Sharma and Mooney from the GM Meetings

[Bertz]

Lot of good rumors here, some notables:

- Team is looking big at SP, but Burnes (price) and Snell (style) are unlikely.  Fried makes sense, but they will also look at trades and may potentially drop down to the next tier (citing how well Taillon and Imanaga have worked out).  Seems pretty clear if Jed takes a big swing it will be at SP

- Cubs are looking to add a catcher, but it's going to be a vet to pair with Amaya, not an everyday option.  Kelly, d'Arnaud, and Jansen all get namechecked.  Part of the impotice here is an increasing belief that with time Ballesteros can stick behind the plate

- On the bullpen, the name of the game appears to be depth rather than a big swing for a closer

Quote

“It’s almost like assuming in April that three guys are going to go down,” Hoyer said.

- The team doesn't seem super worried about Hoerner's surgery.  They're not going to bring in a starter, instead likely "a left-handed-hitting utility guy who could move around an infield that features Swanson, Hoerner and Isaac Paredes."

- Nothing else about the offense was mentioned.  I would really doubt anyone of substance gets added.  IMO set expectations at like a Ryan Mountcastle type as a direct 1:1 replacement for Wisdom.  

[Jason Ross]

If they drop down the next tier, I think Hoyer is playing with a lot of fire. His job is on the line. Maybe he can get another Imanaga or a Taillon And listen, Taillon's been fine. But he also had a 4.16 xFIP, was worth 2.3 fWAR and had a K% that dipped under 20%. He's a useful addition to the rotation, but I think the Cubs need more than a useful addition here. Time to add something in the tier that hurts.

If it's with a top-tier SP? Okay. If it's in lieu of...Hoyer's going to have to really hit a homerun there. Or there's probably going to be a thread about hiring our next VP of baseball ops in 2025 at some point.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I want to horsefeathers slap Jed and Carter if that's what they do. Move some of those damn prospects you dimwits. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

If they drop down the next tier, I think Hoyer is playing with a lot of fire. His job is on the line. Maybe he can get another Imanaga or a Taillon And listen, Taillon's been fine. But he also had a 4.16 xFIP, was worth 2.3 fWAR and had a K% that dipped under 20%. He's a useful addition to the rotation, but I think the Cubs need more than a useful addition here. Time to add something in the tier that hurts.

If it's with a top-tier SP? Okay. If it's in lieu of...Hoyer's going to have to really hit a homerun there. Or there's probably going to be a thread about hiring our next VP of baseball ops in 2025 at some point.

Probably depends on the specifics.  The distribution of possible 2025 performance between say, Fried and Eovaldi has a lot of overlap.  But the difference between Burnes and Flaherty is a lot wider.

But I think the larger playing with fire point is true, especially if they want to keep lanes clear for the prospects and their offensive side acquisitions are like Willi Castro and a Mountcastle type.  They're gearing up to make a SP the most impactful acquisition of the offseason, and I think that's right on the merits.  But with Bellinger's opt in, even with a little creativity that SP acquisition has to come good, regardless of who it is or the price paid.

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

If they drop down the next tier, I think Hoyer is playing with a lot of fire. His job is on the line. Maybe he can get another Imanaga or a Taillon And listen, Taillon's been fine. But he also had a 4.16 xFIP, was worth 2.3 fWAR and had a K% that dipped under 20%. He's a useful addition to the rotation, but I think the Cubs need more than a useful addition here. Time to add something in the tier that hurts.

If it's with a top-tier SP? Okay. If it's in lieu of...Hoyer's going to have to really hit a homerun there. Or there's probably going to be a thread about hiring our next VP of baseball ops in 2025 at some point.

It's interesting because this year that next tier is really robust.  Flaherty. Kikuchi, and Eovaldi are all very fun arms, and Kikuchi in particular I think has a chance to pull an Imanaga and just way out pitch his contract.

