Cubs Farm System Updates: So Many Moving Parts In Latest Top-20 Prospect Ranking

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

July can be a bit of a wild month when it comes to prospect lists. On one hand, new additions via the amateur draft can shake up the order with a flood of exiting new talents. Having multiple picks in the top-75, the Chicago Cubs were able to add a lot of upside into the system with some exciting youngsters fresh out of college; Cade Townsend (first round), Caden Sorrel (second round) and Myles Bailey (third round) are a welcome group with big-time potential.

At the same time, July can represent a time where teams with October aspirations will subtract from their pool of talent, something the Cubs very much did as Jefferson Rojas and Mason McGwire (among others) now find themselves in new homes. Where does the system sit today after all of the incoming an outgoing players? Below you will find the results of our most recent crowd-sourced voting by readers and staff here on North Side Baseball. 

Chicago Cubs Updated Top-20 Prospects List (Post-Deadline 2026)

1. Josiah Hartshorn, OF
2. Cade Townsend, P
3. Jaxon Wiggins, P
4. Owen Ayers, C
5. Kane Kepley, OF
6. Ethan Conrad, OF
7. Caden Sorrell, OF
8. Kaleb Wing, P
9. Myles Bailey, 1b
10. Brooks Caple, P
11. James Triantos, utility
12. Will Sanders, P
13. Juan Cabada, INF
14. Jostin Florentino, P
15. Derniche Valdez, INF
16. Grant Kipp, P
17. Jose Escobar, OF
18. Ariel Armas, C
19. Fernando Cruz, INF
20. Brandon Birdsell, P

New Additions

The newest additions to our Cubs top-20 are the three aforementioned top-75 selections in the most recent draft. You can view their scouting reports from our draft day profiles on each of them (by clicking on the hyperlinks below).

• Cade Townsend
• Caden Sorrell
• Myles Bailey

Only Sorrel has joined an affiliate, as Townsend is coming off a full year of pitching in the SEC while Bailey is still recovering from an injury. All three are fun upside plays, and Sorrell so far is looking fun in small doses. The strikeout rate is elevated at Low-A, sitting just under 30%, but that isn't surprising based on his draft profile. Much of the work there will likely be swing-related and will happen over the offseason. Now is as much about acclimatization as it is results. 

Outside of the draftees, Jose Escobar is our other new addition to the top-20 list. Escobar, 21, is a former international free agent signing out of Venezuela in the 2022 cycle. Despite being unheralded at the time, the kid has just kept hitting and hasn't stopped yet, earning a promotion mid-year in 2026 to High-A South Bend. Escobar is a smaller-framed outfielder, listed at 5'8" and 165lbs (this information is likely well out of date now) who has managed to not allow his size to slow him down, posting a 123 wRC+ on the season as a whole. He's managed some solid data across the board as well as promising reports of his exit velocities, which make you think there's more power to tap into. His left-handed swing is quite pretty and it wouldn't be the craziest thing for him to slide under the prospect radar like Pedro Ramirez did only to explode one day. He's one to keep an eye on for the future.

Prospects on the Rise

Escobar isn't the only prospect who's seen their stock jump. There's no better example of a prospect with a rocket ship attached to their back than catcher Owen Ayers. The former 19th-round pick out of Marshal has really forced the Cubs' hands this year, screaming through High-A and Double-A already; he could be in line for a 2026 promotion in September. The organization has treated him like a top-50 (or so) prospect and is very high on him and the numbers have backed this up. Really, the only knock is that he's already 25 years old. 

A pair of 2025-draftees also have their arrow pointing up, as Kane Kepley and Ethan Conrad are both making late bids to be on top-100 lists entering the 2027 season. Both have been recently promoted, Kepley to Double-A Knoxville and Conrad to High-A South Bend, on merit and both are showing the flashes of brilliance that caused the Cubs to select them in the top-60 last season. They're prospects who certainly look to have an MLB future and by the end of 2027, it wouldn't be insane to think they will both be knocking on door of being called up and realizing that possibility. 

Prospects Whose Stock Has Fallen

Jaxon Wiggins hasn't had a very smooth 2026. After missing a good chunk of last year due to injury, Wiggins started this year on the IL as well. Since returning, he's really struggled with command of his pitches. More troubling has been his lack of velocity; routinely hitting 98-100mph last year even late into games. there have been days this year he's sat 95 and below. While it looked like this time last year he would be a possibility to help the Cubs in Chicago sometime this season, that timeline has been moved back.

