Dempster's Sticking Around For 3 More Years

[goonys evil twin]

Worst case scenario Dempster becomes a $5MM setup man for a dominant closer somewhere down the road, is that really so awful?

 

Worst case scenario would be much worse than that. What makes you think they would automatically fill that spot with a dominating closer? Worst case is that he sucks, but Dusty keeps running him out there, then in an effort to fix the problem when it's too late, Hendry trades young talent for an aging has been like Mesa. And let's not pretend that can't happen.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Worst case scenario Dempster becomes a $5MM setup man for a dominant closer somewhere down the road, is that really so awful?

 

Worst case scenario would be much worse than that. What makes you think they would automatically fill that spot with a dominating closer? Worst case is that he sucks, but Dusty keeps running him out there, then in an effort to fix the problem when it's too late, Hendry trades young talent for an aging has been like Mesa. And let's not pretend that can't happen.

 

Hendry knows his butt is on the line this offseason, he'll spend all the money he has available, whether wisely or not. If he does not get the guys he wants in the outfield and infield, I think he'll look at BJ Ryan, Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner all sitting out there in free agency and sign one of them, figuring if nothing else, at least I can upgrade my bullpen quality to become a team strength. In that scenario, Dempster moves to the 8th inning. Sign a free agent middle reliever like Scott Eyre or Bobby Howry, and suddenly the bullpen WOULD be a big team strength.

 

If you had Wuertz, Eyre, Dempster and Hoffman let's say in your bullpen, our notoriously inefficient starting pitchers would only need to give us a quality 6 inning start and we would shut it down from there. We've never tried that model, but it seems to have worked well for teams in the past like San Diego, Houston and Minnesota. Maybe we should try it.

[goonys evil twin]

Worst case scenario Dempster becomes a $5MM setup man for a dominant closer somewhere down the road, is that really so awful?

 

Worst case scenario would be much worse than that. What makes you think they would automatically fill that spot with a dominating closer? Worst case is that he sucks, but Dusty keeps running him out there, then in an effort to fix the problem when it's too late, Hendry trades young talent for an aging has been like Mesa. And let's not pretend that can't happen.

 

Hendry knows his butt is on the line this offseason, he'll spend all the money he has available, whether wisely or not. If he does not get the guys he wants in the outfield and infield, I think he'll look at BJ Ryan, Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner all sitting out there in free agency and sign one of them, figuring if nothing else, at least I can upgrade my bullpen quality to become a team strength. In that scenario, Dempster moves to the 8th inning. Sign a free agent middle reliever like Scott Eyre or Bobby Howry, and suddenly the bullpen WOULD be a big team strength.

 

If you had Wuertz, Eyre, Dempster and Hoffman let's say in your bullpen, our notoriously inefficient starting pitchers would only need to give us a quality 6 inning start and we would shut it down from there. We've never tried that model, but it seems to have worked well for teams in the past like San Diego, Houston and Minnesota. Maybe we should try it.

 

OK, that's all well and good. But you were talking about the worst case scenario, and making it seem like no big deal.

 

Hendry signed his closer. Dempster is going to be the closer. I'd be really happy with Ryan or Wagner coming in and Dempster being a set-up guy, but that's not likely. What is most likely is Dempster closing, and he should be alright. But he could blow up with control problems and suck this year, and Hendry wouldn't have many fallback options.

[Lefty]

 

Dempster (like Borowski) is not a lights-out closer and certainly has a tendency to worry me, but what would have happened if the Cubs low-balled Dempster and he signed with another team. Now you have to get in a bidding war over someone like Wagner that will end up costing $8-9 million per year. Is Dempster worth $5 million...... NO, but 99% of the players aren't worth what they're paid. At least it's money being paid to someone who has an important role on the team and not a bench-warmer.

 

This isn't a discussion of whether ballplayers are worth more than firefighters. It is a baseball discussion. Dempster isn't worth $5 million because he's not that good, he is an injury risk, the Cubs could probably replace him for less and then use the extra money for something they need.

 

who could they replace him with for less than 5 mil? with all the $ the cubs will save next year in payroll by losing nomar, burnitz & sosa's contract a few mil is not going to make much of a difference. every pitcher is an injury risk (look at what happened to foulke, gagne & benitez) and to say "he's not that good" is just a personal opinion that the facts simply dont back up. what if the dodgers or twins said the same thing about gange and nathan who had similar history's of being failed starters who were often injured?

 

Well that's it then. Dempster would have to give us a couple of Joe Nathan seasons to make this worth it. I'll gladly be wrong if he does.

