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UK - You're back to pitch counts again, with a disregard for actually seeing him throw. He was clearly cruising in those games.

 

You would have taken him out of 2 games in June, when the race hadn't been decided yet, even though he'd thrown under 100 pitches?

 

What if you ended up needing him to throw 120 pitches in an important game in September, but he was only conditioned (at that point, using your theory) to throw 90 or 95? As it stands, Carpenter is averaging fewer than 100 pitches per game for the season. To me, that's not even close to being out of line.

 

If you think that Larussa is out of line with Carpenter, you should look back in June at what Cox was doing to Smoltz, or what happened in Tim Hudson's last start. Cox has been pretty successful too.

 

I don't know. I guess a case can be made, but it's a weak on, in my opinion.

 

If the opportunity presents itself to take a starting pitcher out early (around 100 pitches) b/c the game has been decided, I'd take him out in April, May, June, July, August, Sept., and/or October.

 

There is a clear difference between game that haven't been decided and games that have been. Cruising or not, it is better for the pitcher both in the short and long-term to get him out as early as possible once the game has been decided.

 

There is no such thing as being conditioned to throw 90 to 95 pitches. The body simply doesn't work like a machine. The more you throw while fatigued, the stronger you get, you don't increase a pitcher's stamina extending him to 120. Typically, pitchers start feeling fatigued around 75 pitches (not including warmup and between innings).

 

Based on PCs, Carpenter hasn't likely been abused, it doesn't take away the fact that in the outings mentioned I would've wanted him to be pulled earlier than he was.

 

I can look at Cox, LaRussa, Baker, Gardenhire, Torre, Yost, Manuel, etc. and similar instances, and...?

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Posted
UK - You're back to pitch counts again, with a disregard for actually seeing him throw. He was clearly cruising in those games.

 

You would have taken him out of 2 games in June, when the race hadn't been decided yet, even though he'd thrown under 100 pitches?

 

What if you ended up needing him to throw 120 pitches in an important game in September, but he was only conditioned (at that point, using your theory) to throw 90 or 95? As it stands, Carpenter is averaging fewer than 100 pitches per game for the season. To me, that's not even close to being out of line.

 

If you think that Larussa is out of line with Carpenter, you should look back in June at what Cox was doing to Smoltz, or what happened in Tim Hudson's last start. Cox has been pretty successful too.

 

I don't know. I guess a case can be made, but it's a weak on, in my opinion.

 

If the opportunity presents itself to take a starting pitcher out early (around 100 pitches) b/c the game has been decided, I'd take him out in April, May, June, July, August, Sept., and/or October.

 

There is a clear difference between game that haven't been decided and games that have been. Cruising or not, it is better for the pitcher both in the short and long-term to get him out as early as possible once the game has been decided.

 

There is no such thing as being conditioned to throw 90 to 95 pitches. The body simply doesn't work like a machine. The more you throw while fatigued, the stronger you get, you don't increase a pitcher's stamina extending him to 120. Typically, pitchers start feeling fatigued around 75 pitches (not including warmup and between innings).

 

Based on PCs, Carpenter hasn't likely been abused, it doesn't take away the fact that in the outings mentioned I would've wanted him to be pulled earlier than he was.

 

I can look at Cox, LaRussa, Baker, Gardenhire, Torre, Yost, Manuel, etc. and similar instances, and...?

 

...... and conclude that you are right, and they are all wrong, I guess?

 

I see what you're saying UK, and I don't necessarily disagree with you. Carpenter could have been pulled an inning earlier in June. Same for Hudson and Smoltz. But I think it's splitting hairs a little. I don't think that Carpenter is going to be out of gas in October because he threw an extra 30 pitches (spread out over 3 starts, or a week and a half), back in June.

 

But yeah, I can see that logically you could take a guy out early. Where would you draw the line? If you're up by 6 runs after 6 innings in a game in early June, and your pitcher has thrown 75 pitches, do you pull him? I don't know, and I'm not implying anything. I'm simply asking your opinion.

Posted
...... and conclude that you are right, and they are all wrong, I guess?

 

Various times they do things different than I would do. So what? Nothing unusual, every game I can usually find something the manager has done that I would do differently, some more than others. Him being a manager doesn't sway or change my beliefs on how it should be done or make my opinion less valid. Think LaRussa didn't go against the grain with his managerial moves when he was a rookie manager?