But if you're not going top of market on a SP, and you're planning a fairly light touch on the position player side, and you fundamentally don't like spending big resources on the bullpen...feels like you've run out of places to improve.  Maybe a second SP?  Kikuchi and Bieber for instance?

[We Got The Whole 9]

Read an article speculating the Rangers may look to move Seager. I would be all over that personally. I know he's had a lot of time off over the years but is pretty much the best we can possibly hope for as far as hitting and defense from an IF and he's LH.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Probably depends on the specifics.  The distribution of possible 2025 performance between say, Fried and Eovaldi has a lot of overlap.  But the difference between Burnes and Flaherty is a lot wider.

But I think the larger playing with fire point is true, especially if they want to keep lanes clear for the prospects and their offensive side acquisitions are like Willi Castro and a Mountcastle type.  They're gearing up to make a SP the most impactful acquisition of the offseason, and I think that's right on the merits.  But with Bellinger's opt in, even with a little creativity that SP acquisition has to come good, regardless of who it is or the price paid.

Yep. I think now is the time to kind of "value be damned" it, when it comes to a SP. Maybe Blake Snell isn't your favorite style, or Max Fried makes the rotation too left handed or something...but I'm pretty confident both of those guys are going to be pretty good next yar. Snell's going to have some inconsistencies, Fried had a little bit of a nerve thing...but they'll both likely be top-2 guys in most rotations. Garrett Crochet costs a lot of prospects and has some health stuff, but when he's healthy, I'm pretty damn sure he's good. 

Maybe Jack Flaherty is a guy like that. Maybe Sugano is. And maybe they'll cost less. And you'll keep your prospects. And your flexibility. But where Hoyer's job is...where the Cubs are...pay up a bit. Get something you know is going to be pretty damn good outside of weird outcomes. 

Now isn't the time to be cute. Make the team good.

[jersey cubs fan]

Pretty hysterical lede, citing the aggressive top of market signing of Lester that went down as greatest free agent signing in Chicago history, following with obvious need to address top end starter this offseason, 7 years after they last did it with Darvish. 
 

and then, “well these top guys are out of reach this year.”

 

A more cowardly statement has never been issued:

“How do you allocate those dollars as safely as you can?” Hoyer said. 

Edited November 6, 2024 by jersey cubs fan

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It's interesting because this year that next tier is really robust.  Flaherty. Kikuchi, and Eovaldi are all very fun arms, and Kikuchi in particular I think has a chance to pull an Imanaga and just way out pitch his contract.

But if you're not going top of market on a SP, and you're planning a fairly light touch on the position player side, and you fundamentally don't like spending big resources on the bullpen...feels like you've run out of places to improve.  Maybe a second SP?  Kikuchi and Bieber for instance?

Yeah, the 2nd tier is pretty cool this year. Last year that 3rd tier was strong and this year the 2nd tier is. Both are tiers I feel like Hoyer would be good in. With that said, I think the assignment this year is "just be pretty damn good". They don't have a lot of holes - they need a SP, they need a back end RP, they need a catcher. They have so much locked in, that their paths are pretty straightforward. 

I hope Hoyer is forced to go outside of those tiers this year. One, because I think he needs to show a bit of a killer instinct at some point for me to feel 100% comfortable with him. That could be a FA or a trade...but something that hurts you a bit. Like a Kikuchi/Bieber addition could be fine, but feels like you need a decent injury relapse or fall off from Bieber coming back (who already was middling on the velo for part of his career) to really make you go "is that going to be enough?". And I think Kikchui is kind of cool on a 3 year deal. Just think that now's the time for the Cubs to really impact their team.

[UMFan83]

The Cubs offense was so dynamic and consistent last year that it makes sense that they won't do much offensively

/s

Time to look at GM replacements for next offseason.

