Levine: Cubs and Marlins Talking Jesus Luzardo

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I could convince myself to have Triantos be the main piece if not much else is going. Not interested in giving up Caissie.

With depth of Brown, Assad, Wicks, Horton and Birdwell, I think if it was Triantos and maybe a small piece, I would do it. If Nardi was added I would be ok with a better second piece. The deal gives the  ins a decent amount of money to spend elsewhere, too. And IF Luzardo can stay healthy and still throw 96 mph, he could give the Cubs a different look from the left side. 

[Tim]

If we could get Luzardo with Triantos as the main piece, I'm doing that deal before the Marlins GM can hang up the phone. 

Jed looks to be Dodger-izing the staff.  Have a few anchor guys you're looking for 150+ innings from. But then a bunch of really good arms to mix and match when they're healthy, and enough of them to give rest and keep them that way.

And a healthy Luzardo is absolutely the kind of guy you want in the rotation for a playoff series.

[Michael Busch Light]

Luzardo is cheap.  Makes sense 

[Jason Ross]

 

[Bertz]

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

Sure hope the Cubs can keep heathy. Also wish he had a 3rd year. But a healthy Luzardo would be amazing. I know… 4 lefties… blah, blah, blah. But he is not like any other lefty on the team. He throws hard. 

[Jason Ross]

I am confident that the Cubs won't need to go to the Caissie level to get this done. This feels like a Triantos + Something not terrible as the return...and I'm okay with that. Luzardo is risky, but looking at his arm angle change, feels like he was suffering from some mechanical mistakes than can be cleaned up. If his elbow isn't going to explode, he's got plenty of upside. 

[CubinNY]

This is a really good move depending on who they have to trade. Really good. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I am confident that the Cubs won't need to go to the Caissie level to get this done. This feels like a Triantos + Something not terrible as the return...and I'm okay with that. Luzardo is risky, but looking at his arm angle change, feels like he was suffering from some mechanical mistakes than can be cleaned up. If his elbow isn't going to explode, he's got plenty of upside. 

I like the move assuming heath. TBH, this actually would free up additional money to improve elsewhere.’They can get a better insurance policy/bench bat for Shaw at 3rd. And they can get a better pen arm. Maybe even Scott. Or if not him maybe 2 pen arms (Minter and Finnegan?). I like the idea of Shaw starting the year at 3rd. But I do want a decent guy in the bench. 

[Tryptamine]

Steele, Shota, Luzardo, Taillon, Boyd

It's not fantastic, but it's pretty solid especially with Assad/Wicks as depth. I really wanted to aim a little higher for the last rotation spot, but it's not bad if it happens to go down. 

[Tim]

22 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Steele, Shota, Luzardo, Taillon, Boyd

It's not fantastic, but it's pretty solid especially with Assad/Wicks as depth. I really wanted to aim a little higher for the last rotation spot, but it's not bad if it happens to go down. 

Just wait 'til we land Sasaki

[Tryptamine]

39 minutes ago, Tim said:

Just wait 'til we land Sasaki

Would certainly provide the upside the rotation needs.

[Bertz]

Not a surprise I'm sure but I will be pretty thrilled with the rotation if we end up with Luzardo.

The Fangraphs projections are going to be pretty middling, and that's not unreasonable.  But I think this is a situation where it's worth keeping in mind the range of outcomes for each player rather than focusing on the median.  Luzardo, Boyd, Wicks, Brown, and Horton are all guys who have "fat tails" on the bell curve of their outcomes.

There will certainly be a point or two where like 4-5 guys are on the IL at once, but broadly having so many options should allow you to heavy up on the guys getting good outcomes and optimize off the guys having bad outcomes.  We won't get lucky enough for it to work out like this, but we would have five guys with star/impact level talent in Steele, Shota, Luzardo, Brown, and Horton.

[gflore34]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

Just wait 'til we land Sasaki

This coupled with a trade for Luzardo and the Cubs are finally acting like the big market team they are, ready to eliminate the rest of the NL Central.  I like it.

[CubinNY]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Not a surprise I'm sure but I will be pretty thrilled with the rotation if we end up with Luzardo.

The Fangraphs projections are going to be pretty middling, and that's not unreasonable.  But I think this is a situation where it's worth keeping in mind the range of outcomes for each player rather than focusing on the median.  Luzardo, Boyd, Wicks, Brown, and Horton are all guys who have "fat tails" on the bell curve of their outcomes.

There will certainly be a point or two where like 4-5 guys are on the IL at once, but broadly having so many options should allow you to heavy up on the guys getting good outcomes and optimize off the guys having bad outcomes.  We won't get lucky enough for it to work out like this, but we would have five guys with star/impact level talent in Steele, Shota, Luzardo, Brown, and Horton.

I'm worried about a regression from Shota due mostly to HRs. I'm not expecting anything from Horton, but he will be a nice surprise if it happens. He certainly has the ability, but I still see him midterm as a late inning reliever. 

That said, this team has so much more potential (fat tail) on the good side than any other team since 2017-18