Rusch

[Backtobanks]

Since the Cubs have a ton of money to spend, how about resigning Rusch and using Rusch or Williams as trade bait. I would think Rusch could be signed for a reasonable amount and either pitcher looks like a decent 5th starter on the Cubs. With Patterson, Rusch or Williams, Walker, Hairston, Mitre, Welly, and Hill as tradeable commodities, I would think that Hendry ought to be able to get something of value in 1 or 2 trades with some of these players.

[UK1679666180]

Rusch has a 2.5 mil option for next year, the Cubs would be handcuffed pending his decision.

 

Either way, if he leaves via FA or trade, it would be a benefit to the Cubs and him. He'd likely go to a team where he can lock down a #5 and the Cubs could use that 2.5 mil elsewhere and go with Williams as the #5 or someone via FA (Millwood) until some starters hit the DL.

[photoguy9883]

I was against resigning Rusch last offseason and I'm against it this offseason.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm indifferent to Rusch. I don't care if he stays or leaves. He shouldn't be promised any role, regardless.

[BigbadB]

He had another good outing again last night. Maybe he doesn't have the durability to last all year, but he has been pretty good when left alone as a starter, this year and last. I'd like to see him back next year, but will understand why he won't.

[Backtobanks]

He had another good outing again last night. Maybe he doesn't have the durability to last all year, but he has been pretty good when left alone as a starter, this year and last. I'd like to see him back next year, but will understand why he won't.

 

It would be interesting to see what he could do when left alone as a starter. Also, with the Cubs counting on Wood as a starter, it might not be a bad idea to have a 6th starter with major league experience. As I stated before, he might be an option to use in a trade package or in case Williams is used in a trade. I think he could turn out to be a pretty good bargain for some team.

[AramisRamirez]

at this point i think rusch is our best bet. he's a lefty and picking up a FA lefty starter is expensive and usually turns out negatively. id feel more comfortable with rusch penciled in than wiliams. williams appears to have the talent, but we dont need a 5.00 ERA guy. we can look to anybody for that (mitre included).

 

not only would i like rusch back at this point, due to lack of other feasible options, but id take it a step further and put him in the 4th slot. i think maddux at this point is a 5th starter. i think you have to prepare for maddux having a 5.00 ERA next year. he never had much speed, but today i saw larry walker stole a base on him. when larry walker is stealing bases, you know your pitcher isnt throwing with much speed.

 

i think we should go

1) prior

2) zambrano

3) wood until his inevitable injury

4) rusch

5) maddux

 

i just cant trot maddux out there in any slot except 5th anymore. he's 12-13, but if zambrano had maddux's run support he'd probably have 20's win by now.

 

if wood only gives us 75-100 IP next year, we're going to need williams, rusch, any probably even mitre (or hopefully guzman if he's ever ready). too bad zito isnt easily attainable.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

id feel more comfortable with rusch penciled in than wiliams. williams appears to have the talent, but we dont need a 5.00 ERA guy. we can look to anybody for that (mitre included).

 

It's a real good thing that Williams isn't anywhere near a 5.00 ERA then. Williams >>>> Rusch

[CubfaninCA]

Use Rusch as trade bait.

 

In hindsight, Baker should have left him in the rotation all year.

[Fred Hornkohl]

i just cant trot maddux out there in any slot except 5th anymore. he's 12-13, but if zambrano had maddux's run support he'd probably have 20's win by now.

 

 

Never let the facts get in the way of a good argument, eh??

 

pitcher          R/G

Mitre           5.43
Zambrano        4.80
Wood            4.70
Maddux          4.66
Prior           4.60
Williams        4.07
Leicester       4.00
Koronka         3.67
Rusch           3.59
Dempster        3.00
Hill            3.00

[Diffusion]

i just cant trot maddux out there in any slot except 5th anymore. he's 12-13, but if zambrano had maddux's run support he'd probably have 20's win by now.

 

 

Never let the facts get in the way of a good argument, eh??

 

pitcher          R/G

Mitre           5.43
Zambrano        4.80
Wood            4.70
Maddux          4.66
Prior           4.60
Williams        4.07
Leicester       4.00
Koronka         3.67
Rusch           3.59
Dempster        3.00
Hill            3.00

 

Never let a misuse of statistics get in the way either...

