Cubs Offseason Mega Thread

[Rcal10]

I keep seeing Seiya at 4 years and $23M-$25M. If they could get him for that I wouldn’t hesitate to trade Shaw or Ramirez for a pitcher. (Potentially the next detmers.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Longenhagen posted his thoughts on Taira:

Quote

Taira has pitches that finish in all four quadrants of the zone. He can elevate his fastball, which averaged 95 mph and touched 99 in 2026, to his arm side, and mix in sinkers and changeups below that. To his glove side, he can command a low-90s cutter around the hands of lefty batters, and his slider finishes beneath them. His splitter, the pitch that garnered the most whiff and chase for him in 2026, drops beneath the zone entirely and should be a plus big league pitch. He fields his position well and exudes poise and confidence on the mound. The risk here is that Taira has had just one healthy and productive season as a starter, and now MLB teams targeting him have to decide whether they think he can repeat it. If he can, he’ll be a mid-rotation starter

 

[Geographyhater8888]

23 hours ago, Bertz said:

I'm generally for just getting your work done on the FA market this year instead of burning trade capital but Eovaldi probably wouldn't cost much player wise and I'd be all over him

 

As long as it’s a salary dump. 

[Nolo]

16 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I keep seeing Seiya at 4 years and $23M-$25M. If they could get him for that I wouldn’t hesitate to trade Shaw or Ramirez for a pitcher. (Potentially the next detmers.

I think you get could one of the established starters from mariners like Logan Gilbert for Matt Shaw straight up. 

[Rcal10]

28 minutes ago, Nolo said:

I think you get could one of the established starters from mariners like Logan Gilbert for Matt Shaw straight up. 

If you sign Seiya you have to get a cheap pitcher. They then can still sign a few other higher priced pitchers. I’m thinking more like Hancock, Weathers (Yankees) in this scenerio. I like your ideas but there is a budget. You seem to go over it. If they went Gilbert they would probably have about $45M to spend and still need 2 starting pitchers  and at least 2 more bats. And that is with Ayers, Ramirez and Alcantara on the team. And this is also a minimum of what they would need. I’m looking at having $60M left so they can sign maybe a Rogers and Holmes and still have maybe $15M to $20M to work with. Rotation of Rogers, Holmes, Shaw trade for a young pitcher, Cabrera and then guys like Steele, Brown, Assad, isn’t bad. Maybe sign Civale cheap, and he is in the mix. With the $15M-$20M they should be able to sign a backup catcher for maybe $3M, one bat for $9M-$10M and the last bat for whatever they have left($3M to $8M). 
This could be a good team if the question marks are answered positively. Meaning Cabrera figures it out. There is a quality pitcher in there. And Steele and Brown can give the Cubs something. 

Edited Saturday at 03:20 PM by Rcal10

[Geographyhater8888]

17 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I keep seeing Seiya at 4 years and $23M-$25M. If they could get him for that I wouldn’t hesitate to trade Shaw or Ramirez for a pitcher. (Potentially the next detmers.

Suzukis raw power and ability to hit velocity will be badly missed. The Cubs crushed finesse pitching and losing his bat sucks as a guy who can run into a misorowski fastball and cut a homer through the Wrigley wind.

Edited Saturday at 03:51 PM by Geographyhater8888

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

If you sign Seiya you have to get a cheap pitcher. They then can still sign a few other higher priced pitchers. I’m thinking more like Hancock, Weathers (Yankees) in this scenerio. I like your ideas but there is a budget.

What budget are we assuming Jed is working with? The estimated 265 that was the final 2026 payroll?

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

What budget are we assuming Jed is working with? The estimated 265 that was the final 2026 payroll?

Last time we had a CBA increase, it went up $20m. If we assume the LT line, it'll be close to the final 2026 payroll. 

They could realistically spend over that line. But I'm not entirely sure where the line will be.

[Nolo]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

If you sign Seiya you have to get a cheap pitcher. They then can still sign a few other higher priced pitchers. I’m thinking more like Hancock, Weathers (Yankees) in this scenerio. I like your ideas but there is a budget. You seem to go over it. If they went Gilbert they would probably have about $45M to spend and still need 2 starting pitchers  and at least 2 more bats
 

I hear you but I am not necessarily assuming they’re re-signing Suzuki in that trade scenario. Trading for Gilbert and his $15M salary isn’t a budget killer, going to be cheaper than the top tier starters in free agency, so instead of needing to sign 2–3 SPs in FA maybe we sign 1 big one and a guy like Peterson for $12M a year. I agree there must be give and take. Most of my scenarios I run through the roster payroll projection tool and try to stay around $250-260M payroll or less. I throw a lot of ideas out but I don’t expect them all to happen and am not suggesting they can all happen in one offseason. 

At the end of the day, if it came down to it I’d rather have a dominant/elite pitching staff and some combination of guys like Ward/Taylor/Conforto in a corner OF than a mid tier or even above average staff with Suzuki. I think there are certainly scenarios in the OF that can work out just fine for cheaper. The Cubs still have one of the best offenses in baseball with or without him and Happ, assuming they can still fill the gaps. Defensively, it’s a pretty big blow to lose them depending on who replaces them.

