Rolen regresses

[TruffleShuffle]

Then call Jim Leyland insane, because as a scout for the Cardinals who had seen alot of Pirate games, he BEGGED them to sign Nunez.

 

Wow that Jim Leyland sure knows baseball then, to know that a guy with career numbers worse than Jose Macias would all of a sudden become an above-average hitter.

 

Reyes had some VERY good years in the minor leagues (3.59 ERA, and 1.28 WHIP spready out over 15 years), but was never given a chance with a Major League club. Could it be that a little big-league coaching has pushed him over the top?

 

No. He's 35 years old, I'm pretty sure he has received plenty of coaching. And I don't see how a 3.59 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in the minor leagues translates to a 2.45 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in the bigs.

 

Chris Carpenter has had a TON of potential since the day he was drafted in the first round back in '94. The Cards didn't just get lucky with him. They made an investment (when nobody else was willing to) in a kid with a ton of potential, who was just coming off of surgery, and it's paying off for them now. It's not like they threw money at a journeyman, and he turned into gold.

 

He did have potential, but did anyone really think he'd reach it? He didn't do it in Toronto, even during his healthy years. His K/9IP in Toronto was around 6.50, he never gave up less than a hit per inning in a single season, and he walked about 3.5 guys per 9 innings. When you look at his numbers now compared to even his best year in Toronto, it's like night and day.

 

Duncan is a miracle-worker at times, I won't deny that. But I think it's a little unfair to call it all dumb luck.

 

If so, then the Mulder trade looks even worse in hindsight than most people think. If Duncan can turn a journeyman like Al Reyes into a great reliever, and an oft-injured former first round draft pick into a Cy Young candidate, why trade a young, cheap and talented pitcher (Haren) plus an excellent minor league bat for a more expensive pitcher? Why not just perform the miracles with the younger, cheaper pitcher?

 

 

Indifferent, your question about filling the Cards' 2B hole is a good one. I think Grudz will certainly want more than $1M next year, considering that he's now put together three solid years in a row. Nunez could have had a breakthrough this year, but there's also a good chance that this season is a fluke. If I were Jocketty, I would do what he usually does, and find an undervalued veteran (a la Grudz and Reggie Sanders) and sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal.

[TruffleShuffle]

The fact is, they are getting lucky with a lot of their players.

 

I almost fell out of my chair... a Cardinal fan admitting some good fortune? :lol:

 

I will also add that I have a bit of a double standard here, because I don't attribute what the Braves are doing to luck, and on paper they should not be nearly as good as they have been. Every minor leaguer that comes up for them seems to flourish, and every veteran they sign produces above and beyond what they're paying. But the reason I don't credit it to luck is because the Braves have been doing this for so long that logic says it can't be luck any more. A team can have good fortune shining on it for a couple of years, but more than a decade? They have to be doing something right, and I would give all the credit in Atlanta to John Schuerholtz, their scouting department, Bobby Cox and Leo Mazzone. That's not to say I don't think very highly of Jocketty, LaRussa and Duncan, because I do - but they simply don't have a track record of success that goes back 10-15 years.

[XZero771679666304]

Carpenter has one full season in his 8+ years in the bigs. For one reason or another, he has NEVER been consistently healthy. By comparison, Kerry Wood is a rock. With someone who has a long history of ill health, discretion is always the better part of valor. There is no magic Cardinal pill that will ensure Carp's health.

 

So what do you suggest? You think the Cards should shut down a perfectly healthy pitcher for the rest of the season?

 

The Cards are making a point to give ALL of their starters an extra day off here and there (as I've already explained). After September call-ups, they'll probably get even MORE rest.

 

As for the Kerry Wood comparison, I think that most experts agree that his mechanics are horrible, and that's why he's hurt all the time. To my knowledge, Carpenter's mechanics are very good, so I'm not sure that I'd be overly worried.

 

the time for suggestion has long since passed, and that's the point. LaRussa blew the chance to save his arm for the stretch run. I don't see how the starters have gotten extra days rest when only one start has been made from someone not on the five man. don't forget too that they went with a four man for the first couple weeks of the season. I personally don't think going to a six man rotation is the greatest idea ever either.

