Bruce Levine Thinks NL Wild Card May Turn on Dunn Deal

[HoopsCubs]

Bruce Levine was on Mike and Mike this morning on ESPN Radio (8:30 AM CDT). He thinks there are 4 NL teams vying to convince the Reds to trade Adam Dunn - he mentioned each team can provide the pitching and prospects the Reds need. He mentioned 2 of the teams are the Astros and CUBS. The other 2 teams were not mentioned, but I suspect are the Dodgers and Braves. In Bruce's mind, the team that gets Dunn will be the NL wild card winner when all is said and done.

 

Just one other point Bruce mentioned for the White Sox fans here: he thinks the Sox will aggressively pursue Joe Randa to be their 3B for the stretch. Getting Randa and another starter (AJ Burnett, Ted Lilly, Kip Wells, etc... will cement the division title.

 

 

Enjoy!

Hoops

[LoneStarCubFan]

The only flaw in Levine's thinking is that Atlanta isn't going to be the wildcard team. The Braves are going to win the East and Washington isn't going to make the playoffs.

 

If the Cubs don't get Dunn, and he does get traded, I'd like to see him go to Atlanta. If he goes to Houston we can start counting down the days til the Bears open camp.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I don't think the Braves are the other team. I heard Schurholtz on XM and he said the Braves cannot take on any salary. He didn't deny wanting to make a move, but he said if he did, it would be salary neutral. I don't see how the Braves could make a deal for Dunn that would be salary neutral.

[JeffH]

Aren't the Cardinals the fourth team?

[JC]

Of course, Bruce Levine has a track record like a one legged horse.

[WindyCity]

If he goes to Houston we can start counting down the days til the Bears open camp.

 

Aren't the Cardinals the fourth team?

 

If Dunn is traded within the division and it not to the Cubs, Hendry better skip the convention next January.

[E.J.]

If he goes to Houston we can start counting down the days til the Bears open camp.

 

Aren't the Cardinals the fourth team?

 

If Dunn is traded within the division and it not to the Cubs, Hendry better skip the convention next January.

 

If the Cardinals or Astros get Dunn I'm not watching another Cubs' game this year.

[HoopsCubs]

If he goes to Houston we can start counting down the days til the Bears open camp.

 

Aren't the Cardinals the fourth team?

 

If Dunn is traded within the division and it not to the Cubs, Hendry better skip the convention next January.

 

If the Cardinals or Astros get Dunn I'm not watching another Cubs' game this year.

 

Personally, I think it will be LA. They have lots of money and an excellent farm system, especially their AA team. If all the deals are equal, why not trade outside the division?

[JC]

The Cards look to have better ML ready pitching. Reyes has a 3.32 ERA and a boatload of Ks. Wainright has a 6-6 record with an ERA in the mid 3s. Interestingly, the Cards also have Kevin Jarvis at AAA putting up a pretty good ERA (3.00).

 

:x

[E.J.]

If he goes to Houston we can start counting down the days til the Bears open camp.

 

Aren't the Cardinals the fourth team?

 

If Dunn is traded within the division and it not to the Cubs, Hendry better skip the convention next January.

 

If the Cardinals or Astros get Dunn I'm not watching another Cubs' game this year.

 

Personally, I think it will be LA. They have lots of money and an excellent farm system, especially their AA team. If all the deals are equal, why not trade outside the division?

 

And LA is probably the best-case-scenario for us. I wouldn't mind it at all if Dunn went to LA. Just as long as he's out of the division if he's not traded to us.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If he goes to Houston we can start counting down the days til the Bears open camp.

 

Aren't the Cardinals the fourth team?

 

If Dunn is traded within the division and it not to the Cubs, Hendry better skip the convention next January.

 

If the Cardinals or Astros get Dunn I'm not watching another Cubs' game this year.

 

The Astros may be willing to part with more prospects. Drayton McClain has a thing about wanting local boys to play for his team. While everyone comments on, including me, the financial straits of the Astros, McClain is a billionaire with plenty of money. He just usually doesn't want to spend it. He has shown in the past a prediliction of overpaying to keep a "hometown" talent. It wouldn't surprise me to see him send a boatload of talent to the Reds if he thinks he can land the hometown boy Dunn.

