Hendry Could Spend $50M This Offseason

[HoopsCubs]

Three premises to start:

 

(1) The Cubs 2006 payroll will be in the $105M range. Hoops commentary: Based on MacPhail's recent comments, it will definitely be $100M. I'm guessing it gets expanded a little more to $105M.

 

(2) The Cubs decide to say goodbye to 3 players with team options: Burnitz, Williamson and Walker and 3 players with arbitration eligibility: Patterson, Hairston and Macias. Hoops commentary: I think the Cubs will buy-out Burnitz, let Williamson walk and trade Walker after picking up his option - I'm guessing to Minnesota for a relief pitcher; I think the Cubs will trade Patterson and Hairston, and non-tender Jose.

 

(3) If Glendon Rusch picks up his $2M player option, Hendry trades him to a pitching starved team, i.e., Toronto, Kansas City, etc... Hoops commentary: Rusch has been awful this year. As happy as I was with his 2004 performance, I now concede it was a fluke. If Hendry picks up $500K, I think he can get a trade through for marginal prospects.

 

 

Therefore, Hendry has these commitments:

 

Derrek Lee-$8.7M

Aramis Ramirez-$10.5M

Michael Barrett-$4.3M

Mark Prior-$3.0M

Greg Maddux-$9.0M

Kerry Wood-$12.0M

Henry Blanco-$1.5M

Carlos Zambrano - $5.0M - arbitration eligible (made $2.8M in 2005)

 

Glendon Rusch-$500K - cash paid to deal him

Jeromy Burnitz-$500K - buyout

 

8 players: $55M.

 

Hendry spends $50M to fill out the roster. Considering minimum wage guys like Wuertz (bullpen), Murton (LF), Cedeno (2B) may fill some of the open spots on the roster, Jim Hendry really has a lot of cash available to fill the important roles. How will he do it? That's the $50M question! Lead-off, SS, Closer, Set-up, 2 OF spots and 5th starter are the definite holes. Despite the thin free-agent market, there's a lot of dough there to be creative. Any out-of-box thinking out there?

 

 

Hoops

[AAApittsburgh]

Why would the Cubs let Williamson walk? I know he has sucked (small sample size), but he just had TJ surgery and will likely be better next season.

[HoopsCubs]

Why would the Cubs let Williamson walk? I know he has sucked (small sample size), but he just had TJ surgery and will likely be better next season.

 

Maybe. Maybe not. My prediction is that the Cubs let him walk.

[AlwaysaCub]

Well, Hendry needs to have a contingency plan based on whether Maddux chooses to retire or not. Unfortunately, no one knows but Maddog himself.

[WindyCity]

Hendry spends $50M to fill out the roster. Considering minimum wage guys like Wuertz (bullpen), Murton (LF), Cedeno (2B) may fill some of the open spots on the roster, Jim Hendry really has a lot of cash available to fill the important roles. How will he do it? That's the $50M question! Lead-off, SS, Closer, Set-up, 2 OF spots and 5th starter are the definite holes. Despite the thin free-agent market, there's a lot of dough there to be creative. Any out-of-box thinking out there?

 

 

Hoops

 

The Cubs have put themselves in a very bad position -- they had a terrible year (vs. payroll/expectations), have a ton of money available, and a sub-par free-agent market to spend it on... a recipe for disaster IMO (disaster being defined as overpaying for crap).

 

Any projections on the FAs that may be available after 2006? If I recall correctly, the outfield options are much better if the Cubs can wait a year to make a big splash in free agency. I would not mind the Cubs going with a cheaper payroll / youth movement to start '06 and then spending big at the deadline or after the 2006 season.

 

Then again .... 98 years and counting may force Hendry's hand. If so, get the best talent and pay for it -- whatever Jim does, he better not settle for mid-tier talent to plug the holes. Either get Giles or go young at RF, get Furcal or go with Cedeno, etc.

