Oh, so this is why Murton is successful........

[JC]

Cubsfanbeardsauce got b& too.

 

Nobody living in Alaska is smarter than me.

 

I mean, they live in Alaska. Come on.

 

Three words: Fort Wayne, Indiana.

 

Five more words: Home of the Cheese Toastie.

[Diffusion]

Referencing BA's top 100 prospect lists from 1990-2002 (Dusty was in charge from 1993-2002), here are some of the position prospects Dusty had to work with....

 

1990, BA #52, Steve Hosey, OF

1991 BA #83, Steve Hosey, OF

1992 BA #61, Steve Hosey, OF

1993 BA #83, Steve Hosey, OF

 

1991 BA #52, Steve Decker, C

 

1991 BA #23, Royce Clayton, SS

1992 BA #6, Royce Clayton, SS

 

1992 BA #95, Derek Reid, OF

 

1993 BA #33, Calvin Murray, OF

 

1994 BA #83, JR Phillips, 1B

1995 BA #73, JR Phillips, 1B

 

1995 BA #90, Dante Powell, OF

1997 BA #92, Dante Powell, OF

 

2001 BA #85, Lance Niekro, 3B

 

2001 BA #60, Tony Torcato, 3B

2002 BA #83, Tony Torcato, OF

 

Yes, literally, between 1997 and 2001, the Giants didn't have a single position prospect make the list. Wow.

 

Now of course, the list isn't definitive by any means. Matt Murton wasn't in the top 100 before this year, and he won't be on it next year, so if I were looking back on the Cubs in 10 years time using just the BA list as a measure of our prospects, he'd be left out too. So, bear in mind that this isn't designed to be comprehensive.

 

Let's take a closer look at the numbers of these prospects and how Dusty handled them, using the Baseball Cube. Please bear in mind that I know absolutely nothing about these prospects besides the numbers. If you know anything, and I’ve got something wrong, or you can fill gaps in my knowledge, go for it.

 

Steve Hosey

 

Hosey was a first-round draft pick out of college in 1989. He signed quickly enough that the Giants were able to assign him to play short season ball in the Northwest League that year, where his performance was mixed. He showed good power, hitting 13 home runs and 30 extra base hits in 288 at-bats for a .493 slugging percentage, and he hit .288 and stole 15 bases. However, he walked just 27 times while striking out 84 times, 84 times in 288 at-bats! Evidently he had serious problems making contact, but given that BA immediately put him into their top 100 at #52, and that he was a first-round draft pick, Hosey was very toolsy, power, speed, I’d bet he could field and throw too.

 

The next year the Giants gave Hosey a double promotion, sending him to San Hose (High-A, California League) instead of Clinton (Low-A). Hosey really struggled, hitting just .232 (in what’s a very hitter friendly league now at least, I suspect it probably was then too). He struck out 139 times in 479 at-bats, and his power slipped as he managed just 16 home runs and 35 extra base hits. He stole 16 bases, and walked 71 times, both of which were encouraging. But those strikeouts, again about one every 3.5 at-bats, were an extremely serious problem. BA dropped him down their top 100 list to #83.

 

Hosey was promoted again the next year though, so clearly he was very well thought of as a prospect. Again, I’m guessing very toolsy, makes the game look easy. So he went to Double-A and the Texas League (another league that right now is very hitter-friendly, I don’t know about then), where his average recovered to .293, and significantly he shed a lot of strikeouts, striking out just 88 times in 409 at-bats. That’s by no means fantastic, but it’s a big improvement. Hosey also walked a very decent 56 times, his power recovered a little as he hit 17 home runs and had 43 extra base hits for a .494 slugging, and he stole 26 bases on the year. Considering he was just 22, it was a good year, and BA pushed him back up their list to #61.

 

But 1992 was going to be very important for him. Hosey was promoted to Triple-A and the Pacific Coast League (again, right now a hitter-friendly league, may well have been back then too). The strikeouts remained about as frequent as at Double-A, 98 in 462 at-bats. And he hit .286. But worryingly he walked just 39 times, and his power took a dip too. He managed 45 extra-base hits, but just 10 of them were home runs. His slugging percentage was a very unimpressive .442.

 

All the same, Hosey was called up in September (Dusty Baker wasn’t yet the manager, he’d only take over the following year) and was given reasonably regular playing time, 14 starts, 7 appearances off the bench and 56 at-bats. Hosey though managed just .250/.241/.321. He didn’t walk once, struckout 15 times, had a sole 2B and a sole HR.

 

And then Dusty Baker took over in 1993. And Hosey’s career seemingly stops dead in his tracks. In early September that year, Hosey managed 2 at-bats, 1 hit and a walk in 3 games, all as a pinch-hitter. Otherwise he might as well have disappeared off the face of the planet for all I can tell. The Baseball Cube doesn’t have any minor league numbers listed for Hosey after 1992. What happened in 1993 to him then, I have no idea. Maybe he was injured. Maybe he played in the minors but Baseball Cube for some reason doesn’t list it. But, whatever, he didn’t play any more than those 3 games in the majors for Dusty Baker, and in March 1994 he was shipped off to the California Angels for a minor leaguer named Bob Gamez, who never made the majors. And that, as far as I can tell, was that, because there’s no record of Hosey after that that I can find. Interesting.

 

Steve Decker

 

Decker was a 21st round draft pick out of college in 1988. He signed quickly enough that he was assigned to the Northwest League in the same year, and in just 13 games there his numbers were good enough that he was promoted to High-A to finish the year. Between the two levels, fresh out of college, Decker hit .359 in 217 at-bats, with 6 home runs and 11 doubles, 28 walks and 26 strikeouts. My guess is that he was a defensive catcher, and that the hitting numbers, particularly the power, were a bit of a surprise. Otherwise there’s no way he’d have fallen to the 21st round.

 

Anyway, Decker started the following year at High-A again, but earned a promotion to Double-A before the year was out. Between the two he hit .302 with 55 walks and 60 strikeouts in 367 at-bats, but his power was unimpressive, as he managed just 4 home runs and 20 doubles, and a .390 slugging percentage. Though he stole 8 bases, I suspect Decker wasn’t very fast at all, being a catcher, and hardly ever hitting any triples. All the same, solid contact skills, can hit for average, not averse to the walk, good defence (I’m guessing), it’s a decent package.

