Chicago Cubs Free-Agent Target Tracker: Max Fried

[Brandon Glick]

The ace lefty is coming off another great season in which he proved he was healthy once again. Does he make sense as the third southpaw ace in the Cubs’ rotation?

Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Much like our breakdown of Corbin Burnes’ fit with the Cubs, I’m going into this piece operating under four assumptions: the Cubs want to add a high-level starter from outside the organization; they’re willing to accept any qualifying offer penalties associated with said starting pitcher; they won’t win the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes; and Jed Hoyer is willing to spend a lot of money on a pitcher in his 30s. None of those assumptions are safe to make (least of all the last one), but it isn’t hard to imagine the Cubs bending a couple of their usual free agent rules for a player like Max Fried.

Fried has been the ace of the Atlanta Braves for the last half-decade. He's posted a 3.07 ERA in 884 1/3 innings since debuting in 2017, so someone is going to pony up for his services this offseason. Exactly how large the contract he gets is in question. Some pundits have projected deals as long as seven years, with annual salary numbers in the $25-$30 million range being floated. Fried probably won't crack the $200-million barrier—not with Blake Snell, Burnes, and Sasaki clogging up the free-agent marketplace, not to mention cheaper alternatives like Garrett Crochet on the trade front—but something along the lines of what Jon Lester got in 2014 (six years, $155 million) is probably in the ballpark.

The southpaw does come with a few flaws, including injuries that cost him large chunks of the 2018 and 2023 seasons. His forearm issues from last year are still a concern, especially since he'll be 31 on Opening Day 2025, but his 174-inning showing in 2024 proves that Fried is still capable of being a workhorse.

Over his career, Fried has earned that label, pitching 165 or more innings in every season since 2019 (besides 2023, due to injury, and 2020 due to the pandemic-shortened schedule). He's also thrown six complete games and four shutouts in that time. Pair his capacity for working deep in games with a career 140 ERA+, 23.9% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate, and huge 53.7% groundball rate (including a career-high 58.2% figure this past season), and you have the profile of a pitcher who should both age gracefully and remain dominant when handed the ball.

As I said back in that Burnes primer: “The Cubs very clearly fit that category of teams that need another starter, as rookie import Shota Imanaga—the team’s MVP for the 2024 season—was the only pitcher who remained reliable and healthy for the entirety of the 2024 campaign. Justin Steele still clearly has ace potential and should be a fixture on the North Side for years to come, but he failed to crack 135 innings pitched this year while dealing with elbow and hamstring injuries that bookended his season. Javier Assad proved himself worthy of a long-term spot in the rotation, but he blew past his career high in innings with 147 this year, and he declined in September as that workload piled up. Jameson Taillon still has two years on his contract and certainly had a strong second season with the team, but some of his success has to be chalked up to the pitcher-friendly way that Wrigley Field played all season.”

Even with quality depth that includes names like Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Cade Horton, and Brandon Birdsell, the Cubs could use a surefire guy to pair with Imanaga and Steele. Adding Fried would mean putting three lefties at the top of the rotation, but the presence of Taillon, Assad, and perhaps Horton would lessen any worries about the North Siders becoming too southpaw-heavy.

The aforementioned Lester contract also serves as a convenient touchstone for where the Cubs are these days. Back in 2014, the Cubs went 73-89, finishing last in the NL Central. However, Anthony Rizzo had established himself as a regular, Javier Báez had made his much-anticipated debut, and a wave of über-talented prospects like Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber were on their way. The team surprisingly won the Lester sweepstakes in free agency, announcing to the rest of the baseball world that they were ready to emerge from their rebuild.

Now, a decade later, the Cubs finished the season 83-79 and in second place in the division. Michael Busch has established himself at the cold corner. Pete Crow-Armstrong has made his much-anticipated debut and is locked in as the starting center fielder. A wave of talented prospects, including Matt Shaw and Owen Caissie, are on their way. Feasibly, the team can win the Max Fried sweepstakes in free agency, officially putting this latest rebuild behind them.

It’s poetic when things mirror each other, isn’t it? Of course, signing Fried doesn’t mean the Cubs will win the 2026 World Series, but it does get them closer to that goal. If his high price tag and status as a qualifying offer recipient don’t scare off the Cubs, there are a lot of reasons to like the idea of Fried pitching in the Friendly Confines.

And, hey, perhaps Dansby Swanson can convince his 2021 World Series champion teammate to make the same move from Atlanta to Chicago.