 

No retreads in 2006 please.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

So what are you thinking as a middle infield? Cedeno and Furcal or Neifi and Cedeno?

[EricG]

and who fills the 2 OF spots, Damon and Giles?

[NewUserName]

I also believe that this has the potential to be a disastorous off-season. Before they spend to much of the 50 million you also need to consider that Prior, Z and Lee are in need of new contracts the next couple of years. So before they go all out and get the 3 best players available they should realize that 2 of them are in their 30s and will probably start having declining value over the next few years. Also only one team in baseball history has gone from under 500 to winning the WS the next year by bringing in a bunch of free agents. I would suggest that youth is used. Do not give Dusty veteren options on the bench. See which of their young players is worth keeping and then try to upgrade through free agency after next season. I believe this way has a chance to have alot better long term success than going overboard this off-season

[Jazz]

in detail, when u look at the in house fillers here are the ones that could start in 06'

 

LF - Murton

2B - Cedeno

RP - Novoa

RP - Wuertz

RP - Williams

 

All the above would total out to about 1.5-2 million so we have a little more than 50 mil to work with conidering what you said.

 

Also when you factor in that hendry has said neifi is a definately back in the lineup, you can say he will be back for around the same price. 1 mil.

 

Heres a few ideas that u first think of that come up in most cubs 2005 offseason plans

 

1. Sign A Big Bat OF:

Right now, the one that fits perfectly is Brian Giles, while he is up there, he is a great placeholder for our minor league OFers (harvey, pie, etc.), while still being a big producer in the middle of the lineup. He probably will be our biggest FA acquisition should we sign him.

Predicted Contract: 3 yrs, 38 million with 4th year option

 

2. Resign Ryan Dempster

Dempster has been great for us in the pen, and i think all things considered, itd be smart to resign him. Offer him a decent deal, and id think hed be more than welcome to resign, he seemed like he had a wonderful time in Chicago, and id love to see him and his antics back in the pen.

Predicted Contracted: 2 yrs, 7-8 million with 3rd year option

 

17 players at an estimated 75 million. here is where you make the interesting moves.

 

Holes Still Left:

-Closer

-5th starter

-Shortstop? (I platoon cedeno at 2nd with perez)

-2nd Setup Man

-Leadoff Man

-Center Fielder Situation

 

I think hendry needs to make things happen out of nowhere to get quality at most of the positions. Trades involving alot of role players, and one marquee player, as well as one more FA signing could mean that.

 

Lets look at the options for Closer/Setup:

 

In the FA market you have:

Mike Myers

BJ Ryan

Trevor Hoffman

Billy Wagner

Braden Looper (Team Option)

Octavio Dotel (Rehab)

Kyle Farnsworth

Julian Tavarez

Tom Gordon

Rudy Seanez

 

Id sign at least one of these guys to fill a role, and get another from a trade. Id pursue Ryan, Farnsworth, Seanez, and Tavarez very hard. Those seem like the most viable options as hoffman and wagner might go to big market teams.

 

At 5th starter, the following standout in the FA crop:

AJ Burnett

Roger Clemens (retiring?)

Kevin Millwood

Jarrod Washburn

 

Hendry "says" he will pursue burnett hard, but i dont think he will end up with the Cubs. Clemens if definately off the radar since he is least likely to sign here. Millwood and Washburn are interesting to consider as both had solid years last year. But theyll probably get long term offers from other teams, which we could offer too if not for the maddux situation, If maddog retired tho, bounce on one of these two.

 

Id consider pursuing a trade for barry zito, or livan hernandez. Zito is in the final year of a contract where he will be owed 7 Mil next year. And with the whole moneyball thing working for Beane right now, zito might be the last of the "big 3" to finally leave, being that he will be due millions in FA in 07 that beane will ultimately not pay. With the right deal, zito could be had for a couple of the cubs better prospects and an ML ready starter.

Hernandez is also in a situation that could bode well for the cubs.

