Dunn to Dodgers?

[rocket]

I wouldn't trade Pie, but I'd trade a lot to get Dunn. He's a player that when surrounded by talent can definitely make a difference.

 

Why not? Dunn is better right now than Pie will ever be. If Dunn was 5 years older I would agree with you, but he is only 25 and has plenty of great seasons ahead of him. I highly doubt the Reds would deal their best player without getting the Cubs best prospect. An opportunity to get a player like Dunn doesn't happen very often, so if Cinci needs Pie to deal Dunn, I think we should give him to them.

 

Partly because I don't think Pie becomes a deal breaker. I expect the Reds to counter with Pie, but I think by offering Patterson and better pitchers the deal still gets Dunn. The Reds need pitching and lots of it. One advantage the Cubs could have in trading for Dunn is to offer 2-3 pitching prospects. I also think swapping Patterson for Pie but then offering Dopirak is a better deal for the Reds. If the Cubs put Pie in the deal, then Patterson is out of it and so is Dopirak.

 

Fair enough. I wouldn't be surprised if Cinci wants both Pie AND Dopirak and then someone like Hill though.

 

I personally would do Pie and Dope and Hill for Dunn. It's a huge price to pay prospect wise, but if you factor in that Dunn is our outfielder for 5 years, it becomes worth it. Dunn isn't that much older than most prospects...

[hawkeyecub]

Like I said when this Dunn talk was hot before, I just don't see him getting traded until next July unless a team really overpays.

[woodprior04]

I wouldn't trade Pie, but I'd trade a lot to get Dunn. He's a player that when surrounded by talent can definitely make a difference.

 

Why not? Dunn is better right now than Pie will ever be. If Dunn was 5 years older I would agree with you, but he is only 25 and has plenty of great seasons ahead of him. I highly doubt the Reds would deal their best player without getting the Cubs best prospect. An opportunity to get a player like Dunn doesn't happen very often, so if Cinci needs Pie to deal Dunn, I think we should give him to them.

 

Partly because I don't think Pie becomes a deal breaker. I expect the Reds to counter with Pie, but I think by offering Patterson and better pitchers the deal still gets Dunn. The Reds need pitching and lots of it. One advantage the Cubs could have in trading for Dunn is to offer 2-3 pitching prospects. I also think swapping Patterson for Pie but then offering Dopirak is a better deal for the Reds. If the Cubs put Pie in the deal, then Patterson is out of it and so is Dopirak.

 

Fair enough. I wouldn't be surprised if Cinci wants both Pie AND Dopirak and then someone like Hill though.

 

I personally would do Pie and Dope and Hill for Dunn. It's a huge price to pay prospect wise, but if you factor in that Dunn is our outfielder for 5 years, it becomes worth it. Dunn isn't that much older than most prospects...

 

I think I would pull the trigger on that deal as well. Dunn, Lee and Aram would probably be the best 3-4-5 in the league.

[dalgreen]

The thing with Dunn that I don't like is his OBP is more representative of not having guys hitting behind him meaning intentional walks vs. having a good eye.

 

If you're going to say that, then you should also mention that if Dunn had say, hypothetically, Aramis Ramirez protecting him, that Dunn would see better pitches to hit...meaning his AVG and SLG would likely increase.

 

Yes. His slugging could as well as his strikeouts. But I don't see his average rising significantly because of the strikeouts.

[ThePenguin11]

The thing with Dunn that I don't like is his OBP is more representative of not having guys hitting behind him meaning intentional walks vs. having a good eye.

 

If you're going to say that, then you should also mention that if Dunn had say, hypothetically, Aramis Ramirez protecting him, that Dunn would see better pitches to hit...meaning his AVG and SLG would likely increase.

 

Yes. His slugging could as well as his strikeouts. But I don't see his average rising significantly because of the strikeouts.

 

I would consider batting Dunn third because of the OBP. and let Lee, Ramirez and Burnitz reap the benefits of his ability to score runs.

[CubinNY]

IMO, it is absolutly foolish to not trade Pie if you can get a guy like Dunn.

 

I cannot believe how much people overvalue prospects. Pie is an AA outfieilder with 1/2 of a great year in pro ball. A lot can happen between now and then (when he makes it to the majors).

 

Depending on who else would be included I would trade Pie for Dunn any day.

Edited July 11, 2005 by CubinNY

[Tim]

Here's the thing, despite the power and patience, Dunn is flawed as a hitter. He's a huge upgrade over what we have out there, but he's not the guy that I trade the farm for. If I'm going to make an offer of Pie + Dope + Hill, I want someone with a complete game like Abreu in return. And yes, I do recognize the age difference. My take is that I see Dunn as a guy that can devour bad pitching, but can also be dominated by good ones.

 

I wish there were a stats service that broke out player's numbers versus quality of pitcher (though that would be hard to define, obviously). I have no idea if my impression is right. In general, I just feel that guys with strikeout rates that high (including Patterson, Sosa in the past, etc.) are more vulnerable to the quality pitchers.