 

as for the Kerry Wood comparison, assuming what you say is true, shouldn't you be concerned that someone with "very good" mechanics seems to get injured all the time, especially since those are arm injuries and not fluke injuries (ala Prior). Player A - bad mechanics, injury history, injury cause can be corrected; Player B - very good mechanics, injury history, what can be done to predict and prevent injuries?

 

He doesn't get injured "all the time". He missed part of 2002 and all of 2003 because of surgery. Other than that, he's pitched over 150 innings every full year of his career. He had a fluky nerve problem last September, but it had nothing to do with his workload. He's no more of an injury risk than anybody else.

 

Furthermore, how do you come up with "8+ years"?

 

He was brought up in '97 (for 1/2 year)

 

'98

'99

'00

'01

'02

'03

'04

 

That's 7 years.

 

He went down midway through '02, and missed all of '03.

 

Other than that, he's pitched 150 innings or more every single year. Wood has pitched 150 innings only 4 times in his career.

 

150 innings isn't the mark of a full season. For a starter, 32-35 starts and 180+ innings is a full season. Missing a start hurts your team more than going an inning or two less. This is Carp's eighth season, although it isn't over yet.

 

Carpenters # of starts: 13, 24, 24, 27, 34, 13, 0, 28, and 24 this year. The man has a history of missing starts.

 

If you average Carpenter's seasons, minus his first half season and missed season he averages: 25 starts and 162 innings.

 

If you do the same for Wood, you get 30 starts and 175 innings.

 

Neither is great, but Wood has been more durable, up until this season.

[XZero771679666304]

 

So what do you suggest? You think the Cards should shut down a perfectly healthy pitcher for the rest of the season?

 

 

I suggest Tony start pulling Carp after 6 innings from here on out, unless the game is in doubt, and regardless of how Chris feels about it. I would rest him for at least two starts in Sept, as you say will be done. I would also do this for Morris, who looks like crap lately. With as big a lead as you have, both in the division and for home field, and with the Astros leveling off, I can't think of one good reason to keep going full bore, even in August.

 

Why 6 innings? Are innings more important than pitch counts?

 

Why so literal? I agree with what xzero's saying, we need to back off the pedal with Carp. If it's a blow out game, take Carp out. Even if it's not, I also agree we have nothing to gain and everything to lose. He's not a show pony, he's a key component to a deep playoff run.

 

You get it. K-Town either doesn't or doesn't want to (or is just being difficult).

 

This is just common sense.

[K-Town]

Wow that Jim Leyland sure knows baseball then, to know that a guy with career numbers worse than Jose Macias would all of a sudden become an above-average hitter.

 

Nunez is far less of an overachiever than Derrek Lee this year, don't you think? So why are the Cards luckier than the Cubs?

 

 

 

No. He's 35 years old, I'm pretty sure he has received plenty of coaching. And I don't see how a 3.59 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in the minor leagues translates to a 2.45 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in the bigs.

 

If it happens for a year, then it's lucky. When it continues, then I have to assume that Duncan spotted something that nobody else had, and made some necessary adjustments.

 

He did have potential, but did anyone really think he'd reach it? He didn't do it in Toronto, even during his healthy years. His K/9IP in Toronto was around 6.50, he never gave up less than a hit per inning in a single season, and he walked about 3.5 guys per 9 innings. When you look at his numbers now compared to even his best year in Toronto, it's like night and day.

 

 

The Cards obviously saw something that they liked alot. The invested in him a full year before he was ready to start pitching again. If he had been special for a year, I'd call it "luck". 2 years in a row? There seems to be a pattern.

 

 

 

If so, then the Mulder trade looks even worse in hindsight than most people think. If Duncan can turn a journeyman like Al Reyes into a great reliever, and an oft-injured former first round draft pick into a Cy Young candidate, why trade a young, cheap and talented pitcher (Haren) plus an excellent minor league bat for a more expensive pitcher? Why not just perform the miracles with the younger, cheaper pitcher?

 

Duncan obviously didn't see what he wanted to see in Haren, and did see what he wanted to in Mulder. I can't speak for Duncan. Haren wasn't "proven", and Mulder was. The Cards' main priority over the off-season was to acquire a proven shut-down pitcher to complement Carpenter in the playoffs. I'm not convinced yet that Mulder is that guy, but I'm also not convinced that Haren will ever be that guy.

