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Much like our breakdown of Corbin Burnes’ fit with the Cubs, I’m going into this piece operating under four assumptions: the Cubs want to add a high-level starter from outside the organization; they’re willing to accept any qualifying offer penalties associated with said starting pitcher; they won’t win the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes; and Jed Hoyer is willing to spend a lot of money on a pitcher in his 30s. None of those assumptions are safe to make (least of all the last one), but it isn’t hard to imagine the Cubs bending a couple of their usual free agent rules for a player like Max Fried.
Fried has been the ace of the Atlanta Braves for the last half-decade. He's posted a 3.07 ERA in 884 1/3 innings since debuting in 2017, so someone is going to pony up for his services this offseason. Exactly how large the contract he gets is in question. Some pundits have projected deals as long as seven years, with annual salary numbers in the $25-$30 million range being floated. Fried probably won't crack the $200-million barrier—not with Blake Snell, Burnes, and Sasaki clogging up the free-agent marketplace, not to mention cheaper alternatives like Garrett Crochet on the trade front—but something along the lines of what Jon Lester got in 2014 (six years, $155 million) is probably in the ballpark.
The southpaw does come with a few flaws, including injuries that cost him large chunks of the 2018 and 2023 seasons. His forearm issues from last year are still a concern, especially since he'll be 31 on Opening Day 2025, but his 174-inning showing in 2024 proves that Fried is still capable of being a workhorse.
Over his career, Fried has earned that label, pitching 165 or more innings in every season since 2019 (besides 2023, due to injury, and 2020 due to the pandemic-shortened schedule). He's also thrown six complete games and four shutouts in that time. Pair his capacity for working deep in games with a career 140 ERA+, 23.9% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate, and huge 53.7% groundball rate (including a career-high 58.2% figure this past season), and you have the profile of a pitcher who should both age gracefully and remain dominant when handed the ball.
As I said back in that Burnes primer: “The Cubs very clearly fit that category of teams that need another starter, as rookie import Shota Imanaga—the team’s MVP for the 2024 season—was the only pitcher who remained reliable and healthy for the entirety of the 2024 campaign. Justin Steele still clearly has ace potential and should be a fixture on the North Side for years to come, but he failed to crack 135 innings pitched this year while dealing with elbow and hamstring injuries that bookended his season. Javier Assad proved himself worthy of a long-term spot in the rotation, but he blew past his career high in innings with 147 this year, and he declined in September as that workload piled up. Jameson Taillon still has two years on his contract and certainly had a strong second season with the team, but some of his success has to be chalked up to the pitcher-friendly way that Wrigley Field played all season.”
Even with quality depth that includes names like Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Cade Horton, and Brandon Birdsell, the Cubs could use a surefire guy to pair with Imanaga and Steele. Adding Fried would mean putting three lefties at the top of the rotation, but the presence of Taillon, Assad, and perhaps Horton would lessen any worries about the North Siders becoming too southpaw-heavy.
The aforementioned Lester contract also serves as a convenient touchstone for where the Cubs are these days. Back in 2014, the Cubs went 73-89, finishing last in the NL Central. However, Anthony Rizzo had established himself as a regular, Javier Báez had made his much-anticipated debut, and a wave of über-talented prospects like Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber were on their way. The team surprisingly won the Lester sweepstakes in free agency, announcing to the rest of the baseball world that they were ready to emerge from their rebuild.
Now, a decade later, the Cubs finished the season 83-79 and in second place in the division. Michael Busch has established himself at the cold corner. Pete Crow-Armstrong has made his much-anticipated debut and is locked in as the starting center fielder. A wave of talented prospects, including Matt Shaw and Owen Caissie, are on their way. Feasibly, the team can win the Max Fried sweepstakes in free agency, officially putting this latest rebuild behind them.
It’s poetic when things mirror each other, isn’t it? Of course, signing Fried doesn’t mean the Cubs will win the 2026 World Series, but it does get them closer to that goal. If his high price tag and status as a qualifying offer recipient don’t scare off the Cubs, there are a lot of reasons to like the idea of Fried pitching in the Friendly Confines.
And, hey, perhaps Dansby Swanson can convince his 2021 World Series champion teammate to make the same move from Atlanta to Chicago.
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