I do love Suzuki and hope we can keep him, I saw five Cubs games last year and he homered in four of them, including the grand slam in Colorado which was as my daughter’s first MLB game. Great memories with him. 

Also, maybe a hot take but I think we should unload Phil Maton if he has any trade value to a team who needs bullpen arms. Even if it’s for prospects or if he’s packaged with someone else with some value. As we discussed Cubs have a decent amount of bullpen arms and that clears $6M for 2027. Not sure what we’d be able to get for him right now though. 

Edited Saturday at 06:21 PM by Nolo

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Nolo said:

I hear you but I am not necessarily assuming they’re re-signing Suzuki in that trade scenario. Trading for Gilbert and his $15M salary isn’t a budget killer, going to be cheaper than the top tier starters in free agency, so instead of needing to sign 2–3 SPs in FA maybe we sign 1 big one and a guy like Peterson for $12M a year. I agree there must be give and take. Most of my scenarios I run through the roster payroll projection tool and try to stay around $250-260M payroll or less. I throw a lot of ideas out but I don’t expect them all to happen and am not suggesting they can all happen in one offseason. 

At the end of the day, if it came down to it I’d rather have a dominant/elite pitching staff and some combination of guys like Ward/Taylor/Conforto in a corner OF than a mid tier or even above average staff with Suzuki. I think there are certainly scenarios in the OF that can work out just fine for cheaper. The Cubs still have one of the best offenses in baseball with or without him and Happ, assuming they can still fill the gaps. Defensively, it’s a pretty big blow to lose them depending on who replaces them.

I do love Suzuki and hope we can keep him, I saw five Cubs games last year and he homered in four of them, including the grand slam in Colorado which was as my daughter’s first MLB game. Great memories with him. 

Also, maybe a hot take but I think we should unload Phil Maton if he has any trade value to a team who needs bullpen arms. Even if it’s for prospects or if he’s packaged with someone else with some value. As we discussed Cubs have a decent amount of bullpen arms and that clears $6M for 2027. Not sure what we’d be able to get for him right now though. 

You did post that trade proposal in response to me saying they can trade Shaw for a pitcher if they signed Seiya. So I took it to mean that was someone you would be interested in. 🤷Without Seiya I am not really interested in unloading Shaw for a guy who cost $20M. And who you have for only 1 year. TBH, I would rather have Eovaldi at $20M for one year while trading virtually nothing for him, then Gilbert and losing Shaw. 

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

What budget are we assuming Jed is working with? The estimated 265 that was the final 2026 payroll?

If they go with the standard Threshold for 2027, I saw it was estimated to be 247 M, Cubs current payroll sits at 168.9, so if it stays at that and Ricketts wants to stay under, they have about 78 M to spend. 

Why im doubtful they'll spend a good chunk of it on Skubal, who looking for 40+, if Ricketts decides not to overspend this offseason.

Cubs are basically in need of 2 corner OFers, 2 SP, backup Catcher, and a high leverage reliever, if all they have is 70+ to spend,  Hoyer will need to stretch that out.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

13 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

If they go with the standard Threshold for 2027, I saw it was estimated to be 247 M, Cubs current payroll sits at 168.9, so if it stays at that and Ricketts wants to stay under, they have about 78 M to spend. 

Why im doubtful they'll spend a good chunk of it on Skubal, who looking for 40+, if Ricketts decides not to overspend this offseason.

Cubs are basically in need of 2 corner OFers, 2 SP, backup Catcher, and a high leverage reliever, if all they have is 70+ to spend,  Hoyer will need to stretch that out.

Sportrac has us at 152 currently 

[chibears55]

6 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Sportrac has us at 152 currently 

🤷

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

15 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

🤷

My bad, I was looking at pre-tax

I still think it's possible they'd go back into the first surcharge, which is supposed to be $264

Edited Sunday at 03:23 AM by Tangled Up in Plaid

[chibears55]

45 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

My bad, I was looking at pre-tax

I still think it's possible they'd go back into the first surcharge, which is supposed to be $264

I hope so, they need to add to the talent they have to move forward,  not waste it with mediocre players to stay under a threshold. 

[Geographyhater8888]

8 hours ago, chibears55 said:

I hope so, they need to add to the talent they have to move forward,  not waste it with mediocre players to stay under a threshold. 

Where’s internal depth to supplement a rotation with Skubal and Morjeran at the price they to stay under the cap? This isn’t 2016 with Arrietta, Hendricks and a bunch of 23 YO position players on pre arb deals.

I’m expecting 3 Jack Flaherys, 1 Dustin May and an assortment of experimental corner outfield bats. Prove me wrong, Jed/Tom.

Edited Sunday at 12:35 PM by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Where’s internal depth to supplement a rotation with Skubal and Morjeran at the price they to stay under the cap? This isn’t 2016 with Arrietta, Hendricks and a bunch of 23 YO position players on pre arb deals.