Two other pitchers have their stock somewhat in limbo due to current injury concerns as well in Kaleb Wing and Will Sanders. Wing, another 2025 draftee has had a major setback: the dreaded Tommy John surgery. We'll have to wait until (likely) 2028 to see the talented rookie again, so while he looked excellent in what we got to see of him this year, his future breakout will have to wait. Will Sanders, another pitcher, was also placed on the 60-day IL, though his injury cause is more cloudy as there have been no reports on what the cause of the ailment is. Sanders looked like he might be on the precipice himself of an MLB debut, but that won't happen this year. Hopefully he'll avoid the same fate as Wing and that will only delay his debut until next season.

Overall Thoughts on the System

This year was always going to be a season in which the name of the game was "transition." The Cubs were already moving from a system with a lot of talent near the MLB to one that was much more speculative and concentrated in the lower levels. Add in a draft and a trade deadline that threw a ton of moving parts into the mix, and it's very much in flux like we all thought it would be.

This can be seen just from the variety in our lists. There is Josiah Hartshorn who is the consensus best prospect, a lot of players in that second or third tier where you can rank them in almost any order (for example, I personally have Owen Ayers No. 2 with Wiggins down at fourth) and then a host of prospects you can rank anywhere between, say, tenth to 30th. In other words, it's murky and we all have opinions. 

The positive is that we're seeing some of those prospects bubble up just below the surface which will allow some more clarity next season. A few 2026 draftees have hit the ground running; pitchers Chase Meyer (ninth round) and Luke Alwood (10th round) have already found their way to Myrtle Beach and have looked promising. Jose Escobar has become quite interesting in South Bend and continues to hit. Derniche Valdez wears glasses now and strikes out less. There are good things happening. 

There will be some who view the losses at the deadline as crippling, and they have that right. Losing a prospect like Jefferson Rojas is never easy, and pitchers like Mason McGwire were starting to look like potential steals. The prospect list will likely look very different 365 days from now due to promotions, another draft and another deadline, but this feels like a system that is on the right track (in my humble opinion) on the whole, even if they lost some fun players along the way.

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[JBears79]

As a Fernando Cruz truther, I'm happy to see you have him at 19. Hoping next season is a breakout.

[Jason Ross]

37 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

As a Fernando Cruz truther, I'm happy to see you have him at 19. Hoping next season is a breakout.

One of these IFA bonus babies have to hit. Right?!

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

They might need to check Fernando's eyes and see if he needs glasses.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

They might need to check Fernando's eyes and see if he needs glasses.

Cubs announce 2027 ad patch with Pearl Vision

[profisme]

3 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

They might need to check Fernando's eyes and see if he needs glasses.

Didn’t that help Luis Valbuena significantly? RIP. There was a guy not long ago repping the valbuena jersey in the broadcast.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

1 minute ago, profisme said:

Didn’t that help Luis Valbuena significantly? RIP. There was a guy not long ago repping the valbuena jersey in the broadcast.

Max Muncy as well

[Gunga la Gunga]

I think fans should be much higher on this system than the rankings of aggregate talent in the minors suggest.

1. The system has proven that it can produce, whether that is mlb talent (PCA, Shaw, Rameriez, etc.) or in generating MLB talent through trades (Mathis for Peterson . . . nice)

2. The system is acquiring talent in a multitude of ways: first round picks are on target, later round picks are developing, IFAs can be found both in the majors and at every level, and even minor league free agents (e.g. Beck) are bringing value

3. This trade period / over the winter at least, the Cubs were willing to part with talent before it atrophied (Long, Ballesteros, Casey, etc.), and got value before it disappeared

4. Development is happening . . . talent gets better once it's in the system.  It's hard to look at Cabrera, Rameriez, Ayers, etc. and think that this is all just 'normal maturation'

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, Gunga la Gunga said:

I think fans should be much higher on this system than the rankings of aggregate talent in the minors suggest.

1. The system has proven that it can produce, whether that is mlb talent (PCA, Shaw, Rameriez, etc.) or in generating MLB talent through trades (Mathis for Peterson . . . nice)

2. The system is acquiring talent in a multitude of ways: first round picks are on target, later round picks are developing, IFAs can be found both in the majors and at every level, and even minor league free agents (e.g. Beck) are bringing value

3. This trade period / over the winter at least, the Cubs were willing to part with talent before it atrophied (Long, Ballesteros, Casey, etc.), and got value before it disappeared

4. Development is happening . . . talent gets better once it's in the system.  It's hard to look at Cabrera, Rameriez, Ayers, etc. and think that this is all just 'normal maturation'

Welcome to the site!

