Cubs Could Bolster Infield With One of These 3 Arbitration-Eligible Lefty Bats

[Matthew Trueblood]

One way to leverage the advantage of being a big-market team with money coming off the books is to seek out teams with talented players whose salaries are rising while the payroll is not.

Image courtesy of © Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

As the offseason looms, there's a veneer of homeostasis around the Cubs' infield. Michael Busch established himself as a strong first baseman in his rookie campaign. Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson are signed to multi-year deals with eight-figure annual salaries, and Isaac Paredes is a two-time All-Star acquired just three months ago, who still has team control remaining.

In truth, though, there's a chance the team will seek out significant changes to the infield mix this winter, even if none of them come at the direct expense of any of those presumptive starters. Paredes had a very rocky first month with the club. Swanson and Hoerner were almost invisible until the final two months, by which time the season was lost. Based on his profile, it's easy to envision wanting Busch in a prominent lineup position against right-handed pitchers, but not wanting him in the lineup at all against most lefties.

Each of these promising and talented players has warts, and even if they didn't, reinforcements would be needed. No team gets through a season without incurring injuries to each unit of their roster, and the Cubs' reserve infielders weren't good enough in 2024. With Miles Mastrobuoni, Patrick Wisdom, and others crying out to be replaced by better options, the team needs to head into the winter planning to upgrade their depth on the dirt.

There are players high in the team's farm system who could contribute as the season progresses, but it's important that the team not depend on that outcome. Yet, it's hard to recruit free agents of especially high quality when you don't have a starting job to offer them. Try to fill secondary roles via MLB free agency, and you end up with deals like the Daniel Descalso disaster. So, the creative solution is to look around the trade market and identify players who are good fits for your needs, but who might not be good fits for their own organization--not because they're too deeply flawed, but because those teams have limited spending power and they're due for salary bumps via arbitration that might not be deemed affordable. Here are three lefty-hitting infielders who fit those criteria for the Cubs as the hot stove season draws near.

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Josh Rojas, 3B, Mariners
Two years of team control remaining, est. 2025 salary: $4.3 million, per MLB Trade Rumors
A late-blooming underdog, Rojas didn't fully establish himself until his age-27 season with Arizona. Dealt to Seattle in the Paul Sewald trade at the 2023 deadline, he's been an underwhelming contributor for the Mariners. However, he just turned 30 at the end of June, and he still has several features to recommend him as a complementary piece for this infield.

A lefty batter, Rojas could be a partial platoon partner to both Hoerner and Paredes, based on matchups and the team's day-to-day defensive needs. He's a fine defender at the hot corner, and a passable one at the keystone. He only batted .240/.318/.370 against righties this season, but that undersells him significantly. Seattle's home park is the only one that played tougher for batters than did Wrigley Field in 2024, but that's just part of the story. Rojas struck out just 20.8% of the time and walked 9.8% of the time against righties, with an above-average hard-hit rate and plenty of line drives and fly balls.

Against righties, he's a balanced, average-plus hitter, with below-average power but above-average ability in all other aspects of offense. Rojas just needs to be sheltered from left-handed pitchers. The Cubs would be in position to make 90 percent of his plate appearances come against right-handed ones, and they can benefit from his defensive flexibility, too. If the Mariners don't want to pay an average salary for a player who can't quite hack it as an everyday option, the Cubs should be first in line to nab him.

Willi Castro, UTIL, Twins
One year of team control remaining, est. 2025 salary: $6.2 million
One of the most unlikely All-Stars of the season, Castro blossomed gorgeously in his second season with the Twins, after he was so raw and frustrating that the Tigers non-tendered him in 2022. He flailed and sputtered down the stretch, playing more often and in a wider variety of places than almost anyone else in the league, but the overall picture is still one of a player who does a lot of things well.

Castro will only turn 28 next April, and in addition to the dynamism of his offensive game, he brings value with his glove and his legs--although the latter has proved somewhat fickle. After stealing 33 bases in 38 tries in 2023, Castro was caught nine times and stole just 14 in 2024. He also made more bad baserunning mistakes this year, but in general, his speed and aggressiveness are still assets. He's also as versatile a defender as almost anyone in the game, having appeared at least 25 times at five different positions last year: second base, third base, shortstop, left field, and center field.