[1wizard]

this is exactly what I figured the response would be. there seems to be alot of Card fans who refuse to question anything Larussa does or says, no matter how stupid.

 

There are Cardinal fans that do not question Tony's every move. I have yet to meet one. Most of Cardinal Nation has a dislike for his management style. I used to hate the way he managed, but it is hard to argue with the results he is getting out of his team. Moreover, the man will be a future HOF manager and is very competitive and prepared. Maybe just maybe, this guy knows what he is doing, and the rest of us are only writing about it on the computer.

 

And maybe to shed some light on the Carp's innings/pitch count discussion, I will quote TLR himself. He stated during the Cubs series that "there is a very fine line between winning and losing." He went on to talk about how his team cannot afford to try to coast the rest of the season. Therefore, it is his philosophy that the team continues to push forward.

 

The best analogy I can think of is a coach that I used to play for. He was known for his deadly full court press and would utilize it when the team is winning by a landslide. He was severly criticized for doing so. Yet, his philosophy was much like TLR's. In fact, he told a newspaper reporter that it would be unfair for his subs not to get to utilize what they learned in practice in the game situations. Moreover, he reasoned that if an injuried occurred that the other players would be more prepared. He was the best coach that I have ever played for because he would stick to his philosophy.

 

What kind of message does it send to pull out Carp when he is rolling along in a game. We are going to play as hard as we can to win but as soon as Carp rolls thru 6 or 7 innings with only 70 pitches I am going to pull him. The fine line comes in when Carp might those that mental edge of closing games out.

 

I don't have all the answers, but I do know that Tony wants to win just as bad as I do. And he has far more experience than all of us combined.

Edited August 18, 2005 by 1wizard

[K-Town]

 

So what do you suggest? You think the Cards should shut down a perfectly healthy pitcher for the rest of the season?

 

 

I suggest Tony start pulling Carp after 6 innings from here on out, unless the game is in doubt, and regardless of how Chris feels about it. I would rest him for at least two starts in Sept, as you say will be done. I would also do this for Morris, who looks like crap lately. With as big a lead as you have, both in the division and for home field, and with the Astros leveling off, I can't think of one good reason to keep going full bore, even in August.

 

Why 6 innings? Are innings more important than pitch counts?

 

Why so literal? I agree with what xzero's saying, we need to back off the pedal with Carp. If it's a blow out game, take Carp out. Even if it's not, I also agree we have nothing to gain and everything to lose. He's not a show pony, he's a key component to a deep playoff run.

 

You get it. K-Town either doesn't or doesn't want to (or is just being difficult).

 

This is just common sense.

 

Don't get WHAT? Is there a history of great pitchers breaking down after 170 innings? I'm not sure what you're basing the assumption on that Carpenter will "break down". I've already TOLD you that the September call-ups will likely provide some relief for ALL of the starters. You guys act like Carpenter is throwing 130 pitches and not being pulled from a game until he's spent. He's averaging around 100 pitches per game. That's not bad at all. And I can't remember him looking "spent" late in a game. He looks stronger at the end than at the beginning.

 

Should Pujols be shut down also, so that he doesn't hurt himself?

 

What about Morris? Marquis? Mulder? Suppan? They've all pitched alot of innings. Do you suggest pulling them ALL after 6 innings, and making darn sure that the bullpen is whupped before the playoffs start?

[K-Town]

this is exactly what I figured the response would be. there seems to be alot of Card fans who refuse to question anything Larussa does or says, no matter how stupid.

 

There are Cardinal fans that do not question Tony's every move. I have yet to meet one. Most of Cardinal Nation has a dislike for his management style. I used to hate the way he managed, but it is hard to argue with the results he is getting out of his team. Moreover, the man will be a future HOF manager and is very competitive and prepared. Maybe just maybe, this guy knows what he is doing, and the rest of us are only writing about it on the computer.

 

And maybe to shed some light on the Carp's innings/pitch count discussion, I will quote TLR himself. He stated during the Cubs series that "there is a very fine line between winning and losing." He went on to talk about how his team cannot afford to try to coast the rest of the season. Therefore, it is his philosophy that the team continues to push forward.