[Jason Ross]

22 minutes ago, Gunga la Gunga said:

I think fans should be much higher on this system than the rankings of aggregate talent in the minors suggest.

1. The system has proven that it can produce, whether that is mlb talent (PCA, Shaw, Rameriez, etc.) or in generating MLB talent through trades (Mathis for Peterson . . . nice)

2. The system is acquiring talent in a multitude of ways: first round picks are on target, later round picks are developing, IFAs can be found both in the majors and at every level, and even minor league free agents (e.g. Beck) are bringing value

3. This trade period / over the winter at least, the Cubs were willing to part with talent before it atrophied (Long, Ballesteros, Casey, etc.), and got value before it disappeared

4. Development is happening . . . talent gets better once it's in the system.  It's hard to look at Cabrera, Rameriez, Ayers, etc. and think that this is all just 'normal maturation'

 

First off, welcome to NSBB! 

Secondly, I whole heartedly agree. I like what is happening in the system and how the Cubs draft. Their misses have been in odd-ball scouting years (2020 and 2021) where the whole baseball world got turned upside down. Beyond that, they have drafted well and have consistently turned MiLB talent into MLB talent in one way (promotions) or another (trade). Really, that's what you ask for.

Even more promising is their ability to find talent beyond the top-10 or first-round. They have found prospects in the second round and beyond (no easy feat). The one knock is the pitching development and the team feels like they have solved that with Tyler Zombro. 

Truly, I feel good where they're going as an organization in how they handle young players. They've shown the ability to draft well. And they're also showing the ability to backfill. 

[Bertz]

I think the distinction I'd make is that the farm isn't light on talent, it's light on value.  6 of those top 15 guys are in A ball, and the farm's balance of power has finally (Finally!) shifted from position players to pitchers.

It's a bottom 10 farm system, and I wouldn't fight anyone who said bottom 5.  But I think it's closer to the late '21 early '22 farm where we had plenty of fun stuff like Caissie but it was million miles away than e.g. the '19 / '20 farm that was basically strip-mined after Hoerner/Amaya/Davis.  Those MB/SB lineups legitimately bang and there are pitchers with legitimate stuff up and down the farm.

Edit to Add: The above should say 6 of 15 are above A ball, not in A ball

Edited Tuesday at 02:41 PM by Bertz

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think the distinction I'd make is that the farm isn't light on talent, it's light on value.  6 of those top 15 guys are in A ball, and the farm's balance of power has finally (Finally!) shifted from position players to pitchers.

It's a bottom 10 farm system, and I wouldn't fight anyone who said bottom 5.  But I think it's closer to the late '21 early '22 farm where we had plenty of fun stuff like Caissie but it was million miles away than e.g. the '19 / '20 farm that was basically strip-mined after Hoerner/Amaya/Davis.  Those MB/SB lineups legitimately bang and there are pitchers with legitimate stuff up and down the farm.

I also think that's fair, too. And why the down-list is so murky. Like, I wouldn't have Ariel Armas in my top-20, but would certainly have Dylan Blomker in it somewhere but anyone who has it flopped? What am I going to do? I think both are very possible. I think there are probably 20-25 players you could slot into the 11-20 range and I'd have an issue arguing with you. And most of those names (maybe all of them) are in High-A or below. 

It feels like a system we are not going to gain a lot of clarity on for a year or two, which makes it cloudy, but simultaneously exciting. 

[Outshined_One]

Simple question for @Jason Ross:

Why Cade Townsend #2?

And yes, I'll have an annoyingly detailed follow-up after you respond.  😃

[Jason Ross]

21 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Simple question for @Jason Ross:

Why Cade Townsend #2?

And yes, I'll have an annoyingly detailed follow-up after you respond.  😃

So this is our crowd-sourced voting results. My personal rankings can be found here which will also include a very brief reasoning behind it. I also hadn't seen confirmation on Wing's TJS at the moment, so I'd probably have dropped him a spot or two? 

I have Townsend third and Ayers is my personal number two. However based on the voting numbers, I wasn't able to outweigh the consensus. 

