Ben Brown's Role Has Been Set In Stone By His Own Failures

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

Ben Brown's trajectory over the course of 2025 landed as one of the more enigmatic episodes of the 2025 Chicago Cubs. 

On one hand, his mix of an upper-90s fastball and destructive knuckle-curve led to some strong results in matters of balls and strikes. Brown's 25.6 percent strikeout rate sat in the 73rd percentile and his 6.8 percent walk rate finished in the 71st. Of course, on the other hand, he got touched up in the contact game to the tune of a sixth-percentile hard-hit rate (47.3 percent) and a seventh-percentile barrel rate (11.4 percent). That somewhat paradoxical mix left him with an unsightly 5.92 ERA, an eventual demotion to Iowa, and larger questions about his future role as a member of this pitching staff. Namely, the following question: Is there a path toward continued starting opportunities for Ben Brown, or is he destined for relief work in some form? 

While not initially a rotation candidate, a strong spring performance during the exhibition season afforded Brown a legitimate shot at being part of the starting five from 2025's outset. A competition that seemingly came down to he and Colin Rea resulted in Brown winning the job on the heels of the tantalizing stuff wrought by that two-pitch mix. While Rea became a necessity within the rotation in his own right, Brown held onto regular duty for most of the first two months of the season. 

By the end of May, however, Craig Counsell experimented with an opener given Brown's struggles that resulted in starts in which he allowed five, six, six, and eight earned runs. Injuries necessitated continued turns, but Brown found himself out of the starting five permanently by the end of July. From there, he was deployed in relief (primarily as a bulk arm) for the remaining 18 of his 106 1/3 total innings for the year. 

Split between starting and bullpen work, the following is how Brown's numbers shook out in 2025: 

• As a Starter: 75 2/3 IP, 6.30 ERA (4.47 FIP), 23.8 K%, 6.7 BB%, .362 wOBA against
• As a Reliever: 30 2/3 IP, 4.99 ERA (3.10 FIP), 30.5 K%, 6.9 BB%, .300 wOBA against

Despite the innings sample heavily leaning toward the starting side, there's immediately sort of a clear picture as to which path makes more sense for Brown. Such an idea is furthered by a 4.19 ERA the first time facing hitters as a reliever against a 5.70 ERA the first time facing hitters as a starter. His 35.3 percent strikeout rate the first time through the order as a reliever was also his best individual mark in any trip through the order, regardless of role. In relief, Brown was also able to work at an eight-percent dip in hard contact (by FanGraphs' definition), a decreased fly-ball rate, and a subsequent decrease in his homer-to-fly-ball ratio.

In a number of different ways, the numbers pretty easily support Ben Brown making a transition to full-time relief duty. But it's also not as simple as "this guy is performing better in this scenario, so we should drop him into said scenario full time." Instead, the reason for keeping Brown in relief is the same as it's always been: his failure to develop a third pitch. Brown attempted to incorporate a changeup as the season wore on. It was a journey that would prove to be unsuccessful, not only in terms of usage, but outcomes. 

Brown threw the changeup just 4.5 percent of the time in 2025, with its usage peaking at 10 percent in July. By the time he entered regular work out of the bullpen, it dropped to 3.5 and 4.3 percent usage in the season's final two months, respectively. And it's not just a matter of his struggling to incorporate the pitch. It's what happened when he did. 

Even with a smaller sample in its use, Brown's changeup was touched for hard contact exactly 50 percent of the time, with a barrel rate of 20 percent and a fly-ball rate lingering around 30. Obviously, none of those trends represent a recipe for success. On just about every level, Brown struggled to maintain anything effective with that pitch despite the movement he was able to generate with it. The following is the contour of each of Brown's two primary pitches from 2025 (the fastball and the knuckle-curve): 

For the most part, that's exactly how those should look. You want a concentrated area with a pitch like a fastball. Something like a knuckle-curve is going to expand that concentration a little, but the vertical nature of the contour's trend still reads in exactly the way it should. And then you get to the changeup: 

Again, it's not only a matter of Brown's inability to know when to use the pitch, but throwing the pitch at all. It's not that it got touched up by opposing hitters—it's that he had very little command over the pitch at large. Part of that is the nature of trying to add a pitch on the fly. The pitch flailing so erratically doesn't lend itself to much confidence that Brown would be able to do it over the long-term, either.

Without that third pitch coming to fruition, there's no argument for providing Brown with an opportunity to get back into the starting five. The other two pitches would have to be elite. And while the knuckle-curve might offer that (121 Stuff+), the fastball does not (84 Stuff+). Barring some massive development in the lab this winter, it almost becomes impossible to justify as a result. 

If the splits don't say so, the absence of a meaningful third pitch certainly does.

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[Bertz]

A collection of pitchers that Ben Brown outpitched last year as measured by both xFIP (Fangraphs) and DRA (Baseball Prospectus):

Matt Boyd

Cade Horton 

Dylan Cease

Edward Cabrera

Freddy Peralta

Kevin Gausman

Carlos Rodon

Nick Pivetta

Mackenzie Gore

Ranger Suarez

Brown had the peripherals of a guy who could legitimately start game 1 of a playoff series.  He also had the best peripherals of any SP on our team. 