 

The best analogy I can think of is a coach that I used to play for. He was known for his deadly full court press and would utilize it when the team is winning by a landslide. He was severly criticized for doing so. Yet, his philosophy was much like TLR's. In fact, he told a newspaper reporter that be unfair for his subs not to get to utilize what they learned in practice in the game situations. Moreover, he reasoned that if an injuried occurred that the other players would be more prepared. He was the best coach that I have ever played for because he would stick to his philosophy.

 

What kind of message does it send to pull out Carp when he is rolling along in a game. We are going to play as hard as we can to win but as soon as Carp rolls thru 6 or 7 innings with only 70 pitches I am going to pull him. The fine line comes in when Carp might those that mental edge of closing games out.

 

I don't have all the answers, but I do know that Tony wants to win just as bad as I do. And he has far more experience than all of us combined.

 

You get it. Many folks here don't (or just don't want to, or are just being difficult). :wink:

[wolf stansson]

The fact is, they are getting lucky with a lot of their players.

 

I almost fell out of my chair... a Cardinal fan admitting some good fortune? :lol:

I think it's a kind of misunderstanding. I think some people hear the word "luck" and they immediately think you are comparing the overachieving performances with Walt Jocketty walking down the street and randomly finding a $20 bill on the ground. I think what you mean is that the overachievers are exceeding even the organization's expectations. It's not unfounded blind luck, but it is luck in the sense that even Walt and Co. had no idea they would be this good. The talent may have been there (Al Reyes and Carp have always had good stuff and Nunez has talent) but there was no reason to believe these guys would ever realize their ability.

[indifferent]

this is exactly what I figured the response would be. there seems to be alot of Card fans who refuse to question anything Larussa does or says, no matter how stupid.

 

There are Cardinal fans that do not question Tony's every move. I have yet to meet one. Most of Cardinal Nation has a dislike for his management style. I used to hate the way he managed, but it is hard to argue with the results he is getting out of his team. Moreover, the man will be a future HOF manager and is very competitive and prepared. Maybe just maybe, this guy knows what he is doing, and the rest of us are only writing about it on the computer.

 

And maybe to shed some light on the Carp's innings/pitch count discussion, I will quote TLR himself. He stated during the Cubs series that "there is a very fine line between winning and losing." He went on to talk about how his team cannot afford to try to coast the rest of the season. Therefore, it is his philosophy that the team continues to push forward.

 

The best analogy I can think of is a coach that I used to play for. He was known for his deadly full court press and would utilize it when the team is winning by a landslide. He was severly criticized for doing so. Yet, his philosophy was much like TLR's. In fact, he told a newspaper reporter that it would be unfair for his subs not to get to utilize what they learned in practice in the game situations. Moreover, he reasoned that if an injuried occurred that the other players would be more prepared. He was the best coach that I have ever played for because he would stick to his philosophy.

 

What kind of message does it send to pull out Carp when he is rolling along in a game. We are going to play as hard as we can to win but as soon as Carp rolls thru 6 or 7 innings with only 70 pitches I am going to pull him. The fine line comes in when Carp might those that mental edge of closing games out.

 

I don't have all the answers, but I do know that Tony wants to win just as bad as I do. And he has far more experience than all of us combined.

 

I'm not sure about the message part, what sort of message does it send to the bullpen when you never use them and what service does it do to them if you don't use them in tight games?

 

We're not in a must win scenario.

 

Plus, Tony is the same guy who played a bunch of his bench players towards the end of last year to the point where it rankled Cubs and Astros fans alike?

[EastonBlues22]

don't forget too that they went with a four man for the first couple weeks of the season.

That was allowed to happen because the scheduled off days permitted it. I'm almost 100% positive that there wasn't a single start by any starter on short rest in that span.

[1wizard]

I'm not sure about the message part, what sort of message does it send to the bullpen when you never use them and what service does it do to them if you don't use them in tight games?

 

We're not in a must win scenario.

 

Plus, Tony is the same guy who played a bunch of his bench players towards the end of last year to the point where it rankled Cubs and Astros fans alike?[/quote]

 

My point is that TLR has a philosophy for his team. If that philosophy is to keep playing hard nosed baseball until they have the playoff spot locked up than that is for him to sell to his players. Yet, if he says that then decides to pull Carp in the 6th or 7th despite the fact that he is rolling and only thrown 70 pitches that sends a message to the rest of your team.