[Lefty]

 

Dempster (like Borowski) is not a lights-out closer and certainly has a tendency to worry me, but what would have happened if the Cubs low-balled Dempster and he signed with another team. Now you have to get in a bidding war over someone like Wagner that will end up costing $8-9 million per year. Is Dempster worth $5 million...... NO, but 99% of the players aren't worth what they're paid. At least it's money being paid to someone who has an important role on the team and not a bench-warmer.

 

This isn't a discussion of whether ballplayers are worth more than firefighters. It is a baseball discussion. Dempster isn't worth $5 million because he's not that good, he is an injury risk, the Cubs could probably replace him for less and then use the extra money for something they need.

 

who could they replace him with for less than 5 mil? with all the $ the cubs will save next year in payroll by losing nomar, burnitz & sosa's contract a few mil is not going to make much of a difference. every pitcher is an injury risk (look at what happened to foulke, gagne & benitez) and to say "he's not that good" is just a personal opinion that the facts simply dont back up. what if the dodgers or twins said the same thing about gange and nathan who had similar history's of being failed starters who were often injured?

 

Why would you say Dempster's not good? I'll take a closer with his success rate any day of the week. The beauty of it is he isn't costing top dollar closer money.

 

Closer "success rates" have a large random component. He's likely to be between 80 and 85 percent next year with the same peripheral stats. And if he sucks like I think he will, he may be at 75%. Enjoy.

[mg420]

 

Dempster (like Borowski) is not a lights-out closer and certainly has a tendency to worry me, but what would have happened if the Cubs low-balled Dempster and he signed with another team. Now you have to get in a bidding war over someone like Wagner that will end up costing $8-9 million per year. Is Dempster worth $5 million...... NO, but 99% of the players aren't worth what they're paid. At least it's money being paid to someone who has an important role on the team and not a bench-warmer.

 

This isn't a discussion of whether ballplayers are worth more than firefighters. It is a baseball discussion. Dempster isn't worth $5 million because he's not that good, he is an injury risk, the Cubs could probably replace him for less and then use the extra money for something they need.

 

who could they replace him with for less than 5 mil? with all the $ the cubs will save next year in payroll by losing nomar, burnitz & sosa's contract a few mil is not going to make much of a difference. every pitcher is an injury risk (look at what happened to foulke, gagne & benitez) and to say "he's not that good" is just a personal opinion that the facts simply dont back up. what if the dodgers or twins said the same thing about gange and nathan who had similar history's of being failed starters who were often injured?

 

Well that's it then. Dempster would have to give us a couple of Joe Nathan seasons to make this worth it. I'll gladly be wrong if he does.

you still havent given any cheaper & better options that the cubs had prior to signing dempster. who would you have rather seen them sign than dempster?

[Lefty]

you still havent given any cheaper & better options that the cubs had prior to signing dempster. who would you have rather seen them sign than dempster?

 

Tht's kinda' the point. You oughta be able to get someone for $2 million. That's what Dempster made last year. That's about what Hermanson made last year. There is no reason to pay premium money for a commodity. But the Cubs don't really understand this.

 

The assumption is that Dempster will not convert 94% of his save opportunities again. And the truth is, he shouldn't get any credit for "saving" three run leads in the ninth. I'm pretty sure Hawkins never blew any of those. Anyway, Dempster will probably convert 65%-70% of his one-run leads next year. You can get that for a lot less and sign a non-commodity player.

[Jehrico]

I hope Hendry takes advantage of the fact that he has one less hole to work on before the FA season even begins. Having as many of your holes filled as possible earlier in the FA period seems to give GMs an advantage when pursuing the big name FAs.

 

Just look at how the Sammy question handcuffed Hendry from doing anything last offseason when most of the premier FAs were still available.

[Andy]

I hope Hendry takes advantage of the fact that he has one less hole to work on before the FA season even begins. Having as many of your holes filled as possible earlier in the FA period seems to give GMs an advantage when pursuing the big name FAs.

 

Just look at how the Sammy question handcuffed Hendry from doing anything last offseason when most of the premier FAs were still available.

This is an excellent point. For all the talk about how Hendry 'lets the dust settle' before he does anything, it's worth noting that, at least last season, he had little choice but to wait until Sammy's giant contract was moved to see what he could do.

[YearofDaCubs]

I dont know what the fuss is all about. I was angry when we did not sign a closer the past two season, but I'm very happy having Dempster here now. The way I see it is Dempster did an excellent job for us and even if he regresses just a bit, he will still be MUCH MUCH better than Hawkins. 5mil, like I said before was a little more than I was expecting Demp to get but whatever 5mil for a closer isn't all that bad especially considering Hawkins is making more than that. We still need to sign or trade for another RP that can be good and have that person and Williamson fight it out for the setup spot.

