Clemens,Carpenter, or Willis for Cy Young? (edit)

[K-Town]

Amy, go out and throw 98 pitches. Then tell me how much your fastball is cracking. It may not be exhausted, but it's tired. Compare that to a lights out closer that is fresh, and tell me which one is more likely to be effective.

 

Carpenter is more effective that Clemens, Lidge, Izzy, Cordero..... everybody, in the late innings.

[JGalt73]

K-town, you want a better argument, try posting only this - "BABIP (and the Astros defense looks about the same as the Cards)."

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Amy, go out and throw 98 pitches. Then tell me how much your fastball is cracking. It may not be exhausted, but it's tired. Compare that to a lights out closer that is fresh, and tell me which one is more likely to be effective.

 

Carpenter is more effective that Clemens, Lidge, Izzy, Cordero..... everybody, in the late innings.

 

So then you don't need Izzy then? Can the Cubs have him? Cause we're a team that believes the bullpen is there for a reason. Mainly so that you don't burn your starters into the ground when you have a huge lead on the division, and when they've only gone over 200 innings once. But I guess the playoffs aren't important right?

[K-Town]

Yeah, that's great. But it doesnt outweigh the fact that Clemens has been so much better in his IP, that he has still been more valuable than Carpenter, despite the IP advantage.

 

Obviously, you cant/wont agree.

 

"More valuable" is an extremely arbitrary term. We've been discussing it for 35 pages.

 

It's arbitrary when you ignore the number of quantitative metrics that favor Clemens when trying to determine how valuable a pitcher is.

 

I'm not ignoring them. The metrics don't tell us everything, though.

 

Last Saturday's match-up was a great example. Clemens pitched well, and came away with good "metric", and so did Carpenter. But Carpenter's contribution to his team was so much greater that it wasn't even a contest. The fact that Carpenter gave his team 9 solid innings (while Clemens gave his team 5), following the 13-inning affair the night before, is somewhat a microcosm of why I think Carpenter often helps his team more than the metrics tell us.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Amy, go out and throw 98 pitches. Then tell me how much your fastball is cracking. It may not be exhausted, but it's tired. Compare that to a lights out closer that is fresh, and tell me which one is more likely to be effective.

 

Carpenter is more effective that Clemens, Lidge, Izzy, Cordero..... everybody, in the late innings.

 

And Clemens is more effective than Carpenter in innings 1-6.

[K-Town]

K-town, you want a better argument, try posting only this - "BABIP (and the Astros defense looks about the same as the Cards)."

 

I'm too stupid to know what you mean. :?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yeah, that's great. But it doesnt outweigh the fact that Clemens has been so much better in his IP, that he has still been more valuable than Carpenter, despite the IP advantage.

 

Obviously, you cant/wont agree.

 

"More valuable" is an extremely arbitrary term. We've been discussing it for 35 pages.

 

It's arbitrary when you ignore the number of quantitative metrics that favor Clemens when trying to determine how valuable a pitcher is.

 

I'm not ignoring them. The metrics don't tell us everything, though.

 

Last Saturday's match-up was a great example. Clemens pitched well, and came away with good "metric", and so did Carpenter. But Carpenter's contribution to his team was so much greater that it wasn't even a contest. The fact that Carpenter gave his team 9 solid innings (while Clemens gave his team 5), following the 13-inning affair the night before, is somewhat a microcosm of why I think Carpenter often helps his team more than the metrics tell us.

 

I was waiting for the situational stuff to come back again. Guess who the "metrics" said was better on that particular night? Carpenter, he allowed the same amount of runs in more innings, it's not that hard to grasp.

[K-Town]

Amy, go out and throw 98 pitches. Then tell me how much your fastball is cracking. It may not be exhausted, but it's tired. Compare that to a lights out closer that is fresh, and tell me which one is more likely to be effective.

 

Carpenter is more effective that Clemens, Lidge, Izzy, Cordero..... everybody, in the late innings.

 

So then you don't need Izzy then? Can the Cubs have him? Cause we're a team that believes the bullpen is there for a reason. Mainly so that you don't burn your starters into the ground when you have a huge lead on the division, and when they've only gone over 200 innings once. But I guess the playoffs aren't important right?

