Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-10-25

[Bertz]

Daniel Palencia at Iowa since last year's all star break:

23 IP, 99 BF, 10 BB, 42 K, 0 HR, 3.13 ERA, and I'm not going to back of the napkin it but a sub 1.50 FIP

I understand waiting until after the schedule gauntlet and/or giving Morgan/Pearson a little more time, but if Palencia's not back up by early May, with an eye towards it being permanent, I'm going to have to seriously object.

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Cristian Hernandez no doubt HR.  That's fun.

 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

 

Cristian really sticking it to the algorithm or whatever 

[Outshined_One]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

The prince that was promised! 

With Hernandez, it's okay to like what other people like.

[Bertz]

BTW Hernandez is the same age as the hitters at the top of this upcoming draft.  So despite having been in the org for a while, if he were to continue whooping ass at South Bend for the next three months he'd be essentially at the exact same point developmentally as a first round college bat.

[CubinNY]

12 hours ago, Bertz said:

 

 

If he keeps this up he's not long for SB

[Jason Ross]

18 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

If he keeps this up he's not long for SB

Maybe. A reminder, that as exciting of a start it's been, he struggled there initially last year. He probably needs a few hundred PA's there to push through the improvements, allow the league to re-adjust to him, and then show staying ability through the progression. I think a mid-year move to Knoxville is on the table, so it depends on how "not long" you meant by. If it's then, then I agree.

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Maybe. A reminder, that as exciting of a start it's been, he struggled there initially last year. He probably needs a few hundred PA's there to push through the improvements, allow the league to re-adjust to him, and then show staying ability through the progression. I think a mid-year move to Knoxville is on the table, so it depends on how "not long" you meant by. If it's then, then I agree.

yeah, it's too early to prognosticate, but if he's blowing up the league for six-eight weeks to start the season.

[JBears79]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Maybe. A reminder, that as exciting of a start it's been, he struggled there initially last year. He probably needs a few hundred PA's there to push through the improvements, allow the league to re-adjust to him, and then show staying ability through the progression. I think a mid-year move to Knoxville is on the table, so it depends on how "not long" you meant by. If it's then, then I agree.

I'm all for the slow development of these guys, Personally, I love that guys like Cassie, Alcantara and Triantos are getting hundreds of AB's in AAA before coming up. I'd like to see the same thing occurring with guys like Hernandez and Rojas. I think Christian Hernandez could be on the same path here. 

If there is one thing I do like that Hoyer does, its that he's patient with development in the upper levels.

I think fans as a collective really undervalue the experience of consistent sustained success after failure at a level because we want these guys to succeed to benefit the pro team. 

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

I'm all for the slow development of these guys, Personally, I love that guys like Cassie, Alcantara and Triantos are getting hundreds of AB's in AAA before coming up. I'd like to see the same thing occurring with guys like Hernandez and Rojas. I think Christian Hernandez could be on the same path here. 

If there is one thing I do like that Hoyer does, its that he's patient with development in the upper levels.

I think fans as a collective really undervalue the experience of consistent sustained success after failure at a level because we want these guys to succeed to benefit the pro team. 

Yeah, there's a time for acceleration and time for patience and the Cubs have hit a good ground for me most of the time there. Generally speaking, I prefer a prospect at the level to go through an age-appropriate learning curve:

1. Success in some sustained form

2. League adjustment to success

3, Success in sustained form after adjustment

I'd say that's usually around a 200 (or so) PA sample...sometimes longer if initial success takes a bit of time. I don't want to "paint-by-numbers" it, and it's not all result based (process > results, IMO) but that's my favorite path for a prospect to take. There are always age-inappropriate levels (if you played in the SEC, Low-A ain't for you long term. If you are crushing, just go to SB, please) and guys who are just hitting so well that it's likely they're just too good for a level, but those are exceptions more-than-the rule. 