 

No such things as splitting hairs when it comes to resting SPs.

 

 

But yeah, I can see that logically you could take a guy out early. Where would you draw the line? If you're up by 6 runs after 6 innings in a game in early June, and your pitcher has thrown 75 pitches, do you pull him? I don't know, and I'm not implying anything. I'm simply asking your opinion.

 

It depends on the game situation, will he be going on 4 or 5 days rest? how well rested in the pen? How many pitches did he throw his last time out? Will there be an off-day tomorrow?

 

But, ideally I'd like to keep it around 90 pitches if the game has been decided and you have a rested pen.

 

If you think my ideals surrounding protecting pitchers is extreme, you haven't seen my views on using a spot starter at various points during a year.

Posted

That's cool. Thanks for being reasonable and objective, anyway.

 

Spot starters? How often? Just to minimize innings pitched for a given rotation, or what?

Posted

I'd probably give them a minumum of 2 skipped starts a year, that would give the spot starter 10 starts and would require going with a 7 man bullpen at various points, Interleague away games would be ideal for NL teams.

 

8-10 days rest is similar to amount of rest around the AS break, skip a start and you have that 8-10 days rest.

 

Not reducing IP, just giving the pitcher a longer recovery at various points during the year. Ideally, late May/early June and August would be ideal, if you can do it in Sept, you do it in Sept. as well.

Posted
You can lack emotion on the outside and be just as emotional on the inside. Look at Orel, he would get himself worked up before a game, be pretty much stone faced and have to read sections of the bible to help him stay relaxed. Ted Williams is another that during BP, he would scream at the top of his lungs how this *ing pitcher thinks he can get me out with that "__!". Bob *ing Feller ain't going to get that FB by me I'm Ted *ing Williams.
Posted
You can lack emotion on the outside and be just as emotional on the inside. Look at Orel, he would get himself worked up before a game, be pretty much stone faced and have to read sections of the bible to help him stay relaxed. Ted Williams is another that during BP, he would scream at the top of his lungs how this *ing pitcher thinks he can get me out with that "__!". Bob *ing Feller ain't going to get that FB by me I'm Ted *ing Williams.

 

That story is one of many reasons why Ted Williams is my very favorite old time ballplayer.

Posted
You can lack emotion on the outside and be just as emotional on the inside. Look at Orel, he would get himself worked up before a game, be pretty much stone faced and have to read sections of the bible to help him stay relaxed. Ted Williams is another that during BP, he would scream at the top of his lungs how this *ing pitcher thinks he can get me out with that "__!". Bob *ing Feller ain't going to get that FB by me I'm Ted *ing Williams.

 

That story is one of many reasons why Ted Williams is my very favorite old time ballplayer.

 

Drysdale is my favorite old time ball player for diffrent reasons, but he wasn't what you'd call a friendly fellow. I always loved his 2 for 1 policy, you throw at 1 of my batters and I'll throw at 2, typically the pitcher and the best hitter. The good ole days...

Posted
Rolen is done for the year. I like Rolen, I like his approach to the game, he's one of few in the game who if I had a son, I'd have him watch the way Rolen carries himself on the field and try and emulate that.

 

Really? I wouldn't. I don't think complete lack of emotion is such a great thing.

 

I appreciate the way Rolen handles himself when he hits a home run. He puts his head and runs around the bases at almost full speed. None of the BS that Sammy, Pujols or Bonds pull where they stand there and admire their work and then trot at slow speed.

 

I don't think Rolen's a robot: he's just dialed in.

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted

 

final score, IP, pitch counts for Carpenter over the past two months

 

7-0, 9, 95

6-1, 8, 109

8-0, 9, 103

6-0, 8.2, 112

2-1, 8.0, 112

3-0, 9.0, 114

2-1, 9, 106

11-3, 7, 109

3-1, 9, 109

5-3, 8, 113

5-2, 9, 109

 

all with the Cards holding double digit lead in the division, all with the Cards having the least used bullpen in all of baseball.

 

hey, let's run a guy who had reconstructive surgery two years ago out for 250 innings. if I were a Cardinal fan, my feathers would be ruffled. WS > Cy Young.