 

 

BINGO!! That's been the crux of my argument for 35+ pages. No, the Cards DON'T need Izzy when Carpenter pitches. Which makes Izzy that much "fresher" for the other 4 starters. And it's not because Carpenter is being "burned into the ground". He's throwing fewer pitches than Clemens, actually. That's because he's so efficient.

 

Which statistic would that fall under?

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Carpenter has a .448 OPS-against in innings 7 thru 9. The Cards have a good bullpen, but they don't have anybody THAT good.

 

A little off topic, but where did you find this stat? I'm curious what some of the Cubs pitchers are like in the late innings. And I don't know where to look for innings breakdowns like that.

Edited September 7, 2005 by BleedCubbieBlue81

[Transmogrified Tiger]

K-town, you want a better argument, try posting only this - "BABIP (and the Astros defense looks about the same as the Cards)."

 

I'm too stupid to know what you mean. :?

 

That's not really the argument though. We aren't trying to see which guys will repeat their performance. Matt Murton's BABIP was super high at AA, but that doesn't mean he didn't perform better than a guy with lesser numbers who was more likely to repeat them.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Amy, go out and throw 98 pitches. Then tell me how much your fastball is cracking. It may not be exhausted, but it's tired. Compare that to a lights out closer that is fresh, and tell me which one is more likely to be effective.

 

Carpenter is more effective that Clemens, Lidge, Izzy, Cordero..... everybody, in the late innings.

 

So then you don't need Izzy then? Can the Cubs have him? Cause we're a team that believes the bullpen is there for a reason. Mainly so that you don't burn your starters into the ground when you have a huge lead on the division, and when they've only gone over 200 innings once. But I guess the playoffs aren't important right?

 

 

BINGO!! That's been the crux of my argument for 35+ pages. No, the Cards DON'T need Izzy when Carpenter pitches. Which makes Izzy that much "fresher" for the other 4 starters. And it's not because Carpenter is being "burned into the ground". He's throwing fewer pitches than Clemens, actually. That's because he's so efficient.

 

Which statistic would that fall under?

 

His IP would be factored into his VORP, so it's included there.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Carpenter has a .448 OPS-against in innings 7 thru 9. The Cards have a good bullpen, but they don't have anybody THAT good.

 

A little off topic, but where did you find this stat? I'm curious what some of the Cubs pitchers are like in the late innings. And I don't know where to look for innings breakdowns like that.

 

ESPN.com's splits pages, make sure to click the "more splits" link.

[K-Town]

Amy, go out and throw 98 pitches. Then tell me how much your fastball is cracking. It may not be exhausted, but it's tired. Compare that to a lights out closer that is fresh, and tell me which one is more likely to be effective.

 

Carpenter is more effective that Clemens, Lidge, Izzy, Cordero..... everybody, in the late innings.

 

And Clemens is more effective than Carpenter in innings 1-6.

 

Yup. I never really disputed that.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

BINGO!! That's been the crux of my argument for 35+ pages. No, the Cards DON'T need Izzy when Carpenter pitches. Which makes Izzy that much "fresher" for the other 4 starters. And it's not because Carpenter is being "burned into the ground". He's throwing fewer pitches than Clemens, actually. That's because he's so efficient.

 

Which statistic would that fall under?

 

Once again, you lie to make the statistics favor you. CARPENTER HAS THROWN MORE PITCHES THAN CLEMENS. Maybe the Astros are being smarter about this...

[IlliniAmy]

Amy, go out and throw 98 pitches. Then tell me how much your fastball is cracking. It may not be exhausted, but it's tired. Compare that to a lights out closer that is fresh, and tell me which one is more likely to be effective.

 

Sort of like how Carp finished the game vs the Astro's Saturday?

 

(which by the way, was the most pitches he'd thrown in a game all year, I do believe -- should be the best example for your argument)

 

How tired does this sound?

 

The Astros made Carpenter mad, you see.

 

And that just set up a perfect response.

 

Carpenter struck out Everett. He retired Ausmus on a weak grounder to short. And on his 120th and final pitch of this landmark game, Carpenter punched out pinch-hitter Orlando Palmeiro on a called third strike to seal the 4-2 victory.

 

Orlando Palmeiro, by the way is batting .302 so far this year (or at least, he was as of Saturday).