 

In 1990 Decker remained at Double-A for pretty much the year, where he had a very fine season. He continued to hit for average (.293) and to show decent plate discipline (40 BB, 64 K in 403 AB). But the biggest difference was that Decker hit for power! To the tune of 15 homers, 22 doubles and triple, a .464 slugging percentage. Though he was now 24 and repeating the league, the Giants were impressed enough to give him a September callup, during which he hit .296/.309/.500 in 15 games, 14 starts and 54 at-bats, and BA was impressed enough to put him at #52 on their next prospect list.

 

The next two years Decker struggled though splitting time between San Francisco and Triple-A. He started the 1991 season as the big league catcher, but by June the Giants were losing patience with him hitting around the Mendoza line, and by July they’d had enough, so they sent him down and played Kirt Manwaring instead. Decker had managed to hit just .206/.262/.309 in 233 at-bats. He hadn’t struck out that much (44 times), but his walks dried up a bit (16), nothing went his way on balls in play (.229) and his 1990 power was beginning to look like a fluke (just 13 extra base hits). But in Triple-A he hit 6 home runs and 12 extra base hits in 111 at-bats to finish the year.

 

By the following year, which Decker spent almost entirely at Phoenix, he was back to being the same hitter he’d been in 1989. Average, not many strikeouts, decent number of walks, but not much power. He got a September callup, but he didn’t hit, and that was it. He was “lost” in the expansion draft to the Florida Marlins, and by the time Dusty Baker was appointed he was long gone. He never really amounted to much in the end in the majors, but continued to hit, and with a lot of power sometimes, in the minors. Anyway, he never had anything to do with Dusty with the exception of another stint with the Giants in 1996, by which time he was 30, when he again started the year as the big league catcher. This time though he didn’t actually do that badly, hitting .282/.356/.333 through May 21st, when the Giants decided enough was enough and relegated him to the bench. Between May 27th and August 9th, off the bench, Decker went 1-for-33!

 

Royce Clayton

 

You’ve probably at least heard of this guy. Drafted in 1988 out of High School, in the first round, let’s just say Clayton was picked for his defence at shortstop. But he was fast, young, projectible, and he would always have that good defence to fall back on. His minor league career with the bat though, was pretty much a write-off.

 

Clayton started out in the Northwest League in 1988, where he hit .259 and slugged .321 in 212 at-bats, managing just 4 doubles and 3 homers to go with a handy number of walks (27) and more strikeouts (54). He also stole 10 bases. The speed and the walks were promising, but for someone so devoid of power, those strikeouts didn’t look particularly good, and that’s why he managed just .259.

 

Which was better than he managed the next year. Promoted to the Midwest League (Low-A), Clayton hit just .236 and slugged just .286 in 385 at-bats. Eww. He managed just 16 extra base hits, not one of them a home run, walked a decent 39 times but struck out on a staggering 101 occasions. I can only guess then it was the stealing of 28 bases that earned him a promotion to High-A to finish the year. There, in 92 at-bats, things got even worse. He hit just .120 and slugged .141. 11 hits, 2 of them doubles that is. He walked a very useful 13 times, and he stole another 10 bases, which is pretty impressive considering he was on base just 24 times or so, but struck out 27 times. All in all, ugly, but he was still just 19 I suppose.

 

The next two years were a lot better for Clayton. The first he spent at High-A again, the second at Double-A. The seasons were actually pretty similar. He hit .267 and .280 respectively, which is okay, with 68 and 61 walks, which is excellent, and 98 and 104 strikeouts, which is better but still far from perfect. He stole 33 and 36 bases, so he could really run, and, importantly, he started to show more power. A lot more, banging out 37 doubles, 18 triples and 12 home runs the two years combined. That meant he had a slugging percentage over 100 points more than his average! Wow! The Giants were so amazed they gave him a cup of coffee in September 1991, which Clayton didn’t like the taste of, struggling in a mere 26 at-bats.

 

Clayton though was made the Giants’ starting shortstop in 1992. And Baseball America liked him, they rated him the 6th best prospect in baseball. And though he didn’t do that well, hitting .224/.281/.308 in 321 at-bats and requiring a two month stint at Triple-A in the middle, Dusty Baker liked him enough that when he took charge for the 1993 season, he let Clayton continue in the starting shortstop role, a role he didn’t lose until after the 1995 season when he was traded to the Cardinals, despite being, for the most part, absolutely awful with the bat. Whatever BA saw in him that gave them hope he might one day be able to hit wasn’t particularly well founded.

 

Dusty Baker treated him somewhat like Corey Patterson. He was already in the job, there weren’t any better options, so Dusty stuck by him. It also looks to me like Dusty saw a lot of Neifi Perez qualities in him. He could play defence at shortstop, he could run a bit (though Neifi can’t) and steal, he could bunt. Ridiculously though Dusty batted Clayton 6th and 7th almost the entire time in those three years. But, for some reason, Corey and Neifi had to bat 1st and 2nd. Hmm. Anyway, I don’t think it’s fair to say Dusty ruined Clayton as a prospect. He just never was that much of one to begin with.

 

Derek Reid

 

27th round draft pick in 1990, but he never made the majors and I’ve got no minor league numbers for him. Made the BA list in #95 in 1992, maybe he was blocked by Barry Bonds.

 

Calvin Murray

 

Murray was the 11th pick of the 1989 draft by the Indians, but he decided to go to college. Three years later he went 7th overall to the Giants, an outfielder out of the University of Texas. Before he’d even played a game in the minor leagues, BA had him on their list, at #33 as well. He was clearly a big, big prospect. But as soon as he started playing games, they took him off the list. And who can blame them. Even if you’d had no expectations of the guy, you’d have been disappointed by what he did.

 

Murray started the 1993 season at High-A, where he performed well, .281 in 345 at-bats with 40 walks and 63 strikeouts, 24 doubles, 9 home runs, .435 slugging, 42 stolen bases. This was clearly a five-tool talent. All that was needed was the power to fully emerge as it surely would and he’d be in the majors in no time. Except when Murray was promoted to Double-A mid-season 1993, he was awful, hitting just .188 and slugging .232 in 138 at-bats. What the problem was isn’t clear. He walked (14 times), he didn’t strike out that much (29), he still stole bases (12). But he didn’t connect for a single home run, and he didn’t get many other hits either. He got a 5 game stint at Triple-A to finish his debut year, but nothing doing. He didn’t hit a home run there either. And for the next four years (yes, four years!), it was pretty much the same story. Bouncing between Double-A and Triple-A, Murray hit for pathetic averages and pathetic power, stole loads of bases, drew plenty of walks and didn’t strikeout that much. At the end of 1997, it must have looked as though it’d never happen for him, that he’d never make the big leagues at all. All he needed was the power, and balls in play to stop being so mean, and he’d be there.