 

Z's made 30 starts. Here are the number of runs that the Cubs have scored in the games that he's started...

 

16, 4, 5, 3, 9, 1, 2, 3, 3, 2, 2, 4, 7, 6, 4, 2, 4, 9, 8, 1, 4, 2, 1, 4, 4, 2, 14, 9, 5, 4

 

Let's line those up in order...

 

1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 9, 9, 14, 16

 

Interesting that the Cubs have never been shut out when Zambrano's started.

 

But anyway, talk about 30 runs in 2 games skewing the numbers (and, remember, Z didn't get a win in the 16 run game against Arizona because he was ejected after 4.2 innings!).

 

In 20 of Zambrano's starts the offence has scored 4 runs or fewer. That means to to get a win in any of those starts, Z would have had to combine with a pretty lousy bullpen and allow 0-3 runs, earned or otherwise (and remember we've played some pretty lousy defence too this year), over the entire game to get a win, and that's assuming that the Cubs score all their runs while Zambrano's the pitcher of record.

 

Not the easiest of assignments, but Z has generally been up to the task, making 22 quality starts out of 30. And, since June 23rd, 13 quality starts out of 15, with one of the non-quality starts seeing him start the 8th having allowed just 2 runs (the other one was the ESPN Sunday Night game against the Mets when he left after 3 IP).

 

More than the wins, that Z has only "lost" 5 games is a credit to him. In the games that he took the loss, the Cubs scored 1, 3, 2, 4 and 1.

 

I don't see how you can jump on Aramis Ramirez for what he said just because you've got a misleading statistic to hand.

[BigbadB]

i just cant trot maddux out there in any slot except 5th anymore. he's 12-13, but if zambrano had maddux's run support he'd probably have 20's win by now.

 

 

Never let the facts get in the way of a good argument, eh??

 

pitcher          R/G

Mitre           5.43
Zambrano        4.80
Wood            4.70
Maddux          4.66
Prior           4.60
Williams        4.07
Leicester       4.00
Koronka         3.67
Rusch           3.59
Dempster        3.00
Hill            3.00

 

Never let a misuse of statistics get in the way either...

 

Z's made 30 starts. Here are the number of runs that the Cubs have scored in the games that he's started...

 

16, 4, 5, 3, 9, 1, 2, 3, 3, 2, 2, 4, 7, 6, 4, 2, 4, 9, 8, 1, 4, 2, 1, 4, 4, 2, 14, 9, 5, 4

 

Let's line those up in order...

 

1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 9, 9, 14, 16

 

Interesting that the Cubs have never been shut out when Zambrano's started.

 

But anyway, talk about 30 runs in 2 games skewing the numbers (and, remember, Z didn't get a win in the 16 run game against Arizona because he was ejected after 4.2 innings!).

 

In 20 of Zambrano's starts the offence has scored 4 runs or fewer. That means to to get a win in any of those starts, Z would have had to combine with a pretty lousy bullpen and allow 0-3 runs, earned or otherwise (and remember we've played some pretty lousy defence too this year), over the entire game to get a win, and that's assuming that the Cubs score all their runs while Zambrano's the pitcher of record.

 

Not the easiest of assignments, but Z has generally been up to the task, making 22 quality starts out of 30. And, since June 23rd, 13 quality starts out of 15, with one of the non-quality starts seeing him start the 8th having allowed just 2 runs (the other one was the ESPN Sunday Night game against the Mets when he left after 3 IP).

 

More than the wins, that Z has only "lost" 5 games is a credit to him. In the games that he took the loss, the Cubs scored 1, 3, 2, 4 and 1.

 

I don't see how you can jump on Aramis Ramirez for what he said just because you've got a misleading statistic to hand.

 

That's a mighty fine homework assignment! =D>

[Backtobanks]

I still say that unless Rusch refuses to sign with the Cubs, bring him back. There's the old saying: "You can never have too much pitching." The origin of that quote goes back before Wood, so it is very relevant in the Cubs' case. Also, I think the Cubs are going to get more help on the trade front than on the free agent market.

[Fred Hornkohl]

i just cant trot maddux out there in any slot except 5th anymore. he's 12-13, but if zambrano had maddux's run support he'd probably have 20's win by now.

 

 

Never let the facts get in the way of a good argument, eh??

