm problems, that perhaps the arm will be a little bit more strong, or a little bit more healthy, or he'll be better able to condition it over the winter to be a little more jazzy next year.

 

I'd think that if he has the curve and the change, and suddenly nsbb perceived his fastball as being an asset rather than mediocre or perhaps a mild liability, nsbb might be a lot more interested in him.

 

Is any of that likely? Probably not. But it's at least within the realm of the possible. I'd love to see it happen.

 

Why should "nsbb" be enthused? It's not the fact that his fastball is mostly in the upper 80s now. It's the fact that it once was a plus mid-90s fastball. That coupled with the fact that he's had arm troubles. That coupled with the fact that he had some maturity issues early on. That coupled with the fact he had already had over 70 innings in the Southern League prior to this year.

 

I understand that getting thru the year for him was great, but that doesn't mean he's an elite prospect again (I had him rated 7th in a loaded system after the 2003 season). Shouldn't Brownlie be rated higher then? He's had a similar velocity loss, and about the exact same numbers his first time in AA (at about 7 months older). Granted, he didn't back it up this year, but nobody was still putting him in their top 5 after 04 anyway.

 

I would love for JK to get his velocity back. He had the 2nd best stuff from a Cubs RH (Guzman) in the system. But after missing time and losing velocity, he's clearly behind guys like Nolasco, Gallagher, and Marmol.