[goonys evil twin]

I dont know what the fuss is all about. I was angry when we did not sign a closer the past two season, but I'm very happy having Dempster here now. The way I see it is Dempster did an excellent job for us and even if he regresses just a bit, he will still be MUCH MUCH better than Hawkins.

 

I don't know about that. Hawkins had good peripherals, but fell flat in the end. Dempster walks the tight rope in his outings. It would not take much of a downgrade in those peripherals for me to see him falling on his face. I'd still like to see the Cubs sign a dominant reliever like Ryan or Wagner. Let Dempster pitch the bridge role, not entering in the middle of innings, but starting and finishing the 8th every night.

[SouthSideRyan]

you still havent given any cheaper & better options that the cubs had prior to signing dempster. who would you have rather seen them sign than dempster?

 

Tht's kinda' the point. You oughta be able to get someone for $2 million. That's what Dempster made last year. That's about what Hermanson made last year. There is no reason to pay premium money for a commodity. But the Cubs don't really understand this.

 

The assumption is that Dempster will not convert 94% of his save opportunities again. And the truth is, he shouldn't get any credit for "saving" three run leads in the ninth. I'm pretty sure Hawkins never blew any of those. Anyway, Dempster will probably convert 65%-70% of his one-run leads next year. You can get that for a lot less and sign a non-commodity player.

 

Okay, tell us the guy you want for 2M then, and come back next season if that guy turns into nothing. There's something to be said for a degree of certainty.

 

And eliminating Dempster's 3 run saves makes things look a lot worse than they are. Even the best closers don't nail down all the 1 run leads.

 

Dempster was 14-16 in 1-run games this year. With 1 of the blown saves being a 2 inning appearance and one of the saves being a 2.2 inning appearance. Along with that he had 0 mult-run blown saves.

 

Hoffman went 17-19 in 1 run games with 1 multi-run blown.

 

Rivera 13-16, 1 multi run.

 

Wagner 12-15, 0 multi run.

[YearofDaCubs]

I dont know what the fuss is all about. I was angry when we did not sign a closer the past two season, but I'm very happy having Dempster here now. The way I see it is Dempster did an excellent job for us and even if he regresses just a bit, he will still be MUCH MUCH better than Hawkins.

 

I don't know about that. Hawkins had good peripherals, but fell flat in the end. Dempster walks the tight rope in his outings. It would not take much of a downgrade in those peripherals for me to see him falling on his face. I'd still like to see the Cubs sign a dominant reliever like Ryan or Wagner. Let Dempster pitch the bridge role, not entering in the middle of innings, but starting and finishing the 8th every night.

Fell flat? Come on man Hawkins was plain terrible in the closer role. It wasn't even close.

[goonys evil twin]

I dont know what the fuss is all about. I was angry when we did not sign a closer the past two season, but I'm very happy having Dempster here now. The way I see it is Dempster did an excellent job for us and even if he regresses just a bit, he will still be MUCH MUCH better than Hawkins.

 

I don't know about that. Hawkins had good peripherals, but fell flat in the end. Dempster walks the tight rope in his outings. It would not take much of a downgrade in those peripherals for me to see him falling on his face. I'd still like to see the Cubs sign a dominant reliever like Ryan or Wagner. Let Dempster pitch the bridge role, not entering in the middle of innings, but starting and finishing the 8th every night.

Fell flat? Come on man Hawkins was plain terrible in the closer role. It wasn't even close.

 

I don't deny that, I wasn't trying to sugarcoat.

 

My point though is that Dempster was walking the tightrope. He wasn't a lockdown closer, despite the % (which isn't a great indicator of future success).

[don_kessinger_was_good]

I dont know what the fuss is all about. I was angry when we did not sign a closer the past two season, but I'm very happy having Dempster here now. The way I see it is Dempster did an excellent job for us and even if he regresses just a bit, he will still be MUCH MUCH better than Hawkins.

 

I don't know about that. Hawkins had good peripherals, but fell flat in the end. Dempster walks the tight rope in his outings. It would not take much of a downgrade in those peripherals for me to see him falling on his face. I'd still like to see the Cubs sign a dominant reliever like Ryan or Wagner. Let Dempster pitch the bridge role, not entering in the middle of innings, but starting and finishing the 8th every night.

Fell flat? Come on man Hawkins was plain terrible in the closer role. It wasn't even close.

 

I don't deny that, I wasn't trying to sugarcoat.

 

My point though is that Dempster was walking the tightrope. He wasn't a lockdown closer, despite the % (which isn't a great indicator of future success).

