Chicago Cubs 2025 Offseason Top-20 Prospects: No. 2 Cade Horton

[Jason Ross]

The top arm in the Cubs system started hot in 2024, but then a mediocre stint in Triple A and a lat injury derailed his hype train. What should we expect from the fireballing righthander in 2025? Will he bounce back? 

Image courtesy of © MATTIE NERETIN / USA TODAY NETWORK

Today, we continue our review of the Top 20 Chicago Cubs prospects (as voted on by the readers of NSBB). Second-best, by their reckoning, is the team's top pick in the 2022 MLB Draft and a pitcher they hope will soon find a home in the middle of their rotation.

Before you read about Cade Horton, though, don't miss our previous Top 20 Cubs Prospect articles including our look at some honorable mentions, the Cubs' Top Prospects #20-16 and the Top Prospects #15-11. 

#20 - Pedro Ramirez, INF
#19 - Luis Vazquez, INF
#18 - Michael Arias, RP
#17 - Alfonsin Rosario - OF
#16 - Drew Gray, SP
#15 - Jonathon Long, 1B
#14 - Fernando Cruz, SS
#13 - Derniche Valdez, SS
#12 - Alexander Canario, OF
#11 - Cristian Hernandez, SS
#10 - Brandon Birdsell, SP
#9 - Jaxon Wiggins, SP
#8 - Jefferson Rojas
#7 - James Triantos 
#6 - Cam Smith
#5 - Kevin Alcantara, OF
#4 - Moises Ballesteros, C/1B/DH
#3 - Owen Caissie, OF

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2024 Season Review - Cade Horton, SP
Horton's 2024 started like gangbusters. With 18 strikeouts in 16 innings at Tennessee, it was pretty clear that the pitcher was picking up right where he left off the year before. Perhaps more impressive was that, through those four starts, Horton only walked two hitters. On Apr. 27, Horton gave the Smokies five strong frames, striking out six, walking none and surrendering no runs. It would be his highwater mark of the season, and his last start at Double A. 

Getting promoted to Triple-A Iowa at the start of May, it seemed as if the righty was on the precipice of being ready for the biggest stage. All he had to do was continue the good times against International League hitters. Sadly for the pitcher and the Cubs, that did not come to fruition. Horton struggled with his new assignment, especially in the control department. Walks had not been a problem at any level previously, but at Iowa, the pitcher walked 11 opposing batters in 18 innings. He still displayed a penchant for striking hitters out, as he had a 27% strikeout rate, but he also got hit when he came in the zone. Displaying a velocity drop, and with reports of mediocre fastball shape, it was obvious something wasn't right. 

Things went from bad to worse for Horton. His last trip to the mound was on May 29. After that start, in which he was knocked around, we learned of a lat injury. The Cubs, in a combination of rehabbing the injury and an abundance of caution for a pitcher who has a Tommy John surgery on his record already, shut the starting pitcher down for the rest of the season. The lat strain could be attributed to a few causes. It could be that the fastball shape and velocity decline were tied to the lat strain, or it could be that the Cubs were tweaking his pitch grips and mechanics, which caused the strain to begin with. It's also possible that whatever diminution in stuff he suffered was unrelated, of course. Either way, it was a disappointing end to his season. 

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Season Outlook and Scouting Report - ETA: Back Half of 2025
Horton's disjointed, disappointing season has added some fog as we try to project what 2025 could bring for the Cubs' top-ranked pitcher. Throwing fewer than 35 innings last year will make it difficult for the Cubs to consider him getting 140-plus innings on the 2025 campaign. It likely means that the Cubs will have to find ways to limit him (most likely in his buildup) if they want him to contribute in the majors this season. It could also mean that he works as a reliever in 2025, before a transition to the MLB rotation in 2026. We shouldn't fully rule out an MLB rotation inclusion; the Cubs were quick to put Ben Brown into the rotation last year after an injury-shortened season in 2023. However, the Cubs enter 2025 much deeper in pitching talent than last year.

The good news for the Cubs and their pitcher is that Horton is already throwing in Arizona, saying he's fully healthy and over the lat strain. Moving forward, it will be interesting to follow the trends with his fastball shape and velocity. The Cubs are a team of tinkerers, and bringing in Tyler Zombro should only help them tinker with and tweak Horton a bit more. 

I know the initial reaction will be to think a bit doom-and-gloom with Horton moving forward. He'll have injury worries attached to him for a bit, and the velocity drop and fastball shape slump (if that's what it was) is a bit concerning. With that said, there are reasons to remain optimistic on him. With a clean bill of health, a new voice and a new season, he could once again show dominance on the mound. I still think there's a pitcher who can anchor a rotation within Horton, though we are seeing some of the risk that he lands in the bullpen or is neutralized by injuries play out before our very eyes.

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What do you think of Cade Horton's development so far? Do you think we should be worried about the velocity dip? Do you think it's a result of the injury? And when do you think he'll debut? Let us know in the comments below!

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[CubinNY]

Wasn't a lat strain, it was a shoulder injury: subscapularis strain. Although all indications are he's going to have a normal spring training and be ready to go for the start of the season. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

I know that the extension readings were alarmingly poor but I imagine that could be chalked up to injury. To me, I believe he is going to play a significant role late in this season. 

[JBears79]

A successful season for Horton would be too stay healthy for the entire season and build up his innings. I see him contributing from the bullpen post all star break this year with maybe a couple starts hear and there similar to Brown like you said. 

I have Birdsell ahead of him on the depth chart right now, hes earned it. 

I'm eager to see Horton's early velocity reports from ST. Still am extremely bullish on him.

[Jason Ross]

30 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Wasn't a lat strain, it was a shoulder injury: subscapularis strain. Although all indications are he's going to have a normal spring training and be ready to go for the start of the season. 

You know what - I was wrong with the source I used on that! Regardless, I think the overall point remains. The source I went back to look came from an earlier time and that's what I get for not second-sourcing it. 

[Jason Ross]

29 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I know that the extension readings were alarmingly poor but I imagine that could be chalked up to injury. To me, I believe he is going to play a significant role late in this season. 

I do think he'll get some MLB run later. There's too much stuff and the Cubs project to be good enough that I can't see him spending a full year in Iowa. With that said I do think he'll probably be on the Adam Wainwright path of "Bullpen, then rotation in 2026" but how they handled Brown last year makes you wonder "maybe they'll push it a bit"