 

I could see the Astros willing to send Burke, Qualls, and Giminez to get him. They might even include Jason Lane or Jared Gothreaux. If that's the case, the Cubs would have trouble matching the offer. In the Astros favor, they could overpay with prospects because they stand a greater chance of Dunn staying with them at a hometown discount once his arbitration years are over. As much as I want Dunn, I think making statements like yours are a little over the top and quite ridiculous.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If he goes to Houston we can start counting down the days til the Bears open camp.

 

Aren't the Cardinals the fourth team?

 

If Dunn is traded within the division and it not to the Cubs, Hendry better skip the convention next January.

 

If the Cardinals or Astros get Dunn I'm not watching another Cubs' game this year.

 

The Astros may be willing to part with more prospects. Drayton McClain has a thing about wanting local boys to play for his team. While everyone comments on, including me, the financial straits of the Astros, McClain is a billionaire with plenty of money. He just usually doesn't want to spend it. He has shown in the past a prediliction of overpaying to keep a "hometown" talent. It wouldn't surprise me to see him send a boatload of talent to the Reds if he thinks he can land the hometown boy Dunn.

 

I could see the Astros willing to send Burke, Qualls, and Giminez to get him. They might even include Jason Lane or Jared Gothreaux. If that's the case, the Cubs would have trouble matching the offer. In the Astros favor, they could overpay with prospects because they stand a greater chance of Dunn staying with them at a hometown discount once his arbitration years are over. As much as I want Dunn, I think making statements like yours are a little over the top and quite ridiculous.

 

Burke is a quality prospect, but there's nothing very special about Qualls or Gimnez. Replace Burke with a pitching prospect, and Qualls and Gimenez are basically equivalent to Wellemeyer and Soto. I doubt that Cincy will want the OF Lane, and we can certainly do better than Gothreaux. A Burke, Qualls, Gimenez, Gothreaux package is very similar to a Mitre, Welly, Soto, Nolasco/Pinto deal. Mitre isn't as good as Burke, but Nolasco/Pinto are better than Gothreaux, and Mitre fits the major league team better right away.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If he goes to Houston we can start counting down the days til the Bears open camp.

 

Aren't the Cardinals the fourth team?

 

If Dunn is traded within the division and it not to the Cubs, Hendry better skip the convention next January.

 

If the Cardinals or Astros get Dunn I'm not watching another Cubs' game this year.

 

The Astros may be willing to part with more prospects. Drayton McClain has a thing about wanting local boys to play for his team. While everyone comments on, including me, the financial straits of the Astros, McClain is a billionaire with plenty of money. He just usually doesn't want to spend it. He has shown in the past a prediliction of overpaying to keep a "hometown" talent. It wouldn't surprise me to see him send a boatload of talent to the Reds if he thinks he can land the hometown boy Dunn.

 

I could see the Astros willing to send Burke, Qualls, and Giminez to get him. They might even include Jason Lane or Jared Gothreaux. If that's the case, the Cubs would have trouble matching the offer. In the Astros favor, they could overpay with prospects because they stand a greater chance of Dunn staying with them at a hometown discount once his arbitration years are over. As much as I want Dunn, I think making statements like yours are a little over the top and quite ridiculous.

 

Burke is a quality prospect, but there's nothing very special about Qualls or Gimnez. Replace Burke with a pitching prospect, and Qualls and Gimenez are basically equivalent to Wellemeyer and Soto. I doubt that Cincy will want the OF Lane, and we can certainly do better than Gothreaux. A Burke, Qualls, Gimenez, Gothreaux package is very similar to a Mitre, Welly, Soto, Nolasco/Pinto deal. Mitre isn't as good as Burke, but Nolasco/Pinto are better than Gothreaux, and Mitre fits the major league team better right away.

 

Some of your analysis is right on point, but I think Houston may be willing to part with more. I definitely think Burke will be going in any deal for Dunn and he's highly valued. If Lane is included, it's a decent return if there are other lower prospects like Giminez and Qualls. While on face, one might ask why the Reds would want Lane, but it would give them freedom to then deal Kearns as well. Lane has begun to produce lately and is a major-league ready outfielder with power. I think Hendry would have trouble ponying up the players to match a deal that includes both Lane and Burke along with two other players.

