Nail, Meet Head.

[Roast]

Bruce Miles is cool. In his article, he says that walker should bat second, and hairston should get more leadoff chances. If nothing else, Patterson/Neifi should not be 1&2. He is cool.

 

Here is the article.

 

Here is a sneek peek:

 

Patterson has an on-base percentage of .276, and Perez is at .299. Those sickly figures just won’t cut it if the Cubs expect to have a successful offense and one that takes pressure off the pitching staff.

 

Just think how much more productive the middle of the order would be with either or both of the top two hitters on base more.

[soapy]

I read that this morning too. The thing is, everyone seems to know this (and has for some time) except Dusty. I don't know that this will change that.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

It's like last year when everyone in the world knew Sammy shouldn't have been hitting in the meat of the order. But Dusty refuses to change on things like this. He'd rather wait it out and pray the ship rights itself.

[TB_11]

Bruce Miles is smart.

[B]

Bruce Miles is smart.

 

and Dusty is stubborn.

[dalgreen]

I know it's the "in" thing to only care about OBP for the 1-2 guys in the order. But we'd score a heck of a lot more runs if Burnitz, Barrett and Holla/Dubois could get on base, too. If you look at the Cardinals, Eckstein and Edmonds aren't the only two with high OBP. OBP should be up and down the lineup. I hate Patterson and Perez hitting 1-2, too, but I also hate that we only have three guys in the lineup with good OBP.

[ZZ Thorn]

Nail meet head? The head is the top part of the nail. Nail, meet yourself? Howabout: nail, meet hammer. Cuz really, you're always hitting the hail on the head, unless you hit your thumb.

 

I sure wish CP was Scott Podsednik. I don't think we can win the series without a real leadoff hitter. Master of the obvious here - but we have too many sluggers. LF or CF needs and is probably the easiest place to find the type of player we need.

[Electron Blue]

I know it's the "in" thing to only care about OBP for the 1-2 guys in the order. But we'd score a heck of a lot more runs if Burnitz, Barrett and Holla/Dubois could get on base, too. If you look at the Cardinals, Eckstein and Edmonds aren't the only two with high OBP. OBP should be up and down the lineup. I hate Patterson and Perez hitting 1-2, too, but I also hate that we only have three guys in the lineup with good OBP.

 

That's a good point. We can't make this lineup like the Cards' overnight, though. Moving Patterson and Perez to the bottom of the order is by no means an ideal solution. We don't want the level of production at all, but it's the best the Cubs can do with this set of players, and thus should be done.

[ZZ Thorn]

I know it's the "in" thing to only care about OBP for the 1-2 guys in the order. But we'd score a heck of a lot more runs if Burnitz, Barrett and Holla/Dubois could get on base, too. If you look at the Cardinals, Eckstein and Edmonds aren't the only two with high OBP. OBP should be up and down the lineup. I hate Patterson and Perez hitting 1-2, too, but I also hate that we only have three guys in the lineup with good OBP.

 

I hear ya, but our top 2 are SO BAD at it. I mean terrible, and that's where it's really vital. I wish we had a solid lineup like the Cards too, but if we can fix the first 2 batters that'd net us the biggest returns on our investment.

[cubweiser03]

Not saying i agree with what Dusty is doing but i thought i remember him saying that if he puts corey in the leadoff hopefully that will make him more patient and swing at only good balls. I think that is a good experiement....for a short time to see if corey does make those adjustments. Neifi in the 2 hole. No. Id rather see walker.

[Chocolate Milk]

Nail meet head? The head is the top part of the nail. Nail, meet yourself? Howabout: nail, meet hammer. Cuz really, you're always hitting the hail on the head, unless you hit your thumb.

 

Maybe he's referring to the head of the hammer. Even still, the nail doesn't meet the hammer head, but the other way around. Hrm...

[E.J.]

I guess Dusty didn't read the article. He still has Cpatt and Neifi hitting at the top of the order today. :x

[Roast]

Nail meet head? The head is the top part of the nail. Nail, meet yourself? Howabout: nail, meet hammer. Cuz really, you're always hitting the hail on the head, unless you hit your thumb.

 

Maybe he's referring to the head of the hammer. Even still, the nail doesn't meet the hammer head, but the other way around. Hrm...

 

Yea, I know. But still.

[cheapseats]

Master of the obvious here - but we have too many sluggers. LF or CF needs and is probably the easiest place to find the type of player we need.

 

It's obvious that we have too many sluggers?

 

There are 8 LF's with better OBP than Podsednik (whom I like), and they're all sluggers: Cabrera, Delluci, Luis Gonzalez, Adam Dunn, Jason Bay, Ryan Klesko, Pat Burrell, and Hideki Matsui. All of those guys have double digit homeruns.

