Cubs and Mariners Have Discussed Nico Hoerner Trade

[Bertz]

Because of the logical fit, a Mariners/Cubs swap of infielders for starting pitching has been oft discussed in the blog-o-sphere.  Turns out it has been discussed in real life as well.

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The Mariners have also had preliminary talks with the Chicago Cubs about second baseman Nico Hoerner, a Gold Glove winner who offers positional versatility.

The Cubs are seeking proven major league talent in talks for Hoerner, a source said.

The Mariners have cultivated a wealth of talent in their minor league system — they had more prospects (eight) than any MLB team ranked in Baseball America’s Top 100 this summer — and Seattle’s front office has expressed a willingness, an industry source said, to include prospects in the right trade.

No specific names are mentioned from Seattle's side, but it's hard to imagine someone other than one of their young starting pitchers being Jed's target.

One potential wrinkle is that the Mariners seem to prefer addressing first and third base rather than the middle infield.

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Seattle is searching for two new infielders and the Mariners would prefer to add one at each corner.

Would Hoerner move over to third base? Or is Hoerner uniquely talented enough that they would move someone else internally over to the hot corner to accommodate him?

View full rumor

[Bertz]

I am generally anti trading Nico.  That said I do think the Mariners are the one team where you can form a deal that makes sense.  For instance I wrote this up a few weeks ago

Quote

 

I think the problem is that any Nico trade needs to immediately upgrade another area of the team.  For example:

Nico Hoerner (3.5 WAR) + Javier Assad (1.0 WAR) + Prospect Capital

for 

Bryce Miller (2.5 WAR)

plus

An open spot for Matt Shaw (2.0 WAR) and Nico's $11M salary coming free (1.0 WAR)

It makes sense!  Both teams improve and the Mariners get the clear best player in the trade.

 

 

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I am generally anti trading Nico.  That said I do think the Mariners are the one team where you can form a deal that makes sense.  For instance I wrote this up a few weeks ago

 

This is where guy from BTV tells us it needs to be Nico+Shaw+ to get Miller.

[Cuzi]

Hoerner for Castillo + Ford, after Bellinger to the Yankees.

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

…Why would the Cubs want Castillo but also dump two starting position players? 

Pretty sure the answers to those questions have been widely discussed.

They would open up a spot for Shaw, save a little money on Bellinger while adding a TOR pitcher they are after, and then replace Bellingers bat in RF, through either another trade or FA. While picking up one of the best catching prospects in the game that's projected to see time in MLB this year. It doesn't take rocket science to see why that would be appealing.

Edited December 4, 2024 by Cuzi

[KCCub]

Just throwing this here for discussion purposes as I don’t know how reliable this level of information is coming from Jacob. 

 

[Cuzi]

Just now, TomtheBombadil said:

Cubs fans are an increasingly unserious lot. I enjoy that the most common listed options are career LFers multiple years older than Bellinger moving towards being DHs 

You realize that Bellinger isn't MVP Bellinger any more, correct? He's projected as a 2 fWAR player.

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Just throwing this here for discussion purposes as I don’t know how reliable this level of information is coming from Jacob. 

 

Better not be a lot more. Certainly no one in the top 10.

[Cuzi]

6 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Better not be a lot more. Certainly no one in the top 10.

It would most certainly be someone in the top 10. Bryan Woo has 5 more years of control with 2 years of pre-arb. Woo concerns me when even Mariners insiders bring up the concerns over his arm health. I haven't read much into that but that's been a big thing with Woo since he was still in the minors. He had TJS in 2021 and he's recently missed starts due to forearm discomfort so the Mariners limited his innings.

Edited December 4, 2024 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Pretty sure the answers to those questions have been widely discussed.

They would open up a spot for Shaw, save a little money on Bellinger while adding a TOR pitcher they are after, and then replace Bellingers bat in RF, through either another trade or FA. While picking up one of the best catching prospects in the game that's projected to see time in MLB this year. It doesn't take rocket science to see why that would be appealing.

Cubs have a catching prospect ranked higher than Ford who has a major league ETA of 2025. 

[Cuzi]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

Cubs have a catching prospect ranked higher than Ford who has a major league ETA of 2025. 

Ford doesn't have questions about his ability to stay at catcher. Ballesteros is closer to a DH prospect than a catching prospect.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

It would most certainly be someone in the top 10. Bryan Woo has 5 more years of control with 2 years of pre-arb. Woo concerns me when even Mariners insiders bring up the concerns over his arm health. I haven't read much into that but that's been a big thing with Woo since he was still in the minors.

So one side of your argument is he would cost a top 10 prospect along with Nico because he comes with 5 years of control. And then the flip side is the Mariners are worried about his arm health? So why should he then cost that much? Don’t you think other teams also know that could be an issue?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

It would most certainly be someone in the top 10. Bryan Woo has 5 more years of control with 2 years of pre-arb. Woo concerns me when even Mariners insiders bring up the concerns over his arm health. I haven't read much into that but that's been a big thing with Woo since he was still in the minors.