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[CubinNY]

Hasn't Jed already ruled out Burns and Fried? 

[Rcal10]

53 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Hasn't Jed already ruled out Burns and Fried? 

I know he did with Burnes. I am not sure about Fried. But I doubt he signs him. 

[Jason Ross]

Jed hasn't specifically, or publicly, ruled out anyone. What we do have is a few reports, some from people close to the Cubs like Mooney/Sharma, that highly suggests that Corban Burnes, Juan Soto and almost assuredly, includes Max Fried, are not players the Cubs will pursuit. 

"Mid-tier" has been brought up a handful of times to describe which waters the Cubs will be swimming in when it comes to free agency. While I think there's a decent gap between Burnes and Fried, I don't think it's enough where anyone suggests Fried is mid-tier in the way that the difference between Soto and Santander has pushed him more to the mid-tier. (I don't mean any of this as a dirty word, either, as the Cubs have the ability to make trades to address the top-end of their needs). I would be very surprised outside of agent leaks to hear that the Cubs were seriously going after Max Fried unless for some weird reason his entire market dried up. 

[Bertz]

Nah, the Athletic guys pretty affirmatively kept Fried in bounds

Quote

 

There is no track record or indication that Hoyer’s group and the Ricketts family will go to the top of the market for Corbin Burnes, a Scott Boras client who can command the long-term megadeal that typically involves an aggressive owner. Blake Snell is also represented by Boras, but the bigger hurdle for the Cubs may be his pitching profile. Snell is supremely talented and a two-time Cy Young Award winner, though his command, year-to-year variance and overall reliability will influence the club’s evaluation.

Max Fried would check several boxes as a consistent, left-handed, All-Star pitcher who won a World Series with the Atlanta Braves. There will obviously be limits to the Cubs’ pursuit of pitching. The club could pivot and use some trade chips, or focus on that next tier of free agents since the deals for Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga have worked out well. But beyond the Lester example, it’s been nearly seven years since Yu Darvish signed his $126 million contract with the Cubs. By this point, closing a nine-figure deal for a pitcher would not be unreasonable.

 

 

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Nah, the Athletic guys pretty affirmatively kept Fried in bounds

 

That is what I thought. That said, IMO Fried is highly unlikely. 

[Jason Ross]

28 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Nah, the Athletic guys pretty affirmatively kept Fried in bounds

 

Ah, I guess I misinterpreted that then! Alright!

[CubinNY]

54 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Nah, the Athletic guys pretty affirmatively kept Fried in bounds

 

you're going to have to provide some quotes. 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

you're going to have to provide some quotes. 

Were there quotes explicitly ruling out Fried?

[CubinNY]

8 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Were there quotes explicitly ruling out Fried?

There were quotes specifically ruling in Fried?  The gist of all the articles is 1) They are not going to spend big on FA pitching and look to make trades, 2) They are looking "mid-tier", and 3) Fried has QO that Jed doesn't like. That is not ruling out Fried by name and reasonable people can disagree, but it's not hard to connect the dots

Edited November 19, 2024 by CubinNY

[squally1313]

32 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

There were quotes specifically ruling in Fried?  The gist of all the articles is 1) They are not going to spend big on FA pitching and look to make trades, 2) They are looking "mid-tier", and 3) Fried has QO that Jed doesn't like. That is not ruling out Fried by name and reasonable people can disagree, but it's not hard to connect the dots

Just wanted to know what the rules are here. We're taking general statements, not direct quotes from management, and collectively deciding amongst ourselves who the front office is ruling out and then requiring 'quotes' to consider a certain player an option again? Bertz included a blurb from one of the Athletic articles speaking specifically about Fried checking 'several boxes' and how a nine figure deal 'would not be unreasonable'.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There were also like 3 national guys who specifically name checked Fried to the Cubs, and IIRC not in a list of 5-7 suitors either

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

There were also like 3 national guys who specifically name checked Fried to the Cubs, and IIRC not in a list of 5-7 suitors either

The same people have the Cubs linked to Burns too, so...

[Tryptamine]

At this point I have Kikuchi as the odds on favorite to be the FA signing.

[LBiittner]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

At this point I have Kikuchi as the odds on favorite to be the FA signing.

2yr @ $40m ?

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

2yr @ $40m ?

My guess would be 3/55

[LBiittner]

The athletic has 3@63. Mlbtraderumor 3@60 or vice versa

Edited November 20, 2024 by LBiittner