[Bertz]

I think if you wanted to take this as gospel, combine into one coherent offseason, plus use inference to fill in some gaps, it would look something like this:

- Sign Max Fried for 6-7 years and ~$25M per

- Beef up the bench, let's say a trade for Utility Guy Willi Castro, sign Ryan Mountcastle after he gets non tendered for the Patrick Wisdom role, and sign Danny Jansen to pair with Amaya behind the plate.  Roughly ~$20M in salary added

- Add three relievers of note.  Something like trade with the Giants for Camilo Doval. trade Mike Tauchman to the Guardians for setup man Tim Herrin, and re-sign Jorge Lopez.  $10-15M added

The Good: This team is preposterously deep.  There is redundancy, generally multiple layers, everywhere on the diamond.  What we have chilling at Iowa only adds to that.  Also by not spending that premium prospect capital. the team still has those bullets available for the summer (either via callup or trade).  The rotation, particularly the top, compares favorably with essentially any others besides the Mariners, Phillies, and healthy Dodgers.  

The Bad:  I hope you subscribe to the weak link theory to roster building.  The position player group is strong and deep, but there's no hitter with an over/under on dongs north of about 25.  The guys who rack up a ton of WAR do so via defense.  On the pitching staff similarly there is a lot to like but no fire-breathing ace or closer unless one of the kids steps up.

[Tryptamine]

With Hoyer, whatever you think is realistic, drop it down at least one more tier and that's where he's going to be. My guess is he's going to end up shopping in the Sean Manaea/Yusei Kikuchi/Luis Severino tier. At catcher, rather than Danny Jansen, you're looking more at Carson Kelly. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

19 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think if you wanted to take this as gospel, combine into one coherent offseason, plus use inference to fill in some gaps, it would look something like this:

- Sign Max Fried for 6-7 years and ~$25M per

- Beef up the bench, let's say a trade for Utility Guy Willi Castro, sign Ryan Mountcastle after he gets non tendered for the Patrick Wisdom role, and sign Danny Jansen to pair with Amaya behind the plate.  Roughly ~$20M in salary added

- Add three relievers of note.  Something like trade with the Giants for Camilo Doval. trade Mike Tauchman to the Guardians for setup man Tim Herrin, and re-sign Jorge Lopez.  $10-15M added

The Good: This team is preposterously deep.  There is redundancy, generally multiple layers, everywhere on the diamond.  What we have chilling at Iowa only adds to that.  Also by not spending that premium prospect capital. the team still has those bullets available for the summer (either via callup or trade).  The rotation, particularly the top, compares favorably with essentially any others besides the Mariners, Phillies, and healthy Dodgers.  

The Bad:  I hope you subscribe to the weak link theory to roster building.  The position player group is strong and deep, but there's no hitter with an over/under on dongs north of about 25.  The guys who rack up a ton of WAR do so via defense.  On the pitching staff similarly there is a lot to like but no fire-breathing ace or closer unless one of the kids steps up.

 I think this is probably as good an estimate as we can have.  I especially am becoming convinced that a Willi Castro trade makes a lot of sense for a number of reasons given their likely focus.

I'm curious on 2 things related to this though.  One is what is the Fried contingency?  Maybe it's boring and it's just Eovaldi to save a couple bucks that goes to marginally better RP, but I could be talked into a number of trades that flip the calculus for spending on other holes.  The other is what creative trade might be coming that could change the way those slots net out? Jed was pretty early on the trend of trading for multi-year solutions at the deadline and has been unafraid of selling controlled players to do it repeatedly.  Busch was obviously a logical but unexpected move.  Is there another one in that vein coming?  Does he go for Castro and Duran in one deal maybe?  Is it a less creative but still unexpected like landing Crochet?