 

And as you pointed out, I have never heard of TLR running his players in the ground. In fact, he is severly criticized for over using bench players. So he will get his players, including Carp, some rest toward the end of the season. And I do remember some Cub fans ripping TLR because they thought he was going to throw games inorder to undo the Cubs hopes of a WC birth. Funny that now some fans are calling him out because he is using his starters too much. Sounds like a rock and a hard place. I guess that is why he is getting paid the big bucks.

[K-Town]

The fact is, they are getting lucky with a lot of their players.

 

I almost fell out of my chair... a Cardinal fan admitting some good fortune? :lol:

I think it's a kind of misunderstanding. I think some people hear the word "luck" and they immediately think you are comparing the overachieving performances with Walt Jocketty walking down the street and randomly finding a $20 bill on the ground. I think what you mean is that the overachievers are exceeding even the organization's expectations. It's not unfounded blind luck, but it is luck in the sense that even Walt and Co. had no idea they would be this good. The talent may have been there (Al Reyes and Carp have always had good stuff and Nunez has talent) but there was no reason to believe these guys would ever realize their ability.

 

I totally agree. But there's been bad luck too. And there's been good and bad luck for every team in baseball. It's not something that's exclusive to the Cardinals, which is what's been implied. You don't win the division by 15 games for 2 years in a row, and make the playoffs almost every year because you're "luckier" than every other team.

 

If the Cards are so "lucky", then why no World Series title? :cry:

[1wizard]

what sort of message does it send to the bullpen when you never use them and what service does it do to them if you don't use them in tight games

 

The message is simple: I will use you when I need you. The bullpen is getting plenty of use thanks to Morris, Marquis, and Suppan.

 

Man I would like to see you come take the ball from Carp in the 6th or 7th inning when he is cruising.

[TruffleShuffle]

Nunez is far less of an overachiever than Derrek Lee this year, don't you think?

 

No. Lee at least was a good player before this season, albeit not a great one. Nunez was a terrible player and has been above-average this year.

 

So why are the Cards luckier than the Cubs?

 

Check the threads with the word "luck" and the word "SCRUBS" in them. I'm not going to go through it again, but the Cards have far more guys who are outperforming expectations than do the Cubs. The Cubs have a grand total of three guys who it could be argued are doing better than they "should" be: Lee, Ramirez (which I don't agree with, by the way, since he's only 27 and should still be improving) and Jose Macias. You can throw Nomar, Patterson, Hollandsworth, Prior, Wood, and Remlinger in the "disappointment" bin, along with a few marginal bullpen arms like Wellemeyer, Leicester and Borowski. Burnitz is playing his way into the disappointment category as well.

[indifferent]

The Cards are underachieving and the Cards are overachieving. It's a fair statement.

[UK1679666180]

Pitcher Abuse Points and pitch counts as far as trying to analyze who is being abused is one of the worst ways to do so.

 

Different pitchers, different situations.

 

If everyone had the same mechanics, same recovery time after each start, same workout schedule between starts, same age, same body, pitched in a dome, same pitches, then PAP/PC can be valid.

 

But, if you're telling me that Maddux going 90 pitches is the same as Zambrano going 90 pitches as far as fatigue levels and injury risks, something isn't right.

 

Want to know if a pitcher is being abused? See how often he is throwing while fatigued... How to tell if a pitcher is fatigued? Overthrowing, longer delays between pitches, control issues, mental lapses.

 

The fatigue index can't be monitored over the course of a season, it is a start by start gauge.

 

There have been times when the same pitcher has been fatigued after 75 pitches and the following start fatigued after 105, it all depends on that day and how his body feels.

[SirPlopigus]

Pitcher Abuse Points and pitch counts as far as trying to analyze who is being abused is one of the worst ways to do so.

 

Different pitchers, different situations.

 

If everyone had the same mechanics, same recovery time after each start, same workout schedule between starts, same age, same body, pitched in a dome, same pitches, then PAP/PC can be valid.

 

But, if you're telling me that Maddux going 90 pitches is the same as Zambrano going 90 pitches as far as fatigue levels and injury risks, something isn't right.

 

Want to know if a pitcher is being abused? See how often he is throwing while fatigued... How to tell if a pitcher is fatigued? Overthrowing, longer delays between pitches, control issues, mental lapses.