 

 

That said, we often seem to have more trouble as a team against the dregs of the league, so maybe we should go after Dunn. :D

[ThePenguin11]

Here's the thing, despite the power and patience, Dunn is flawed as a hitter. He's a huge upgrade over what we have out there, but he's not the guy that I trade the farm for. If I'm going to make an offer of Pie + Dope + Hill, I want someone with a complete game like Abreu in return. And yes, I do recognize the age difference. My take is that I see Dunn as a guy that can devour bad pitching, but can also be dominated by good ones.

 

I wish there were a stats service that broke out player's numbers versus quality of pitcher (though that would be hard to define, obviously). I have no idea if my impression is right. In general, I just feel that guys with strikeout rates that high (including Patterson, Sosa in the past, etc.) are more vulnerable to the quality pitchers.

 

 

That said, we often seem to have more trouble as a team against the dregs of the league, so maybe we should go after Dunn. :D

 

To get you started:

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/6763/batvspit?year=career&type=Batting

[CubinNY]

Here's the thing, despite the power and patience, Dunn is flawed as a hitter. He's a huge upgrade over what we have out there, but he's not the guy that I trade the farm for. If I'm going to make an offer of Pie + Dope + Hill, I want someone with a complete game like Abreu in return. And yes, I do recognize the age difference. My take is that I see Dunn as a guy that can devour bad pitching, but can also be dominated by good ones.

 

I wish there were a stats service that broke out player's numbers versus quality of pitcher (though that would be hard to define, obviously). I have no idea if my impression is right. In general, I just feel that guys with strikeout rates that high (including Patterson, Sosa in the past, etc.) are more vulnerable to the quality pitchers.

 

 

That said, we often seem to have more trouble as a team against the dregs of the league, so maybe we should go after Dunn. :D

 

That's a good point Tim, and I think an accurate observation as well. High walk/High K guys are mistake hitters, in general.

 

I also would like to clarify my last post. I would trade Pie for Dunn, but I wouldn't offer any other top level prospects in the package.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I honestly see Dunn's OBP going down and SO going up with a small boost in AVE if he came to the Cubs, a la Baker. I also wouldnt want to trade 3-4 of our best prospects for him. we would have to give up a healthy Guzman + to get the guy, and we dont have that. If he had to be traded, and it was between LA and us, i would say 70%chance hses in Dodger Blue, 30% chance hes in Cubbie Blue do to the Dodgers supply of upper shelf pitching prospects.

[rocket]

My take is that I see Dunn as a guy that can devour bad pitching, but can also be dominated by good ones.

 

Doesn't this sentence describe 99% of MLB hitters?

 

And not that this disproves or proves your theory, but a quick glance at that link above shows that Dunn has moderate to amazing success against quality pitchers like Clemens, Wood, Lieber, Prior, and Clement. Though Ben Sheets has absolutely owned him...yikes! Obviously that's not scientific, but I think it shows that it's very possible that Dunn is at least league average against quality pitchers, especially when compared to all the other hitters in baseball.

[minnesotacubsfan]

he also destroys leftys, icld Rusch, Mulder, Merker

 

wow.

 

 

hits Cordero (Wash) pretty well too.

[YearofDaCubs]

Dunn in a lineup is a difference maker. Let's also not forget who the players around him are. You fit Dunn in the middle of Lee and ARam and you will see even better numbers.

[ThePenguin11]

My take is that I see Dunn as a guy that can devour bad pitching, but can also be dominated by good ones.

 

Doesn't this sentence describe 99% of MLB hitters?

 

And not that this disproves or proves your theory, but a quick glance at that link above shows that Dunn has moderate to amazing success against quality pitchers like Clemens, Wood, Lieber, Prior, and Clement. Though Ben Sheets has absolutely owned him...yikes! Obviously that's not scientific, but I think it shows that it's very possible that Dunn is at least league average against quality pitchers, especially when compared to all the other hitters in baseball.

 

That reminds me of the "great fastball hitter" comment I always hear. A guy is great at hitting fastballs because he can't hit anything with break on it. Alex Gonzalez was one of those 'great fastball hitters'. Ill. Swing hard at fastballs - hit them out of the park. Swing and miss at curve/slider/fork = Great fastball hitter.

 

See also: Hernandez, Jose

 

[chicubs]

Here's the thing, despite the power and patience, Dunn is flawed as a hitter. He's a huge upgrade over what we have out there, but he's not the guy that I trade the farm for. If I'm going to make an offer of Pie + Dope + Hill, I want someone with a complete game like Abreu in return. And yes, I do recognize the age difference. My take is that I see Dunn as a guy that can devour bad pitching, but can also be dominated by good ones.

 

Great post Tim!

 

I dont think I would even do Pie for Dunn straight up...wait, er actually maybe. I dont know, maybe. Im just not all into high K, low AVG, but HR guys.