[K-Town]

Amy, go out and throw 98 pitches. Then tell me how much your fastball is cracking. It may not be exhausted, but it's tired. Compare that to a lights out closer that is fresh, and tell me which one is more likely to be effective.

 

Carpenter is more effective that Clemens, Lidge, Izzy, Cordero..... everybody, in the late innings.

 

So then you don't need Izzy then? Can the Cubs have him? Cause we're a team that believes the bullpen is there for a reason. Mainly so that you don't burn your starters into the ground when you have a huge lead on the division, and when they've only gone over 200 innings once. But I guess the playoffs aren't important right?

 

 

BINGO!! That's been the crux of my argument for 35+ pages. No, the Cards DON'T need Izzy when Carpenter pitches. Which makes Izzy that much "fresher" for the other 4 starters. And it's not because Carpenter is being "burned into the ground". He's throwing fewer pitches than Clemens, actually. That's because he's so efficient.

 

Which statistic would that fall under?

 

His IP would be factored into his VORP, so it's included there.

 

 

VORP doesn't break down specific situations, such as the one mentioned.

 

I also doubt if VORP will tell us how much better Izzy (or another reliever) will pitch because he got that day off.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

ESPN.com's splits pages, make sure to click the "more splits" link.

 

Thanks man.

[JGalt73]

K-town, you want a better argument, try posting only this - "BABIP (and the Astros defense looks about the same as the Cards)."

 

I'm too stupid to know what you mean. :?

 

That's not really the argument though. We aren't trying to see which guys will repeat their performance. Matt Murton's BABIP was super high at AA, but that doesn't mean he didn't perform better than a guy with lesser numbers who was more likely to repeat them.

 

Fair enough. But I figured K-town could use the "but Roger's lucky card" a little here!

 

And BTW, does anyone know Clemens career BABIP - he's been otherworldly with that this year.

 

Leaders w/100 IP:

1. Roger Clemens .234

2. Pedro Martinez .242

3. Barry Zito .244

4. Rich Harden .255

5. Carlos Zambrano .258

6. Joe Blanton .259

7. Jose Contreras .261

8. Tony Armas Jr. .263

9. Roy Halladay .264

10. Bruce Chen .265

11. Tim Wakefield .266

12. Horacio Ramirez .267

13. Chris Carpenter .268

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Amy, go out and throw 98 pitches. Then tell me how much your fastball is cracking. It may not be exhausted, but it's tired. Compare that to a lights out closer that is fresh, and tell me which one is more likely to be effective.

 

Carpenter is more effective that Clemens, Lidge, Izzy, Cordero..... everybody, in the late innings.

 

So then you don't need Izzy then? Can the Cubs have him? Cause we're a team that believes the bullpen is there for a reason. Mainly so that you don't burn your starters into the ground when you have a huge lead on the division, and when they've only gone over 200 innings once. But I guess the playoffs aren't important right?

 

 

BINGO!! That's been the crux of my argument for 35+ pages. No, the Cards DON'T need Izzy when Carpenter pitches. Which makes Izzy that much "fresher" for the other 4 starters. And it's not because Carpenter is being "burned into the ground". He's throwing fewer pitches than Clemens, actually. That's because he's so efficient.

 

Which statistic would that fall under?

 

His IP would be factored into his VORP, so it's included there.

 

 

VORP doesn't break down specific situations, such as the one mentioned.

 

I also doubt if VORP will tell us how much better Izzy (or another reliever) will pitch because he got that day off.

 

I'd still rather go with specific metircs that measure what is than what if's when determining the better pitcher.

[K-Town]

BINGO!! That's been the crux of my argument for 35+ pages. No, the Cards DON'T need Izzy when Carpenter pitches. Which makes Izzy that much "fresher" for the other 4 starters. And it's not because Carpenter is being "burned into the ground". He's throwing fewer pitches than Clemens, actually. That's because he's so efficient.

 

Which statistic would that fall under?

 

Once again, you lie to make the statistics favor you. CARPENTER HAS THROWN MORE PITCHES THAN CLEMENS. Maybe the Astros are being smarter about this...