[Jason Ross]

27 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think if you wanted to take this as gospel, combine into one coherent offseason, plus use inference to fill in some gaps, it would look something like this:

- Sign Max Fried for 6-7 years and ~$25M per

- Beef up the bench, let's say a trade for Utility Guy Willi Castro, sign Ryan Mountcastle after he gets non tendered for the Patrick Wisdom role, and sign Danny Jansen to pair with Amaya behind the plate.  Roughly ~$20M in salary added

- Add three relievers of note.  Something like trade with the Giants for Camilo Doval. trade Mike Tauchman to the Guardians for setup man Tim Herrin, and re-sign Jorge Lopez.  $10-15M added

The Good: This team is preposterously deep.  There is redundancy, generally multiple layers, everywhere on the diamond.  What we have chilling at Iowa only adds to that.  Also by not spending that premium prospect capital. the team still has those bullets available for the summer (either via callup or trade).  The rotation, particularly the top, compares favorably with essentially any others besides the Mariners, Phillies, and healthy Dodgers.  

The Bad:  I hope you subscribe to the weak link theory to roster building.  The position player group is strong and deep, but there's no hitter with an over/under on dongs north of about 25.  The guys who rack up a ton of WAR do so via defense.  On the pitching staff similarly there is a lot to like but no fire-breathing ace or closer unless one of the kids steps up.

For me, this is something around the best case scenario. I think Fried can be replaced with a few names, either FA or through trade...but someone of that caliber, plus the deepening of things is about what I'm expecting as your "best case" Cubs 2024 offseason outcome. That's a team you probably, on paper, write down as an 86-88 win team with some variance, and expect it to be more on the positive than the negative side due to the depth. 

It probably saves Hoyer's job. But I think it also highlights the limitations in Hoyer's roster building - that while there's a ton of depth, the team will remain lacking the elite-elite talent they probably need to get over that hump. It's also fair at some point to question whether Hoyer will ever do it. If he's not willing to do it when his job is on the line, then what's the time? If you allow it, there will always be an excuse to "why not now?" (I'm the poster boy. I've been saying I was going to get my National Boards since 2020. But first it was Covid, then it was settling in during a post Covid world. Then it was I had a student teacher and didn't have the time. Then I bought a house....you get the picture). I think we'll get to a point where I'll stop giving so much benefit of the doubt that it's a "hasn't yet" versus as "doesn't believe in it" type thing.

[We Got The Whole 9]

The Cubs will spend 10-15M upgrading the bench. Meanwhile the Brewers will trade for some non-prospect that provides approximate value. Next year the Cubs will have players ready to assume the bench blocked by the guy who probably wasn't so necessary.

[squally1313]

This is probably an overreaction, but I still just don't see the logic in this being a make or break year for Hoyer, with a fully established line up of PCA and a bunch of veterans all signed for 2+ years...and then just sitting on Caissie, Alcantara, Triantos to a degree with maybe a little to prove in AAA but very clearly no path forward in the next two years. There's not even a plan to work them into an overstocked rotation idea. And I'm not saying they're guarantees, or that they're going to make the team better from the jump, but....having them sit at AAA for months next year, best case hitting well but everyone understanding the built in adjustment period in the majors, worst case slumping or getting hurt and getting the 'AAAA players' label...it just seems like a waste of value they currently hold, and we need all the value we can get right now. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

This is probably an overreaction, but I still just don't see the logic in this being a make or break year for Hoyer, with a fully established line up of PCA and a bunch of veterans all signed for 2+ years...and then just sitting on Caissie, Alcantara, Triantos to a degree with maybe a little to prove in AAA but very clearly no path forward in the next two years. There's not even a plan to work them into an overstocked rotation idea. And I'm not saying they're guarantees, or that they're going to make the team better from the jump, but....having them sit at AAA for months next year, best case hitting well but everyone understanding the built in adjustment period in the majors, worst case slumping or getting hurt and getting the 'AAAA players' label...it just seems like a waste of value they currently hold, and we need all the value we can get right now. 

It is in a literal contractural sense, he's only under contract through this year and they didn't bother extending him like you would normally see with an exec you're especially pleased with.  We might be overstating the degree in which it's 'win the division or you're gone', but there's clearly some level of pressure on Hoyer for things to work and take a step forward.