Woo will likely be a super 2 after this year.

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So one side of your argument is he would cost a top 10 prospect along with Nico because he comes with 5 years of control. And then the flip side is the Mariners are worried about his arm health? So why should he then cost that much? Don’t you think other teams also know that could be an issue?

Because of how much control he has and what kind of potential he has. You think teams are out there devaluing their assets because someone might have a pitching injury in the future? Every pitcher in the game would get devalued.

Edited December 4, 2024 by Cuzi

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

You think teams are out there devaluing their assets because someone might have a pitching injury in the future? Every pitcher in the game would get devalued.

When talking about a 5 year time horizon, they are.

[Cuzi]

12 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

When talking about a 5 year time horizon, they are.

So you think teams believe years of control is less valuable? That flies in the face of everything we know about what teams value.

[harmony]

10 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Woo will likely be a super 2 after this year.

Bryan Woo has one year and 121 days of MLB service, according to Baseball Reference.

This year Super Two status was set at two years, 132 days:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/super-two-status-set-at-2-132-years-of-service.html

Regardless, Seattle is unlikely to trade a young, cost-controlled starter for Nico Hoerner whose recovery from flexor tendon surgery may cut into his two years of team control at a guaranteed $23.5 million.

If Hoerner would flop in Seattle -- ala recent second basemen Adam Frazier, Kolten Wong and Jorge Polanco -- the Mariners would be on the hook for $12 million in 2026.

[harmony]

19 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So one side of your argument is he would cost a top 10 prospect along with Nico because he comes with 5 years of control. And then the flip side is the Mariners are worried about his arm health? So why should he then cost that much? Don’t you think other teams also know that could be an issue?

Whose arm health is more concerning: Nico Hoerner's or Bryan Woo's?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, Cuzi said:

So you think teams believe years of control is less valuable? That flies in the face of everything we know about what teams value.

I'm saying that teams don't just draw a straight line of production x years that far into the future for pitchers, more years of control is better than less but on a long enough time horizon injury eating into the value becomes statistically likely.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

8 minutes ago, harmony said:

Bryan Woo has one year and 121 days of MLB service, according to Baseball Reference.

This year Super Two status was set at two years, 132 days:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/super-two-status-set-at-2-132-years-of-service.html

Regardless, Seattle is unlikely to trade a young, cost-controlled starter for Nico Hoerner whose recovery from flexor tendon surgery may cut into his two years of team control at a guaranteed $23.5 million.

If Hoerner would flop in Seattle -- ala recent second basemen Adam Frazier, Kolten Wong and Jorge Polanco -- the Mariners would be on the hook for $12 million in 2026.

4 win second basemen at 10 million AAV aren't easy to come by, the cost is going to hurt if they want to add a proven major leaguer of that caliber.  But yes, if they're concerned about the downside of Hoerner failing to play at the level he's established over the last 4 seasons, they may want to invest in a lesser caliber of player that costs less.  Like they did when they acquired Adam Frazier, Kolten Wong, and Jorge Polanco.

 

6 minutes ago, harmony said:

Whose arm health is more concerning: Nico Hoerner's or Bryan Woo's?

Thank you for asking, Bryan Woo's.

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, harmony said:

Bryan Woo has one year and 121 days of MLB service, according to Baseball Reference.

This year Super Two status was set at two years, 132 days:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/super-two-status-set-at-2-132-years-of-service.html

Regardless, Seattle is unlikely to trade a young, cost-controlled starter for Nico Hoerner whose recovery from flexor tendon surgery may cut into his two years of team control at a guaranteed $23.5 million.

If Hoerner would flop in Seattle -- ala recent second basemen Adam Frazier, Kolten Wong and Jorge Polanco -- the Mariners would be on the hook for $12 million in 2026.

This is a really odd take. Why would he suddenly flop? Frazier was coming off 1 good year but otherwise was incredibly mediocre. Kolton Wong is 34 years old. Meanwhile Nico has been consistently a 4 fWAR the last 3 years worth 12.8 fWAR over that span and is 27 years old. Not sure why he'd suddenly flop. 

[Tryptamine]

13 minutes ago, harmony said:

Whose arm health is more concerning: Nico Hoerner's or Bryan Woo's?

The guy who does nothing but throw for a living and not the guy who has the shortest throw possible to 1B would be a pretty good guess.

[Stratos]

58 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Just throwing this here for discussion purposes as I don’t know how reliable this level of information is coming from Jacob. 

 

https://images.app.goo.gl/XTxB7ZvSBcZRxk6D9

[Bertz]

I'm not an authority, but I wrote up Miller and Woo about a month ago

Both are very very fun arms.  I like Miller more than Woo, but Woo has a lot of big fans too (I know Eno Sarris for instance lusts after him quite a bit).

 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Whose arm health is more concerning: Nico Hoerner's or Bryan Woo's?

If you read the post I referred to you would know it was Woo’s arm the original poster said the Mariners had concerns about.