Reasoning behind Ayers #2 is based very much on how the Cubs view Ayers (from a few conversations I've had with some folks who know much more about how the team views him internally) and how they treated him akin to a top-50 prospect. He's had a great year, the Cubs love him and the data looks promising; I think it all adds up to the second best guy right now. They might be the high-man on the totem here, but based on how teams were asking about him, I don't think they're alone. I think the gap between Ayers and Hartshorn is smaller than the gap between Ayers and Townsend to give further detail. 

For a little spicy extra tidbit, however; based on a few things post-deadline which opened up my eyes a bit...I probably would have had Rojas in the four spot behind Townsend (or maybe right in front of him as a 3a/3b situation, I haven't super thought about it). And maybe that's reactionary (he was ahead of Hartshorn as recently as the previous voting on my personal list, so it's a stark change and I recognize that), but a few things have set my alarm bells off there and I feel like I have a lot more information today than 30-days ago. To the point where I think the Cubs' probably have a better feel there and I want to default to that feeling.

[Outshined_One]

46 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I think the gap between Ayers and Hartshorn is smaller than the gap between Ayers and Townsend to give further detail. 

This is kind of where my question was going, because Hartshorn appears to be the only consensus Top 100 prospect in the system, and generally sits around 50-75 range.  I fully accept the fact that Wiggins/Ayers/Kepley/Conrad are all borderline Top 100 types as things currently stand in the system, and I agree that Ayers is the best of the bunch.

Where I furrow my brow is...Townsend ahead of those guys?  Really?  It's not like Townsend was a consensus Top 10 pick who dropped due to bonus demands into the Cubs' laps, so is he really that much better than that tier?  Does that speak to the system being weak, Townsend being really good, some combination of the two, or something else?  I don't think we're going to see him get any in-game action until next season, either, so this kinda reeks of Shiny New Toy Syndrome more than anything else.

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

This is kind of where my question was going, because Hartshorn appears to be the only consensus Top 100 prospect in the system, and generally sits around 50-75 range.  I fully accept the fact that Wiggins/Ayers/Kepley/Conrad are all borderline Top 100 types as things currently stand in the system, and I agree that Ayers is the best of the bunch.

Where I furrow my brow is...Townsend ahead of those guys?  Really?  It's not like Townsend was a consensus Top 10 pick who dropped due to bonus demands into the Cubs' laps, so is he really that much better than that tier?  Does that speak to the system being weak, Townsend being really good, some combination of the two, or something else?  I don't think we're going to see him get any in-game action until next season, either, so this kinda reeks of Shiny New Toy Syndrome more than anything else.

Yeah, I think two things are happening at the same time:
1. I think many people are slow to promote Ayers based largely on his age. To a degree I can get that. Recent history has Matt Mervis emblazoned in our brain. Five years ago I think I was too high on Mervis myself. I didn't have some of his swing data initially, I didn't have TJstats and his fangraphs page made him much rosier than I think the underlying data did. The Cubs saw that and were hesitant into 2023 to turn the keys over and they were proven right. I think fans incorrectly think Ayers is under the same umbrella.

The age-25 thing, for me at least, has become more of the reason he's not a top-25 prospect, but isn't holding me back from putting him in a 50-75 range (where I think he deserves to be in the big picture). 

Where I think they're especially wrong is that 1b is just an incredibly high bar to clear whereas catcher is an incredibly low bar to clear. Even if he doesn't hit well, he can still be a good hitting catcher. After a bump in league data last year, catchers are back to a paltry 90 wRC+ on the year. 

2. I think you nailed the tiny-new-toy. I ranked Cade Townsend over Jaxon Wiggins right now, but that's mostly because Wiggins has been MIA in some fashion for nearly a year and when we have seen him he's a rusty mess. I probably wouldn't bat an eye on the upside question between the two, but I think Cade probably gets a nudge simply because we haven't seen him yet? And I wouldn't fault anyone for pointing out Wiggins was really good last year and I'm falling a bit into that trap myself. Probably a fair critique. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I think you could blame shiny new toy syndrome if you are ranking Townsend over Conrad or Kepley. But Wiggins vs Townsend? We're pretty much to the point where we've given up on Wiggins being a viable big league starter and we aren't there with Townsend. Right now, he's not even projecting as a viable big league reliever with the drop in FB and the continued control questions in the upper minors.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

I think you could blame shiny new toy syndrome if you are ranking Townsend over Conrad or Kepley. But Wiggins vs Townsend? We're pretty much to the point where we've given up on Wiggins being a viable big league starter and we aren't there with Townsend. Right now, he's not even projecting as a viable big league reliever with the drop in FB and the continued control questions in the upper minors.