[JBears79]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Yeah, there's a time for acceleration and time for patience and the Cubs have hit a good ground for me most of the time there. Generally speaking, I prefer a prospect at the level to go through an age-appropriate learning curve:

1. Success in some sustained form

2. League adjustment to success

3, Success in sustained form after adjustment

I'd say that's usually around a 200 (or so) PA sample...sometimes longer if initial success takes a bit of time. I don't want to "paint-by-numbers" it, and it's not all result based (process > results, IMO) but that's my favorite path for a prospect to take. There are always age-inappropriate levels (if you played in the SEC, Low-A ain't for you long term. If you are crushing, just go to SB, please) and guys who are just hitting so well that it's likely they're just too good for a level, but those are exceptions more-than-the rule. 

Yeah, I agree with this. 200 PA is where I try to break up minor league seasons into thirds I guess.

Take Alcantara for example, he has a pattern of always struggling at a new level early. It's probably a combination of weather and adjustment but once he figures it out, we have also seen a pattern of sustained success and he really takes off.

AAA is the one level I like to see much longer sustained success. Michael Busch is the first name that comes to mind for that strategy. He got, what, some 1200 AAA AB's? I've always wondered how much that has played into his success with the Cubs. I think we really underestimate the value of AAA sometimes.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, JBears79 said:

Yeah, I agree with this. 200 PA is where I try to break up minor league seasons into thirds I guess.

Take Alcantara for example, he has a pattern of always struggling at a new level early. It's probably a combination of weather and adjustment but once he figures it out, we have also seen a pattern of sustained success and he really takes off.

AAA is the one level I like to see much longer sustained success. Michael Busch is the first name that comes to mind for that strategy. He got, what, some 1200 AAA AB's? I've always wondered how much that has played into his success with the Cubs. I think we really underestimate the value of AAA sometimes.

I used to be a Triple-A stan, but I think I've come around that it's once again a level I'm willing to move quick on if the processes are so good. Think of it this way - we've talked a few times around here about "bullets" that pitchers have and not wasting them if you can. I believe very much that Triple-A is becoming more and more of a moving ground for pitching - guys with stuff are finding themselves at MLB levels faster and faster to not waste them. 

I think Triple-A has utility and use, but I'd probably be most willing to move quicker there than elsewhere because the gap between Triple-A and MLB is growing. You can find talented arms there, but if you're hitting well and the processes look good, and there's an opening for fairly consistent PA's? Cut your teeth at the Show.

[JBears79]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I used to be a Triple-A stan, but I think I've come around that it's once again a level I'm willing to move quick on if the processes are so good. Think of it this way - we've talked a few times around here about "bullets" that pitchers have and not wasting them if you can. I believe very much that Triple-A is becoming more and more of a moving ground for pitching - guys with stuff are finding themselves at MLB levels faster and faster to not waste them. 

I think Triple-A has utility and use, but I'd probably be most willing to move quicker there than elsewhere because the gap between Triple-A and MLB is growing. You can find talented arms there, but if you're hitting well and the processes look good, and there's an opening for fairly consistent PA's? Cut your teeth at the Show.

Yeah I'd agree with you on the pitcher side. I didnt make it clear that I'm really just referencing hitters. Hitting and pitching development is so different that I separate them in my mind.

I really believe in the value of AB's at AAA for hitting prospects. Id agree with you about being much more flexible on movement there than anywhere else though.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, JBears79 said:

Yeah I'd agree with you on the pitcher side. I didnt make it clear that I'm really just referencing hitters. Hitting and pitching development is so different that I separate them in my mind.

I really believe in the value of AB's at AAA for hitting prospects. Id agree with you about being much more flexible on movement there than anywhere else though.

Oh, no, I was talking hitters. Because teams are not wanting to waste bullets, teams are moving pitching too fast for hitters to keep up, especially, at that Triple-A level. It's why I'm more willing to move a hitter quickly in Iowa versus, say, South Bend. If you can absorb the rookie hit, having them cut their teeth at the MLB level is probably the better proving ground. Granted, I'd like to see some Triple-A success, but it's also why I'm a fan of keeping Shaw up and moving through the gauntlet for a while even if there are ugly moments (also why I think the Astros need to mercifully send Cam Smith back to the minors, he skipped far too much)

[JBears79]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

Oh, no, I was talking hitters. Because teams are not wanting to waste bullets, teams are moving pitching too fast for hitters to keep up, especially, at that Triple-A level. It's why I'm more willing to move a hitter quickly in Iowa versus, say, South Bend. If you can absorb the rookie hit, having them cut their teeth at the MLB level is probably the better proving ground. Granted, I'd like to see some Triple-A success, but it's also why I'm a fan of keeping Shaw up and moving through the gauntlet for a while even if there are ugly moments (also why I think the Astros need to mercifully send Cam Smith back to the minors, he skipped far too much)

Ahh gotcha. I see what you're saying now. I interpreted your post differently.