The switch-hitter handles righties better than lefties, but isn't helpless when batting right-handed. He's a slightly better and much more flexible bat than Rojas, and his capability at so many spots makes up for a lack of brilliance at any particular one. The downsides are that he will cost more money, be under team control one fewer year, and perhaps still cost more in a trade than Rojas, but the Cubs can weigh their options and select the superior deal--as long as they're proactive about ascertaining the availability of each. The Twins' payroll has no room to inflate next season, so Castro's waiting payday will be mildly onerous for them, unless they can move him.

Luis García Jr., 2B, Nationals
Three years of team control left, est. 2025 salary: $4.8 million
More so than with Rojas or Castro, getting García might require really ponying up, but he could very well be worth it. A top prospect heading into 2020, García was rushed to the majors rather than have his season wasted, but it's slowed his development into a mature big-league hitter. Just 24 years old even after playing parts of five seasons, he really figured some things out in 2024.

Over 140 games and 528 plate appearances, García hit .282/.318/.444, with 18 home runs and 22 stolen bases. He's a left-handed hitter and a fine baserunner, although a subpar defensive second baseman. His bat is so potent--especially against right-handed pitchers, whom he clubbed to the tune of a .469 slugging average--that he'd be a transformational situational upgrade over Swanson (.361), Hoerner (.359), or Paredes (.360), none of whom slugged within 100 points of him off righties.

Whereas the Mariners don't view Rojas as a core piece and the Twins need to move so much money that Castro is a tough fit, Washington could plausibly hold onto their second baseman. In all likelihood, García would require a trade package rich enough to leave the team feeling an obligation to play him nearly every day. He could find some of that time at designated hitter, some as a bench bat, and some in place of Paredes, but he'd have to heavily cannibalize Hoerner's playing time to rack up 550 or more plate appearances.

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These are three distinct player types, but they would all functionally take up the same roster spot for the team next year. Rojas would be a platoon player and defensive specialist. Castro would be a super-sub and chaos creator at the bottom of the lineup, keeping everyone fresh and catalyzing an offense that often lacked that very ingredient last year. García is the one with the star-caliber upside and the power so many fans crave, but he'd also be markedly more costly than the others--with a hefty arbitration-driven price tag over the next three years, plus an acquisition cost much like those of Paredes and Busch.

Maybe none of these three come to fruition, but each represents the kind of upside the team needs to seek as they round out their roster for 2025. Whether or not they successfully upgrade any of their nominal starting positions, they have to be deeper than they were this year, when Craig Counsell increasingly stuck to his trusted nine every day over the final two months--not because they were world-beaters, but because no one on his bench was a credible alternative even when his weaker starters faced bad matchups. Jed Hoyer's job this winter is to make a roster that overflows with talent, and these three trade targets are exemplars of the player type the front office should be pursuing: overqualified role players or perfectly adequate regulars, should the need for that arise. That they're all available as much for financial as for baseball reasons should only make the Cubs more eager to pounce.

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[Bertz]

Garcia is very good, decent argument for most underrated player in the league, but he feels like overkill for the team's needs given what's at Iowa.  If we didn't have Shaw and Triantos down there, do it.  But I think we can settle for more pure bench types.

Castro looks pretty ideal to me.  Add him, a lefty masher 1B/DH type, and a catcher and you've suddenly got a pretty stellar bench.  I know the fanbase is laser focused on "big bat" but as I look forward to this offseason I feel like given what we have in place both in Chicago and Iowa my preferred track is build up the bench and then pour the rest of the resources into the pitching staff.

[Tim]

32 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Garcia is very good, decent argument for most underrated player in the league, but he feels like overkill for the team's needs given what's at Iowa.  If we didn't have Shaw and Triantos down there, do it.  But I think we can settle for more pure bench types.

