Cubs Farm System Updates: So Many Moving Parts In Latest Top-20 Prospect Ranking

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

July can be a bit of a wild month when it comes to prospect lists. On one hand, new additions via the amateur draft can shake up the order with a flood of exiting new talents. Having multiple picks in the top-75, the Chicago Cubs were able to add a lot of upside into the system with some exciting youngsters fresh out of college; Cade Townsend (first round), Caden Sorrel (second round) and Myles Bailey (third round) are a welcome group with big-time potential.

At the same time, July can represent a time where teams with October aspirations will subtract from their pool of talent, something the Cubs very much did as Jefferson Rojas and Mason McGwire (among others) now find themselves in new homes. Where does the system sit today after all of the incoming an outgoing players? Below you will find the results of our most recent crowd-sourced voting by readers and staff here on North Side Baseball. 

Chicago Cubs Updated Top-20 Prospects List (Post-Deadline 2026)

1. Josiah Hartshorn, OF
2. Cade Townsend, P
3. Jaxon Wiggins, P
4. Owen Ayers, C
5. Kane Kepley, OF
6. Ethan Conrad, OF
7. Caden Sorrell, OF
8. Kaleb Wing, P
9. Myles Bailey, 1b
10. Brooks Caple, P
11. James Triantos, utility
12. Will Sanders, P
13. Juan Cabada, INF
14. Jostin Florentino, P
15. Derniche Valdez, INF
16. Grant Kipp, P
17. Jose Escobar, OF
18. Ariel Armas, C
19. Fernando Cruz, INF
20. Brandon Birdsell, P

New Additions

The newest additions to our Cubs top-20 are the three aforementioned top-75 selections in the most recent draft. You can view their scouting reports from our draft day profiles on each of them (by clicking on the hyperlinks below).

• Cade Townsend
• Caden Sorrell
• Myles Bailey

Only Sorrel has joined an affiliate, as Townsend is coming off a full year of pitching in the SEC while Bailey is still recovering from an injury. All three are fun upside plays, and Sorrell so far is looking fun in small doses. The strikeout rate is elevated at Low-A, sitting just under 30%, but that isn't surprising based on his draft profile. Much of the work there will likely be swing-related and will happen over the offseason. Now is as much about acclimatization as it is results. 

Outside of the draftees, Jose Escobar is our other new addition to the top-20 list. Escobar, 21, is a former international free agent signing out of Venezuela in the 2022 cycle. Despite being unheralded at the time, the kid has just kept hitting and hasn't stopped yet, earning a promotion mid-year in 2026 to High-A South Bend. Escobar is a smaller-framed outfielder, listed at 5'8" and 165lbs (this information is likely well out of date now) who has managed to not allow his size to slow him down, posting a 123 wRC+ on the season as a whole. He's managed some solid data across the board as well as promising reports of his exit velocities, which make you think there's more power to tap into. His left-handed swing is quite pretty and it wouldn't be the craziest thing for him to slide under the prospect radar like Pedro Ramirez did only to explode one day. He's one to keep an eye on for the future.

Prospects on the Rise

Escobar isn't the only prospect who's seen their stock jump. There's no better example of a prospect with a rocket ship attached to their back than catcher Owen Ayers. The former 19th-round pick out of Marshal has really forced the Cubs' hands this year, screaming through High-A and Double-A already; he could be in line for a 2026 promotion in September. The organization has treated him like a top-50 (or so) prospect and is very high on him and the numbers have backed this up. Really, the only knock is that he's already 25 years old. 

A pair of 2025-draftees also have their arrow pointing up, as Kane Kepley and Ethan Conrad are both making late bids to be on top-100 lists entering the 2027 season. Both have been recently promoted, Kepley to Double-A Knoxville and Conrad to High-A South Bend, on merit and both are showing the flashes of brilliance that caused the Cubs to select them in the top-60 last season. They're prospects who certainly look to have an MLB future and by the end of 2027, it wouldn't be insane to think they will both be knocking on door of being called up and realizing that possibility. 

Prospects Whose Stock Has Fallen

Jaxon Wiggins hasn't had a very smooth 2026. After missing a good chunk of last year due to injury, Wiggins started this year on the IL as well. Since returning, he's really struggled with command of his pitches. More troubling has been his lack of velocity; routinely hitting 98-100mph last year even late into games. there have been days this year he's sat 95 and below. While it looked like this time last year he would be a possibility to help the Cubs in Chicago sometime this season, that timeline has been moved back.

