White Sox (TBD) vs Cubs (Gausman): 08/18/26, 7:05 PM

[bjam12]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I still think there's a guy there for Cabrera. I do think 2026 has been a rough year for him; whatever they're working on him with hasn't taken. But the Cubs have already said he's coming back in a relief position, so not sure Assad will be cleaning up much there.

I'm really looking forward to seeing what he can do in a relief role. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, bjam12 said:

I'm really looking forward to seeing what he can do in a relief role. 

Me too. Especially because he's been much better against RHP this year. You can use him as a super charged guy to get RHP out. Like Ferguson but...better.

[UMFan83]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I think we're well overrating Javier Assad if we think the Cubs are significantly better on the field with Assad in the bullpen or in Iowa. I like Assad, but let's be real about how long relief works; you use them in games where you're already losing. Now, that isn't to say there isn't value there; if you follow the podcast you'll hear me talk about the "designated loser" pretty often, the concept of keeping the game close when you're behind to allow your offense to catch up. We saw it last night! But I'm not sure Assad is a massive, game changing upgrade on Rea, and there's a reason that when you're behind it's still unlikely to come back to win. Anecdotally it helps, but let's not over value this too much, either. 

The point is that the Cubs can have their cake (depth) and eat it too (Assad will be used). If the Cubs had DFA'd Aaron Civale a few days ago to keep Assad, then who's coming up for Cabrera? We can't ignore this aspect. 

I want to make it clear: I like Javier Assad. The Cubs have needed Assad this year. But I also think the Cubs need Colin Rea right now. And they need depth. We saw what May looked like when we were scraping at the very bottom of the barrel. Cabrera is on the IL with a blister. Last night Guasman had a weird cramp which, let's be real, we all probably held our breath a little on. Clay Holmes spent time on the 60-day this year. Matthew Boyd has plenty of injury history. As much as we want to just forget May and say "it won't happen again", it's pitching and it can happen again. The division is almost assuredly not going to be decided by whether or not Assad is in Iowa versus Chicago if everyone is healthy. But it may be decided by the Cubs' deciding that depth doesn't matter all of a sudden. We finally have depth - let's not throw it away because we're impatient.

But the point I'm trying to make is, the risk of collapsing and missing the playoffs (currently up 8 games on a playoff spot and 6 games up for WC1) is small enough to the point where if you cut Civale or Rea and then deal with pitching injuries its not going to tank the season.  But any incremental edge the Cubs can get to try to claw back and catch Milwaukee is important IMO.  If you are worried about the Cubs screwing up their depth for the playoffs we still have hope that a few of Brown, Cabrera, Hollowell, Milner, Palencia and Steele can come back this year (correct me if I'm wrong with any of them, I haven't followed their progress too closely except Palencia since he's doing rehab).  Which brings another question, who goes when some of those guys come back?  Probably Civale, Rea, Thielbar. 

Also, I do think there's a big difference between Assad and Rea (or Civale).  I understand Assad's underlying numbers show that he should be having much worse results but that's literally been the case every season of his career.  Is 414 MLB innings enough so suggest he is a player that consistently overachieves his xFIP and he's not just getting lucky?  I personally think so.

[Jason Ross]

39 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

But the point I'm trying to make is, the risk of collapsing and missing the playoffs (currently up 8 games on a playoff spot and 6 games up for WC1) is small enough to the point where if you cut Civale or Rea and then deal with pitching injuries its not going to tank the season.  But any incremental edge the Cubs can get to try to claw back and catch Milwaukee is important IMO.  If you are worried about the Cubs screwing up their depth for the playoffs we still have hope that a few of Brown, Cabrera, Hollowell, Milner, Palencia and Steele can come back this year (correct me if I'm wrong with any of them, I haven't followed their progress too closely except Palencia since he's doing rehab).  Which brings another question, who goes when some of those guys come back?  Probably Civale, Rea, Thielbar. 

Also, I do think there's a big difference between Assad and Rea (or Civale).  I understand Assad's underlying numbers show that he should be having much worse results but that's literally been the case every season of his career.  Is 414 MLB innings enough so suggest he is a player that consistently overachieves his xFIP and he's not just getting lucky?  I personally think so.

ZiPs has Assad being worth 0.1 fWAR the rest of the year in 22 innings. They have Rea worth 0.2 fWAR in 30 IP. Let's assume those IP are correct. Even if you think the difference between the two is a gulf, there is just two P in baseball between 20 and 30 IP who has put up a full win; Samy Natera Jr and Josh Hader. So unless you're assuming that Javier Assad is going to turn into Josh Hader, you're looking around probably the best case scenario being like fractional wins; the difference between .2 fWAR and .4 or .5 fWAR. And that...feels rich even at that.

The point I'm making is the difference is incredibly minimal. We can anecdotally point to a game here or there or whatever, but anecdotes are just that; anecdotes. Data tells us that it's not a major difference. The Cubs are 4.5 games back and while fractional things might matter, they don't matter so much that you begin DFA'ing players when you can option players. 

