The Cubs Should Give Their 3 Top Hitting Prospects Jobs Next Season, Instead of Spending on a Hitter

[Matthew Trueblood]

With Kyle Tucker officially a free agent and little early indication that the Cubs intend to chase after him with $300 million in hand, the unrest has already begun to percolate. At the GM Meetings in Las Vegas, Jed Hoyer seemed to hint that his focus this winter would be on adding pitching—presumably, at the expense of signing a top-flight hitter like Tucker, Pete Alonso, or Bo Bichette. Understandably, some will view that as a needlessly cheap way to build upon a successful 2025 season.

At some point, though, the Cubs need to put up or shut up, and not in financial terms. The story of their last half-decade has been a constant insistence that they are one of the top teams in the league at scouting and developing talent, in defiance of the balance of the evidence. They use that refrain, in part, as cover for a lack of appropriate investment from ownership, but they also seem to realize that they aren't as strong as they purport to be. Time after time, they put players in the way of ascending top prospects, and it's never a superstar who supersedes the youngster. Rather, Hoyer has repeatedly hedged. When the team was still building toward something (but not yet actually competitive), he signed Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer to stand in the way of Matt Mervis at first base. Last winter, he traded for Ryan Pressly, rather than entrust the closer's role to Porter Hodge.

Hoyer was right not to think Mervis or Hodge were up to the task, but because he still believes that his administration excels at player development, he brought in players who could be easily pushed aside if they did turn out well. Rather than acquire higher-caliber talents who would be locked into their positions for multiple seasons, Hoyer has sought out short-term solutions, hoping that by the end of a one- or two-year deal, the farm system of which he so often boasts will yield the star he really needs.

It hasn't happened, save in a few cases, because the Cubs aren't actually excellent at scouting and development. They're in the middle of the pack in that regard, and they're below-average when it comes to developing pitching, specifically. Because league rules give extra draft picks to rivals and penalize big-market teams like the Cubs more heavily for signing elite free agents (and because the Cubs didn't ruthlessly bottom out during their recent rebuild, amassing high-end first-round picks for multiple seasons), the team never has an above-average capacity for acquiring young talent, either. The result is a farm system that isn't good enough to build a World Series contender without greater investment, either in finding and retaining top staffers, improved technology and player resources, or a much higher big-league payroll.

Now, though, the team does have three young stars under long-term, low-cost team control. Cade Horton rebounded from an injury-ruined 2024 with a breakout campaign and runner-up Rookie of the Year finish in 2025. Michael Busch, whom the Cubs wisely snatched up after the Dodgers had done the lion's share of the developmental work, is the best hitter on the team. Pete Crow-Armstrong remains an enigma at the plate, but his first full season in the majors provided a tantalizing glimpse of his upside. At the very least, he's one of the game's most valuable defensive players.

The team also did well in free agency last year, when they landed Matthew Boyd and Carson Kelly on two-year deals that now look like bargains. Those two players join Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Jameson Taillon and Colin Rea as an expensive but extremely competent supporting cast for the youngsters who have become the loci of value on the roster. The question, at the outset of the winter, is how best to supplement that group.

Hoyer sounds much more dedicated to upgrading his pitching staff than to finding a replacement for the departing Tucker, even though the team was hardly an offensive juggernaut in the second half of 2025. The temptation is to read that as a failure by the Ricketts family (and by Hoyer, whose job is just as much to manage up and make the case for more robust spending as it is to manage down) to make enough money available for the team to be great. Suspicion of the Rickettses and their motives is well-founded, to be sure.

Still, this is the right time for an approach Hoyer eschewed for too long. Perhaps his (not-quite-earned, but that's a separate issue) contract extension in July has emboldened him, or perhaps he's finally tucking into the hard and vital work of turning this team into what he's been begging fans to believe they already are. Either way, he's taking the right tack.

The Cubs should stick with Seiya Suzuki (in right field and at DH, with a fair number of days off against right-handed pitchers), Moisés Ballesteros (as a DH who hardly ever starts against lefties and grabs perhaps 10 starts at catcher), Owen Caissie (right field, swinging over to left sometimes but rarely playing against left-handed starters), and Kevin Alcántara (a platoon partner for Crow-Armstrong in center field, picking up the occasional start in left or right, as well) to supplement their existing group for 2026. Ian Happ can remain the regular left fielder, but have his playing time reduced by roughly 10%. Crow-Armstrong and Suzuki can yield time against same-handed hurlers. Ballesteros, Caissie and Alcántara all appear ready to play in the majors.

Caissie, who will turn 24 next July, has 982 plate appearances with the Iowa Cubs already. He's put up elite exit velocities in the minors, and his plate discipline is strong: he swings and strikes and doesn't expand the zone. He will strike out a lot in the big leagues, but the team needs to be willing to accept that tradeoff and embrace the power he can add to the lineup. The biggest missing ingredient for him, in that regard, is a high pulled fly ball rate, but pulled fly balls aren't the way lefties get to their power best at Wrigley Field, anyway. Caissie's bat speed, swing path and resulting batted-ball profile tell us he can slug plenty well by hitting vicious line drives and lofting the occasional 7-iron into the bleachers in left-center field, where the ball carries much better and the dimensions are friendlier. 