[ThePenguin11]

I don't think the Braves are the other team. I heard Schurholtz on XM and he said the Braves cannot take on any salary. He didn't deny wanting to make a move, but he said if he did, it would be salary neutral. I don't see how the Braves could make a deal for Dunn that would be salary neutral.

 

That's just something that GM's say when they're trying to stay under the radar. The Cardinals were supposedly out of money the last few years and have brought in some major stars after saying the same thing. Plus it protects the GM from looking desperate. It's an approach Jim Hendry could use if we weren't so freaking desparate to get back into the WC race.

[fearthecubs]

Ok so let me get this straight, Burke is a prospect even though he hasn't done crap at the major league level and is 25 ---- yet corey is always ragged on, a player who has had continual major league success at a time, and is also 25?

 

You'll stop watching Cub games if Dunn is traded in division? Good riddance, then.

 

I still dont understand why you all want Dunn anyway, he's going to play LF, so say goodbye to your boy Murton.

 

A BETTER idea - is to trade for Burnett, sign him, and then turn around and deal Wood (dont give me the no-trade crap, theres places he'd go, namely texas) or Zambrano for a bat who can get on base and not K. Man, I cant beleive some of you want to add the bigget K'er in the ENTIRE MAJOR LEAGUES but in EVERY OTHER POST on this message board we gripe about strikeouts and OBP. How does a walk or a strike out drive in runs? He's the white Sosa.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Ok so let me get this straight, Burke is a prospect even though he hasn't done crap at the major league level and is 25 ---- yet corey is always ragged on, a player who has had continual major league success at a time, and is also 25?

 

You'll stop watching Cub games if Dunn is traded in division? Good riddance, then.

 

I still dont understand why you all want Dunn anyway, he's going to play LF, so say goodbye to your boy Murton.

 

A BETTER idea - is to trade for Burnett, sign him, and then turn around and deal Wood (dont give me the no-trade crap, theres places he'd go, namely texas) or Zambrano for a bat who can get on base and not K. Man, I cant beleive some of you want to add the bigget K'er in the ENTIRE MAJOR LEAGUES but in EVERY OTHER POST on this message board we gripe about strikeouts and OBP. How does a walk or a strike out drive in runs? He's the white Sosa.

 

I fail to see how Burnett is better than Wood. Burnett's best season is about as good as Wood's worst in ERA+. Also, I think you're mischaracterizing the argument about OBP and K's. I think you'll find that most of the people that clamor for Dunn are the ones that are not complaining about K's. In fact, on the whole I don't see a lot of people lamenting the fact that we K too much.

[fearthecubs]

You missed my point. It's not that Burnett is better than Wood. It's that we're better with Burnett and a lead-off/high OBP guy than Wood and Dunn.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

You missed my point. It's not that Burnett is better than Wood. It's that we're better with Burnett and a lead-off/high OBP guy than Wood and Dunn.

 

What lead-off/high OBP guy were you thinking of? There aren't a lot of them, and many aren't as valuable because of poor SB rates or very low power numbers. I'd venture that Dunn will help out our offense more than any high OBP lead off guy.

[AAApittsburgh]

Ok so let me get this straight, Burke is a prospect even though he hasn't done crap at the major league level and is 25 ---- yet corey is always ragged on, a player who has had continual major league success at a time, and is also 25?

 

You'll stop watching Cub games if Dunn is traded in division? Good riddance, then.

 

I still dont understand why you all want Dunn anyway, he's going to play LF, so say goodbye to your boy Murton.

 

A BETTER idea - is to trade for Burnett, sign him, and then turn around and deal Wood (dont give me the no-trade crap, theres places he'd go, namely texas) or Zambrano for a bat who can get on base and not K. Man, I cant beleive some of you want to add the bigget K'er in the ENTIRE MAJOR LEAGUES but in EVERY OTHER POST on this message board we gripe about strikeouts and OBP. How does a walk or a strike out drive in runs? He's the white Sosa.

Wow, where do I begin? Burke has 187 ML ABs. I think it's a bit too early to say that he hasn't done crap. Biggio is playing his position right now. Corey had over 2000 ABs to prove himself. How can anyone even compare the two? And nobody here is griping about Dunn's Ks when the guy walks 100 times a year and hits 40 HRs.