 

pitcher          R/G

Mitre           5.43
Zambrano        4.80
Wood            4.70
Maddux          4.66
Prior           4.60
Williams        4.07
Leicester       4.00
Koronka         3.67
Rusch           3.59
Dempster        3.00
Hill            3.00

 

Never let a misuse of statistics get in the way either...

 

Z's made 30 starts. Here are the number of runs that the Cubs have scored in the games that he's started...

 

16, 4, 5, 3, 9, 1, 2, 3, 3, 2, 2, 4, 7, 6, 4, 2, 4, 9, 8, 1, 4, 2, 1, 4, 4, 2, 14, 9, 5, 4

 

Let's line those up in order...

 

1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 9, 9, 14, 16

 

Interesting that the Cubs have never been shut out when Zambrano's started.

 

But anyway, talk about 30 runs in 2 games skewing the numbers (and, remember, Z didn't get a win in the 16 run game against Arizona because he was ejected after 4.2 innings!).

 

In 20 of Zambrano's starts the offence has scored 4 runs or fewer. That means to to get a win in any of those starts, Z would have had to combine with a pretty lousy bullpen and allow 0-3 runs, earned or otherwise (and remember we've played some pretty lousy defence too this year), over the entire game to get a win, and that's assuming that the Cubs score all their runs while Zambrano's the pitcher of record.

 

Not the easiest of assignments, but Z has generally been up to the task, making 22 quality starts out of 30. And, since June 23rd, 13 quality starts out of 15, with one of the non-quality starts seeing him start the 8th having allowed just 2 runs (the other one was the ESPN Sunday Night game against the Mets when he left after 3 IP).

 

More than the wins, that Z has only "lost" 5 games is a credit to him. In the games that he took the loss, the Cubs scored 1, 3, 2, 4 and 1.

 

I don't see how you can jump on Aramis Ramirez for what he said just because you've got a misleading statistic to hand.

 

Nothing in Maddux's 32 starts suggests that the run support numbers are skewed, eh?

 

4,6,4,3,3,5,7,4,1,1,5,11,14,5,5,6,6,1,9,0,6,2,6,0,11,4,7,1,7,2,2,1

 

Or in ordinal order.....

 

0,0,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,4,4,4,5,5,5,5,6,6,6,6,6,7,7,7,9,11,11,14

 

Note that there are 16 out of 32 starts where the CUBS scored 4 or fewer runs compared to 20 for Zambrano. Maddux's median is 5 compared to Zambrano's 4

 

pitcher          R/G   St Dev  

Mitre           5.43     4.59
Zambrano        4.80     3.58
Wood            4.70     2.93
Maddux          4.66     3.31
Prior           4.60     2.58
Williams        4.07     2.76
Leicester       4.00     ----
Koronka         3.67     3.77
Rusch           3.59     1.94
Dempster        3.00     2.71
Hill            3.00     1.23

overall         4.40     3.12

 

There is absolutely nothing here to suggest that Zambrano, given Maddux's run support, would have 9 more wins at this point in the season. That was the original assertion, and I jumped on it because it was wrong.

 

Misuse of a statistic ?? What arrogance !!

[Diffusion]

i just cant trot maddux out there in any slot except 5th anymore. he's 12-13, but if zambrano had maddux's run support he'd probably have 20's win by now.

 

 

Never let the facts get in the way of a good argument, eh??

 

pitcher          R/G

Mitre           5.43
Zambrano        4.80
Wood            4.70
Maddux          4.66
Prior           4.60
Williams        4.07
Leicester       4.00
Koronka         3.67
Rusch           3.59
Dempster        3.00
Hill            3.00

 

Never let a misuse of statistics get in the way either...

 

Z's made 30 starts. Here are the number of runs that the Cubs have scored in the games that he's started...

 

16, 4, 5, 3, 9, 1, 2, 3, 3, 2, 2, 4, 7, 6, 4, 2, 4, 9, 8, 1, 4, 2, 1, 4, 4, 2, 14, 9, 5, 4

 

Let's line those up in order...

 

1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 9, 9, 14, 16

 

Interesting that the Cubs have never been shut out when Zambrano's started.

 

But anyway, talk about 30 runs in 2 games skewing the numbers (and, remember, Z didn't get a win in the 16 run game against Arizona because he was ejected after 4.2 innings!).