 

so here we are about three weeks after I made this post. let's look and see what the Cards have been doing with Carpenter

 

8/19 5-4, 8+, 94 - a low pitch count game. LaRussa runs Carpenter out in the ninth trailing 0-2 and he gives up two more.

 

8/24 8-3, 8.0, 96 - a low pitch count game. the Cards put up a five spot in the top of the first and have a 6-2 lead going into the seventh. LaRussa leaves Carpenter in in another blow out.

 

8/29 6-1, 7.2, 94 - average pitch count for the point in the game. the Cards go into the bottom of the fifth with a 6-1 lead, but Carpenter is left in until he goes nearly 8. LaRussa chooses to use his two best right handers, Tavarez and Isringhausen, to mop up the final four outs with a five run lead.

 

9/3 4-2, 9, 120 - high pitch count in a duel between Clemens and Carpenter. Clemens is gone after 5 and the Cards take a 4-2 lead in the bottom of the seventh. LaRussa sticks with Carpenter to finish the game.

 

I did some research on this after this debate, and the Card fans who said this is what LaRussa always has done were absolutely correct. LaRussa has kept the peddle down throughout the regular season. with his history of failure in the post season, you'd think he would learn his lesson.

 

let's do a cursory review

 

1983 White Sox - the White Sox clinch their division earlier than any other team in baseball history. Lamar Hoyt, Richard Dotson, and Floyd Bannister are leaned on heavily, 261, 241, 217 innings respectively. Bannister gives up 4 in six innings in game two, Bannister is shelled in game three. the White Sox bow out of the playoffs to the O's.

 

1988 A's - the A's win the division by 13 games. Sterart 275, Welch 244, Davis 202. LaRussa refuses to go to a four man rotation in the post season. the World Series is dominated by the Dodgers pitching. Davis gives up six in game two. and Stewart gives up four in seven innings. Davis gives up four runs in four innings in the clinching game 5. the A's lose the World Series.

 

1989 A's - the A's win their division by 7 games. LaRussa eases up a little on his starters. Stewart 258, Moore 242, Welch 210, Davis 169. he goes with a four man rotation in the playoffs, and only needs two starters in the WS because of the earthquake. A's win it all

 

1990 A's - the A's win their division by 9 games. Stewart 267, Welch 238, Sanderson 206, Moore 199. the A's pitching dominates the playoffs giving up only 4 runs to the RedSox, but LaRussa is back to a three man rotation. Stewart and Moor get shelled in games 1 and 3. A's are swept in the WS.

 

1996 Cards - they win a woeful Central by six games. Benes 230, Stottleyer 223, Benes 191, Osborne 199. Again he goes with a three man rotation in the playoffs. Cards sweep in the first round and lose the Championship series, including losses of 14-0 and 15-0 after taking a 3-1 lead in the series.

 

2000 Cards - Cards win division by 10 games. Kile 232, Hentgen 194, Stephenson 200. Cards sweep the Braves in the division series, mostly due to their offence, but neither Ankiel or Stephenson stay in the game long enough to get a W. Ankiel melts down and both Hentgen and Kile get shelled in a 4-1 series loss.

 

2001 Cards - Cards win WC by two games over the Giants. Kile 227, Morris 216. the Cards lose in the divisional playoffs. Morris and Kile hold up ok. too much Schilling-Johnson for the Cards to handle.

 

2002 Cards - Cards win the division by 13 games. Morris 210, Williams 220, Finley 185. Cards win divisional with a good start from Morris and great bullpen work in the other two games (Finley goes six and pitches well, Benes pitches into the fifth. Morris is shelled in game one of the Championship series, Finley is roughted up in his start. Cards lose series 4-1.

 

2004 Cards - Cards blow out the division, but LaRussa refuses to use a sixth starter until Carpenter gets nerve damage in his arm. they walk through the Dodgers. they have alot of trouble with an inferior Astros team and win a seven game series in which a Cards starter makes it into the seventh only once. in the WS, the Cards starters ERAs/IP

 

Marquis 3.86/7.0

Suppan 7.71/4.2

Morris 8.31/4.1

Williams 27.00/2.1

 

 

 

year after year LaRussa has teams that blowout their division, he refuses to rest his starters, and his starters fail him in the post season. he's one of the best regular season managers in history, but pretty much chokes his shot at the big prize year after year, despite having superior teams to those he faces almost every year. Maybe, just maybe if he saved them a few innings here and there throughout the regular season LaRussa wouldn't contiually see his starters get shelled in the post season.