He has 2 years left at 15 million dollars on his contract, and he has been by far the one of the most consistent pitcher as of late, posting sub 4.00 eras the last 3 years, not to mention 6 straight years of 200+ innings.

 

If one of the above situation happens, than the cubs would be left with about 13-18 million left to spend on a shortstop, filling the rest of the bench with dustyproof players, and figuring out the CF situation.

 

At shortstop, with the remaining money, if Furcal is willing to sign for the 8-10 mil he is worth, for a long term contract (4-5 years), than jump on it, if not, than forget him, and resign nomar cheap, or find a shortstop in a trade for someone such as Julio Lugo. Lugo would fit the cubs perfectly as he plays solid defense with a .360 OBP, and a 300+ AVG. Find a deal that the rays will bite for, and he could be the starting shortstop for the cubs. I really like this idea. Lugo makes close to 5 mil next year.

 

At CF id say give patterson one more chance to start, and if his cause is lost, bring in pie, or start hairston in CF, and trade patterson midseason to w/e u can get.

 

The bench right now would look like:

C Blanco

IF Cedeno/Perez

IF ?

OF Hairston

OF ?

Util ?

these 3 spots could be filled with anyone from the orginazation, to a side player in one of the deals listed above. Id say bring up mike fontenot to start at the 2nd IF spot, Grieve to start at the 2nd OF spot, and bring in a quality super sub utility man from FA like Orlando Palmeiro, Matt Stairs, or even cub killer Jose Vizcaino.

 

With the above moves, the opening day roster could look like this if ur being optimistic.

 

 

SS Lugo - 4.95M

2B Cedeno - .3M

1B Lee - 8.7M

RF Giles - 13M

3B Ramirez - 10.5M

LF Murton - .3M

CF Patterson - 2.5M

C Barrett - 4.3M

 

SP1 Prior - 3M

SP2 Zambrano - 5M

SP3 Hernandez/Zito - 7-8M

SP4 Wood - 12 M

SP5 Maddux - 9M

 

RP1 Williams - 1M

RP2 Wuertz - .5M

RP3 Novoa - .5M

Setup: Tavarez/Sea nez/Farnsworth - 4M

Setup: Dempster - 3-5M

Closer: Ryan - 6-8M

 

Bench

C Blanco - 1,5M

IF Perez - 1M

IF Fontenot - .3M

OF Grieve - .5M

OF Hairston - .5M

Util Vizcaino - 1.5M

 

Total: 95-105 Million

 

Playoff Team? On paper yes

Reasonable? Maybe

Edited September 7, 2005 by Jazz

[AlwaysaCub]

You really think that with Neifi Perez on your roster, Cedeno will actually start at second base? Not with this manager.

[Jazz]

You really think that with Neifi Perez on your roster, Cedeno will actually start at second base? Not with this manager.

 

the soon to be formed AARP "All Against Restarting Perez" Foundation will do whatever it takes to show there distaste of the misuse of Perez, and perez like substances (poor choices for pinch hitting, bad 1-2 spots in the lineups, etc..) This will negate the effects of a Neifi on the roster, and lead the cubs, and cub fans, to having less hair removed by themselves.

 

LETS GO AARP!

[YearofDaCubs]

I really doubt Williamson will be left to walk.

[CubfaninCA]

Jmo, but the Cubs will make their biggest acquisition via a trade. Giles will stay in SoCal and Burnett & Furcal will get offered too many years. Perhaps Hendry pulls a deal for either Soriano or Manny. Then signs either Millwood or Weaver or someone at that level.

[CuseCubFan69]

Jmo, but the Cubs will make their biggest acquisition via a trade. Giles will stay in SoCal and Burnett & Furcal will get offered too many years. Perhaps Hendry pulls a deal for either Soriano or Manny. Then signs either Millwood or Weaver or someone at that level.

 

I agree. There are no quality OF free agents out there.