 

In 20 of Zambrano's starts the offence has scored 4 runs or fewer. That means to to get a win in any of those starts, Z would have had to combine with a pretty lousy bullpen and allow 0-3 runs, earned or otherwise (and remember we've played some pretty lousy defence too this year), over the entire game to get a win, and that's assuming that the Cubs score all their runs while Zambrano's the pitcher of record.

 

Not the easiest of assignments, but Z has generally been up to the task, making 22 quality starts out of 30. And, since June 23rd, 13 quality starts out of 15, with one of the non-quality starts seeing him start the 8th having allowed just 2 runs (the other one was the ESPN Sunday Night game against the Mets when he left after 3 IP).

 

More than the wins, that Z has only "lost" 5 games is a credit to him. In the games that he took the loss, the Cubs scored 1, 3, 2, 4 and 1.

 

I don't see how you can jump on Aramis Ramirez for what he said just because you've got a misleading statistic to hand.

 

Nothing in Maddux's 32 starts suggests that the run support numbers are skewed, eh?

 

4,6,4,3,3,5,7,4,1,1,5,11,14,5,5,6,6,1,9,0,6,2,6,0,11,4,7,1,7,2,2,1

 

Or in ordinal order.....

 

0,0,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,4,4,4,5,5,5,5,6,6,6,6,6,7,7,7,9,11,11,14

 

Note that there are 16 out of 32 starts where the CUBS scored 4 or fewer runs compared to 20 for Zambrano. Maddux's median is 5 compared to Zambrano's 4

 

pitcher          R/G   St Dev  

Mitre           5.43     4.59
Zambrano        4.80     3.58
Wood            4.70     2.93
Maddux          4.66     3.31
Prior           4.60     2.58
Williams        4.07     2.76
Leicester       4.00     ----
Koronka         3.67     3.77
Rusch           3.59     1.94
Dempster        3.00     2.71
Hill            3.00     1.23

overall         4.40     3.12

 

There is absolutely nothing here to suggest that Zambrano, given Maddux's run support, would have 9 more wins at this point in the season. That was the original assertion, and I jumped on it because it was wrong.

 

Misuse of a statistic ?? What arrogance !!

 

I didn't look at Maddux. Mostly because I didn't read the original thing by Aramis Ramirez properly. For that, I apologise, if that's necessary.

 

But, using the statistics that you provided there for Maddux, for which I thank you...

 

The Cubs have scored 5 runs or more for Maddux in 16 out of 32 starts (50%), while they've done the same for Zambrano in just 10 out of 30 starts (33%).

 

There's run support for Maddux that Zambrano hasn't got.

 

Does that give Z enough wins more to give him 20-odd (which is what Aramis actually said if we want to be pedantic about it, and that means 7+ as opposed to 9)? Probably not, but I didn't read Aramis's statement as being entirely literal, but rather a slightly exaggerated throwaway line.

[Fred Hornkohl]

I didn't look at Maddux. Mostly because I didn't read the original thing by Aramis Ramirez properly. For that, I apologise, if that's necessary.

 

But, using the statistics that you provided there for Maddux, for which I thank you...

 

The Cubs have scored 5 runs or more for Maddux in 16 out of 32 starts (50%), while they've done the same for Zambrano in just 10 out of 30 starts (33%).

 

There's run support for Maddux that Zambrano hasn't got.

 

Does that give Z enough wins more to give him 20-odd (which is what Aramis actually said if we want to be pedantic about it, and that means 7+ as opposed to 9)? Probably not, but I didn't read Aramis's statement as being entirely literal, but rather a slightly exaggerated throwaway line.

 

When I posted that, I had just finished starting today's game thread. For some reason, CUBS.com had Z's record at 11-5 instead of 13-5. I didn't catch that until midway through the game.

[JGalt73]

I realize this deviates from the "if only pitcher A had pitcher B's run support", but for reference...if you exclude actual variable run support and look only at pitching lines -

 

Expected record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically.

 

Records 'should' be (actual):

Zambrano 13-9 (13-5)

Maddux 11-12 (12-13)

Prior 11-6 (10-7)

Rusch 5-7 (5-6)

 

For reference, using the above, your MLB leaders should be:

 

Carpenter @ 17-7

Willis @ 17-8

Clemens @ 16-5