 

Also, everyone talks about trading Wood to Texas, but why does anyone even think he'd want to go to Texas? I know he's from there, but who would want to pitch for the Rangers in that park? Just about every Rangers hitter has a pretty big gap in their home/road splits. Wood has had more success than Burnett has anyway, so it seems like a pointless trade to me since Wood's value is so low.

[fearthecubs]

You missed my point. It's not that Burnett is better than Wood. It's that we're better with Burnett and a lead-off/high OBP guy than Wood and Dunn.

 

What lead-off/high OBP guy were you thinking of? There aren't a lot of them, and many aren't as valuable because of poor SB rates or very low power numbers. I'd venture that Dunn will help out our offense more than any high OBP lead off guy.

 

Not thinking of anyone in particular, but I'd make the argument that Murton would actually be more beneficial to our offense than Dunn.

[fearthecubs]

Wow, where do I begin? Burke has 187 ML ABs. I think it's a bit too early to say that he hasn't done crap. Biggio is playing his position right now. Corey had over 2000 ABs to prove himself. How can anyone even compare the two? And nobody here is griping about Dunn's Ks when the guy walks 100 times a year and hits 40 HRs.

 

Also, everyone talks about trading Wood to Texas, but why does anyone even think he'd want to go to Texas? I know he's from there, but who would want to pitch for the Rangers in that park? Just about every Rangers hitter has a pretty big gap in their home/road splits. Wood has had more success than Burnett has anyway, so it seems like a pointless trade to me since Wood's value is so low.

 

Burke is 25. Corey is 25. Who has had more success? You have prospect fever.

 

We don't need a guy who walks 100 times or hits 40 jacks, we need a guy that can get hit by a pitch, beat out an infield single, steal some bases, get dirty. Wood to Texas wasnt the purpose of my post, the purpose is that Dunn won't help anything and Murton may be more beneficial - plus we wouldn't have to trade anyone.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

You missed my point. It's not that Burnett is better than Wood. It's that we're better with Burnett and a lead-off/high OBP guy than Wood and Dunn.

 

What lead-off/high OBP guy were you thinking of? There aren't a lot of them, and many aren't as valuable because of poor SB rates or very low power numbers. I'd venture that Dunn will help out our offense more than any high OBP lead off guy.

 

Not thinking of anyone in particular, but I'd make the argument that Murton would actually be more beneficial to our offense than Dunn.

 

Even if Murton reproduces his AA numbers(very unlikely given his unsustainable BABIP), he still won't be as productive as Dunn. There's very few players in the league that produce more offensively than Dunn.

[AAApittsburgh]

You missed my point. It's not that Burnett is better than Wood. It's that we're better with Burnett and a lead-off/high OBP guy than Wood and Dunn.

Having Dunn in the lineup would create more runs than any leadoff hitter in baseball. A guy like Podsednik or Pierre is not more valuable than Dunn. Hairtston is doing fine right now anyway. I wouldn't change the top of the order right now.

[fearthecubs]

Even if Murton reproduces his AA numbers(very unlikely given his unsustainable BABIP), he still won't be as productive as Dunn. There's very few players in the league that produce more offensively than Dunn.

 

He doesnt have to repeat his AA numbers and hit 340. But if he can get on base, move runners over, hit to all fields - thats what we really need, and he can do it.

 

Having Dunn in the lineup would create more runs than any leadoff hitter in baseball. A guy like Podsednik or Pierre is not more valuable than Dunn. Hairtston is doing fine right now anyway. I wouldn't change the top of the order right now.

 

I disagree. Someone has to be on base for Dunn to drive in, haven't we gone over this ad-nauseum with Lee? Podsednik or Pierre - I would take them in a heartbeat over Dunn. It's not even close.

[goonys evil twin]

Podsednik or Pierre - I would take them in a heartbeat over Dunn. It's not even close.

 

No way. Neither player is a lock to be a good OBP guy. Pierre sucks this year, while Pods is incredibly inconsistent. I'd say the odds that his OBP falls to last years .313 are nearly as high as staying at his current .369. Dunn blows those guys away. Hairston, Walker, Lee, Dunn and Ramirez provide a solid core of OBP capable players, and would be a fantastic 1-5, much better than having Pierre or Pods at the top and sticking with the non existent LF production.