Though the team might wish him to get more playing time at catcher in Triple A, Ballesteros is similarly ripe, having taken nearly 800 plate appearances for the I-Cubs over the last two seasons. He also proved that his swing plays in the majors when called upon late in 2025. It's hit-over-power with him, but again, that's a fine approach for a lefty who calls Wrigley Field home.

Alcántara is the most interesting of the set, though the lowest-probability future regular. He's the same age as Caissie, and a better athlete and defensive player. He has to learn to lift the ball to become a star, and that might never happen—but even without doing it, he might be able to carve out a very good career as a slightly matchup-protected outfield piece. He's played a bit less at Triple A than the other two, but he's still at nearly 600 plate appearances there. It's time to let him test his skills against the best pitchers in the world.

It's unlikely that all three of them succeed, of course. That would be the case even if they all played for the Dodgers, and we could therefore be more confident that they were well-scouted from the jump and better-instructed on their way up the chain in the minor leagues. However, these are three legitimate, high-end offensive prospects, and the sustainable excellence that has eluded the Cubs since World War II—the decade-plus of being a winning team every year, as they should be in this division if competently run—can't come without giving them real chances to prove their mettle.

Hedging time is over. As much as their 2025 playoff push might have led some fans to feel that the Cubs are ascendant in the NL Central, they're unlikely to beat the Brewers and win the division in 2026—let alone to overcome the mighty Dodgers. This team has much hard work left to do, to close the gap between what it is and what it should be. Spending big on pitching this winter makes a world of sense for them, and Hoyer should be applauded for sounding fairly intent on doing so. When it comes to the offense, it's time to let the kids play. If they don't, they're going to end up back in purgatory far too soon.

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[sneakypower]

[squally1313]

2 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Hedging time is over.

This whole proposal is kinda the definition of a hedging plan, no?

[Outshined_One]

3 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

As much as their 2025 playoff push might have led some fans to feel that the Cubs are ascendant in the NL Central, they're unlikely to beat the Brewers and win the division in 2026

Oh, come on.

[Andre and Ryno]

I dunno man.  On the one hand, it's true that in today's game you need several young high performers who are earning the league minimum.  On the other hand, running the September offense out there again has "third place behind the surging Reds" written all over it.

[Bertz]

There is a bit of a delicate balance with the kids.  On the one on paper they have the skillsets to slide right in and fill the current holes on the position player side of the roster.  On the other hand there's probably not enough plate appearances to put everybody in the best position to succeed.  Especially considering how much redundancy is created by these guys likely needing to platoon early on.

So broad strokes I agree give the kids the job, but I think it's time to cash in one of Mo/Caissie.  IMO the play on the position player side is this

- Give Alcantara the RHH 4th outfielder job

- Use one of Caissie/Mo in the inevitable SP trade this winter.  The other gets the open DH/RF job

- Add a veteran RHH 1B/3B

- Jonny Long hangs out at Iowa working on his non 1B defense, and is the first phone call if any corner guy gets hurt or struggles excessively

I've thought about this a lot and I think this is the best way to thread the needle between giving the kids their well earned shots, maximizing their development, and not creating too much exposure for the big league lineup. 

[Rcal10]

54 minutes ago, Bertz said:

There is a bit of a delicate balance with the kids.  On the one on paper they have the skillsets to slide right in and fill the current holes on the position player side of the roster.  On the other hand there's probably not enough plate appearances to put everybody in the best position to succeed.  Especially considering how much redundancy is created by these guys likely needing to platoon early on.

So broad strokes I agree give the kids the job, but I think it's time to cash in one of Mo/Caissie.  IMO the play on the position player side is this

- Give Alcantara the RHH 4th outfielder job

- Use one of Caissie/Mo in the inevitable SP trade this winter.  The other gets the open DH/RF job

- Add a veteran RHH 1B/3B

- Jonny Long hangs out at Iowa working on his non 1B defense, and is the first phone call if any corner guy gets hurt or struggles excessively

I've thought about this a lot and I think this is the best way to thread the needle between giving the kids their well earned shots, maximizing their development, and not creating too much exposure for the big league lineup. 

So if we are talking about adding Imai as a FA and trading for Ryan I love the rotation. This is assuming Shota opts out. Does Cassie, Brown and a decent, not top, 3rd piece get Ryan? Does it get Cabrera? I would be fine with either and it still gives the Cubs plenty of money to spend on that right handed bat who can play 1st and 3rd, plus the pen. But who would that bat be? 

I know you have brought him up before and I agree with you, Bohm would be a good fit for right handed bat to play 1st, 3rd and DH. But I would trade much for him. 

Edited November 13, 2025 by Rcal10