A couple inquires by the Cubs....

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Why is it when considering trades people sometimes consider only current season, while other times consider career numbers (usually to sway an opinion)?

 

Pierre is not a bad lead-off guy just because he had a slow 1st half. He has demonstrated an excellent OBP for several years (with 2002 being an off-year) and is widely regarded as one of the finest small-ball players in the league.

 

Likewise kearns is not a bad future investment for the same reason CP is not for other teams.

 

I'd be ecstatic to have Pierre or Kearns. Keeps the team young and talented.

 

Good question. I was wondering the same thing. Where it comes to players like Nefi, everyone assumes (rightly) that they will return to their career norms. However, with Pierre, everyone points to his low OBP this year. I think it's accurate to assume he's be more likely to end this season acheiving his career average of .356 rather than continuing at .318.

 

In terms of the Caugh Stealing, I have a question. I heard that the cutoff from where stealing hurts or helps is 70%. Pierre, for his career, is at 74%, which would be slightly above that cutoff.

 

Pierre

 

2000: 7/13 53.8%

2001: 46/63 73.0%

2002: 47/59 79.6%

2003: 65/85 76.8%

2004: 45/69 65.2%

2005: 28/35 80.0%

 

Is that right? 70% is the cutoff?

 

I'm pretty sure. If it's not, it may be a couple ticks higher, I vaguely remember hearing 72 or 73 a long time ago, but BK was saying 70 the other day, and I'll definitely take his word for it.

[USSoccer]

FYI, Pierre's career SB% is 64%. I possted this in the other Pierre thread.

[hawkeyecub]

FYI, Pierre's career SB% is 64%. I possted this in the other Pierre thread.

 

ESPN.com says he has 238 career stolen bases and has been caught 86 times. That's 74%.

[Chocolate Milk]

FYI, Pierre's career SB% is 64%. I possted this in the other Pierre thread.

 

No it isn't. He has 324 career stolen base attempts and 86 CS. Thats 74%.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6550

 

Edit: Too slow! :evil:

Edited July 20, 2005 by Chocolate Milk

[USSoccer]

FYI, Pierre's career SB% is 64%. I possted this in the other Pierre thread.

 

No it isn't. He has 324 career stolen base attempts and 86 CS. Thats 74%.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6550

 

I stand corrected. My math has always sucked...I apologize.

 

I still don't want Pierre, though :P

[Chocolate Milk]

FYI, Pierre's career SB% is 64%. I possted this in the other Pierre thread.

 

No it isn't. He has 324 career stolen base attempts and 86 CS. Thats 74%.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6550

 

I stand corrected. My math has always sucked...I apologize.

 

I still don't want Pierre, though :P

 

You don't have an adding machine right in front of you all day!

[johnnyba99]

If Pierre didn't get nailed in a third of his SB attempts, I might be more interested. Or if he had a decent OBP this year. Or had some power, or a throwing arm.

 

A third? That's a bit of an exaggeration. For his career Pierre is a 74% base stealer and this year he's at 80%.

 

A slight exaggeration. That's still 10% less than a player like Podsednik, and his OBP still stinks this year. At this point, we're better off with what we have now, especially considering what the Marlins would want for him.

 

I'm not as impressed with Jerry Hairston as some here are. I have yet to see the guy hit a ball the other way (wish I could see his hit chart somewhere), I don't see all the games, but the ones I have he seems pull happy to me. His career OBP is .335 with a SB % of 68%. Pierre is younger than Hairston as well. I'm not saying Pierre is the answer, but he's better than Jerry Hairston in my opinion.

[XZero771679666304]

Regardless, Pierre doesn't represent enough of an upgrade to justify paying what will no doubt be an inflated price. Pierre this year has been no better than Hairston, and we have bigger fish to fry, so to speak.

 

Let the Yanks or someone have him.

[johnnyba99]

Regardless, Pierre doesn't represent enough of an upgrade to justify paying what will no doubt be an inflated price. Pierre this year has been no better than Hairston, and we have bigger fish to fry, so to speak.

 

Let the Yanks or someone have him.

 

I do agree with that, meant to put that in my post. If he came cheap then I'll take him, but we shouldn't give up anything valuable. If they'd take Hairston straight up I'm in.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If Pierre didn't get nailed in a third of his SB attempts, I might be more interested. Or if he had a decent OBP this year. Or had some power, or a throwing arm.

 

A third? That's a bit of an exaggeration. For his career Pierre is a 74% base stealer and this year he's at 80%.

 

A slight exaggeration. That's still 10% less than a player like Podsednik, and his OBP still stinks this year. At this point, we're better off with what we have now, especially considering what the Marlins would want for him.

 

I'm not as impressed with Jerry Hairston as some here are. I have yet to see the guy hit a ball the other way (wish I could see his hit chart somewhere), I don't see all the games, but the ones I have he seems pull happy to me. His career OBP is .335 with a SB % of 68%. Pierre is younger than Hairston as well. I'm not saying Pierre is the answer, but he's better than Jerry Hairston in my opinion.

