Clemens,Carpenter, or Willis for Cy Young? (edit)

[IlliniAmy]

If you take wins out of the equation, the Cy clearly belongs to Clemens. I'm quite aware that many aren't willing to do that, but that is what it boils down to.

 

I take wins out of the equation, no problem. It's still not clear to me.

[TruffleShuffle]

Carpenter's ERA is now around half of what his career ERA was coming into this season. It's things like these that make me want to vomit.

[indifferent]

Carpenter's ERA is now around half of what his career ERA was coming into this season. It's things like these that make me want to vomit.

 

The guy wasn't a stiff last year.

[ManEatingTarp]

Tonights line for Carp.

 

IP PC H ER BB K

7.0 96 3 0 1 7

 

The dude can pitch.

Looks like win #21. That's 10 more wins than Clemens, and the rest of the #s are getting closer except IP and Ks which Carp is gonna walk away with. The ERA and BA will end up in the Clemens collum, but it won't be enough to tip the Cy Young scale his way imo.

[ManEatingTarp]

Carpenter's ERA is now around half of what his career ERA was coming into this season. It's things like these that make me want to vomit.

 

It's comments like this that crack me up Truffle.

Career norms have been killing you this year.

[indifferent]

Carpenter's ERA is now around half of what his career ERA was coming into this season. It's things like these that make me want to vomit.

 

It's comments like this that crack me up Truffle.

Career norms have been killing you this year.

 

Maybe try trends?

[treebird]

Carpenter's ERA is now around half of what his career ERA was coming into this season. It's things like these that make me want to vomit.

 

It's comments like this that crack me up Truffle.

Career norms have been killing you this year.

 

Maybe try trends?

 

2001- decent season

2002-13 bad starts, followed by death

2003-dead

2004-best season of career

2005-even better season, by a huge margin

 

yeah thats a normal career path

[EastonBlues22]

yeah thats a normal career path

The only reason why the concept of "normal" exists is because there are exeptions to normalcy...those exceptions are difficult to predict, but a certain number should be expected to happen over time.

 

Carpenter was highly drafted, and considered to have a ton of talent. You would "normally" expect a pitcher to improve until his late 20s to early 30s before his production levels off and then begins to decline. His career path might not have been normal, but the fact that his last two seasons have been very good isn't that much of a reach. Everyone knew he had talent and he's still at an age where improvement can be expected...it's just the magnitude of the improvement has thrown people for a loop.

 

Still, I think what Clemens is doing at 43 is much less "normal" than what Carpenter has done over the last two years. People with talent have overcome slow starts to careers and surgeries to realize their talent and have great success. It doesn't happen all the time, but it happens a lot more often than 43 year olds put up one of the most dominating pitching performances of not only their careers, but of modern times.

[1908]

Still, I think what Clemens is doing at 43 is much less "normal" than what Carpenter has done over the last two years. People with talent have overcome slow starts to careers and surgeries to realize their talent and have great success. It doesn't happen all the time, but it happens a lot more often than 43 year olds put up one of the most dominating pitching performances of not only their careers, but of modern times.

Do you think one of the most dominating pitching performances of modern times produced by one of the greatest pitchers of all time (if not the greatest) deserves the Cy Young?

[K-Town]

Clemens isn't the the only candidate chasing history.

 

Carpenter has started 22 games in a row in which he allowed three runs or fewer while pitching six innings, the longest stretch of consecutive quality starts in the NL since Bob Gibson also did it 22 straight times in 1968.

 

I'm not sure how far back you'll have to go after Carpenter's next start, to find someone who has performed this consistently over an extended period of time.

[IlliniAmy]

Do you think one of the most dominating pitching performances of modern times produced by one of the greatest pitchers of all time (if not the greatest) deserves the Cy Young?

 

That's an easy one...yes. However, I think that a certain other pitcher, who is also producing one of the most dominating pitching performances of modern times, who just doesn't happen to have the career clout, also deserves the Cy Young.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Clemens isn't the the only candidate chasing history.

 

Carpenter has started 22 games in a row in which he allowed three runs or fewer while pitching six innings, the longest stretch of consecutive quality starts in the NL since Bob Gibson also did it 22 straight times in 1968.

 

I'm not sure how far back you'll have to go after Carpenter's next start, to find someone who has performed this consistently over an extended period of time.

 

I might be mistaken, but didn't Beurhle go like 46 games with this same stat? And the only reason his streak ended was because he was ejected? Either way, it's an impressive stat none the less.

[IlliniAmy]

Buehrle's consective streak was "at least 6 innings pitched", not necessarily quality starts.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Buehrle's consective streak was "at least 6 innings pitched", not necessarily quality starts.

 

Ah, that's what it was. I knew it was something like that, just wasn't sure it was quality starts. Thanks.

[K-Town]

Clemens isn't the the only candidate chasing history.

 

Carpenter has started 22 games in a row in which he allowed three runs or fewer while pitching six innings, the longest stretch of consecutive quality starts in the NL since Bob Gibson also did it 22 straight times in 1968.

 

I'm not sure how far back you'll have to go after Carpenter's next start, to find someone who has performed this consistently over an extended period of time.

 

I might be mistaken, but didn't Beurhle go like 46 games with this same stat? And the only reason his streak ended was because he was ejected? Either way, it's an impressive stat none the less.

 

All I can find is that Beuhrle went 6 or more innings in 45 straight starts, but I'm not sure if they were "quality starts". Maybe somebody else can correct me.

