Searching for Value In Nico Hoerner's Contact-Only Bat

[RandallPnkFloyd]

How much value is there in being Luis Arraez? Cubs infielder Nico Hoerner is running some experiments to find out.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

I love a paradox. 

There's something poetic about two things that don't necessarily work together (but also somehow do?). Lucky for me, I spend my time (outside of the classroom, anyway) covering baseball, a sport absolutely dripping with various contradictions. I explored as much fairly recently, in Kyle Tucker's approach to the offspeed pitch, but he's far from the only one plying that trade for the 2025 Chicago Cubs.

Nico Hoerner hasn't always been a paradoxical player, but his evolution has drawn him in that direction. He's the contact-oriented guy with no power to speak of, to the point where even the barrel of the bat remains elusive. Hoerner has largely fit this archetype for most of his career: his best isolated slugging was a mere .129 back in 2022. But he's entrenched himself into that type of skill set even more as time has worn on. 

When Hoerner was selected out of Stanford, this type of player wasn't something entirely expected. In fact, MLB Pipeline's scouting report back in 2019 reported the following: 

Quote

Hoerner excels at putting the bat on the ball, thanks to his uncanny hand-eye coordination, compact right-handed swing and controlled approach. Though he hit just three homers in three years at Stanford, he has strong hands and has driven the ball in his short history with wood bats. He has the sneaky power to hit 15 homers per season, not to mention the patience to draw walks and the solid to plus speed to steal bases.

Fifteen homers per season? Since his arrival at the top level that year, Hoerner topped out at 10 (2022). Since then, he's hit 9 (2023) and 7 (2024), and he has zero on the 2025 campaign thus far. Instead of Ian Kinsler—a common comp for him as a prospect—Hoerner's game has become something more akin to Luis Arraez—with (somehow) even less power.

Don't get it twisted. The contact skills are elite. The rarified air of Hoerner's 2025 contact rate (91.6%) has him in league with Arraez (96.9) and Steven Kwan (92.6). Rookie shortstop Jacob Wilson (92.0) has also shoehorned himself into that elite group, leaving Hoerner's Contact% as the fourth-best in the league. He's more than 1% clear of Milwaukee's Sal Frelick and Arizona's Geraldo Perdomo, who round out the top six. 

That Hoerner finds himself in such a group shouldn't be a surprise. His contact rate has risen, if only by a shred, each year he's been in the league. That comes with the combination of a swing rate that has risen in three consecutive years and a whiff rate that has been falling since 2021. That latter rate (Whiff%) is currently at a career-best 4.2% of all the pitches he sees, leaving him in the 99th percentile. He's simply become one of the best in the business in putting the bat on the baseball. 

But how much value lies there? That is a valid question. Sure, you can make contact all day and put balls in play, but when you've got 8th-percentile bat speed, you're not walking, and you're not driving the ball, what are you adding to the lineup? 

As a hitter, Hoerner is doing exactly what he should be doing to maximize his output. Already without a bunch of swing-and-miss in his game, Hoerner's rare moments of "impact" have come against offspeed pitches. He's attacking those pitches to a greater degree than ever: 

But, to our earlier point, there isn't a ton of impact here. Hoerner's ISO on the season checks in at just .061 and he has yet to record a Statcast Barrel. The lack of bat speed—which has always been present and doesn't appear to be a result of offseason forearm surgery—will likely continue to pin him down from a productivity standpoint. 

Luckily for Hoerner, his speed and baserunning allow him to continue to maintain value. Even with questionable quality-of-contact outcomes, he's still at a .307 average on balls in play thus far. His 15.6% infield hit rate (the percentage of all his ground balls that become infield hits) is a career high. So while he's putting the ball on the ground in the middle of this exceptional contact volume, it isn't quite holding him back from being a fixture on the bases (.327 OBP to date). When that characteristic starts to wane, though, there could be some cause for concern in his ability to reach base as a contact-only guy. It will wane, too. No one had an infield hit rate north of 12.7% last season. 

And luckily for the Cubs at large, it's unlikely that this means anything for the 2025 campaign. The Cubs land on the higher end of the contact spectrum, and with the team generating a bit of power in the bottom half of the order (courtesy of Pete Crow-Armstrong's surge and the combination of Miguel Amaya and Carson Kelly from behind the plate), Hoerner's contact is a boon for overall run production. 

The metrics don't love his skill set from a park-adjusted standpoint. Hoerner's wRC+ is at 92. His OPS+ is at 94. If you're looking at catch-all figures that flatter his overall value, you're likely not going to find it. But for what the Cubs have around him, it's working. The contact volume, combined with what he brings defensively, allow him to maintain value in that grander context.

He's become an increasingly rare archetype among major-league hitters. It's not always going to work, but it'll do for now.

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[JunkyardWalrus]

I believe his best position is as the utility infielder. Let someone with a bat play 2b. Defensive sub, pinch runner. 

Or bat him 8/9. 

Sick of seeing our anemic middle infielders batting 5/6 while PCA and the Catchers, all wildly more productive, bat lower.

 

[JBears79]

I think he fits the makeup of this team. He's a good player, elite defensively at 2nd base and constantly makes contact to move runners or to get on base. Would I rather have a guy with more power at 2nd? Yeah but I dont think Nico is a problem for the Cubs or anything. He's a guy where when he career with the Cubs is done, I will remember it fondly for his makeup, defense and contact approach.

As of now, we dont really have a replacement for him. In the long run, maybe Christian Hernandez or Shaw establish themselves there but he's our best option at the moment.

[CubinNY]

IF, (big if), they extend Tucker and PCA hits for more power and either Alcantara or OWNKC establishes contact and power, Nico is a perfect fit on the team. People sometimes make too much out of the defensive metrics, but having Nico, Swanson, and PCA up the middle makes the pitching better. It's sort of a force multiplier. 

If none of the above happens, they can't keep him. 

[squally1313]

Resets the 'Number of Days Since the Last Article Trashing Our 4 Win Second Baseman Making $12m' counter to zero