 

Hit Chart

 

I too am not a huge fan of Hairston. However, I don't like him for the same reasons that Pierre doesn't appeal to me. Both are good OBP guys who don't hit for many extra bases. I'd rather not acquire an improved version of Hairston, since he's not exactly the type of player I want in the lineup.

[Chocolate Milk]

Regardless, Pierre doesn't represent enough of an upgrade to justify paying what will no doubt be an inflated price. Pierre this year has been no better than Hairston, and we have bigger fish to fry, so to speak.

 

Let the Yanks or someone have him.

 

I do agree with that, meant to put that in my post. If he came cheap then I'll take him, but we shouldn't give up anything valuable. If they'd take Hairston straight up I'm in.

 

Yes.

[TheDude]

Regardless, Pierre doesn't represent enough of an upgrade to justify paying what will no doubt be an inflated price. Pierre this year has been no better than Hairston, and we have bigger fish to fry, so to speak.

 

Let the Yanks or someone have him.

I completely disagree. The Cubs greatest need is for a reliable lead-off hitter with outstanding small-ball skills. The Cubs do not need anymore power - they need people on base in front of that power.

 

Pierre is a much better option in the outfield than Hairston IMO. Hairston should return to to splitting 2B duties with Walker in a lefty/righty split, or play the role of super-sub ousting Macias off the bench as a primary option.

[Chocolate Milk]

Regardless, Pierre doesn't represent enough of an upgrade to justify paying what will no doubt be an inflated price. Pierre this year has been no better than Hairston, and we have bigger fish to fry, so to speak.

 

Let the Yanks or someone have him.

I completely disagree. The Cubs greatest need is for a reliable lead-off hitter with outstanding small-ball skills. The Cubs do not need anymore power - they need people on base in front of that power.

 

Pierre is a much better option in the outfield than Hairston IMO. Hairston should return to to splitting 2B duties with Walker in a lefty/righty split, or play the role of super-sub ousting Macias off the bench as a primary option.

 

I don't think Walker should ever leave the lineup again.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Regardless, Pierre doesn't represent enough of an upgrade to justify paying what will no doubt be an inflated price. Pierre this year has been no better than Hairston, and we have bigger fish to fry, so to speak.

 

Let the Yanks or someone have him.

I completely disagree. The Cubs greatest need is for a reliable lead-off hitter with outstanding small-ball skills. The Cubs do not need anymore power - they need people on base in front of that power.

 

Pierre is a much better option in the outfield than Hairston IMO. Hairston should return to to splitting 2B duties with Walker in a lefty/righty split, or play the role of super-sub ousting Macias off the bench as a primary option.

 

Todd Walker is the best leadoff option on the team, he's a better leadoff hitter than Pierre. What exactly are small-ball skills?

[johnnyba99]

If Pierre didn't get nailed in a third of his SB attempts, I might be more interested. Or if he had a decent OBP this year. Or had some power, or a throwing arm.

 

A third? That's a bit of an exaggeration. For his career Pierre is a 74% base stealer and this year he's at 80%.

 

A slight exaggeration. That's still 10% less than a player like Podsednik, and his OBP still stinks this year. At this point, we're better off with what we have now, especially considering what the Marlins would want for him.

 

I'm not as impressed with Jerry Hairston as some here are. I have yet to see the guy hit a ball the other way (wish I could see his hit chart somewhere), I don't see all the games, but the ones I have he seems pull happy to me. His career OBP is .335 with a SB % of 68%. Pierre is younger than Hairston as well. I'm not saying Pierre is the answer, but he's better than Jerry Hairston in my opinion.

 

Hit Chart

 

I too am not a huge fan of Hairston. However, I don't like him for the same reasons that Pierre doesn't appeal to me. Both are good OBP guys who don't hit for many extra bases. I'd rather not acquire an improved version of Hairston, since he's not exactly the type of player I want in the lineup.

 

Thanks for the hit chart. That's cool. More of an even spray than I thought.

[TheDude]

Todd Walker is the best leadoff option on the team, he's a better leadoff hitter than Pierre.

Than why hasn't Walker been a leadoff hitter for his career? And why has Pierre been a leadoff hitter for his career?

What exactly are small-ball skills?

Is this a joke? Sorry, but if this is sarcasm, I missed it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Todd Walker is the best leadoff option on the team, he's a better leadoff hitter than Pierre.

Than why hasn't Walker been a leadoff hitter for his career? And why has Pierre been a leadoff hitter for his career?

What exactly are small-ball skills?

Is this a joke? Sorry, but if this is sarcasm, I missed it.

 

Because of an over-emphasis on speed.

 

And my question was serious. I'm guessing bunting, stealing bases, moving runners over, hitting sac flies, is that right? Am I missing anything?

[XZero771679666304]

Todd Walker is the best leadoff option on the team, he's a better leadoff hitter than Pierre.