 

The fatigue index can't be monitored over the course of a season, it is a start by start gauge.

 

There have been times when the same pitcher has been fatigued after 75 pitches and the following start fatigued after 105, it all depends on that day and how his body feels.

The fact that Carpenter can go deep into games throwing a little amount of pitches and still be very effective shows that he has great stamina and isn't being abused.

 

Isn't this thread supposed to be about Rolen anyway? :lol:

[1wizard]

Pitcher Abuse Points and pitch counts as far as trying to analyze who is being abused is one of the worst ways to do so.

 

Different pitchers, different situations.

 

If everyone had the same mechanics, same recovery time after each start, same workout schedule between starts, same age, same body, pitched in a dome, same pitches, then PAP/PC can be valid.

 

But, if you're telling me that Maddux going 90 pitches is the same as Zambrano going 90 pitches as far as fatigue levels and injury risks, something isn't right.

 

Want to know if a pitcher is being abused? See how often he is throwing while fatigued... How to tell if a pitcher is fatigued? Overthrowing, longer delays between pitches, control issues, mental lapses.

 

The fatigue index can't be monitored over the course of a season, it is a start by start gauge.

 

There have been times when the same pitcher has been fatigued after 75 pitches and the following start fatigued after 105, it all depends on that day and how his body feels.

 

Well said, UK.

[1wizard]

Isn't this thread supposed to be about Rolen anyway?

 

Who?

 

Rolen is toast this season, and if he does come back he will not be affective. I would much rather see him get the medical treatment (surgery) and be ready for spring training. At which time, they need to teach him to avoid colliding into players: Choi and Cintron.

[Criminal5]

Nunez is far less of an overachiever than Derrek Lee this year, don't you think?

 

No. Lee at least was a good player before this season, albeit not a great one. Nunez was a terrible player and has been above-average this year.

 

Nunez has seen a 185-point boost in OPS.

 

Lee? 240.

[UK1679666180]

The fact that Carpenter can go deep into games throwing a little amount of pitches and still be very effective shows that he has great stamina and isn't being abused.

 

No, it means he is efficent with his pitches throwing deep into a ballgame that doesn't equate to him not being abused.

 

The only way you can tell if a pitcher is or isn't being abused is thru sight. I haven't watched all of his starts, so I can't you tell if he's been left put there while fatigued, the low pitch counts decrease the odds but guarantee nothing.

 

You can tell if a manager/PC is being careless by leaving a pitcher in there despite the score. Baker was terrible with this w/Zambrano last year and it appears LaRussa has been with Carpenter at times.

[Criminal5]

I've caught just about every Carpenter start except for a few games early in the season when I was still in class and I can tell you for sure that the last thing Carpenter looks to be when he's going into the 8th and 9th innings is fatigued.

[indifferent]

The fact that Carpenter can go deep into games throwing a little amount of pitches and still be very effective shows that he has great stamina and isn't being abused.

 

No, it means he is efficent with his pitches throwing deep into a ballgame that doesn't equate to him not being abused.

 

The only way you can tell if a pitcher is or isn't being abused is thru sight. I haven't watched all of his starts, so I can't you tell if he's been left put there while fatigued, the low pitch counts decrease the odds but guarantee nothing.

 

You can tell if a manager/PC is being careless by leaving a pitcher in there despite the score. Baker was terrible with this w/Zambrano last year and it appears LaRussa has been with Carpenter at times.

 

Ahh, I knew there was a reason I watched every game this year, save a few! Given that criteria, I can tell you that Marquis has definitely been abused this year, Morris not too far behind him. The last time I saw Carp fatigued, working slowly, or laboring was his blow up against Philly in April.

[TruffleShuffle]

Nunez is far less of an overachiever than Derrek Lee this year, don't you think?

 

No. Lee at least was a good player before this season, albeit not a great one. Nunez was a terrible player and has been above-average this year.

 

Nunez has seen a 185-point boost in OPS.

 

Lee? 240.

 

OK, so considering that Lee was actually a bit of a disappointment last season (114 OPS+ versus 131 and 135 the previous two seasons), it's about even. Either way, you're talking about one of two or three Cubs who have exceeded expectations... not exactly a club full of overachievers.