Shaw got 131 AB's at AAA and was pretty dominant. I'm also pro keep Shaw at the MLB level but I also dont think hes struggling as much as it looks. I think he's holding his own and consistently has good AB's. His walk rate is great and I think its just a matter of time before he starts barreling the ball. I do think having Shaw up right now is a bit of a necessity that pushed this type of development forward though. Let say we had signed Bregman for example, we are probably watching Shaw dominate AAA right now rather than cut his teeth and come along slowly at the MLB level, similar to what the Cubs did with Bellinger and PCA.

I guess that's just kind of where the eye test comes into play and your scouting idk. I just think there is a lot of value at AAA that might be untapped but I do see the value in your point.

[Jason Ross]

26 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Matt Shaw’s current line:  170/.316/.255, .1 rWAR, 0 fWAR

Can Smith’s current line: .200/.286/.280, .2 rWAR, 0 fWAR

 

I'm not turning this into a Shaw vs Smith debate (Smith is just a good, recent example of someone who skipped Triple-A entirely), but I'll entertain just this much:

Shaw - .212 BABIP, .298 xwOBA, 72% contact rate, 75.4% z-contact rate, 17.5% BB%, 22.8% K%
Smith - .333 BABIP, .216 xwOBA ,61.4$ contact rate, 67% z-contact rate, 7.1% BB%, 35.7 K%

Cam Smith has been awful. I'm rooting for him, but he's been a mess. He does have three hits in his last two games, so maybe he's turning a bit of a corner. I'll admit - I hadn't paid enough attention and missed his last game's line (the two hit affair). But Smith has spent most of the first two weeks looking exactly like he was a Double-A hitter who skipped a few levels. Matt Shaw, while the line hasn't always been great, has mostly held his own. Shaw looks like a rookie, Smith has looked over matched. The processes by which each have gone by their game is in stark contrast. Process matters. It's early, so obviously that can change. 

I'll leave it at that. I truly believe one of these players needs some more time to marinate. If you disagree, you're welcome to that stand point.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I used to be a Triple-A stan, but I think I've come around that it's once again a level I'm willing to move quick on if the processes are so good. Think of it this way - we've talked a few times around here about "bullets" that pitchers have and not wasting them if you can. I believe very much that Triple-A is becoming more and more of a moving ground for pitching - guys with stuff are finding themselves at MLB levels faster and faster to not waste them. 

I think Triple-A has utility and use, but I'd probably be most willing to move quicker there than elsewhere because the gap between Triple-A and MLB is growing. You can find talented arms there, but if you're hitting well and the processes look good, and there's an opening for fairly consistent PA's? Cut your teeth at the Show.

Yes, I do think this is a completely different discussion for pitchers vs. hitters. Pitchers break, get them up to the majors the moment you can - especially if you think their stuff can play in the majors.

[Bertz]

Through 2 starts Cade Horton is allowing a 70.3% contact rate in the strikezone.

As a frame of reference, Jose Siri was the worst in the big leagues last year at 70.8%.  Siri struck out almost 38% of the time.  

[mul21]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Through 2 starts Cade Horton is allowing a 70.3% contact rate in the strikezone.

As a frame of reference, Jose Siri was the worst in the big leagues last year at 70.8%.  Siri struck out almost 38% of the time.  

I had no idea Siri was a hitter until I got to the last sentence and you momentarily had me terrified. 🤣

[chopsx9]

15 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Smith hit one double, took one walk so far and the line jumped to:

.214/.313/.321, 91 wRC, 9.4% BBs, 

Since I’m looking at that game…Kyren Paris is going to be a very good player

You can add a dong to that.