 

Cub fans all saw it in 03 with Prior, Wood and Z, but the Cubs needed nearly every game to make the playoffs. LaRussa's teams have been in that position only once. you'd think he would learn his lesson, and you would think all Card fans would stop supporting some of his stupid philosphies, such as needlessly pushing his starters in the regular season.

Posted

 

final score, IP, pitch counts for Carpenter over the past two months

 

7-0, 9, 95

6-1, 8, 109

8-0, 9, 103

6-0, 8.2, 112

2-1, 8.0, 112

3-0, 9.0, 114

2-1, 9, 106

11-3, 7, 109

3-1, 9, 109

5-3, 8, 113

5-2, 9, 109

 

all with the Cards holding double digit lead in the division, all with the Cards having the least used bullpen in all of baseball.

 

hey, let's run a guy who had reconstructive surgery two years ago out for 250 innings. if I were a Cardinal fan, my feathers would be ruffled. WS > Cy Young.

 

so here we are about three weeks after I made this post. let's look and see what the Cards have been doing with Carpenter

 

8/19 5-4, 8+, 94 - a low pitch count game. LaRussa runs Carpenter out in the ninth trailing 0-2 and he gives up two more.

 

8/24 8-3, 8.0, 96 - a low pitch count game. the Cards put up a five spot in the top of the first and have a 6-2 lead going into the seventh. LaRussa leaves Carpenter in in another blow out.

 

8/29 6-1, 7.2, 94 - average pitch count for the point in the game. the Cards go into the bottom of the fifth with a 6-1 lead, but Carpenter is left in until he goes nearly 8. LaRussa chooses to use his two best right handers, Tavarez and Isringhausen, to mop up the final four outs with a five run lead.

 

9/3 4-2, 9, 120 - high pitch count in a duel between Clemens and Carpenter. Clemens is gone after 5 and the Cards take a 4-2 lead in the bottom of the seventh. LaRussa sticks with Carpenter to finish the game.

 

I did some research on this after this debate, and the Card fans who said this is what LaRussa always has done were absolutely correct. LaRussa has kept the peddle down throughout the regular season. with his history of failure in the post season, you'd think he would learn his lesson.

 

let's do a cursory review

 

1983 White Sox - the White Sox clinch their division earlier than any other team in baseball history. Lamar Hoyt, Richard Dotson, and Floyd Bannister are leaned on heavily, 261, 241, 217 innings respectively. Bannister gives up 4 in six innings in game two, Bannister is shelled in game three. the White Sox bow out of the playoffs to the O's.

 

1988 A's - the A's win the division by 13 games. Sterart 275, Welch 244, Davis 202. LaRussa refuses to go to a four man rotation in the post season. the World Series is dominated by the Dodgers pitching. Davis gives up six in game two. and Stewart gives up four in seven innings. Davis gives up four runs in four innings in the clinching game 5. the A's lose the World Series.

 

1989 A's - the A's win their division by 7 games. LaRussa eases up a little on his starters. Stewart 258, Moore 242, Welch 210, Davis 169. he goes with a four man rotation in the playoffs, and only needs two starters in the WS because of the earthquake. A's win it all

 

1990 A's - the A's win their division by 9 games. Stewart 267, Welch 238, Sanderson 206, Moore 199. the A's pitching dominates the playoffs giving up only 4 runs to the RedSox, but LaRussa is back to a three man rotation. Stewart and Moor get shelled in games 1 and 3. A's are swept in the WS.

 

1996 Cards - they win a woeful Central by six games. Benes 230, Stottleyer 223, Benes 191, Osborne 199. Again he goes with a three man rotation in the playoffs. Cards sweep in the first round and lose the Championship series, including losses of 14-0 and 15-0 after taking a 3-1 lead in the series.

 

2000 Cards - Cards win division by 10 games. Kile 232, Hentgen 194, Stephenson 200. Cards sweep the Braves in the division series, mostly due to their offence, but neither Ankiel or Stephenson stay in the game long enough to get a W. Ankiel melts down and both Hentgen and Kile get shelled in a 4-1 series loss.