 

What type of player do we need? Would you rather have Adam Dunn or Randy Winn? Pat Burrell or Coco Crisp?

 

I'd rather have Brady Clark or Johnny Damon in center than Preston Wilson or Vernon Wells. But if I could have Jim Edmonds or Andruw Jones, I'd snatch them up in a second.

 

I wish all of our guys had high OBP, but they don't. The problem isn't that we have too many sluggers, it's that we're not putting people on base so our sluggers can drive in runs. Dusty should shoulder the blame for that. We'd do better with Walker and Holly or Barrett in the 1 and 2 slots than we'll do with Corey and Neifi.

[johnnyba99]

I'm not trying to start an argument, because I agree with you to an extent. However, I think OBP is beginning to be an over-analyzed stat. The Marlins are 5th in MLB in OBP, but have only scored 335 runs (19 fewer than Cubs), while the White Sox are near the bottom (below Cubs) in OBP and have scored 370 runs (16 more than Cubs). Didn't have time to look at every team, these are just the two that jumped out at me. I already know, you're going to tell me the Red Sox lead MLB in OBP and Runs scored.

 

I guess I'm looking for how can the White Sox score that many more runs than the Cubs and why aren't the Marlins scoring more?

 

I'm tired of D Lee coming up with bases empty myself!

[cheapseats]

The Marlins are 5th in MLB in OBP, but have only scored 335 runs (19 fewer than Cubs), while the White Sox are near the bottom (below Cubs) in OBP and have scored 370 runs (16 more than Cubs).

 

I guess I'm looking for how can the White Sox score that many more runs than the Cubs and why aren't the Marlins scoring more?

 

I'm tired of D Lee coming up with bases empty myself!

 

Good question. Team OBP is probably a misleading stat. Sabermetricians will often argue that batting orders don't matter much over the course of a year, but I'm not so sure about that.

 

Ozzie Guillen bunches his high OBP guys together. A typical White Sox lineup:

 

Podsednik .363

Iguchi .343

Thomas .328

Konerko .353

Rowand .339

Dye .323

Pierzynski .310

Crede .301

Uribe .279

 

Of course Thomas's OBP will go up a little as the season goes on, but as you can see, Ozzie pretty much arranges his lineup in order of descending OBP with the exception of his power hitters in the 3 and 4 spots.

 

Florida's typical lineup (as used in the Cubs series, for exaple):

 

Pierre .306

Castillo .431

Cabrera .398

Delgado .401

Lowell .270

Lo Duca .354

Encarnacion .346

Gonzalez .327

 

Two things jump out: the White Sox have two high OBP guys in front of their power hitters. The Marlins have one. Secondly, Lowell is a big hole in the lineup.

 

Ozzie Guillen might arrange the lineup something like this:

 

Castillo

Lo Duca

Cabrera

Delgado

Encarnacion

Gonzalez

Pierre

Lowell

 

That lineup would undoubtedly score more runs for Florida.

 

The Cubs should be going with something like this:

 

Walker .364

Burnitz .331

Lee .456

Ramirez .363

Holly .316

Barrett .306

Perez .299

Patterson .276

 

Burnitz hitting second might seem odd, but the Cardinals like to hit a slugger in the two spot (Larry Walker right now), and it worked well for Houston with Beltran last year.

 

Burny wouldn't be a traditional 2 hitter, but he doesn't ground into many double plays. He'd be a much better choice than Perez, who is among the league leaders in GIDP.[/url]

[BigbadB]

I'm not trying to start an argument, because I agree with you to an extent. However, I think OBP is beginning to be an over-analyzed stat. The Marlins are 5th in MLB in OBP, but have only scored 335 runs (19 fewer than Cubs), while the White Sox are near the bottom (below Cubs) in OBP and have scored 370 runs (16 more than Cubs). Didn't have time to look at every team, these are just the two that jumped out at me. I already know, you're going to tell me the Red Sox lead MLB in OBP and Runs scored.

 

I guess I'm looking for how can the White Sox score that many more runs than the Cubs and why aren't the Marlins scoring more?

 

I'm tired of D Lee coming up with bases empty myself!

 

Not only are Corey and Neifi two of the worst hitters in our line up right now, but they are also the first two that get to come to the plate and swing a bat against the opposing pitcher.

 

There's something very not right about that picture.

[cheapseats]

Not only are Corey and Neifi two of the worst hitters in our line up right now, but they are also the first two that get to come to the plate and swing a bat against the opposing pitcher.

 

They're not two OF the worst, they ARE the two worst. :evil:

[CubfaninCA]

Not saying i agree with what Dusty is doing but i thought i remember him saying that if he puts corey in the leadoff hopefully that will make him more patient and swing at only good balls. I think that is a good experiement....for a short time to see if corey does make those adjustments. Neifi in the 2 hole. No. Id rather see walker.