 

Mitch Williams, Randy Myers and Rod Beck all "walked the tightrope" too, and they got the job done. It makes for nailbiting sure, but just close the deal, that's all you can ask out of these guys. Look at the seasons Todd Jones and Chad Cordero had, for crying out loud. Or Bob Wickman for that matter. Are you telling me you think any of those guys have better stuff than Dempster? I don't.

 

My one quibble with all this discussion though, is that it ignores the necessity for a companion, successful 8th inning guy. THAT is what we need, that is what we did NOT have this year, and that is something that nearly ALL the other successful closers in the league have. Where is our Jesse Crain or Juan Rincon? Tom Gordon? Brendan Donnelly or Scott Shields? Bob Howry or Rafeal Betancourt? Hector Corrasco? Scott Linebrink?

 

Get us something like that to go with Dempster, and our worries will decline exponentially.

[YearofDaCubs]

I dont know what the fuss is all about. I was angry when we did not sign a closer the past two season, but I'm very happy having Dempster here now. The way I see it is Dempster did an excellent job for us and even if he regresses just a bit, he will still be MUCH MUCH better than Hawkins.

 

I don't know about that. Hawkins had good peripherals, but fell flat in the end. Dempster walks the tight rope in his outings. It would not take much of a downgrade in those peripherals for me to see him falling on his face. I'd still like to see the Cubs sign a dominant reliever like Ryan or Wagner. Let Dempster pitch the bridge role, not entering in the middle of innings, but starting and finishing the 8th every night.

Fell flat? Come on man Hawkins was plain terrible in the closer role. It wasn't even close.

 

I don't deny that, I wasn't trying to sugarcoat.

 

My point though is that Dempster was walking the tightrope. He wasn't a lockdown closer, despite the % (which isn't a great indicator of future success).

I do agree that there were times where Dempster did walk the tight rope, but I believe he will be at the very least an efficient closer for us.

[cubfan75]

Per the DHL reliever award article for September, I'd say his numbers were outstanding.

 

13-13 in saves

0 ER in 16 games

19k/5BB in 15.2

not in Sept. but sick stats:

converted last 19 saves

21.1 scoreless innings in a row to close season

33-35 in saves for the season

57 relief appearances with a 1.85 ERA

 

To me that shows he was quite nasty as a closer.

[badger1679666666]

Per the DHL reliever award article for September, I'd say his numbers were outstanding.

 

13-13 in saves

0 ER in 16 games

19k/5BB in 15.2

not in Sept. but sick stats:

converted last 19 saves

21.1 scoreless innings in a row to close season

33-35 in saves for the season

57 relief appearances with a 1.85 ERA

 

To me that shows he was quite nasty as a closer.

 

his K/9 and BB/9 don't show nastiness. Not compared to the top closers.

[Jehrico]

Per the DHL reliever award article for September, I'd say his numbers were outstanding.

 

13-13 in saves

0 ER in 16 games

19k/5BB in 15.2

not in Sept. but sick stats:

converted last 19 saves

21.1 scoreless innings in a row to close season

33-35 in saves for the season

57 relief appearances with a 1.85 ERA

 

To me that shows he was quite nasty as a closer.

 

his K/9 and BB/9 don't show nastiness. Not compared to the top closers.

 

Judging a player by one or two stats isn't a good way to evaluate...you should look across all of the stats. He's not perfect, but looking across the spectrum, it's hard to argue with the results. He may not be one of the top 3 dominant closers in the game, but he did a darned fine job when he was in there, and I'm satisfied with what we got for how much we are paying, especially if you consider what some of the other comparable options out there would likely fetch on the open market. I'm confident that the closer role is not going to be a sorespot on the team next year like it was last year and earlier in the year this year.

[XZero771679666304]

IMO, "nastiness" is reflected more in BAA than strikeout rates. There are plenty of guys with high k/9 who get hit hard.

 

If batter have a hard time squaring up and getting good wood on your pitches, you're nasty.

 

There are pitchers out there who have to use savvy and guile to be effective, and Dempster isn't one of them.

[mg420]

Per the DHL reliever award article for September, I'd say his numbers were outstanding.

 

13-13 in saves

0 ER in 16 games

19k/5BB in 15.2

not in Sept. but sick stats:

converted last 19 saves

21.1 scoreless innings in a row to close season

33-35 in saves for the season

57 relief appearances with a 1.85 ERA

 

To me that shows he was quite nasty as a closer.

 

his K/9 and BB/9 don't show nastiness. Not compared to the top closers.

