Cody Opts In

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7 minutes ago, thawv said:

I just now looked at FG's arb numbers.  They have 35 million in signed arb guys.  I have 14 million in signed arb guys.  If we just sign the 4 arb guys that I would sign, that brings FG number down to 176 million.  Exactly where mine is at. 

One thing I thought was different was the opt out money.  I was 100% certain that Bote's and Smyly's opt out money went against this season.  It looks like I was wrong about that. 

 I'm not able to comprehend what salaries due to injuries that haven't yet, have to due with the payroll before free agency starts tomorrow.

Thanks for trying to spell it out for me.  It actually looks like before my assumption on where the opt out money goes, they will actually have that 65 million, minus the 3.5 opt out money.  FG is going to have to back out a ton of arb payroll when it comes time.  I already did it.  

You still need to include the IL roster time.  Fangraphs before the non-tenders is 42-45 million under depending on if you want to leave the league minimum there for external additions, the non-tenders are what pushes it to low 50s but nothing gets it above 55.

[thawv]

Just now, mul21 said:

The thing you're not compensating for is the salary paid to players on the active roster while someone else is on the IL.  As TT said, it equated to about 10 players worth of salary for the season, so you have to figure in probably $8 million minimum for that plus the $3million for Tauchmann and that gets your number to the $53 million everyone else is talking about.

I do understand that.  If we are putting injury money in the mix before the injuries happen, then yes, it's in the low to mid 50's.  I'm not doing that though.  I guess it's the safe thing to do if a team was dead set on not going over 241 million.  

[mul21]

Just now, thawv said:

I do understand that.  If we are putting injury money in the mix before the injuries happen, then yes, it's in the low to mid 50's.  I'm not doing that though.  I guess it's the safe thing to do if a team was dead set on not going over 241 million.  

You have to do that though.  It's money that WILL be spent and WILL count against the CBT.  Not counting it just to say the number is higher is a false pretense that you absolutely can't operate on.

[thawv]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

You still need to include the IL roster time.  Fangraphs before the non-tenders is 42-45 million under depending on if you want to leave the league minimum there for external additions, the non-tenders are what pushes it to low 50s but nothing gets it above 55.

Yes, if we add 8-10 million to compensate for injuries, then I get it.  But on paper, I haven't seen that done when figuring CBT payroll.  But I'd assume that the Cubs have to do that due to the fact that the 241 million dollar number is pretty much etched in stone.  Unless of course they make another payroll blunder like this season. 

[thawv]

Just now, mul21 said:

You have to do that though.  It's money that WILL be spent and WILL count against the CBT.  Not counting it just to say the number is higher is a false pretense that you absolutely can't operate on.

I get that now.  I honestly was only using the numbers at hand.  Contracts, arb, pre arb, bonus pool, 40 man guys, and player benefits.  Adding in IL payroll is a game changer. 

[thawv]

51 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

You still need to include the IL roster time.  Fangraphs before the non-tenders is 42-45 million under depending on if you want to leave the league minimum there for external additions, the non-tenders are what pushes it to low 50s but nothing gets it above 55.

With the number I used before adding money for injuries of 65 million, it's going to be in the range of your number for certain.  Back out 3.5 million for the 2 opt outs, and we are at 61.5 million.  Back out injury money, and yes, we are in the low to mid 50's.  Thanks, as I never considered that for one second.  I was just looking at what's on paper.

Edited November 4, 2024 by thawv

[LBiittner]

2 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

If Bellinger has another decent year in 2025, I think he is much more likely to opt out next time to sign a multi-year deal going into his age 30 season.  He wasn't going to beat the $27.5M the Cubs are going to pay him in 2025, but he would probably be willing to give up 1 year of $25M in exchange for a long term deal.  Of course if he gets hurt or regresses further in 2025, then he would opt in again, but hopefully that isn't an issue.

Plus the 5mil buyout !

[Stratos]

Anything can happen, but with Cody back the most likely scenario for the offseason given the 50-55m to spend seems to be:  a quality SP, a quality late-inning reliever (plus other lesser pen signings), a bench bat or 2, and signing a catcher like Jansen or acquiring one via trade.

Good news is that given we got essentially zero WAR in 2024 out of every contract of significance coming off the books (Hendricks, Gomes, Mancini, Neris, Barnhart etc) that means the likelihood we spend that money better this winter and are a better team on paper on Opening Day (injuries aside) is virtually assured.

50 million spent could potentially nab us around 7-8 or so WAR in upgrades over last year, which could get us to 90 wins if we're adding to last year's win total, not including what improvements from Paredes, PCA, Amaya might provide (thought that's made up for Nico missing some time and possible other injuries and regressions).

[Bull]

On 11/4/2024 at 7:08 PM, Stratos said:

Anything can happen, but with Cody back the most likely scenario for the offseason given the 50-55m to spend seems to be:  a quality SP, a quality late-inning reliever (plus other lesser pen signings), a bench bat or 2, and signing a catcher like Jansen or acquiring one via trade.

Good news is that given we got essentially zero WAR in 2024 out of every contract of significance coming off the books (Hendricks, Gomes, Mancini, Neris, Barnhart etc) that means the likelihood we spend that money better this winter and are a better team on paper on Opening Day (injuries aside) is virtually assured.

50 million spent could potentially nab us around 7-8 or so WAR in upgrades over last year, which could get us to 90 wins if we're adding to last year's win total, not including what improvements from Paredes, PCA, Amaya might provide (thought that's made up for Nico missing some time and possible other injuries and regressions).

Don't underestimate the ability of someone we are expecting good things from to turn into a pumpkin.

If Dansby continues to under-perform, Bellinger puts up negative WAR again, Happ gets old, Susuki gets hurt and Taillon goes back to 2023 Taillon, there's a lot of room for albatross. There's also a lot of room for regression for low-cost guys but that's not the conversation.

There's also a lot of room for some really good things on this team. But one thing is sure, it won't go according to plan. (so put me in the 9 guys for 8 positions camp, I guess).

[Tryptamine]

On 11/2/2024 at 8:23 PM, chibears55 said:

Why would Oakland trade him now ?

He's in Arb and under team control for 3 more years.

 

Because it's very unlikely a guy with his profile posts another year with a .362 babip and it would be selling high.

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Because it's very unlikely a guy with his profile posts another year with a .362 babip and it would be selling high.

As said they're not trading him 

[Tryptamine]

42 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

As said they're not trading him 

You asked why they would, I gave you a reason that they potentially would even if they have ultimately decided not to.