 

Perhaps Patterson's just thinking too much up there. Just bat him 6th or 7th and let him hit away. He'll gradually adjust. Hard to change bad habit overnight.

[CubfaninCA]

I'm not trying to start an argument, because I agree with you to an extent. However, I think OBP is beginning to be an over-analyzed stat. The Marlins are 5th in MLB in OBP, but have only scored 335 runs (19 fewer than Cubs), while the White Sox are near the bottom (below Cubs) in OBP and have scored 370 runs (16 more than Cubs). Didn't have time to look at every team, these are just the two that jumped out at me. I already know, you're going to tell me the Red Sox lead MLB in OBP and Runs scored.

 

I guess I'm looking for how can the White Sox score that many more runs than the Cubs and why aren't the Marlins scoring more?

 

I'm tired of D Lee coming up with bases empty myself!

 

Simply the Sox just get more hits when their guys are on base. A third if not more of baseball's situational.

[cheapseats]

 

Simply the Sox just get more hits when their guys are on base. A third if not more of baseball's situational.

 

With runners on:

 

Sox: .342 OBP, .284 AVG

Cubs: .340 OBP, .280 AVG

 

Runners in scoring position:

 

Sox: .341 OBP, .266 AVG

Cubs: .347 OBP, .276 ABG

 

I don't think the Sox get more hits with their guys on base.

[CubfaninCA]

 

Simply the Sox just get more hits when their guys are on base. A third if not more of baseball's situational.

 

With runners on:

 

Sox: .342 OBP, .284 AVG

Cubs: .340 OBP, .280 AVG

 

Runners in scoring position:

 

Sox: .341 OBP, .266 AVG

Cubs: .347 OBP, .276 ABG

 

I don't think the Sox get more hits with their guys on base.

 

Huh. Only stat I see w/ a big disparity between the two teams is stolen bases where the Sox have twice as many. My guess is that they score more first to home and second to home runs due to their speed & get more sac fly runs.

[cheapseats]

Huh. Only stat I see w/ a big disparity between the two teams is stolen bases where the Sox have twice as many. My guess is that they score more first to home and second to home runs due to their speed & get more sac fly runs.

 

The Sox have a slightly better stolen base percentage than the Cubs, but they're barely at the break even point of 70-75%. Anything above that range helps the team, and anything below hurts.

 

The Sox do lead the league in sac flies at 29. The Cubs have 16, so the Sox have 13 more sac flies than the Cubs. The difference in total runs between the two teams is also 13. I don't know where I could find stats on first-home and second-home runs scored, but I doubt that there's a dramatic difference. Paul Konerko leads their team in runs scored, for example, and I doubt he goes first-home very often.

 

I really think the difference is that Ozzie gives his run-producers chances to drive in runs, and Dusty doesn't (and Jack McKeon isn't do a very good job of it for Florida, either).

[AramisRamirez]

what has happened with corey was the absolute worst-case scenario. out of all the things that could have happened to corey patterson this year, this has been the worst possible outcome. his OBP is not even close to a major league starter, let alone a leadoff hitter. his K count is just beyond pathetic, and dusty will pull the switch soon (hopefully).

 

i agree walker hitting 2nd is best. he's always a great at-bat. i believe he was the hardest player to strike out in the AL in 2003. hairston needs to get some reps leading off too. he's our best base stealing threat anyways, why not give him some burn? but if walker was batting in front of derrek lee, lee would have 80 RBI's by now.

 

im gravely concerned with corey. i have no idea what to do with him. im thinking keep him for his glove and just bat him 8th in the lineup. we cant get anything good for him anyways right now. he might turn it around when he has absolutely no expectations.

 

if nomar, woody, and prior all stay healthy it will be an absolute miracle. making the playoffs would be pretty realistic if it happened, but its unlikely given recent history.

[Warpticon]

I'm not trying to start an argument, because I agree with you to an extent. However, I think OBP is beginning to be an over-analyzed stat. The Marlins are 5th in MLB in OBP, but have only scored 335 runs (19 fewer than Cubs), while the White Sox are near the bottom (below Cubs) in OBP and have scored 370 runs (16 more than Cubs). Didn't have time to look at every team, these are just the two that jumped out at me. I already know, you're going to tell me the Red Sox lead MLB in OBP and Runs scored.

 

I guess I'm looking for how can the White Sox score that many more runs than the Cubs and why aren't the Marlins scoring more?

 

I'm tired of D Lee coming up with bases empty myself!

 

Holy crap, a Razorback av. How have I not noticed you in 95 posts?

 

Yeah, OBP is a problem. I'd like to see Cedeno start a lot and hit at the top of the order. Might work, might not, but status quo definitely isn't working, so...