The Paradox of Kyle Tucker's Approach and Outcomes on Offspeed Stuff

Given that it's been so long a while since the Chicago Cubs have had a hitter like Kyle Tucker, there really aren't enough superlatives to deploy in discussing his start to the year. Only a handful of hitters have been better. He owns a .301/.410/.578 line, a .277 ISO, and a walk rate (16.0%) that exceeds his strikeout rate (12.0%). His wRC+ checks in at 172. There have been other good hitters throughout the lineup, but Tucker has been every bit the catalyst he was purported to be upon arrival.

Similarly, there are a lot of good things about the way the Cubs approach each plate appearance as a collective. The lineup ranks in the middle of the pack in chase rate, but sits fourth in the league in Contact% (78.5%). And while a number of hitters are contributing to the quality of the team approach (Dansby Swanson, in particular), it's Tucker whom we should be lauding most. 

Not that it's a surprise. The eye test alone tells us that Tucker has already identified what he wants by the time he steps in the box, and the execution has been pretty spectacular to watch unfold each time he steps in. But the numbers are also indicative of exactly that type of player.

Broadly speaking, his ability to avoid hacking outside the zone is a level above that of his colleagues. Tucker's Chase% (16.3) is in the 99th percentile, and his walk rate is in the 94th. Only San Francisco's Matt Chapman (16.2) has a lower swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone. When he does expand, Tucker is making more contact than he did last year, with a 64.3% contact rate that is the highest he's ever had. The awareness he has of the zone itself is allowing him to expand effectively. 

There are also some interesting things happening inside the strike zone, though. Tucker is hacking more in-zone (72.3%), but making less contact (81.6%) than he did a year ago. Part of that speaks to the types of pitches at which he's swinging thus far: 

There's been a big ol' jump, specifically, in Tucker's swinging (and missing) on offspeed pitches. He's missed on 26.7% of swings at offspeed stuff in the zone, compared to 17.1% for breaking balls and 15.8% for heaters. But he's also chasing that pitch at a lower frequency. And we'd be remiss in not noting that opposing pitchers are delivering offspeed pitches with more frequency than before: 19.6% of the time, which would be the highest share he's seen since 2019.

An obvious aim is to limit Tucker's ability to find the barrel while also getting some additional groundballs. One of those has worked, and it's not the first one.

Opposing pitchers would probably fall into despair knowing that offspeed is currently the pitch type against which Tucker's experienced the largest increase in Barrel rates, according to Statcast. Tucker's Barrel% has spiked in general, but a rise from 4.8% vs. offspeed last year to 14.3% this year is vast. There's a tradeoff happening here; he's more aggressive on that pitch (given the higher volume seen) and experiencing more extremes: hard contact, or outright whiffs. He's had 14 batted balls on offspeed stuff, and is hitting .500 (five singles, two doubles, one home run) against them overall: those eight hits, six outs on balls in play, and just two strikeouts. 

The ultimate point here is just in the nuances of plate discipline. We know, in a very general sense, that Tucker has been outstanding, but it hasn't been perfect. What he has done, though, is turn what could have been a rather glaring imperfection into an asset. Pitchers made an adjustment. Tucker made it not matter. 

It'll be interesting to see what the next one looks like.