 

Well, in 1998, spending time at Double-A for the sixth season running, now aged 27, the balls in play did at last come and Murray hit .309 overall. He drew more walks than strikeouts, stole lots of bases, even the power wasn’t as awful as it had been, though it still wasn’t good. But again he went to Triple-A towards the end of the season, and reverted back to his old self. But in 1999, it happened! Murray hit for power! Six years too late, but Murray hit for power! 23 home runs, 31 doubles, 7 triples, a .542 slugging percentage, and the five tool talent drew his walks, didn’t strike out too much, stole 42 bases, hit .334, scored a ridiculous 122 runs in 130 games. Six years too late! But the Giants rewarded Murray with a September callup, and he pinch-hit a number of times, but didn’t really do much.

 

Murray stuck in the big leagues in 2000 and 2001, he got playing time off the bench and quite a few starts too, especially in 2001, but he was pretty rubbish, he didn’t hit for average or power, and when he started 2002 0-for-12, the Giants were fed up with him, and they just let him go to Texas. No big loss. Did Dusty ruin him? No way.

 

JR Phillips

 

Phillips was drafted out of HS in 1988 in the 4th round by the California Angels, and in his time in their minor league system, he struck out at simply staggering rates. 70 times in 210 at-bats in the short season A-ball in ’88, 78 times in 237 at-bats at the same level in ’90, 146 times in 442 at-bats at Low-A in ’89, 58 times in 162 at-bats at High-A in ’90 and 144 times in 471 at-bats at the same level a year later, and 165 times in 497 at-bats at Double-A in ’92. Wow. The guy had absolutely enormous problems getting his bat to hit the baseball. As a result, his minor league batting averages start… .190, .192, .198, .194… Wow. The guy was a natural .190 hitter for his first two and a half years out of high school, some 1000+ at-bats! And he didn’t walk anything more than a decent amount either. He must have had some ugly OBPs.

 

That said, he was clearly expected to be a power threat, and eventually, by 1991, he did emerge as one when he bashed 20 home runs in 130 games at High-A, with 22 doubles too. Not amazing power, but decent. It got his average up to .248 at least. The following year though he hit 32 doubles but just 14 home runs, and his slugging percentage dropped to just .402, and 165 strikeouts to 32 walks wasn’t cutting it. The Angels tried to pass him through waivers. The Giants said “why thankyou” and claimed him.

 

And at Triple-A the next year, Phillips mashed 27 home runs and 35 doubles in 506 at-bats, he walked more and struck out less, his average was .263 and his slugging .500. Phillips got a very short cup of coffee in September, and hit a double, triple and home run. Baseball America, obviously impressed by his power, put him on the back end of its list. Phillips went back to Triple-A the next year and hit 27 home runs, 28 doubles, 5 triples even in 360 at-bats. Despite 96 strikeouts still, all that power was enough to give him a .300 average and a .631 slugging. He got another cup of coffee, in June, but didn’t stay for long since despite some reasonably regular playing time, he flopped.

 

Phillips, now 25, was given the Giants’ first base job at the beginning of the 1995 season (which was late April due to the strike), hitting 6-8 in the order. He played everyday, but after a month he was hitting .101/.183/.242 in 99 at-bats. He spent the rest of the year on the bench, pinch-hitting with just the occasional start. By the end of the year he’d raised his line to .195/.256/.351 in 231 at-bats, with 19 walks, 69 strikeouts, 9 home runs and 9 doubles. Rubbish, frankly, and he was sent to the Phillies to the following year. He didn’t hit there or anywhere else, except in Triple-A. Playing for the Colorado Springs (Rockies’ Triple-A affiliate) in 1999 he hit 41 home runs in a year. He spent 2005 in the Astros’ system.

 

Dusty didn’t ruin him either. He just struckout too much, he wasn’t good enough, simple as that. He got a shot, and he was awful. 10-for-99, .101. That says it all.

 

Dante Powell

 

The amazing list of Giants position prospects continues with Dante Powell, who was their first round draft pick in 1994, going 22nd overall. The BlueJays tried to sign him out of HS in 1991, but he obviously elected to go to college. A toolsy guy by the looks of things then, because as with Calvin Murray, it was out of the draft and straight onto the top prospect list.

 

Powell went to the Northwest League straight out of college, that’s short season A-ball. He put up decent numbers, hitting .309 and slugging .503, 27 stolen bases, 19 walks, 15 doubles, triple, 5 home runs, but he also struck out 47 times. Warning sign.

 

In 1995 Powell was promoted to High-A, where he spent the whole year. But because he struck out 131 times in 505 at-bats, he hit just .248. He managed just 10 home runs, 23 doubles and 8 triples, good just for .384 slugging. He stole 43 bases, and walked 46 times. What is it with the Giants and toolsy outfielders? Or is it BA? Whatever, will they never learn?

 

The next year Powell took what looked like a step forward at Double-A. He hit 21 home runs, 27 doubles in 508 at-bats, he struck out just 98 times and walked an impressive 72 times, he stole 43 bases again, overall he hit .280 and slugged .465. For a 22-year old at Double-A, not bad, there’s potential there.

 

But apparently there wasn’t. Powell went to Triple-A the next year and the walks went back down, the power back down, the average back down, the only thing that went up was the strikeouts. Even his stolen bases went down, though he still stole 34. Overall he hit .241 and slugged .385, which is pretty much what he did at High-A two years earlier. He had a stint in April/May in the majors, and a cup of coffee, but he mostly sat on the bench and didn’t do enough to earn a spot the next year, 1998. Instead he went back to Triple-A, and got worse. The power still wasn’t there, but his strikeouts took a big leap in the wrong direction to 138 K in 448 AB. He walked a lot too, 71 times, and stole 41 bases, but overall he hit just .230 and slugged just .375.

 

And that was the end of Powell with the Giants. He was traded to the Diamondbacks after 1998 for Alan Embree, and ended up getting just 31 major-league at-bats the rest of his career while doing nothing in the minors. Did Dusty ruin him? Hardly.