Than why hasn't Walker been a leadoff hitter for his career? And why has Pierre been a leadoff hitter for his career?

What exactly are small-ball skills?

Is this a joke? Sorry, but if this is sarcasm, I missed it.

 

Todd Walker has been a leadoff hitter in the past, and should have been all of the past two seasons.

 

Pierre has been a leadoff hitter because he is a slap hitter with no power, and no place anywhere else in the lineup. Even so, had Luis Castillo not lost speed due to injury, he may never have been the Marlins leadoff guy either.

 

Pierre has a .319 OBP this year. For those who don't know, that's BAD. Why give up some of our best prospects for a player who is performing worse than what we have? It makes no sense. I'd much rather have a guy with an OBP of 350+ than one with a .319 OBP who can steal bases.

[TheDude]

Pierre has been a leadoff hitter because he is a slap hitter with no power, and no place anywhere else in the lineup. Even so, had Luis Castillo not lost speed due to injury, he may never have been the Marlins leadoff guy either.

I'm not trying to criticize you but this statement shows you do not know Pierre's game all that much. This guy works harder at being a leadoff hitter than any other ballplayer I have ever watched up close over the last 20 years (including Ichiro).

 

Pierre isn't a leadoff hitter simply because there isn't a better spot to play him.

[TheDude]

And my question was serious. I'm guessing bunting, stealing bases, moving runners over, hitting sac flies, is that right? Am I missing anything?

Those are the basics. There are numerous threads and a strategy article from months ago on the subject (which isn't all that popular among the regulars here).

 

It also includes high percentage of balls put in play, the ability to foul off close pitches that aren't the right pitches to hit, and placing the ball in play where you want in the field. Just as some more examples.

[Stomper90]

Why is it when considering trades people sometimes consider only current season, while other times consider career numbers (usually to sway an opinion)?

 

Pierre is not a bad lead-off guy just because he had a slow 1st half. He has demonstrated an excellent OBP for several years (with 2002 being an off-year) and is widely regarded as one of the finest small-ball players in the league.

 

Likewise kearns is not a bad future investment for the same reason CP is not for other teams.

 

I'd be ecstatic to have Pierre or Kearns. Keeps the team young and talented.

 

Exactly Dude--- It's like saying Mike Lowell is worthless because he has had a bad season this year.

[Electron Blue]

Why is it when considering trades people sometimes consider only current season, while other times consider career numbers (usually to sway an opinion)?

 

Pierre is not a bad lead-off guy just because he had a slow 1st half. He has demonstrated an excellent OBP for several years (with 2002 being an off-year) and is widely regarded as one of the finest small-ball players in the league.

 

Likewise kearns is not a bad future investment for the same reason CP is not for other teams.

 

I'd be ecstatic to have Pierre or Kearns. Keeps the team young and talented.

 

Exactly Dude--- It's like saying Mike Lowell is worthless because he has had a bad season this year.

 

Except that no one has said Pierre was on Steroids last year . . .

[imb]

I like Juan Pierre. I like to watch him play, as long as he's playing for another team.

[AAApittsburgh]

Why is it when considering trades people sometimes consider only current season, while other times consider career numbers (usually to sway an opinion)?

 

Pierre is not a bad lead-off guy just because he had a slow 1st half. He has demonstrated an excellent OBP for several years (with 2002 being an off-year) and is widely regarded as one of the finest small-ball players in the league.

 

Likewise kearns is not a bad future investment for the same reason CP is not for other teams.

 

I'd be ecstatic to have Pierre or Kearns. Keeps the team young and talented.

The success Kearns had his rookie year is because of a high BABIP that was obviously unsustainable. Since then he hasn't been very good. I'd take him if the Cubs only had to give up very little for him, but he wouldn't be my first choice. Probably not my second choice either.

 

I'm not sure I'd call Pierre talented. He's talented like David Eckstein, Chone Figgins, Ryan Freel, or Hairston are talented. Pierre doesn't really do anything particularly well except run fast. It has already been said that most of his success is because his BABIP was high at Dolphin's Stadium, and he wouldn't have that kind of success at Wrigley because of the high grass. Even in his best year (last year) he was no more patient at the plate than Patterson. He only saw about 3.5 pitchers/PA, and walked just as many times as Patterson. The team would be better off with a slugging LF.

[ZZ Thorn]

My understanding was that an 80% success rate stealing was the mark at which it becomes 'good,' i.e. overall statistically beneficial to the team

 

So even if Pierre isn't at 80%, he's close enough. I'd trade CP for Pierre in a heartbeat that's for sure.

 

The majority on this board thought Carlos Lee for Podsednik was a huge steal by the Brewers when it went down - but not me, and certainly not the Sox. So while I'm surprised at the dislike of Pierre here, it's not the first time I've thought a speedster was undervalued.

 

He'd be great in our lineup. Imagine him leading off and Pie hitting second for oh, 10 years. =P~