 

 

Somebody else said that Carpenter hasn't lost to a NL team since May (his last lost was against the Red Sox in June). He's 13-0 in his last 16 starts, and the Cards are 16-0. He's also something like 15-2 following a Cardinal loss, so he's definitely been a "stopper".

[wolf stansson]

Somebody else said that Carpenter hasn't lost to a NL team since May (his last lost was against the Red Sox in June).

[sarcasm]Wow. The only possible conclusion I can come to with that info is that he is going to choke like no other come playoff time. [/sarcasm]

[EastonBlues22]

Still, I think what Clemens is doing at 43 is much less "normal" than what Carpenter has done over the last two years. People with talent have overcome slow starts to careers and surgeries to realize their talent and have great success. It doesn't happen all the time, but it happens a lot more often than 43 year olds put up one of the most dominating pitching performances of not only their careers, but of modern times.

Do you think one of the most dominating pitching performances of modern times produced by one of the greatest pitchers of all time (if not the greatest) deserves the Cy Young?

Just for clarification, my post had nothing to do with who I thought deserves, or will win, the Cy Young...it was merely a response to Treebeard's comment of "yeah, that's a normal career path" or whatever it was. Carpenter's story isn't even the least probable pitching performance in his own division...perhaps not even on his own team if you consider Mulder and Morris.

 

If you were asking purely out of curiousity, my standard response with all my friends has been I wish nothing more out of postseason awards than a consistency in how they are awarded. If a gold glove is going to go to the best fielding percentage at a position, then make it like that for every position every year...you may disagree with if that really gets at the heart of the award, but at least people know exactly what winning the award means and that meaning holds true across time.

 

I want the same thing out of the MVP and Cy Young races...I really don't care if the award goes to the best sabermetric player, or the one who qualifies as the best choice more "traditionally," or if it goes to the best player on a playoff team or whatever. Just make it consistent...I think, at the heart of things, that's all anyone anywhere really wants.

 

Personally, I could care less about whether Pujols or Lee wins the MVP, or if Carpenter or Clemens wins the Cy Young...they are nice recognitions, but winning them or not winning them won't change at all what they actually did. And the seasons all four of them have put together speak for themselves. Anyone with any baseball acumen whatsoever realizes that Clemens and Carpenter are BOTH putting on spectacular displays of domination the likes of which have been rarely seen in the modern era. Let the votes fall where they will, that won't change the facts.

[1908]

for clarification, my post had nothing to do with who I thought deserves, or will win, the Cy Young.

I'm aware of that. Your response didn't have much to do with who you think deserves to win the Cy Young either. :D

[ManEatingTarp]

I know that a lot of the this is how valued Wins are. That being said, I figured I'd throw some more gas on the fire.

When this thread started (a really lone time ago) Clemens had 11 wins and Carpenter had 17. Carpenter now has 21 wins, and poor Roger is stuck on 11. Imo Carpenter has sealed the deal on the Cy in the last 2 weeks.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Pitcher's Vorp

 

Clemens: 80.3

Carpenter: 74.0

Willis: 64.1

[reggiemiller rules]

Pitcher's Vorp

 

Clemens: 80.3

Carpenter: 74.0

Willis: 64.1

 

you dont happen to know what it was wan this thread started do you Vance. Wondering I would assume that Carp has caught up some since then but just wondering.

[ManEatingTarp]

In my new appointment as "smartest fan" due to my fantasy league domination, I have ruled that Carpenter will win the Cy Young.

 

Everyone can move on to another topic now.

 

:D

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Continuing to look at the stats:

 

WS (updated thru 9/6)

1. Clemens 24

2. Willis 21

3. Oswalt 20

4. Pettite 19

5. Carpenter 19

 

PR (updated through 9/8)

1. Clemens 58

2. Carpenter 54

3. Willis 43

 

ERA+

1. Clemens 296

2. Carpenter 206

3. Pettite 192

4. Willis 174

 

Carpenter is gaining. Clemens may go tonight depending on his balky hamstring. Even if he pitches, I doubt he goes more than six innings. I think in the voters minds, Carpenter has made up the difference. I'd still go with Clemens, but Carpenter continues to close the gap. It's going to take one hell of an effort from Willis to make up the differences in my mind.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Pitcher's Vorp

 

Clemens: 80.3

Carpenter: 74.0

Willis: 64.1

 

you dont happen to know what it was wan this thread started do you Vance. Wondering I would assume that Carp has caught up some since then but just wondering.

 

I don't know what they were then. I should have looked, but I didn't. I definitely think Carpenter is making up some ground. My guess is that he's passed Clemens in the eyes of the majority of the BBWAA. As I just wrote in another post, Carpenter is making some strides, but I'd still go with Clemens. I might change my mind before the season is over. Hell, that change could come after Clemens goes tonight. We'll see.

[EastonBlues22]

for clarification, my post had nothing to do with who I thought deserves, or will win, the Cy Young.

I'm aware of that. Your response didn't have much to do with who you think deserves to win the Cy Young either. :D

:lol: Yeah...honestly, I've given it maybe four minutes of thought since June. I tend to put most of my thinking into my hockey and golf games, and just let the rest of the sports world sort itself out on its own. It's not that I think discussing something like this is a waste of time...far from it...it's just that I prefer to think about things that I have some semblance of control over, or that I think have some sort of conclusion.

 

I do find conversations like these fascinating though...this board is a treasure trove.