 

Lance Niekro

 

Didn’t make it to the majors in time to meet Dusty

 

Tony Torcato

 

Got a cup of coffee in 2002, but there was no case for him to be playing full time at any stage before that. He wasn’t hitting that much at Triple-A. Still isn’t, as a matter of fact.

 

 

 

So there are all the “top prospects” the Giants provided Dusty with in his time there. Not a single good one amongst them, I can’t blame him for not building a team around them.

[bobbyd20]

Whether Dusty has had many young prospects who turned into major league players is irrelevant in the discussion of why it took him so long to play Murton everyday. Murton has hit at every level this season.

 

 

.342 at AA before being called up

.339 when he was sent to AAA

.353 during his 10 days at AAA

.340 currently

 

I think he has established that he should be in the lineup everyday. But, Dusty in his infinite wisdom only used him for 11 at-bats during a 12 day stretch in late July-early Aug (July 27-Aug 7) when his average was above .400 and many of the veterans were really struggling. Why didn't Dusty play him more then?

 

And why does Dusty refuse to use him at the top of the lineup? His OBP is .405, he shows patience at the plate and he runs well. All things I like to see from a guy hitting at the top of the lineup. But not Dusty. He's only used Murton in the 1 or 2 spots in the order for 11 at-bats (about 10%). But, he continues to trot out his boy Neifi (.301 OBP percentage and zero plate discipline) nearly 65% of the time in front of Derrek Lee.

 

I don't think Dusty's refusal to play Murton everyday is what's keeping this ballclub from the playoffs. But, I do believe that his boneheaded lineups have cost the Cubs at least 10 wins this season, specifically the guys he uses at the top of the lineup (especially during the first four months of the season when Lee was the best hitter in baseball).

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Only the Baker haters see it as "Dusty taking all the credit." Baker complimented Murton by saying the kid's impressing him.

 

I don't see how Murton deserved to play over a proven player like Lawton. I wish Baker would have taken Burnitz out of the lineup and went w/ Murton in LF and Lawton in RF, but lots of managers would have went w/ the vet Burnitz even though he was slumping terribly.

 

As for being upset, the one's who seem to be upset are those who constantly nitpick Baker over not developing young players. Baker hasn't had much to develop. I guess the fact that Novoa, Ohman and Wuertz are solid relievers is irrelevant.

 

But the fact of the matter is that if Murton had been given full-time status in early July when he was first called up instead of Hollandsworth, who had done nothing all season, then we may never have had to make the trade for Lawton in the first place.

 

The fact is, we called up a young guy and Dusty wouldn't play him, even though he hit from the moment he arrived. Now that he is playing nearly everyday, Dusty is trying to take credit for it, when it is possible this team would be in a much better position had Murton played everyday when he arrived and not since mid-August.

[Diffusion]

Whether Dusty has had many young prospects who turned into major league players is irrelevant in the discussion of why it took him so long to play Murton everyday.

 

It's not irrelevant if people want to try and fiction a history of Dusty Baker as a positional prospect wrecker.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Whether Dusty has had many young prospects who turned into major league players is irrelevant in the discussion of why it took him so long to play Murton everyday.

 

It's not irrelevant if people want to try and fiction a history of Dusty Baker as a positional prospect wrecker.

 

What do you think of the positional prospect situations since he's been with the Cubs? Hill getting sent to AAA over Lenny Harris, Choi/Karros/Simon, Dubois and Murton/Holla, Lawton, and Hairston? I'm genuinely curious, I don't recall you ever saying anything about those circumstances.

[goonys evil twin]

Whether Dusty has had many young prospects who turned into major league players is irrelevant in the discussion of why it took him so long to play Murton everyday.

 

It's not irrelevant if people want to try and fiction a history of Dusty Baker as a positional prospect wrecker.

 

I wouldn't say he's a wrecker, I'd just say he's never shown an ability to develop young position players, and he's repeatedly given free passes to inept veterans who hold back the team. Those were two very important things to think about before he was hired, when this organization was filled with highly rated prospects and the team was poised to achieve great success if those players were developed into solid big leaguers.

[CubinNY]

This is about the 6th or 7th permutation of this arguemnt.

 

It goes like this: Dusty can't be faulted for not playing rookies b/c he's never had a rookie who turned out to be any good.

 

That is illogical for several reasons:

 

1. Affirming the consequent- The absense of evidence of goodness is a non sequiter. It is irrelavent. It is also drawing an affirmitive conclusion from a negative premise. Which leads to:

 

2. False premise- The said rookie does not have to go on and have great career to jusfify playing him over a vertran who has had a great career. I could dig up Babe Ruth's bones and throw them in RF and they would not be better than David Kelton. Even though Kelton will not have the career of Ruth. I would argue that if Dubios was given the opportuntiy to start in left field from Spring Training he would have out produced Hollandsworth this year. Instead he was given about five weeks of inconsistent starts under conditions that were not condusive to developing whatever talent he has.

 

I could go on but I'll leave it at that.

 

All we have to work on is Dusty's record. And the record shows he does not play young positions players if a "proven vetran" is available.

Edited September 21, 2005 by CubinNY

[brinoch]

The Choi/Karros/Simon analysis Tim did is quite illuminating, and if I have time later today, I'll link it. For the sake of fair analysis, let's just look at the Cubs and their players. We don't know that much about the San Francisco system and the prospects they provided during the time Baker was there.

 

However, we know a lot about Dusty's habits with respect to Cubs prospects.

 

We can debate, at length, whether Hill, Choi, Dubois, Kelton, or Harris were ever going to make it as everyday MLB players. However, with the look that we've had at Cedeno and Murton, it's pretty hard to justify keeping them out of the lineup for Neifi Perez and Todd Hollandsworth.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The said rookie does not have to go on and have great career to jusfify playing him over a vertran who has had a great career.

[gus_dog]

This is about the 6th or 7th permutation of this arguemnt.

 

It goes like this: Dusty can be faulted for not playing rookies b/c he's never had a rookie who turned out to be any good.