[squally1313]

18 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

It is in a literal contractural sense, he's only under contract through this year and they didn't bother extending him like you would normally see with an exec you're especially pleased with.  We might be overstating the degree in which it's 'win the division or you're gone', but there's clearly some level of pressure on Hoyer for things to work and take a step forward.

Yeah that may be just terrible syntax on my part. My rant was more 'given make or break status for Hoyer and current major league roster construction, keeping the AAA guys 5th on their respective depth charts for the indefinite future seems like a waste'. I know there are degrees here, but if we're in anything resembling 'win now' mode, it seems to follow that you take the AAA bats with no imminent opening and turn them into immediate help. I think the maybe implicit reason not to is that this core isn't good enough to truly go All In and mortgage the future for a two year push. But if that's the case...what are we doing here in the meantime?

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah that may be just terrible syntax on my part. My rant was more 'given make or break status for Hoyer and current major league roster construction, keeping the AAA guys 5th on their respective depth charts for the indefinite future seems like a waste'. I know there are degrees here, but if we're in anything resembling 'win now' mode, it seems to follow that you take the AAA bats with no imminent opening and turn them into immediate help. I think the maybe implicit reason not to is that this core isn't good enough to truly go All In and mortgage the future for a two year push. But if that's the case...what are we doing here in the meantime?

Yeah, I don't think the Cubs need to go all in for now. But I also look at their prospects and there's a few things that stand out, notably, how many are MLB ready or nearly MLB ready and how many occupy much of the same ground in terms of what they are (or project to be). I don't think the team needs to jettison them for one-year-let's-go-guys, but I do think some internal scouting and realism is necessary in that prospects have shelf life for value, eventually they'll clog up the 40-man if they're not being actively used, and that they're not all going to work out or all have space. So I think some house-keeping is really a good solution for everyone involved; for Hoyer and his continued employment, for the 2025 Cubs (and beyond) and the prospects themselves. 

Moving a few of them for a controllable other that we don't have in house would be good. With Bellinger opting in, that's almost assuredly a SP over anything else but if you want to get wild and crazy, maybe you make a creative trade where you lose a Parades or convince Happ to waive a NTC. I think that's pretty out there, but I guess not impossible?

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Moving a few of them for a controllable other that we don't have in house would be good.

Yeah I mean, there's a lot of ways to make improvements, but ultimately you have, by 2024 fWAR, the 18th ranked staff and the 12th ranked offense. And you have multiple holes on your staff and not so many in your offense. And you have a bunch of near-MLB offensive prospects and not so many pitching prospects. You don't have to take on a bunch of variance risk necessarily, but there should be some retooling going on. 

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

 I think this is probably as good an estimate as we can have.  I especially am becoming convinced that a Willi Castro trade makes a lot of sense for a number of reasons given their likely focus.

I'm curious on 2 things related to this though.  One is what is the Fried contingency?  Maybe it's boring and it's just Eovaldi to save a couple bucks that goes to marginally better RP, but I could be talked into a number of trades that flip the calculus for spending on other holes.  The other is what creative trade might be coming that could change the way those slots net out? Jed was pretty early on the trend of trading for multi-year solutions at the deadline and has been unafraid of selling controlled players to do it repeatedly.  Busch was obviously a logical but unexpected move.  Is there another one in that vein coming?  Does he go for Castro and Duran in one deal maybe?  Is it a less creative but still unexpected like landing Crochet?

It's wild how few alternatives there are to Castro.  Lefty infielders are apparently all stars or scrubs at this point.  If you miss on him it's a wide gap to a bunch of guys in the Cavan Biggio tier.  I agree I think he is the guy this winter where I am most locked in on a specific name and not an idea or a tier of players.

On trade, I really liked Trueblood's trade for Griffin Jax and make him a starter idea.  That would really juice the upside in the 5th starter spot, but has the nice safe fallback of returning him to the pen where he's dominant.  It would also, to the broader convo, be something that would require cashing in some of the trade chips.