[TheDude]

Here's the thing, despite the power and patience, Dunn is flawed as a hitter. He's a huge upgrade over what we have out there, but he's not the guy that I trade the farm for. If I'm going to make an offer of Pie + Dope + Hill, I want someone with a complete game like Abreu in return. And yes, I do recognize the age difference. My take is that I see Dunn as a guy that can devour bad pitching, but can also be dominated by good ones.

I would agree with your line of thinking if our beloved team was mid-to-low market. Your assessment of whether to trade the farm for Dunn works only with market consideration IMO.

 

But in Chicago, with a 100+ million budget, very few of those farm kids are ever going to break into the bigs and get a full-time job. That is the big market syndrome, and in the last 4 years the Cubs have fallen victim to it when it comes to position players.

 

Therefore, I say the Cubs stick to a regiment of pitching youth dominance and big league hitters, with only the top prospect for a postion-need breaking through (ala CP two years ago).

 

If a top prospect is blocked by a guy the Cubs want locked up for years and years, move him to get Dunn now. My two cents.

[ThePenguin11]

He's lefty, he knocks in runs, he scores a lot of runs, he's a patient hitter. He's proven at the major league level. Let's not go so far as to say he's flawed. Corey Patterson is flawed. Adam Dunn is a gamer.

[TheDude]

Regarding the quality of Dunn's stats, is there someone more stat savvy than I that can find out what percentage of Dunn's strikeouts are looking versus swinging?

 

I'm curious to see how much zone control he has, and whether he expands or not down two strikes, and whether that strikeout looking versus swinging ratio has improved each year he has been in the league.

 

I think looking at that split helps to determine whether or not the guy has plate discipline to draw walks (and corresponding strikeouts on close pitches).

 

I mention this because of Tim's post suggesting maybe Dunn only hits bad pitching. The alternative view to that statement (if the splits show he takes a lot of called 3rd strikes) is that maybe he is a guy who simply usually waits for the pitch he can hit, and hit very, very far.

 

If he is swinging and going down all the time, then maybe Tim's observation holds up.

[NorthsideAvenger]

I would trade Pie for Dunn.

 

 

I wouldn't. Not because I am a BIG fan of Pie. Not because Dunn wouldn't be worth it. But simply because WHO would play CF or even RF if the Cubs traded Pie? I don't want Patterson back (I think one way or another he is gone, anyways). Murton and Dunn are BOTH LF, and as defenders very BLAH at it. And if the Cubs put either one in RF, the OF defense would be horrible. Harvey is still a couple of yrs away. Greenberg is viewed as a 4th OF Dave Roberts type player. And with the FA crop of OF being THIN, I don't see an upgrade. The Cubs would then have to make another trade to bring in a legit CF and/or RF, and I don't know if the price will be worth it.

 

Besides I think Cincy learn from Pittsburgh's mistake, and won't trade Dunn to the Cubs. So all of this talk is moot.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Besides I think Cincy learn from Pittsburgh's mistake, and won't trade Dunn to the Cubs. So all of this talk is moot.

 

A bit off topic, but after seeing how the Reds organization has been going over the past few years, I wouldn't go out on a limb and suggest they learned from anyone or anything. :)

[Cubzfan64]

What worries me the most about Dunn potentially in our lineup (and I don't feel we really have much of a chance of getting him at all imho) is that we're still fairly one dimensional in the free swinging offensive strategy.

 

I do like his higher OBP, and I wouldn't mind having him in the lineup at all, but I want to balance the offense a bit with 1 or 2 contact hitters with some speed. I don't care if that comes at SS, 2B or an outfielder I just think we really need to add a little more dimension to our offense - if for no other reason than to take opposition pitchers out of their rhythm. As it stands now, with a couple exceptions a pitcher can throw the same way to most of our guys and get them to swing at THEIR pitches far too often.

[CubfaninCA]

The Cubs need to find a third team to make a deal w/ Dunn work. Sounds like the Dodgers have more pitching depth to deal. However, it doesn't sound as if Edwin Jackson is nealry as well thought of now, as he's really struggled this season.

 

Anaheim could use Patterson and Rusch and is loaded w/ prospects, so perhaps they can help the Cubs out.

[CubinNY]

I would trade Pie for Dunn.

 

 

I don't want Patterson back (I think one way or another he is gone, anyways)

 

That is pretty pathetic. What if Corey goes down to AAA and learns how to lay off the head high fast ball and develops some plate discipline? You still don't want him?

 

Oh wait, I know, he is too stuborn or too stupid to learn anything.

[TheDude]

I would trade Pie for Dunn.

 

 

I wouldn't. Not because I am a BIG fan of Pie. Not because Dunn wouldn't be worth it. But simply because WHO would play CF or even RF if the Cubs traded Pie? I don't want Patterson back (I think one way or another he is gone, anyways).

Johnny Damon in center, and Randy Winn in right? The team has then has speed and OBP at the top and power 3-5.

 

The FA list may be narrow, but it is out there. Let me dream - I am not usually a dreamer :).

[CubfaninCA]

Don't deal off Pie. Deal off Dope & Guzman.