 

That is illogical for several reasons:

 

1. Affirming the consequent- The absense of evidence of goodness is a non sequiter. It is irrelavent. It is also drawing an affirmitive conclusion from a negative premise. Which leads to:

 

2. False premise- The said rookie does not have to go on and have great career to jusfify playing him over a vertran who has had a great career. I could dig up Babe Ruth's bones and throw them in RF and they would not be better than David Kelton. Even though Kelton will not have the career of Ruth. I would argue that if Dubios was given the opportuntiy to start in left field from Spring Training he would have out produced Hollandsworth this year. Instead he was given about five weeks of inconsistent starts under conditions that were not condusive to developing whatever talent he has.

 

I could go on but I'll leave it at that.

 

All we have to work on is Dusty's record. And the record shows he does not play young positions players if a "proven vetran" is available.

 

In addition to this, I also would say that it is highly illogical, and really, just bad business to run the club the way Dusty does. He states that he 'owes' starts to Neifi because he performed very well in April/May. If you have a better option, go with it. Neifi, is a good player, and I like him as a back-up, but nothing, and I mean NOTHING is 'owed' to Perez that he doesn't 'owe' to any other player on the roster, which is a fair shot at playing. As is, Cedeño got screwed because of Dusty 'owing' Perez something.

[imb]

The said rookie does not have to go on and have great career to jusfify playing him over a vertran who has had a great career.

 

Exactly, this is the argument.

[CubfaninCA]

Only the Baker haters see it as "Dusty taking all the credit." Baker complimented Murton by saying the kid's impressing him.

 

I don't see how Murton deserved to play over a proven player like Lawton. I wish Baker would have taken Burnitz out of the lineup and went w/ Murton in LF and Lawton in RF, but lots of managers would have went w/ the vet Burnitz even though he was slumping terribly.

 

As for being upset, the one's who seem to be upset are those who constantly nitpick Baker over not developing young players. Baker hasn't had much to develop. I guess the fact that Novoa, Ohman and Wuertz are solid relievers is irrelevant.

 

But the fact of the matter is that if Murton had been given full-time status in early July when he was first called up instead of Hollandsworth, who had done nothing all season, then we may never have had to make the trade for Lawton in the first place.

 

The fact is, we called up a young guy and Dusty wouldn't play him, even though he hit from the moment he arrived. Now that he is playing nearly everyday, Dusty is trying to take credit for it, when it is possible this team would be in a much better position had Murton played everyday when he arrived and not since mid-August.

 

That's just an assumption though.

 

There was no need to put Murton in the deep end of the pool from day one, and the Lawton trade was a good trade. Unfortunatley Lawton choked in Chicago. I don't see why putting a young guy in situations where they're at more of an advantage is scoffed at. Put Murton in there against righties everyday from day one and he could have started out 2-30. Yes, he could rebound like other's have, but also it could have stunted his growth. Basically, all I'm saying is this stuff about Baker not developing players is blown way out of proportion.

[Derwood]

I would argue that Baker "owes" it to Hendry to play the players given to him. If Hendry wants to see Murton play, that's what Baker should do. End of argument.

[UK1679666180]

If Baker's inability to develop position prospects was the only strike against him, I would have problem with him coming back.

 

Larger factors into the equation are his inability to be an in-game manager, he has little concept of how to manage a bullpen or bench and he is too careless with pitchers.

[CubfaninCA]

Referencing BA's top 100 prospect lists from 1990-2002 (Dusty was in charge from 1993-2002), here are some of the position prospects Dusty had to work with....

 

1990, BA #52, Steve Hosey, OF

1991 BA #83, Steve Hosey, OF

1992 BA #61, Steve Hosey, OF

1993 BA #83, Steve Hosey, OF

 

1991 BA #52, Steve Decker, C

 

1991 BA #23, Royce Clayton, SS

1992 BA #6, Royce Clayton, SS

 

1992 BA #95, Derek Reid, OF

 

1993 BA #33, Calvin Murray, OF

 

1994 BA #83, JR Phillips, 1B

1995 BA #73, JR Phillips, 1B

 

1995 BA #90, Dante Powell, OF

1997 BA #92, Dante Powell, OF

 

2001 BA #85, Lance Niekro, 3B

 

2001 BA #60, Tony Torcato, 3B

2002 BA #83, Tony Torcato, OF

 

Yes, literally, between 1997 and 2001, the Giants didn't have a single position prospect make the list. Wow.

 

Now of course, the list isn't definitive by any means. Matt Murton wasn't in the top 100 before this year, and he won't be on it next year, so if I were looking back on the Cubs in 10 years time using just the BA list as a measure of our prospects, he'd be left out too. So, bear in mind that this isn't designed to be comprehensive.

 

Let's take a closer look at the numbers of these prospects and how Dusty handled them, using the Baseball Cube. Please bear in mind that I know absolutely nothing about these prospects besides the numbers. If you know anything, and I’ve got something wrong, or you can fill gaps in my knowledge, go for it.

 

Steve Hosey

 

Hosey was a first-round draft pick out of college in 1989. He signed quickly enough that the Giants were able to assign him to play short season ball in the Northwest League that year, where his performance was mixed. He showed good power, hitting 13 home runs and 30 extra base hits in 288 at-bats for a .493 slugging percentage, and he hit .288 and stole 15 bases. However, he walked just 27 times while striking out 84 times, 84 times in 288 at-bats! Evidently he had serious problems making contact, but given that BA immediately put him into their top 100 at #52, and that he was a first-round draft pick, Hosey was very toolsy, power, speed, I’d bet he could field and throw too.

 

The next year the Giants gave Hosey a double promotion, sending him to San Hose (High-A, California League) instead of Clinton (Low-A). Hosey really struggled, hitting just .232 (in what’s a very hitter friendly league now at least, I suspect it probably was then too). He struck out 139 times in 479 at-bats, and his power slipped as he managed just 16 home runs and 35 extra base hits. He stole 16 bases, and walked 71 times, both of which were encouraging. But those strikeouts, again about one every 3.5 at-bats, were an extremely serious problem. BA dropped him down their top 100 list to #83.

 

Hosey was promoted again the next year though, so clearly he was very well thought of as a prospect. Again, I’m guessing very toolsy, makes the game look easy. So he went to Double-A and the Texas League (another league that right now is very hitter-friendly, I don’t know about then), where his average recovered to .293, and significantly he shed a lot of strikeouts, striking out just 88 times in 409 at-bats. That’s by no means fantastic, but it’s a big improvement. Hosey also walked a very decent 56 times, his power recovered a little as he hit 17 home runs and had 43 extra base hits for a .494 slugging, and he stole 26 bases on the year. Considering he was just 22, it was a good year, and BA pushed him back up their list to #61.