 

2001 Cards - Cards win WC by two games over the Giants. Kile 227, Morris 216. the Cards lose in the divisional playoffs. Morris and Kile hold up ok. too much Schilling-Johnson for the Cards to handle.

 

2002 Cards - Cards win the division by 13 games. Morris 210, Williams 220, Finley 185. Cards win divisional with a good start from Morris and great bullpen work in the other two games (Finley goes six and pitches well, Benes pitches into the fifth. Morris is shelled in game one of the Championship series, Finley is roughted up in his start. Cards lose series 4-1.

 

2004 Cards - Cards blow out the division, but LaRussa refuses to use a sixth starter until Carpenter gets nerve damage in his arm. they walk through the Dodgers. they have alot of trouble with an inferior Astros team and win a seven game series in which a Cards starter makes it into the seventh only once. in the WS, the Cards starters ERAs/IP

 

Marquis 3.86/7.0

Suppan 7.71/4.2

Morris 8.31/4.1

Williams 27.00/2.1

 

 

 

year after year LaRussa has teams that blowout their division, he refuses to rest his starters, and his starters fail him in the post season. he's one of the best regular season managers in history, but pretty much chokes his shot at the big prize year after year, despite having superior teams to those he faces almost every year. Maybe, just maybe if he saved them a few innings here and there throughout the regular season LaRussa wouldn't contiually see his starters get shelled in the post season.

 

Cub fans all saw it in 03 with Prior, Wood and Z, but the Cubs needed nearly every game to make the playoffs. LaRussa's teams have been in that position only once. you'd think he would learn his lesson, and you would think all Card fans would stop supporting some of his stupid philosphies, such as needlessly pushing his starters in the regular season.

 

Nice analysis. Well done. We'll have to see what happens. However, history favors another disapointing post season for TLR.

Posted

 

final score, IP, pitch counts for Carpenter over the past two months

 

7-0, 9, 95

6-1, 8, 109

8-0, 9, 103

6-0, 8.2, 112

2-1, 8.0, 112

3-0, 9.0, 114

2-1, 9, 106

11-3, 7, 109

3-1, 9, 109

5-3, 8, 113

5-2, 9, 109

 

all with the Cards holding double digit lead in the division, all with the Cards having the least used bullpen in all of baseball.

 

hey, let's run a guy who had reconstructive surgery two years ago out for 250 innings. if I were a Cardinal fan, my feathers would be ruffled. WS > Cy Young.

 

so here we are about three weeks after I made this post. let's look and see what the Cards have been doing with Carpenter

 

8/19 5-4, 8+, 94 - a low pitch count game. LaRussa runs Carpenter out in the ninth trailing 0-2 and he gives up two more.

 

8/24 8-3, 8.0, 96 - a low pitch count game. the Cards put up a five spot in the top of the first and have a 6-2 lead going into the seventh. LaRussa leaves Carpenter in in another blow out.

 

8/29 6-1, 7.2, 94 - average pitch count for the point in the game. the Cards go into the bottom of the fifth with a 6-1 lead, but Carpenter is left in until he goes nearly 8. LaRussa chooses to use his two best right handers, Tavarez and Isringhausen, to mop up the final four outs with a five run lead.

 

9/3 4-2, 9, 120 - high pitch count in a duel between Clemens and Carpenter. Clemens is gone after 5 and the Cards take a 4-2 lead in the bottom of the seventh. LaRussa sticks with Carpenter to finish the game.

 

I did some research on this after this debate, and the Card fans who said this is what LaRussa always has done were absolutely correct. LaRussa has kept the peddle down throughout the regular season. with his history of failure in the post season, you'd think he would learn his lesson.

 

let's do a cursory review

 

1983 White Sox - the White Sox clinch their division earlier than any other team in baseball history. Lamar Hoyt, Richard Dotson, and Floyd Bannister are leaned on heavily, 261, 241, 217 innings respectively. Bannister gives up 4 in six innings in game two, Bannister is shelled in game three. the White Sox bow out of the playoffs to the O's.