Now obviously peripherals ignore batted ball data, and that's a huge part of the story with Brown.  But as we all know this stuff is really fickle.  In 2025 we can't just point at BABIP and say "luck!" but it is mostly luck.  Some light math says the YoY correlation on barrel rate is .45 and on hard hit rate is .55.  That's not inconsequential but it's also a far far cry from a permanent death sentence.  For instance, among pitchers who pitched 100+ innings in '24 and '25, Carlos Rodon had the worst barrel rate in the league in 2024.  In 2025 he was 93rd.  You need several hundred innings before you can say a pitcher's batted ball outcomes, good or bad, are meaningfully predictive.

I also don't buy the two pitch thing as some sort of crippling problem either.  Setting aside that there's plenty of pitchers that do great with two pitches, it doesn't track with how Brown has primarily struggled.  A limited repertoire is usually associated with heightened struggles deeper in games.  Essentially the times through the order penalty becomes magnified because the pitcher lacks a variety of ways to get outs.  That's why these guys get funneled into relief.  However Brown's biggest struggles were early in games.  Brown had an ERA of 9.00 (!!!) in the first inning, his highest of any inning.  He also had his worst peripherals (an xFIP of 4.38).  That should have absolutely nothing to do with only having two pitches. 

Brown's 3rd time through the order ERA is also pretty inflated (13.19...even in a small sample woof!), but I think it should be noted his peripherals were still strong.  But while I'm clearly quite bullish on him with a little more sample I would buy Brown's going to be limited to being a 5 and dive guy due to his lack of repertoire.

Now I don't say all this to imply we should go into next year with Brown in the rotation.  His struggles seem pretty flukey, but you can't just assume it'll all work out immediately with the clean slate of a new season.  But I do think it's reasonably likely that in the near future he's a SP that we actively want starting games.  So I do think he should be near the front of the line among the depth SPs, whether that's in the bullpen as the long guy (my preference) or at Iowa as the first SP on the speed dial.

[Gjfificifjdej]

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

A collection of pitchers that Ben Brown outpitched last year as measured by both xFIP (Fangraphs) and DRA (Baseball Prospectus):

Matt Boyd

Cade Horton 

Dylan Cease

Edward Cabrera

Freddy Peralta

Kevin Gausman

Carlos Rodon

Nick Pivetta

Mackenzie Gore

Ranger Suarez

Brown had the peripherals of a guy who could legitimately start game 1 of a playoff series.  He also had the best peripherals of any SP on our team. 

Now obviously peripherals ignore batted ball data, and that's a huge part of the story with Brown.  But as we all know this stuff is really fickle.  In 2025 we can't just point at BABIP and say "luck!" but it is mostly luck.  Some light math says the YoY correlation on barrel rate is .45 and on hard hit rate is .55.  That's not inconsequential but it's also a far far cry from a permanent death sentence.  For instance, among pitchers who pitched 100+ innings in '24 and '25, Carlos Rodon had the worst barrel rate in the league in 2024.  In 2025 he was 93rd.  You need several hundred innings before you can say a pitcher's batted ball outcomes, good or bad, are meaningfully predictive.

I also don't buy the two pitch thing as some sort of crippling problem either.  Setting aside that there's plenty of pitchers that do great with two pitches, it doesn't track with how Brown has primarily struggled.  A limited repertoire is usually associated with heightened struggles deeper in games.  Essentially the times through the order penalty becomes magnified because the pitcher lacks a variety of ways to get outs.  That's why these guys get funneled into relief.  However Brown's biggest struggles were early in games.  Brown had an ERA of 9.00 (!!!) in the first inning, his highest of any inning.  He also had his worst peripherals (an xFIP of 4.38).  That should have absolutely nothing to do with only having two pitches. 

Brown's 3rd time through the order ERA is also pretty inflated (13.19...even in a small sample woof!), but I think it should be noted his peripherals were still strong.  But while I'm clearly quite bullish on him with a little more sample I would buy Brown's going to be limited to being a 5 and dive guy due to his lack of repertoire.

Now I don't say all this to imply we should go into next year with Brown in the rotation.  His struggles seem pretty flukey, but you can't just assume it'll all work out immediately with the clean slate of a new season.  But I do think it's reasonably likely that in the near future he's a SP that we actively want starting games.  So I do think he should be near the front of the line among the depth SPs, whether that's in the bullpen as the long guy (my preference) or at Iowa as the first SP on the speed dial.

Nah this can’t be serious, dude is ass

[We Got The Whole 9]

I think his fastball is the bigger problem TBH. Its profile is abysmal. Hitters lick their chops.

[Bertz]

15 minutes ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

Nah this can’t be serious, dude is ass

Well there you have it I guess, case closed

[Transmogrified Tiger]

9 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I think his fastball is the bigger problem TBH. Its profile is abysmal. Hitters lick their chops.