[nilodnayr]

I really doubt Williamson will be left to walk.

 

I bet his contract is reworked to take less money next year and have an option for 2007.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

Closer: Ryan - 6-8M

No way he comes that cheap.

 

Also please everyone stop with the sign Julian Tavarez or Kyle Farnsworth. Neither are happening.

[snoodmonger]

I'd like to see them pick up Williamson's option. I hope they can improve the OF via the trade, because the FA don't do much for me.

[nilodnayr]

Closer: Ryan - 6-8M

No way he comes that cheap.

 

I dont know, I wouldnt necessarily say that. Id compare Dempster as a closer to an inexperienced poor mans Wickman (at the time he signed his contract in 2002), who after his first four years as a closer (25, 37, 30, 32 saves) got a 3 yr 16M contract.

[KatJ]

Also please everyone stop with the sign Julian Tavarez or Kyle Farnsworth. Neither are happening.

 

IIRC, the Cubs had both the Tool and the Headcase in the pen (or was it the rotation?) at some point in one of the seasons past. Insanity = repeating the same things, hoping to elicit a different result.

 

I doubt that anyone who wants Tavarez or Farnsy (especially Tavarez) has yet graduated from high school. That is not so much a knock on age, as it is a belief that they haven't seen enough years of Cub baseball to see the dismal results of retreads.

 

I would also like to add Tom Gordon to your list.

[CoolHandLuke]

Closer: Ryan - 6-8M

No way he comes that cheap.

 

I dont know, I wouldnt necessarily say that. Id compare Dempster as a closer to an inexperienced poor mans Wickman (at the time he signed his contract in 2002), who after his first four years as a closer (25, 37, 30, 32 saves) got a 3 yr 16M contract.

 

I am pretty sure the Ryan that he is talking about is BJ

[muntjack]

All signs point to a MAJOR move being made in December or January. We have too much money and there is a substantial amount of pressure on the front office after a dismal season. This move will almost certainly be for an outfielder.

 

My guess is Manny or Dunn. Add Giles, and we're almost Dusty-proof.

 

What should (and with $105 million, could) be:

 

Damon

Cedeno

Lee

Ramirez

Ramirez

Giles

Walker

Barrett

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

With the number of rule V casualties we're looking at, I would not be surprised to see a major trade prior to the deadline of locking down the 40-man roster prior to the rule V draft.

 

While there is a weak FA class, Hendry might target a high priced player from a small market team to fill a need.

[RynoRules]

Jmo, but the Cubs will make their biggest acquisition via a trade. Giles will stay in SoCal and Burnett & Furcal will get offered too many years. Perhaps Hendry pulls a deal for either Soriano or Manny. Then signs either Millwood or Weaver or someone at that level.

 

I agree. There are no quality OF free agents out there.

 

I like Giles, but would rather start using our farm system to produce established MLers like Manny.

[JC]

Jmo, but the Cubs will make their biggest acquisition via a trade. Giles will stay in SoCal and Burnett & Furcal will get offered too many years. Perhaps Hendry pulls a deal for either Soriano or Manny. Then signs either Millwood or Weaver or someone at that level.

 

I agree. There are no quality OF free agents out there.

 

I like Giles, but would rather start using our farm system to produce established MLers like Manny.

 

Who wouldn't? Manny is an elite, special player. Guys like Manny aren't developed as much as identified and drafted.

 

Instead, our scouting department gets enamored with guys like Ryan Harvey, who can hit a ball 500 ft., but with significantly less consistency.

[frostwyrm]

To me Burnett is vastly preferrable to Zito, because Beane will demand and get a high price in prospects. We won't have to give up any prospects to get Burnett, we just have to pay him his dollar price, which will be very high of course, but Zito will be just as expensive in 2007 if he has another good season in 2006. One year of Zito at 7.7M is not worth gutting the farm. I say sign Burnett and keep the prospects for other needs.