 

1988 A's - the A's win the division by 13 games. Sterart 275, Welch 244, Davis 202. LaRussa refuses to go to a four man rotation in the post season. the World Series is dominated by the Dodgers pitching. Davis gives up six in game two. and Stewart gives up four in seven innings. Davis gives up four runs in four innings in the clinching game 5. the A's lose the World Series.

 

1989 A's - the A's win their division by 7 games. LaRussa eases up a little on his starters. Stewart 258, Moore 242, Welch 210, Davis 169. he goes with a four man rotation in the playoffs, and only needs two starters in the WS because of the earthquake. A's win it all

 

1990 A's - the A's win their division by 9 games. Stewart 267, Welch 238, Sanderson 206, Moore 199. the A's pitching dominates the playoffs giving up only 4 runs to the RedSox, but LaRussa is back to a three man rotation. Stewart and Moor get shelled in games 1 and 3. A's are swept in the WS.

 

1996 Cards - they win a woeful Central by six games. Benes 230, Stottleyer 223, Benes 191, Osborne 199. Again he goes with a three man rotation in the playoffs. Cards sweep in the first round and lose the Championship series, including losses of 14-0 and 15-0 after taking a 3-1 lead in the series.

 

2000 Cards - Cards win division by 10 games. Kile 232, Hentgen 194, Stephenson 200. Cards sweep the Braves in the division series, mostly due to their offence, but neither Ankiel or Stephenson stay in the game long enough to get a W. Ankiel melts down and both Hentgen and Kile get shelled in a 4-1 series loss.

 

2001 Cards - Cards win WC by two games over the Giants. Kile 227, Morris 216. the Cards lose in the divisional playoffs. Morris and Kile hold up ok. too much Schilling-Johnson for the Cards to handle.

 

2002 Cards - Cards win the division by 13 games. Morris 210, Williams 220, Finley 185. Cards win divisional with a good start from Morris and great bullpen work in the other two games (Finley goes six and pitches well, Benes pitches into the fifth. Morris is shelled in game one of the Championship series, Finley is roughted up in his start. Cards lose series 4-1.

 

2004 Cards - Cards blow out the division, but LaRussa refuses to use a sixth starter until Carpenter gets nerve damage in his arm. they walk through the Dodgers. they have alot of trouble with an inferior Astros team and win a seven game series in which a Cards starter makes it into the seventh only once. in the WS, the Cards starters ERAs/IP

 

Marquis 3.86/7.0

Suppan 7.71/4.2

Morris 8.31/4.1

Williams 27.00/2.1

 

 

 

year after year LaRussa has teams that blowout their division, he refuses to rest his starters, and his starters fail him in the post season. he's one of the best regular season managers in history, but pretty much chokes his shot at the big prize year after year, despite having superior teams to those he faces almost every year. Maybe, just maybe if he saved them a few innings here and there throughout the regular season LaRussa wouldn't contiually see his starters get shelled in the post season.

 

Cub fans all saw it in 03 with Prior, Wood and Z, but the Cubs needed nearly every game to make the playoffs. LaRussa's teams have been in that position only once. you'd think he would learn his lesson, and you would think all Card fans would stop supporting some of his stupid philosphies, such as needlessly pushing his starters in the regular season.

 

So you're shocked that guys like Hentgen, Stephenson, Stottlemyer, Osborne, Davis, Dotson, Bannister, etc. are getting roughed up in the World Series? Saying that they overachieved in the regular season would be closer to the truth than concluding that they underachieved in the post-season.

 

I'd like to see a similar study for other teams, to see if Larussa is better or worse. It would be interesting to see if Cox is doing something similar, with Atlanta, because we all know about his lack of post-season success.

 

You're basically concluding that Larussa is a post-season failure. Compared to.......... whom?? Joe Torre? OK. So a guy with a payroll twice as high as Larussa's has "shown us how to do it".

 

Who else?

 

 

The playoffs are basically a crap-shoot. You're over-analyzing it.

Posted
if we're saying that guys that aren't big names should be expected to fail in the playoffs, well, do you think the cardinals are doomed?

 

Well, they'll certainly have their hands full. I'm not counting on ANYTHING, that's for sure. I'm hoping that they can find a way to get the job done.

Posted
if we're saying that guys that aren't big names should be expected to fail in the playoffs, well, do you think the cardinals are doomed?

Nunez is finally starting to get caught up in his own web of lies. Taguchi as well.

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