 

if 33/35 with a 1.85 era is not nasty i dont know what is. i would take dempster closing with his numbers over farnsworth's great k/9 & bb/9 any day. who cares how many he k's or walks as long as he gets the job done.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Per the DHL reliever award article for September, I'd say his numbers were outstanding.

 

13-13 in saves

0 ER in 16 games

19k/5BB in 15.2

not in Sept. but sick stats:

converted last 19 saves

21.1 scoreless innings in a row to close season

33-35 in saves for the season

57 relief appearances with a 1.85 ERA

 

To me that shows he was quite nasty as a closer.

 

his K/9 and BB/9 don't show nastiness. Not compared to the top closers.

 

if 33/35 with a 1.85 era is not nasty i dont know what is. i would take dempster closing with his numbers over farnsworth's great k/9 & bb/9 any day. who cares how many he k's or walks as long as he gets the job done.

 

Because the hits and walks are much better indicators of what he will do in the future than Save percentage or ERA(especially for relievers).

[XZero771679666304]

Per the DHL reliever award article for September, I'd say his numbers were outstanding.

 

13-13 in saves

0 ER in 16 games

19k/5BB in 15.2

not in Sept. but sick stats:

converted last 19 saves

21.1 scoreless innings in a row to close season

33-35 in saves for the season

57 relief appearances with a 1.85 ERA

 

To me that shows he was quite nasty as a closer.

 

his K/9 and BB/9 don't show nastiness. Not compared to the top closers.

 

if 33/35 with a 1.85 era is not nasty i dont know what is. i would take dempster closing with his numbers over farnsworth's great k/9 & bb/9 any day. who cares how many he k's or walks as long as he gets the job done.

 

Because the hits and walks are much better indicators of what he will do in the future than Save percentage or ERA(especially for relievers).

 

And he gives up few hits, as his .218 BAA indicates. His WHIP as a closer is comparable to that of Lidge and Isringhausen, even with his walks.

[mg420]

Per the DHL reliever award article for September, I'd say his numbers were outstanding.

 

13-13 in saves

0 ER in 16 games

19k/5BB in 15.2

not in Sept. but sick stats:

converted last 19 saves

21.1 scoreless innings in a row to close season

33-35 in saves for the season

57 relief appearances with a 1.85 ERA

 

To me that shows he was quite nasty as a closer.

 

his K/9 and BB/9 don't show nastiness. Not compared to the top closers.

 

if 33/35 with a 1.85 era is not nasty i dont know what is. i would take dempster closing with his numbers over farnsworth's great k/9 & bb/9 any day. who cares how many he k's or walks as long as he gets the job done.

 

Because the hits and walks are much better indicators of what he will do in the future than Save percentage or ERA(especially for relievers).

 

i disagree. if this were true the farns & hawkins would be elite closers but they are not. the future is a big guess for every player no matter what #'s you consider. i think it's insane to say that dempster didnt have a great season as a closer last year because he walked too many & didnt have enough k's. he is the cubs closer the next 3 years regardless so lets hope he has another season in 06 like he had in 05.

[XZero771679666304]

Per the DHL reliever award article for September, I'd say his numbers were outstanding.

 

13-13 in saves

0 ER in 16 games

19k/5BB in 15.2

not in Sept. but sick stats:

converted last 19 saves

21.1 scoreless innings in a row to close season

33-35 in saves for the season

57 relief appearances with a 1.85 ERA

 

To me that shows he was quite nasty as a closer.

 

his K/9 and BB/9 don't show nastiness. Not compared to the top closers.

 

if 33/35 with a 1.85 era is not nasty i dont know what is. i would take dempster closing with his numbers over farnsworth's great k/9 & bb/9 any day. who cares how many he k's or walks as long as he gets the job done.

 

Because the hits and walks are much better indicators of what he will do in the future than Save percentage or ERA(especially for relievers).

 

i disagree. if this were true the farns & hawkins would be elite closers but they are not. the future is a big guess for every player no matter what #'s you consider. i think it's insane to say that dempster didnt have a great season as a closer last year because he walked too many & didnt have enough k's. he is the cubs closer the next 3 years regardless so lets hope he has another season in 06 like he had in 05.

 

Well, BAA and WHIP are more important indicators because they tell you how effective a pitcher is. But you still can't argue against Ryan's effectiveness based on those numbers.

 

1.85 ERA .218 BAA 1.25 WHIP 8.17 k/9 .943 SV PCT

 

Overall, all his numbers range from good-excellent except his BB rate, but that doesn't hurt his WHIP much.

 

If he had a .275 BAA, 1.40 WHIP and 5 k/9, I could see a potential problem. But those weren't his numbers, and I don't see anything to be remotely alarmed about.