Two other pitchers have their stock somewhat in limbo due to current injury concerns as well in Kaleb Wing and Will Sanders. Wing, another 2025 draftee has had a major setback: the dreaded Tommy John surgery. We'll have to wait until (likely) 2028 to see the talented rookie again, so while he looked excellent in what we got to see of him this year, his future breakout will have to wait. Will Sanders, another pitcher, was also placed on the 60-day IL, though his injury cause is more cloudy as there have been no reports on what the cause of the ailment is. Sanders looked like he might be on the precipice himself of an MLB debut, but that won't happen this year. Hopefully he'll avoid the same fate as Wing and that will only delay his debut until next season.

Overall Thoughts on the System

This year was always going to be a season in which the name of the game was "transition." The Cubs were already moving from a system with a lot of talent near the MLB to one that was much more speculative and concentrated in the lower levels. Add in a draft and a trade deadline that threw a ton of moving parts into the mix, and it's very much in flux like we all thought it would be.

This can be seen just from the variety in our lists. There is Josiah Hartshorn who is the consensus best prospect, a lot of players in that second or third tier where you can rank them in almost any order (for example, I personally have Owen Ayers No. 2 with Wiggins down at fourth) and then a host of prospects you can rank anywhere between, say, tenth to 30th. In other words, it's murky and we all have opinions. 

The positive is that we're seeing some of those prospects bubble up just below the surface which will allow some more clarity next season. A few 2026 draftees have hit the ground running; pitchers Chase Meyer (ninth round) and Luke Alwood (10th round) have already found their way to Myrtle Beach and have looked promising. Jose Escobar has become quite interesting in South Bend and continues to hit. Derniche Valdez wears glasses now and strikes out less. There are good things happening. 

There will be some who view the losses at the deadline as crippling, and they have that right. Losing a prospect like Jefferson Rojas is never easy, and pitchers like Mason McGwire were starting to look like potential steals. The prospect list will likely look very different 365 days from now due to promotions, another draft and another deadline, but this feels like a system that is on the right track (in my humble opinion) on the whole, even if they lost some fun players along the way.

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[JBears79]

As a Fernando Cruz truther, I'm happy to see you have him at 19. Hoping next season is a breakout.

[Jason Ross]

37 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

As a Fernando Cruz truther, I'm happy to see you have him at 19. Hoping next season is a breakout.

One of these IFA bonus babies have to hit. Right?!

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

They might need to check Fernando's eyes and see if he needs glasses.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

They might need to check Fernando's eyes and see if he needs glasses.

Cubs announce 2027 ad patch with Pearl Vision

[profisme]

3 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

They might need to check Fernando's eyes and see if he needs glasses.

Didn’t that help Luis Valbuena significantly? RIP. There was a guy not long ago repping the valbuena jersey in the broadcast.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

1 minute ago, profisme said:

Didn’t that help Luis Valbuena significantly? RIP. There was a guy not long ago repping the valbuena jersey in the broadcast.

Max Muncy as well

[Gunga la Gunga]

I think fans should be much higher on this system than the rankings of aggregate talent in the minors suggest.

1. The system has proven that it can produce, whether that is mlb talent (PCA, Shaw, Rameriez, etc.) or in generating MLB talent through trades (Mathis for Peterson . . . nice)

2. The system is acquiring talent in a multitude of ways: first round picks are on target, later round picks are developing, IFAs can be found both in the majors and at every level, and even minor league free agents (e.g. Beck) are bringing value

3. This trade period / over the winter at least, the Cubs were willing to part with talent before it atrophied (Long, Ballesteros, Casey, etc.), and got value before it disappeared

4. Development is happening . . . talent gets better once it's in the system.  It's hard to look at Cabrera, Rameriez, Ayers, etc. and think that this is all just 'normal maturation'

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, Gunga la Gunga said:

I think fans should be much higher on this system than the rankings of aggregate talent in the minors suggest.

1. The system has proven that it can produce, whether that is mlb talent (PCA, Shaw, Rameriez, etc.) or in generating MLB talent through trades (Mathis for Peterson . . . nice)

2. The system is acquiring talent in a multitude of ways: first round picks are on target, later round picks are developing, IFAs can be found both in the majors and at every level, and even minor league free agents (e.g. Beck) are bringing value

3. This trade period / over the winter at least, the Cubs were willing to part with talent before it atrophied (Long, Ballesteros, Casey, etc.), and got value before it disappeared

4. Development is happening . . . talent gets better once it's in the system.  It's hard to look at Cabrera, Rameriez, Ayers, etc. and think that this is all just 'normal maturation'

Welcome to the site!

[Jason Ross]

22 minutes ago, Gunga la Gunga said:

I think fans should be much higher on this system than the rankings of aggregate talent in the minors suggest.