 

But 1992 was going to be very important for him. Hosey was promoted to Triple-A and the Pacific Coast League (again, right now a hitter-friendly league, may well have been back then too). The strikeouts remained about as frequent as at Double-A, 98 in 462 at-bats. And he hit .286. But worryingly he walked just 39 times, and his power took a dip too. He managed 45 extra-base hits, but just 10 of them were home runs. His slugging percentage was a very unimpressive .442.

 

All the same, Hosey was called up in September (Dusty Baker wasn’t yet the manager, he’d only take over the following year) and was given reasonably regular playing time, 14 starts, 7 appearances off the bench and 56 at-bats. Hosey though managed just .250/.241/.321. He didn’t walk once, struckout 15 times, had a sole 2B and a sole HR.

 

And then Dusty Baker took over in 1993. And Hosey’s career seemingly stops dead in his tracks. In early September that year, Hosey managed 2 at-bats, 1 hit and a walk in 3 games, all as a pinch-hitter. Otherwise he might as well have disappeared off the face of the planet for all I can tell. The Baseball Cube doesn’t have any minor league numbers listed for Hosey after 1992. What happened in 1993 to him then, I have no idea. Maybe he was injured. Maybe he played in the minors but Baseball Cube for some reason doesn’t list it. But, whatever, he didn’t play any more than those 3 games in the majors for Dusty Baker, and in March 1994 he was shipped off to the California Angels for a minor leaguer named Bob Gamez, who never made the majors. And that, as far as I can tell, was that, because there’s no record of Hosey after that that I can find. Interesting.

 

Steve Decker

 

Decker was a 21st round draft pick out of college in 1988. He signed quickly enough that he was assigned to the Northwest League in the same year, and in just 13 games there his numbers were good enough that he was promoted to High-A to finish the year. Between the two levels, fresh out of college, Decker hit .359 in 217 at-bats, with 6 home runs and 11 doubles, 28 walks and 26 strikeouts. My guess is that he was a defensive catcher, and that the hitting numbers, particularly the power, were a bit of a surprise. Otherwise there’s no way he’d have fallen to the 21st round.

 

Anyway, Decker started the following year at High-A again, but earned a promotion to Double-A before the year was out. Between the two he hit .302 with 55 walks and 60 strikeouts in 367 at-bats, but his power was unimpressive, as he managed just 4 home runs and 20 doubles, and a .390 slugging percentage. Though he stole 8 bases, I suspect Decker wasn’t very fast at all, being a catcher, and hardly ever hitting any triples. All the same, solid contact skills, can hit for average, not averse to the walk, good defence (I’m guessing), it’s a decent package.

 

In 1990 Decker remained at Double-A for pretty much the year, where he had a very fine season. He continued to hit for average (.293) and to show decent plate discipline (40 BB, 64 K in 403 AB). But the biggest difference was that Decker hit for power! To the tune of 15 homers, 22 doubles and triple, a .464 slugging percentage. Though he was now 24 and repeating the league, the Giants were impressed enough to give him a September callup, during which he hit .296/.309/.500 in 15 games, 14 starts and 54 at-bats, and BA was impressed enough to put him at #52 on their next prospect list.

 

The next two years Decker struggled though splitting time between San Francisco and Triple-A. He started the 1991 season as the big league catcher, but by June the Giants were losing patience with him hitting around the Mendoza line, and by July they’d had enough, so they sent him down and played Kirt Manwaring instead. Decker had managed to hit just .206/.262/.309 in 233 at-bats. He hadn’t struck out that much (44 times), but his walks dried up a bit (16), nothing went his way on balls in play (.229) and his 1990 power was beginning to look like a fluke (just 13 extra base hits). But in Triple-A he hit 6 home runs and 12 extra base hits in 111 at-bats to finish the year.

 

By the following year, which Decker spent almost entirely at Phoenix, he was back to being the same hitter he’d been in 1989. Average, not many strikeouts, decent number of walks, but not much power. He got a September callup, but he didn’t hit, and that was it. He was “lost” in the expansion draft to the Florida Marlins, and by the time Dusty Baker was appointed he was long gone. He never really amounted to much in the end in the majors, but continued to hit, and with a lot of power sometimes, in the minors. Anyway, he never had anything to do with Dusty with the exception of another stint with the Giants in 1996, by which time he was 30, when he again started the year as the big league catcher. This time though he didn’t actually do that badly, hitting .282/.356/.333 through May 21st, when the Giants decided enough was enough and relegated him to the bench. Between May 27th and August 9th, off the bench, Decker went 1-for-33!

 

Royce Clayton

 

You’ve probably at least heard of this guy. Drafted in 1988 out of High School, in the first round, let’s just say Clayton was picked for his defence at shortstop. But he was fast, young, projectible, and he would always have that good defence to fall back on. His minor league career with the bat though, was pretty much a write-off.

 

Clayton started out in the Northwest League in 1988, where he hit .259 and slugged .321 in 212 at-bats, managing just 4 doubles and 3 homers to go with a handy number of walks (27) and more strikeouts (54). He also stole 10 bases. The speed and the walks were promising, but for someone so devoid of power, those strikeouts didn’t look particularly good, and that’s why he managed just .259.

 

Which was better than he managed the next year. Promoted to the Midwest League (Low-A), Clayton hit just .236 and slugged just .286 in 385 at-bats. Eww. He managed just 16 extra base hits, not one of them a home run, walked a decent 39 times but struck out on a staggering 101 occasions. I can only guess then it was the stealing of 28 bases that earned him a promotion to High-A to finish the year. There, in 92 at-bats, things got even worse. He hit just .120 and slugged .141. 11 hits, 2 of them doubles that is. He walked a very useful 13 times, and he stole another 10 bases, which is pretty impressive considering he was on base just 24 times or so, but struck out 27 times. All in all, ugly, but he was still just 19 I suppose.

 

The next two years were a lot better for Clayton. The first he spent at High-A again, the second at Double-A. The seasons were actually pretty similar. He hit .267 and .280 respectively, which is okay, with 68 and 61 walks, which is excellent, and 98 and 104 strikeouts, which is better but still far from perfect. He stole 33 and 36 bases, so he could really run, and, importantly, he started to show more power. A lot more, banging out 37 doubles, 18 triples and 12 home runs the two years combined. That meant he had a slugging percentage over 100 points more than his average! Wow! The Giants were so amazed they gave him a cup of coffee in September 1991, which Clayton didn’t like the taste of, struggling in a mere 26 at-bats.