I’m expecting 3 Jack Flaherys, 1 Dustin May and an assortment of experimental corner outfield bats. Prove me wrong, Jed/Tom.

There is a lot of room between Flaherty and May pickups and Skubal and Morejon. Which is where I think the Cubs will play. Maybe one “May” guy but then 2 others better (Holmes and Rogers, perhaps). While I agree they can and should get Skubal, it doesn’t mean if they don’t they went to all Flaherty/May signings. As for Morejon, I just don’t see it at all. 

[Geographyhater8888]

30 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

There is a lot of room between Flaherty and May pickups and Skubal and Morejon. Which is where I think the Cubs will play. Maybe one “May” guy but then 2 others better (Holmes and Rogers, perhaps). While I agree they can and should get Skubal, it doesn’t mean if they don’t they went to all Flaherty/May signings. As for Morejon, I just don’t see it at all. 

It’s the Same one step forward one step backwards approach year after year. Maybe they’ll win 88 games with a +70 run differential instead of +125.

[Nolo]

I don't hate it.

Edited Sunday at 03:35 PM by Nolo

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Nolo said:

I don't hate it.

Not bad. I don’t see the need for a second trade in either scenerio. Just stick with Maton and have him in the pen. He has just as good a chance to be a decent pen arm as anyone you suggest. I also don’t see the need to trade for Kwan. Sign the pitchers, Sanchez and corner outfielders you suggested and go with it. And if Brown or Steele can’t start, go with Cabrera and hope he returns to his form before ‘26. Maybe between Brown, Steele, Garrett, Cabrera and Assad they get 65 starts. Move those 5 guys in and out of the rotation to control their innings. Try keeping them healthy. 

[Nolo]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Not bad. I don’t see the need for a second trade in either scenerio. Just stick with Maton and have him in the pen. He has just as good a chance to be a decent pen arm as anyone you suggest. I also don’t see the need to trade for Kwan. Sign the pitchers, Sanchez and corner outfielders you suggested and go with it. And if Brown or Steele can’t start, go with Cabrera and hope he returns to his form before ‘26. Maybe between Brown, Steele, Garrett, Cabrera and Assad they get 65 starts. Move those 5 guys in and out of the rotation to control their innings. Try keeping them healthy. 

Yeah the Maton to A’s trade was a throwaway salary dump, I picked the first team I saw to trade with. You’re probably right on Maton. Can live without Burke. The Kwan trade was to try and get the best defensive OF (PCA, Kwan, Grisham, Alcantara) as the Cubs do seem to prioritize defense. I’d be happy with either scenario and keeps them below $245M.

That 4th slot in rotation is up for grabs with Brown/Cabrera. Brown if healthy is the better option both starting and in the pen, but Cabrera has potential and stuff to be a bullpen option, I just don’t know with him anymore.

Garrett and Assad for depth and cover inevitable injuries.

Edited Sunday at 04:37 PM by Nolo

[Rcal10]

38 minutes ago, Nolo said:

Yeah the Maton to A’s trade was a throwaway salary dump, I picked the first team I saw to trade with. You’re probably right on Maton. Can live without Burke. The Kwan trade was to try and get the best defensive OF (PCA, Kwan, Grisham, Alcantara) as the Cubs do seem to prioritize defense. I’d be happy with either scenario and keeps them below $245M.

That 4th slot in rotation is up for grabs with Brown/Cabrera. Brown if healthy is the better option both starting and in the pen, but Cabrera has potential and stuff to be a bullpen option, I just don’t know with him anymore.

Garrett and Assad for depth and cover inevitable injuries.

We are pretty close in our thoughts. I just don’t see the pen as much if a need as you do. I also think middle relief pitchers are a crapshoot. One who had a bad year can have a good year the next, and vice versa. There are some elite arms. But I don’t see the Cubs shopping in that aisle. Even if they did sign Morejon, IMO, it would be with the thought of starting. I also didn’t realize you only went to $245M. They mayb go higher. Maybe they add someone like Peterson for $13M. Then the last spot is less critical. You have Cabrera, Steele and Brown all as options. Until the Cubs decline giving Steele a contract, I am counting him as a pitcher on the staff. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Really like this one. If you wanna go up one more threshold to $284, you can sign Seiya instead of Grisham.

[Stratos]

 I'd imagine they try to squeeze under the first LT line as usual, which is 247m in 2027.  So like 235m

[Rcal10]

35 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Really like this one. If you wanna go up one more threshold to $284, you can sign Seiya instead of Grisham.

Not really a fan of trading Shaw and Wiggins for 2 years of Detmers. Also no interest in any prospects being traded for one year of Kwan. I just don’t get departing the farm for short term gains. I am fine trading prospects, but either get back a star or another guy with similar time before being a FA. Kwan is not a star. Detmers might be, but if I am trading Shaw I want someone like Hancock and hope he is the next Detmers. At least you have him for more than 2 years. 

Edited Sunday at 07:39 PM by Rcal10