 

My understanding is that "number of pitches" isn't as important as the time frame that the pitches are thrown in, or how much the pitcher is "laboring" when he's throwing the pitches. Carpenter CLEARLY isn't laboring in the late innings (as evident by his OPS against), so it's pretty much a non-factor.

 

Marquis would be an example of a guy who is killing himself, despite the fact that he's thrown fewer pitches than Carpenter.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

My understanding is that "number of pitches" isn't as important as the time frame that the pitches are thrown in, or how much the pitcher is "laboring" when he's throwing the pitches. Carpenter CLEARLY isn't laboring in the late innings (as evident by his OPS against), so it's pretty much a non-factor.

 

Marquis would be an example of a guy who is killing himself, despite the fact that he's thrown fewer pitches than Carpenter.

 

But you made it a huge factor when you assumed Clemens was throwing more pitches. Now that you found out he's not and that Clemens is throwing less, it's "pretty much a non-factor?" Don't bring it up if it's a non-factor.

 

But it's okay, because Carp is "so efficient".

[K-Town]

Amy, go out and throw 98 pitches. Then tell me how much your fastball is cracking. It may not be exhausted, but it's tired. Compare that to a lights out closer that is fresh, and tell me which one is more likely to be effective.

 

Carpenter is more effective that Clemens, Lidge, Izzy, Cordero..... everybody, in the late innings.

 

So then you don't need Izzy then? Can the Cubs have him? Cause we're a team that believes the bullpen is there for a reason. Mainly so that you don't burn your starters into the ground when you have a huge lead on the division, and when they've only gone over 200 innings once. But I guess the playoffs aren't important right?

 

 

BINGO!! That's been the crux of my argument for 35+ pages. No, the Cards DON'T need Izzy when Carpenter pitches. Which makes Izzy that much "fresher" for the other 4 starters. And it's not because Carpenter is being "burned into the ground". He's throwing fewer pitches than Clemens, actually. That's because he's so efficient.

 

Which statistic would that fall under?

 

His IP would be factored into his VORP, so it's included there.

 

 

VORP doesn't break down specific situations, such as the one mentioned.

 

I also doubt if VORP will tell us how much better Izzy (or another reliever) will pitch because he got that day off.

 

I'd still rather go with specific metircs that measure what is than what if's when determining the better pitcher.

 

Fair enough. And I won't dispute that the metrics that you're using will tell us MOST of the story. I'm just not sure that they tell us everything, especially when a team is 13-15 when Clemens starts, as opposed to 22-4 when Carpenter starts. I don't value "wins" much, but that's just too much of a difference to ignore. Unfortunately, Clemens' "value" decreases if his team is unable to win, with or without him. Of course, that's just my opinion, and I'm sure we've been down that road more than once.

 

Like I said, your metrics tell "most" of the story.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Fair enough. And I won't dispute that the metrics that you're using will tell us MOST of the story. I'm just not sure that they tell us everything, especially when a team is 13-15 when Clemens starts, as opposed to 22-4 when Carpenter starts. I don't value "wins" much, but that's just too much of a difference to ignore. Unfortunately, Clemens' "value" decreases if his team is unable to win, with or without him. Of course, that's just my opinion, and I'm sure we've been down that road more than once.

 

Like I said, your metrics tell "most" of the story.

 

Yep, Clemens can really control how many runs his crappy offense gives him. The metrics tell enough to let us know that Clemens is having the better year.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

[Fair enough. And I won't dispute that the metrics that you're using will tell us MOST of the story. I'm just not sure that they tell us everything, especially when a team is 13-15 when Clemens starts, as opposed to 22-4 when Carpenter starts. I don't value "wins" much, but that's just too much of a difference to ignore. Unfortunately, Clemens' "value" decreases if his team is unable to win, with or without him. Of course, that's just my opinion, and I'm sure we've been down that road more than once.

 

Like I said, your metrics tell "most" of the story.

 

I just don't fault a pitcher because his team is shut-out or only scores one run on a day he pitches. A pitcher's job in the "win" equation is to give up as few runs as he can over as many innings as he can. He has little, since he bats I won't say no, control over how many runs his team scores.

 

Clemens value decreases none if his team is unable to win; his team just failed to take advantage of the value he brings.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Clemens value decreases none if his team is unable to win; his team just failed to take advantage of the value he brings.

 

Wow. Well said.