Mariners Listening On Offers For Right-Hander Luis Castillo

[Brock Beauchamp]

Alex Speier of The Boston Globe mentioned in a recent write-up that the Seattle Mariners are listening when opposing GMs come calling for Luis Castillo.

Castillo turns 32 in a few days. A reliable frontline starter for several years, the righty's ERA took a step backward in 2024 but most of his peripherals suggest the situation is far from dire. He lost roughly half a mile per hour on his pitches but metrics such as Stuff+ and Statcast are conflicted on whether the quality of his pitches changed significantly enough to warrant his ERA dropping to roughly league-average.

Castillo is signed for a little over $24 million per season through 2027 and has a vesting option for 2028 at $25 million.

The Mariners have one of the best rotations in baseball but spend every season trying to scrape together enough runs to reach meaningful October baseball. There is a good chance they end up dealing some of that pitching for long-term lineup help.

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[Tryptamine]

If Cody+ prospect in maybe the Cristian Hernandez level get it done, sure. If Nico is your lead piece, there had better be something valuable coming back. Harry Ford I'm looking at you. 

[harmony]

Blake Snell and Luis Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers.

Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts.

The disparity in their 2024 production cannot be ignored but at what point does recency bias enter the equation? Over the three previous seasons, including Snell’s 2023 Cy Young campaign, Snell posted 9.9 fWAR and 9.7 bWAR in 83 starts while Castillo posted 10.9 fWAR and 11.5 bWAR in 91 starts.

Would Castillo waive his no-trade clause to join the Cubs?

Snell may well have the higher ceiling but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value. Given the deals landed by Snell and other starters this offseason, Castillo’s contract is not underwater.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4 minutes ago, harmony said:

Blake Snell and Luis Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers.

Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts.

The disparity in their 2024 production cannot be ignored but at what point does recency bias enter the equation? Over the three previous seasons, including Snell’s 2023 Cy Young campaign, Snell posted 9.9 fWAR and 9.7 bWAR in 83 starts while Castillo posted 10.9 fWAR and 11.5 bWAR in 91 starts.

Would Castillo waive his no-trade clause to join the Cubs?

Snell may well have the higher ceiling but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value. Given the deals landed by Snell and other starters this offseason, Castillo’s contract is not underwater.

Do you earnestly believe that if Castillo were a free agent right now he'd get a deal similar to Snell's?  Or are you working backwards from being a Mariners fan who wants to have the best possible outcome from their current player/potential trade asset?

[Cuzi]

Castillo would MAYBE get exactly what he has right now, if he were a FA. Blake Snell threw 104 innings last year and put up 0.8 more fWAR than Castillo did throwing 175.1.

Blake Snell is unquestionably the better pitcher right now. His stats have been consistent. Nothing has dipped, in fact his velocity went up last year. Castillo on the other hand has lost movement, velocity, and strikeouts. If you squint you can maybe see a path where Castillo could get $25M, maybe $26M, because of what Severino got, though there's probably a tax on Severino's deal for having to play in a minor league park. So Castillo may not truly be underwater, but he's only breathing from the tip of his nose.

[Rob]

8 minutes ago, harmony said:

Blake Snell and Luis Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers.

Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts.

The disparity in their 2024 production cannot be ignored but at what point does recency bias enter the equation? Over the three previous seasons, including Snell’s 2023 Cy Young campaign, Snell posted 9.9 fWAR and 9.7 bWAR in 83 starts while Castillo posted 10.9 fWAR and 11.5 bWAR in 91 starts.

Would Castillo waive his no-trade clause to join the Cubs?

Snell may well have the higher ceiling but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value. Given the deals landed by Snell and other starters this offseason, Castillo’s contract is not underwater.

That's like arguing that 2016 Felix and 2016 Scherzer had similar values, when the trajectories of the careers were going in opposite directions.

Castillo is 31. His fastball has lost a couple ticks in recent years. His groundball rate has cratered. And he's developing a home run problem despite playing half his games in Safeco.

He's still got some value. I don't want to imply otherwise. But he's not a big threat to be a Cy Young contender like Snell is.

[Cuzi]

Also... why are you saying last 3 years and going from 2021-23?

Last 3 years Snell put up 10.9 fWAR in 412 innings. 5.4 innings a start. 0.143 fWAR per start.

Castillo put up 9.3 fWAR in 522.2 innings. 5.9 innings per start. 0.105 fWAR per start.

Snell has been damn near 50% better than Castillo the last 3 years when he is on the mound.

Edited December 9, 2024 by Cuzi

[Bertz]

Specifically qualifying "young" starters you say?

[harmony]

3 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Also... why are you saying last 3 years and going from 2021-23?

Last 3 years Snell put up 10.9 fWAR in 412 innings. 5.4 innings a start. 0.143 fWAR per start.

Castillo put up 9.3 fWAR in 522.2 innings. 5.9 innings per start. 0.105 fWAR per start.

Snell has been damn near 50% better than Castillo the last 3 years when he is on the mound.

The reference to "the previous three seasons" came directly after the sentence that noted the "disparity in their 2024 production."

As noted: "Snell may well have the higher ceiling but Castillo has been more durable and reliable."

Durability is a scarce commodity among today's starting pitchers. Castillo has averaged 186 innings per season the last two years (and 177 innings over the last four years) while Snell has averaged 142 innings per season the last two years (and 135 over the last four years).

[Michael Busch Light]

On 12/9/2024 at 3:49 PM, Bertz said:

Specifically qualifying "young" starters you say?

The Mariners pretty much need to trade Castillo if they want to field an offense.  Their ownership is maybe worst in the league.  They need to cut his money out to fill 1st and 3rd while reducing payroll 

[Michael Busch Light]

On 12/9/2024 at 4:47 PM, harmony said:

The reference to "the previous three seasons" came directly after the sentence that noted the "disparity in their 2024 production."

As noted: "Snell may well have the higher ceiling but Castillo has been more durable and reliable."

Durability is a scarce commodity among today's starting pitchers. Castillo has averaged 186 innings per season the last two years (and 177 innings over the last four years) while Snell has averaged 142 innings per season the last two years (and 135 over the last four years).

As someone who watches a lot of Mariners Castillo’s stuff ticked way down last year but he does take the ball and has been relatively consistent while typically going deep into games.  The velocity ticked way down last year though.  

[harmony]

22 minutes ago, Michael Busch Light said:

The Mariners pretty much need to trade Castillo if they want to field an offense.  Their ownership is maybe worst in the league.  They need to cut his money out to fill 1st and 3rd while reducing payroll 

This year the Seattle Mariners posted a team wRC+ of 104, including a league-leading wRC+ of 118 after 118. The Cubs this year posted a team wRC+ of 101.

This offseason the Mariners and Cubs look to upgrade their hitting.

[Michael Busch Light]

6 hours ago, harmony said:

This year the Seattle Mariners posted a team wRC+ of 104, including a league-leading wRC+ of 118 after 118. The Cubs this year posted a team wRC+ of 101.

This offseason the Mariners and Cubs look to upgrade their hitting.

I wouldn’t have guessed that.  I still think the Cubs have a much better lineup on paper right now.