 

Clayton though was made the Giants’ starting shortstop in 1992. And Baseball America liked him, they rated him the 6th best prospect in baseball. And though he didn’t do that well, hitting .224/.281/.308 in 321 at-bats and requiring a two month stint at Triple-A in the middle, Dusty Baker liked him enough that when he took charge for the 1993 season, he let Clayton continue in the starting shortstop role, a role he didn’t lose until after the 1995 season when he was traded to the Cardinals, despite being, for the most part, absolutely awful with the bat. Whatever BA saw in him that gave them hope he might one day be able to hit wasn’t particularly well founded.

 

Dusty Baker treated him somewhat like Corey Patterson. He was already in the job, there weren’t any better options, so Dusty stuck by him. It also looks to me like Dusty saw a lot of Neifi Perez qualities in him. He could play defence at shortstop, he could run a bit (though Neifi can’t) and steal, he could bunt. Ridiculously though Dusty batted Clayton 6th and 7th almost the entire time in those three years. But, for some reason, Corey and Neifi had to bat 1st and 2nd. Hmm. Anyway, I don’t think it’s fair to say Dusty ruined Clayton as a prospect. He just never was that much of one to begin with.

 

Derek Reid

 

27th round draft pick in 1990, but he never made the majors and I’ve got no minor league numbers for him. Made the BA list in #95 in 1992, maybe he was blocked by Barry Bonds.

 

Calvin Murray

 

Murray was the 11th pick of the 1989 draft by the Indians, but he decided to go to college. Three years later he went 7th overall to the Giants, an outfielder out of the University of Texas. Before he’d even played a game in the minor leagues, BA had him on their list, at #33 as well. He was clearly a big, big prospect. But as soon as he started playing games, they took him off the list. And who can blame them. Even if you’d had no expectations of the guy, you’d have been disappointed by what he did.

 

Murray started the 1993 season at High-A, where he performed well, .281 in 345 at-bats with 40 walks and 63 strikeouts, 24 doubles, 9 home runs, .435 slugging, 42 stolen bases. This was clearly a five-tool talent. All that was needed was the power to fully emerge as it surely would and he’d be in the majors in no time. Except when Murray was promoted to Double-A mid-season 1993, he was awful, hitting just .188 and slugging .232 in 138 at-bats. What the problem was isn’t clear. He walked (14 times), he didn’t strike out that much (29), he still stole bases (12). But he didn’t connect for a single home run, and he didn’t get many other hits either. He got a 5 game stint at Triple-A to finish his debut year, but nothing doing. He didn’t hit a home run there either. And for the next four years (yes, four years!), it was pretty much the same story. Bouncing between Double-A and Triple-A, Murray hit for pathetic averages and pathetic power, stole loads of bases, drew plenty of walks and didn’t strikeout that much. At the end of 1997, it must have looked as though it’d never happen for him, that he’d never make the big leagues at all. All he needed was the power, and balls in play to stop being so mean, and he’d be there.

 

Well, in 1998, spending time at Double-A for the sixth season running, now aged 27, the balls in play did at last come and Murray hit .309 overall. He drew more walks than strikeouts, stole lots of bases, even the power wasn’t as awful as it had been, though it still wasn’t good. But again he went to Triple-A towards the end of the season, and reverted back to his old self. But in 1999, it happened! Murray hit for power! Six years too late, but Murray hit for power! 23 home runs, 31 doubles, 7 triples, a .542 slugging percentage, and the five tool talent drew his walks, didn’t strike out too much, stole 42 bases, hit .334, scored a ridiculous 122 runs in 130 games. Six years too late! But the Giants rewarded Murray with a September callup, and he pinch-hit a number of times, but didn’t really do much.

 

Murray stuck in the big leagues in 2000 and 2001, he got playing time off the bench and quite a few starts too, especially in 2001, but he was pretty rubbish, he didn’t hit for average or power, and when he started 2002 0-for-12, the Giants were fed up with him, and they just let him go to Texas. No big loss. Did Dusty ruin him? No way.

 

JR Phillips

 

Phillips was drafted out of HS in 1988 in the 4th round by the California Angels, and in his time in their minor league system, he struck out at simply staggering rates. 70 times in 210 at-bats in the short season A-ball in ’88, 78 times in 237 at-bats at the same level in ’90, 146 times in 442 at-bats at Low-A in ’89, 58 times in 162 at-bats at High-A in ’90 and 144 times in 471 at-bats at the same level a year later, and 165 times in 497 at-bats at Double-A in ’92. Wow. The guy had absolutely enormous problems getting his bat to hit the baseball. As a result, his minor league batting averages start… .190, .192, .198, .194… Wow. The guy was a natural .190 hitter for his first two and a half years out of high school, some 1000+ at-bats! And he didn’t walk anything more than a decent amount either. He must have had some ugly OBPs.

 

That said, he was clearly expected to be a power threat, and eventually, by 1991, he did emerge as one when he bashed 20 home runs in 130 games at High-A, with 22 doubles too. Not amazing power, but decent. It got his average up to .248 at least. The following year though he hit 32 doubles but just 14 home runs, and his slugging percentage dropped to just .402, and 165 strikeouts to 32 walks wasn’t cutting it. The Angels tried to pass him through waivers. The Giants said “why thankyou” and claimed him.

 

And at Triple-A the next year, Phillips mashed 27 home runs and 35 doubles in 506 at-bats, he walked more and struck out less, his average was .263 and his slugging .500. Phillips got a very short cup of coffee in September, and hit a double, triple and home run. Baseball America, obviously impressed by his power, put him on the back end of its list. Phillips went back to Triple-A the next year and hit 27 home runs, 28 doubles, 5 triples even in 360 at-bats. Despite 96 strikeouts still, all that power was enough to give him a .300 average and a .631 slugging. He got another cup of coffee, in June, but didn’t stay for long since despite some reasonably regular playing time, he flopped.

