Cubs (Peterson) vs Brewers (Misiorowski): 09/08/26, 6:40 PM

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

Do those 5 1/2 months matter as much as what is happening now? I don’t think so  

just to entertain this a little bit, what does 'now' mean to you? is it the 3-3 in the last 6 games? the 4-5 in the last 9? 19-17 since the trade deadline? or just like, the last 25 pitches thrown by our bullpen (all of which were thrown by guys, to soccer's point, that have been on the team all year)

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

It looked like a terrible pitch because he hit the absolute horsefeathers out of it but....I don't know. I think traditionally you don't want to leave change ups on the upper half of the plate but it wasn't like this was middle middle. 

It's effectively a meatball to me. 85 mph right in his wheelhouse. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

It's two right-on-right changeups in a row to guy with immense power. It's not a good sequence unless the second one is out of the zone. Even then, it's Chourio, a great bad ball hitter.

Edited yesterday at 07:30 PM by Tangled Up in Plaid

[Soul]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Because their odds of making the playoffs went from 98.9% to 97.8%. The math is still very, very substantially in our favor. 

I hate that stat.

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, Soul said:

I hate that stat.

This doesn't come from an angry position but can I ask *why* you hate that stat? Do you hate it because there is a legitimate flaw? Or because it doesn't jive with your vibes? 

I ask that not to be a jerk or some righteous ass, but just because I think most of the time when we see a statistic and hate it, it's just because it doesn't match our world view (i.e. the sky is falling because of the bullpen) versus it being a bad statistic. 

[Soul]

46 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

This doesn't come from an angry position but can I ask *why* you hate that stat? Do you hate it because there is a legitimate flaw? Or because it doesn't jive with your vibes? 

I ask that not to be a jerk or some righteous ass, but just because I think most of the time when we see a statistic and hate it, it's just because it doesn't match our world view (i.e. the sky is falling because of the bullpen) versus it being a bad statistic. 

This is probably ignorant but I don’t like it because it’s a snapshot in time, and we no longer live in that snapshot of time.  It’s 98% today but it’s tomorrow, so we have to take the snapshot again, and so on.  I don’t see the value of that.

It’s like those win probability trend lines.  People post that it was 99% then a bunch of crazy stuff happens and it goes completely the opposite direction.  Why put stock in that?

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, Soul said:

This is probably ignorant but I don’t like it because it’s a snapshot in time, and we no longer live in that snapshot of time.  It’s 98% today but it’s tomorrow, so we have to take the snapshot again, and so on.  I don’t see the value of that.

It’s like those win probability trend lines.  People post that it was 99% then a bunch of crazy stuff happens and it goes completely the opposite direction.  Why put stock in that?

Because at that time it is still a 99% chance of whatever they are talking about. So basically the Cubs have a 97% chance of making the playoffs. If they lose the next few games and the Dbacks and Padres win and the odds go down, it doesn’t matters as of this day it is 97%. Whatever happens between then at the time the playoffs start assuming they get in, the stat is accurate. So when you say a bunch of crazy stuff  happen, that isn’t really true. In the end the 97% chance came to be a fact. 
if you don’t put stock in the odds, would you bet straight up the Cubs won’t make the playoffs? Or do you realize it is a very good chance they do? 

[Soul]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Because at that time it is still a 99% chance of whatever they are talking about. So basically the Cubs have a 97% chance of making the playoffs. If they lose the next few games and the Dbacks and Padres win and the odds go down, it doesn’t matters as of this day it is 97%. Whatever happens between then at the time the playoffs start assuming they get in, the stat is accurate. So when you say a bunch of crazy stuff  happen, that isn’t really true. In the end the 97% chance came to be a fact. 
if you don’t put stock in the odds, would you bet straight up the Cubs won’t make the playoffs? Or do you realize it is a very good chance they do? 

But what value are we getting from it?  It’s 98% today.  3 days from now uh-oh it’s down to 90%. Then whew back up to 95%.  Etc

[squally1313]

12 minutes ago, Soul said:

But what value are we getting from it?  It’s 98% today.  3 days from now uh-oh it’s down to 90%. Then whew back up to 95%.  Etc

I mean, like 70% of the conversations around here are centered around ‘will we/wont we make the playoffs’. Obviously this stat doesn’t like, drive managerial decisions, except for probably reassuring counsell that he doesn’t have to start homes every other day for the rest of the year. 
 

But it’s a good counter against the doomboners that it remains, statistically, highly, highly improbable that we miss the playoffs. 

[Wilson A2000]