1. The system has proven that it can produce, whether that is mlb talent (PCA, Shaw, Rameriez, etc.) or in generating MLB talent through trades (Mathis for Peterson . . . nice)

2. The system is acquiring talent in a multitude of ways: first round picks are on target, later round picks are developing, IFAs can be found both in the majors and at every level, and even minor league free agents (e.g. Beck) are bringing value

3. This trade period / over the winter at least, the Cubs were willing to part with talent before it atrophied (Long, Ballesteros, Casey, etc.), and got value before it disappeared

4. Development is happening . . . talent gets better once it's in the system.  It's hard to look at Cabrera, Rameriez, Ayers, etc. and think that this is all just 'normal maturation'

 

First off, welcome to NSBB! 

Secondly, I whole heartedly agree. I like what is happening in the system and how the Cubs draft. Their misses have been in odd-ball scouting years (2020 and 2021) where the whole baseball world got turned upside down. Beyond that, they have drafted well and have consistently turned MiLB talent into MLB talent in one way (promotions) or another (trade). Really, that's what you ask for.

Even more promising is their ability to find talent beyond the top-10 or first-round. They have found prospects in the second round and beyond (no easy feat). The one knock is the pitching development and the team feels like they have solved that with Tyler Zombro. 

Truly, I feel good where they're going as an organization in how they handle young players. They've shown the ability to draft well. And they're also showing the ability to backfill. 

[Bertz]

I think the distinction I'd make is that the farm isn't light on talent, it's light on value.  6 of those top 15 guys are in A ball, and the farm's balance of power has finally (Finally!) shifted from position players to pitchers.

It's a bottom 10 farm system, and I wouldn't fight anyone who said bottom 5.  But I think it's closer to the late '21 early '22 farm where we had plenty of fun stuff like Caissie but it was million miles away than e.g. the '19 / '20 farm that was basically strip-mined after Hoerner/Amaya/Davis.  Those MB/SB lineups legitimately bang and there are pitchers with legitimate stuff up and down the farm.

Edit to Add: The above should say 6 of 15 are above A ball, not in A ball

Edited 3 hours ago by Bertz

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think the distinction I'd make is that the farm isn't light on talent, it's light on value.  6 of those top 15 guys are in A ball, and the farm's balance of power has finally (Finally!) shifted from position players to pitchers.

It's a bottom 10 farm system, and I wouldn't fight anyone who said bottom 5.  But I think it's closer to the late '21 early '22 farm where we had plenty of fun stuff like Caissie but it was million miles away than e.g. the '19 / '20 farm that was basically strip-mined after Hoerner/Amaya/Davis.  Those MB/SB lineups legitimately bang and there are pitchers with legitimate stuff up and down the farm.

I also think that's fair, too. And why the down-list is so murky. Like, I wouldn't have Ariel Armas in my top-20, but would certainly have Dylan Blomker in it somewhere but anyone who has it flopped? What am I going to do? I think both are very possible. I think there are probably 20-25 players you could slot into the 11-20 range and I'd have an issue arguing with you. And most of those names (maybe all of them) are in High-A or below. 

It feels like a system we are not going to gain a lot of clarity on for a year or two, which makes it cloudy, but simultaneously exciting. 

[Outshined_One]

Simple question for @Jason Ross:

Why Cade Townsend #2?

And yes, I'll have an annoyingly detailed follow-up after you respond.  😃

[Jason Ross]

21 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Simple question for @Jason Ross:

Why Cade Townsend #2?

And yes, I'll have an annoyingly detailed follow-up after you respond.  😃

So this is our crowd-sourced voting results. My personal rankings can be found here which will also include a very brief reasoning behind it. I also hadn't seen confirmation on Wing's TJS at the moment, so I'd probably have dropped him a spot or two? 

I have Townsend third and Ayers is my personal number two. However based on the voting numbers, I wasn't able to outweigh the consensus. 

Reasoning behind Ayers #2 is based very much on how the Cubs view Ayers (from a few conversations I've had with some folks who know much more about how the team views him internally) and how they treated him akin to a top-50 prospect. He's had a great year, the Cubs love him and the data looks promising; I think it all adds up to the second best guy right now. They might be the high-man on the totem here, but based on how teams were asking about him, I don't think they're alone. I think the gap between Ayers and Hartshorn is smaller than the gap between Ayers and Townsend to give further detail. 

For a little spicy extra tidbit, however; based on a few things post-deadline which opened up my eyes a bit...I probably would have had Rojas in the four spot behind Townsend (or maybe right in front of him as a 3a/3b situation, I haven't super thought about it). And maybe that's reactionary (he was ahead of Hartshorn as recently as the previous voting on my personal list, so it's a stark change and I recognize that), but a few things have set my alarm bells off there and I feel like I have a lot more information today than 30-days ago. To the point where I think the Cubs' probably have a better feel there and I want to default to that feeling.