This is a very good summary of where I am with him, too. My hope is that we're seeing rust. But the reality is, he doesn't look good or right as of now. 

I had Townsend above those two, but when I ranked them, Conrad was struggling a little (it was right at the start of his hot run and then promotion) and Kepley had been just promoted. So that was my argument at the time. Crazy how a few weeks can change some math. 

[Bertz]

Conversations like this are why I really like the FV framework Fangraphs uses and try as much as possible to think about these guys in tiers.

IMO the top of our farm probably looks like this

55 Grade - Hartshorn

50 Grade - N/A

45+ Grade - Ayers, Conrad, Wiggins

45 Grade - Townsend, Kepley, Caple, maybe Wing, maybe Sorrell

I think Townsend is a tick behind that second tier of the farm, but also mindful of the fact that he's pretty liable to come out next April with like a 30/5 K/BB ratio in his first four starts and grab that #2 prospect mantle by the throat.

[Funky-daddy]

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

So this is our crowd-sourced voting results. My personal rankings can be found here which will also include a very brief reasoning behind it. I also hadn't seen confirmation on Wing's TJS at the moment, so I'd probably have dropped him a spot or two? 

I have Townsend third and Ayers is my personal number two. However based on the voting numbers, I wasn't able to outweigh the consensus. 

Reasoning behind Ayers #2 is based very much on how the Cubs view Ayers (from a few conversations I've had with some folks who know much more about how the team views him internally) and how they treated him akin to a top-50 prospect. He's had a great year, the Cubs love him and the data looks promising; I think it all adds up to the second best guy right now. They might be the high-man on the totem here, but based on how teams were asking about him, I don't think they're alone. I think the gap between Ayers and Hartshorn is smaller than the gap between Ayers and Townsend to give further detail. 

For a little spicy extra tidbit, however; based on a few things post-deadline which opened up my eyes a bit...I probably would have had Rojas in the four spot behind Townsend (or maybe right in front of him as a 3a/3b situation, I haven't super thought about it). And maybe that's reactionary (he was ahead of Hartshorn as recently as the previous voting on my personal list, so it's a stark change and I recognize that), but a few things have set my alarm bells off there and I feel like I have a lot more information today than 30-days ago. To the point where I think the Cubs' probably have a better feel there and I want to default to that feeling.

Can you expand on the bit about Rojas ?

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, Funky-daddy said:

Can you expand on the bit about Rojas ?

Sure thing! Glad to share the generals, though I'll refrain from a few specifics as I don't think it's my place. 

The Cubs don't think he's a shortstop defensively. And I think if we're being honest with ourselves we all knew that. What surprised me was what they thought of the bat; they don't like him offensively off of SS where the bar would be higher. One thing in specific was that his barrel just isn't very malleable. Layman's terms is that he isn't great at adapting his swing to meet the ball with the barrel all over the zone and they think that will limit him. If he isn't a SS then the bat has to carry the profile. The Cubs have concerns about the bat which isn't a great sign and the Cubs know Rojas probably better than anyone. And based on how they've done with trades and promotions, they haven't whiffed a ton on prospect evals over the last five years.

Beyond that, the Cubs were very willing to trade him at the deadline, and far less willing to trade others. Owen Ayers was definitely a hot name and the Cubs were very "hands-off" with him as they handled other teams. Clearly they weren't so with Rojas moving him for two rentals. While I cannot confirm, I suspect the Cubs offered Rojas to the Blue Jays for Soriano, as well. 

[Jason Ross]

23 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Conversations like this are why I really like the FV framework Fangraphs uses and try as much as possible to think about these guys in tiers.

IMO the top of our farm probably looks like this

55 Grade - Hartshorn

50 Grade - N/A

45+ Grade - Ayers, Conrad, Wiggins

45 Grade - Townsend, Kepley, Caple, maybe Wing, maybe Sorrell

I think Townsend is a tick behind that second tier of the farm, but also mindful of the fact that he's pretty liable to come out next April with like a 30/5 K/BB ratio in his first four starts and grab that #2 prospect mantle by the throat.

FV > Ranking. Every time. Fully agreed here. I'm at a point where I'd almost slide Ayers up a spot based on how high the Cubs are on him, they just seem to really like him which makes me question my own view, but that's probably a fair guess.