 

Phillips, now 25, was given the Giants’ first base job at the beginning of the 1995 season (which was late April due to the strike), hitting 6-8 in the order. He played everyday, but after a month he was hitting .101/.183/.242 in 99 at-bats. He spent the rest of the year on the bench, pinch-hitting with just the occasional start. By the end of the year he’d raised his line to .195/.256/.351 in 231 at-bats, with 19 walks, 69 strikeouts, 9 home runs and 9 doubles. Rubbish, frankly, and he was sent to the Phillies to the following year. He didn’t hit there or anywhere else, except in Triple-A. Playing for the Colorado Springs (Rockies’ Triple-A affiliate) in 1999 he hit 41 home runs in a year. He spent 2005 in the Astros’ system.

 

Dusty didn’t ruin him either. He just struckout too much, he wasn’t good enough, simple as that. He got a shot, and he was awful. 10-for-99, .101. That says it all.

 

Dante Powell

 

The amazing list of Giants position prospects continues with Dante Powell, who was their first round draft pick in 1994, going 22nd overall. The BlueJays tried to sign him out of HS in 1991, but he obviously elected to go to college. A toolsy guy by the looks of things then, because as with Calvin Murray, it was out of the draft and straight onto the top prospect list.

 

Powell went to the Northwest League straight out of college, that’s short season A-ball. He put up decent numbers, hitting .309 and slugging .503, 27 stolen bases, 19 walks, 15 doubles, triple, 5 home runs, but he also struck out 47 times. Warning sign.

 

In 1995 Powell was promoted to High-A, where he spent the whole year. But because he struck out 131 times in 505 at-bats, he hit just .248. He managed just 10 home runs, 23 doubles and 8 triples, good just for .384 slugging. He stole 43 bases, and walked 46 times. What is it with the Giants and toolsy outfielders? Or is it BA? Whatever, will they never learn?

 

The next year Powell took what looked like a step forward at Double-A. He hit 21 home runs, 27 doubles in 508 at-bats, he struck out just 98 times and walked an impressive 72 times, he stole 43 bases again, overall he hit .280 and slugged .465. For a 22-year old at Double-A, not bad, there’s potential there.

 

But apparently there wasn’t. Powell went to Triple-A the next year and the walks went back down, the power back down, the average back down, the only thing that went up was the strikeouts. Even his stolen bases went down, though he still stole 34. Overall he hit .241 and slugged .385, which is pretty much what he did at High-A two years earlier. He had a stint in April/May in the majors, and a cup of coffee, but he mostly sat on the bench and didn’t do enough to earn a spot the next year, 1998. Instead he went back to Triple-A, and got worse. The power still wasn’t there, but his strikeouts took a big leap in the wrong direction to 138 K in 448 AB. He walked a lot too, 71 times, and stole 41 bases, but overall he hit just .230 and slugged just .375.

 

And that was the end of Powell with the Giants. He was traded to the Diamondbacks after 1998 for Alan Embree, and ended up getting just 31 major-league at-bats the rest of his career while doing nothing in the minors. Did Dusty ruin him? Hardly.

 

Lance Niekro

 

Didn’t make it to the majors in time to meet Dusty

 

Tony Torcato

 

Got a cup of coffee in 2002, but there was no case for him to be playing full time at any stage before that. He wasn’t hitting that much at Triple-A. Still isn’t, as a matter of fact.

 

 

 

So there are all the “top prospects” the Giants provided Dusty with in his time there. Not a single good one amongst them, I can’t blame him for not building a team around them.

 

You should get a paycheck for this work. Nice job. Any idear where Aurilla and Felix were ranked?? According to NSBB CW, Felix should have played more in 2002. Sabean should have never signed David Bell. Of course, Baker probably forced Sabean to sign Bell. Just like he forced Sabean to sign Ellis Burks and Reggie Sander. Should have just went w/ Calvin Murray. :o

[JC]

What is "NSBB CW"?

[CubfaninCA]

If Baker's inability to develop position prospects was the only strike against him, I would have problem with him coming back.

 

Larger factors into the equation are his inability to be an in-game manager, he has little concept of how to manage a bullpen or bench and he is too careless with pitchers.

 

His tactical skills suk. Even a common person can figure out that you bat the guy w/ the .350 obp @ the top of the order instead of the guy w/ the .300 obp. Baker's bizarro lineup's have probably cost this team @ least 50 runs this year.

[CubfaninCA]

What is "NSBB CW"?

 

You know what CW is don't you?? If not, this may effect your #2 status on the board. :o

 

Conventional Wisdom.

[UK1679666180]

His tactical skills suk. Even a common person can figure out that you bat the guy w/ the .350 obp @ the top of the order instead of the guy w/ the .300 obp. Baker's bizarro lineup's have probably cost this team @ least 50 runs this year.

 

What is the over/under of the #2 hitter bunting the runner on 1B to 2B and then the oppsition walking Lee?

[JC]

What is "NSBB CW"?

 

You know what CW is don't you?? If not, this may effect your #2 status on the board. :o

 

Conventional Wisdom.

 

If you want to play the martyr and hold yourself out to be the one shining objective person on the board in the face of group think fanatics, go ahead. I think its laughable that you identify a couple of posts as "conventional wisdom" of the board. Such flip comments very much discount the varied opinions and posts that people contribute. Perhaps someone didn't see or chose not to post in whatever thread or group of threads you are referencing regarding Aurilia and Feliz. Or, rather, perhaps they saw it and chose not to contribute because they simply weren't interested.

 

Either way, commentary promoting oneself as a fighter against group think, conventional wisdom, or whatever the phrase may be is ridiculous.

 

Objectively speaking, that is.

[goonys evil twin]

Either way, commentary promoting oneself as a fighter against group think, conventional wisdom, or whatever the phrase may be is ridiculous.

 

Objectively speaking, that is.

 

It also sounds oh so familiar.

[JC]

Either way, commentary promoting oneself as a fighter against group think, conventional wisdom, or whatever the phrase may be is ridiculous.

 

Objectively speaking, that is.

 

It also sounds oh so familiar.

 

Kind of makes you tired, doesn't it?

 

Zzzzzz...

[imb]

Oldhappycubsfan was The realist, but there's no way this guy is ZZ, unless ZZ planned a backup account way back in 2003.

[JC]

Oldhappycubsfan was The realist, but there's no way this guy is ZZ, unless ZZ planned a backup account way back in 2003.

 

Oh, I didn't mean to imply he was the same person. He has adeptly picked up where ZZ left off, however.