The division is not going to be decided whether or not the Cubs option Assad for 11 days. The most likely scenario is that the division is decided between August 31st and September 9th when the Cubs and the Brewers play seven times. And in six of those games, they have expanded rosters so Assad would be here anyways.

[17 Seconds]

it seems like kelly has been involved with a ton of big moments the last 2 seasons. that was a nice signing

[We Got The Whole 9]

17 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

it seems like kelly has been involved with a ton of big moments the last 2 seasons. that was a nice signing

Also:

 

2025 2nd half - 69 wRC+

2026 2nd half - 68 wRC+

 

He falls off a horsefeathers cliff each year 

[squally1313]

23 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The most likely scenario is that the division is decided between August 31st and September 9th when the Cubs and the Brewers play nine times. And in eight of those games, they have expanded rosters so Assad would be here anyways.

Seven times*

Six of those games*

Just for everyone else's benfit

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Seven times*

Six of those games*

Just for everyone else's benfit

Damnit. I knew it was seven. I have no idea why I decided in that post suddenly it was nine. I think "September 9th" was on my brain and went too quickly. 

Either that or I simply cannot count. My math teacher's throughout the years would definitely point to this fact as the issue.

[UMFan83]

22 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

ZiPs has Assad being worth 0.1 fWAR the rest of the year in 22 innings. They have Rea worth 0.2 fWAR in 30 IP. Let's assume those IP are correct. Even if you think the difference between the two is a gulf, there is just two P in baseball between 20 and 30 IP who has put up a full win; Samy Natera Jr and Josh Hader. So unless you're assuming that Javier Assad is going to turn into Josh Hader, you're looking around probably the best case scenario being like fractional wins; the difference between .2 fWAR and .4 or .5 fWAR. And that...feels rich even at that.

The point I'm making is the difference is incredibly minimal. We can anecdotally point to a game here or there or whatever, but anecdotes are just that; anecdotes. Data tells us that it's not a major difference. The Cubs are 4.5 games back and while fractional things might matter, they don't matter so much that you begin DFA'ing players when you can option players. 

The division is not going to be decided whether or not the Cubs option Assad for 11 days. The most likely scenario is that the division is decided between August 31st and September 9th when the Cubs and the Brewers play nine times. And in eight of those games, they have expanded rosters so Assad would be here anyways.

You are right that 11 games isn't enough time for Assad to greatly accumulate a meaningful amount of additional WAR than another pitcher.  Though I would say that by being a metrics beater, ZIPS is naturally going to undersell Assad (though initial point remains).  Also when we are talking such a small sample, one mistake, one bad inning, etc is going to have an oversized impact that you can't really account for with WAR.  Sure that also means Assad can throw a bad pitch with the bases loaded and give up a grand slam where Rea might have induced a ground out.  But in general, I'd trust the pitcher who has performed better to be less likely to make that mistake.

Bottom line for me is that the depth doesn't really matter.  Given who is coming back, it would take a significant number of setbacks for the loss of Civale or Rea to make a difference in the Cubs season.  I'd prefer to maximize the chances of winning the division by remaining incrementally better, not sending down Assad to protect a player who is probably going to be DFA'd in a couple weeks anyways.  Will it make a huge difference?  Probably not, but the downside is minimal IMO.  

But agree to disagree, I understand your points and they make sense logically, I just don't think we need to protect a pitcher who is likely not long for this team anyways at the expense of continually sending Assad down and then back up again when he has performed in every season as a big league pitcher.

[bukie]

35 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

You are right that 11 games isn't enough time for Assad to greatly accumulate a meaningful amount of additional WAR than another pitcher.  Though I would say that by being a metrics beater, ZIPS is naturally going to undersell Assad (though initial point remains).  Also when we are talking such a small sample, one mistake, one bad inning, etc is going to have an oversized impact that you can't really account for with WAR.  Sure that also means Assad can throw a bad pitch with the bases loaded and give up a grand slam where Rea might have induced a ground out.  But in general, I'd trust the pitcher who has performed better to be less likely to make that mistake.

Bottom line for me is that the depth doesn't really matter.  Given who is coming back, it would take a significant number of setbacks for the loss of Civale or Rea to make a difference in the Cubs season.  I'd prefer to maximize the chances of winning the division by remaining incrementally better, not sending down Assad to protect a player who is probably going to be DFA'd in a couple weeks anyways.  Will it make a huge difference?  Probably not, but the downside is minimal IMO.  

But agree to disagree, I understand your points and they make sense logically, I just don't think we need to protect a pitcher who is likely not long for this team anyways at the expense of continually sending Assad down and then back up again when he has performed in every season as a big league pitcher.

In effect, though, sending Assad "down to the minors" has largely been a semantic effort recently as a way to keep an extra pitcher around without needing to play the DL games (well, play them as much, hi Cabrera). Assad has options, so use the options to gain a roster spot. He likely didn't miss any major league time in his last stint down it was so short.

I'm sure the next labor agreement is going to have some fun wrinkles to it too, but for now, this is the built in effect of the option system, and that's really the only reason Assad is bouncing around.