IMO it's less about the shape and more that he has very inconsistently put it where he wants to.  In his 2024 cameo he had some fastball command, in 2025 he had very little. 

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

Nah this can’t be serious, dude is ass

 

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

Well there you have it I guess, case closed

Yep, hard to argue with that analysis. Take all your facts and toss them aside. Brown is just ass. 

[Bertz]

Here's anotber list of names.  From the last 10 years guys who pitched at least 100 IP in a season with an ERA north of 5 and an xFIP south of 4.  11 guys in total, they saw their ERAs drop by 1.43 runs on average YoY.

The way to read the numbers below is:

ERA in year listed / xFIP in year listed / ERA the following year

Putting this in a quote so it doesn't take up as much room

Quote

 

2016:

Tyler Duffey - 6.43/3.89/4.94

2017:

None

2018:

Jon Gray - 5.12/3.47/3.84

Marcus Stroman - 5.54/3.83/3.22

2019:

Tyler Mahle - 5.14/3.99/3.59

2021:

Chris Paddack - 5.07/3.87/4.03

Michael Wacha - 5.05/3.91/3.32

2022

Alex Wood - 5.10/3.41/4.33

Kyle Gibson - 5.05/3.94/4.73

2023

Hunter Brown - 5.09/3.52/3.49

David Peterson - 5.03/3.59/2.90

Taj Bradley - 5.59/3.83/4.11

2024

None

2025

Ben Brown - 5.92/3.56/TBD

Cade Povich - 5.21/3.95/TBD

 

I also want to call out three more names.  These guys just barely missed my criteria, but each one became a star.

2016 Robbie Ray - 4.90/3.45/2.89

2016 Aaron Nola - 4.78/3.08/3.54 

2019 Kevin Gausman - 5.72/4.05/3.62

It's not a slam dunk Brown becomes an impact arm, he could be Chris Paddack or Tyler Duffey or Michael Pineda (not listed above but a 'just missed' who didn't improve).  But throwing the baby out with the bathwater because of some hard contact and BABIP has an opportunity to spectacularly blow up in your face.

[Arlen]

12 hours ago, Bertz said:

A collection of pitchers that Ben Brown outpitched last year as measured by both xFIP (Fangraphs) and DRA (Baseball Prospectus):

Matt Boyd

Cade Horton 

Dylan Cease

Edward Cabrera

Freddy Peralta

Kevin Gausman

Carlos Rodon

Nick Pivetta

Mackenzie Gore

Ranger Suarez

Brown had the peripherals of a guy who could legitimately start game 1 of a playoff series.  He also had the best peripherals of any SP on our team. 

Now obviously peripherals ignore batted ball data, and that's a huge part of the story with Brown.  But as we all know this stuff is really fickle.  In 2025 we can't just point at BABIP and say "luck!" but it is mostly luck.  Some light math says the YoY correlation on barrel rate is .45 and on hard hit rate is .55.  That's not inconsequential but it's also a far far cry from a permanent death sentence.  For instance, among pitchers who pitched 100+ innings in '24 and '25, Carlos Rodon had the worst barrel rate in the league in 2024.  In 2025 he was 93rd.  You need several hundred innings before you can say a pitcher's batted ball outcomes, good or bad, are meaningfully predictive.

I also don't buy the two pitch thing as some sort of crippling problem either.  Setting aside that there's plenty of pitchers that do great with two pitches, it doesn't track with how Brown has primarily struggled.  A limited repertoire is usually associated with heightened struggles deeper in games.  Essentially the times through the order penalty becomes magnified because the pitcher lacks a variety of ways to get outs.  That's why these guys get funneled into relief.  However Brown's biggest struggles were early in games.  Brown had an ERA of 9.00 (!!!) in the first inning, his highest of any inning.  He also had his worst peripherals (an xFIP of 4.38).  That should have absolutely nothing to do with only having two pitches. 

Brown's 3rd time through the order ERA is also pretty inflated (13.19...even in a small sample woof!), but I think it should be noted his peripherals were still strong.  But while I'm clearly quite bullish on him with a little more sample I would buy Brown's going to be limited to being a 5 and dive guy due to his lack of repertoire.

Now I don't say all this to imply we should go into next year with Brown in the rotation.  His struggles seem pretty flukey, but you can't just assume it'll all work out immediately with the clean slate of a new season.  But I do think it's reasonably likely that in the near future he's a SP that we actively want starting games.  So I do think he should be near the front of the line among the depth SPs, whether that's in the bullpen as the long guy (my preference) or at Iowa as the first SP on the speed dial.

Brown is the kind of dude that gets better with age, seems to me, hopefully so with the Cubs.

[We Got The Whole 9]

17 hours ago, Arlen said:

Brown is the kind of dude that gets better with age, seems to me, hopefully so with the Cubs.

Based on?

[Arlen]

4 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Based on?

Based on him "having the stuff," but lacking command and consistency, something that can get much better with practice of his technique. Witness Hottovy's "school."  Seems he may also need to come up with another decent pitch. That takes time. Thanks for asking.