Castro looks pretty ideal to me.  Add him, a lefty masher 1B/DH type, and a catcher and you've suddenly got a pretty stellar bench.  I know the fanbase is laser focused on "big bat" but as I look forward to this offseason I feel like given what we have in place both in Chicago and Iowa my preferred track is build up the bench and then pour the rest of the resources into the pitching staff.

Would you plan to trade Shaw or just keep him at Iowa as an injury replacement? I suppose if you like Castro more than Tauchman he could be your backup OF.

I know the article is looking for ways to add more left handed hitters, but I'd really like to break in Shaw next year in that Zobrist-type role.

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Tim said:

Would you plan to trade Shaw or just keep him at Iowa as an injury replacement? I suppose if you like Castro more than Tauchman he could be your backup OF.

I know the article is looking for ways to add more left handed hitters, but I'd really like to break in Shaw next year in that Zobrist-type role.

I think that's part of what I specifically like about Castro is it makes the Shaw stuff easier.  With Castro able to play seemingly everywhere, the decision can be 100% about Shaw's readiness. 

In the dream scenario where all four of Swanson, Hoerner, Paredes, Shaw are healthy and performing it does put a squeeze on the veteran bench guys, but maybe you make a trade from there.  To your point Tauchman and Castro have too much overlap at that point so trade one.  Or if you want to get nuts for an in-season trade Paredes or Hoerner are at that point a bit expendable.

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I think that's part of what I specifically like about Castro is it makes the Shaw stuff easier.  With Castro able to play seemingly everywhere, the decision can be 100% about Shaw's readiness. 

In the dream scenario where all four of Swanson, Hoerner, Paredes, Shaw are healthy and performing it does put a squeeze on the veteran bench guys, but maybe you make a trade from there.  To your point Tauchman and Castro have too much overlap at that point so trade one.  Or if you want to get nuts for an in-season trade Paredes or Hoerner are at that point a bit expendable.

I think you guys are a little too high on the farm system in general, and Shaw in particular. The way he's succeeded so far in the minors will not work in the majors. Lot of changes left to make, and wouldn't be shocked if he ends up a pretty low-ceiling dude by the time they're complete. I certainly don't think they should wait around and count on his contributions toward winning in 2025, unless it be as part of a broader retooling that I don't foresee.

[mul21]

30 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I think you guys are a little too high on the farm system in general, and Shaw in particular. The way he's succeeded so far in the minors will not work in the majors. Lot of changes left to make, and wouldn't be shocked if he ends up a pretty low-ceiling dude by the time they're complete. I certainly don't think they should wait around and count on his contributions toward winning in 2025, unless it be as part of a broader retooling that I don't foresee.

What specifically do you think he needs to change to be successful in MLB?  

[Bertz]

29 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I think you guys are a little too high on the farm system in general, and Shaw in particular. The way he's succeeded so far in the minors will not work in the majors. Lot of changes left to make, and wouldn't be shocked if he ends up a pretty low-ceiling dude by the time they're complete. I certainly don't think they should wait around and count on his contributions toward winning in 2025, unless it be as part of a broader retooling that I don't foresee.

I feel like the burden of proof is kind of on you here?  I know you don't like his leg kick, but none of the actual scouts mind it given he's a fairly consensus top 50 prospect.  And from a data perspective there aren't any red flags.  The contact numbers at Iowa were a bit soft, but they're not especially problematic and given how little swing and miss he had before Iowa there's a good chance it's adjusting to a new level.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I agree that an explicit goal of the offseason should not be finding room for Shaw or any of the Iowa hitters, there's too much risk regardless of your view of them to be doing things like trading Nico, or leaving DH open for Caissie.  However, I think that they could very well have a bench spot that's functionally earmarked for one of multiple AAA prospects(with an NRI placeholder if that isn't possible opening day) if that means that they get to use resources elsewhere.  Especially if you're able to build the roster such that it's 'the best/most ready of these 2-4 options' for a single roster spot(when all of those guys are Top 100 prospects), I don't think that's nearly as risky.

[Matthew Trueblood]

32 minutes ago, mul21 said:

What specifically do you think he needs to change to be successful in MLB?  

He's going to have to quiet the leg kick down, or MLB pitchers are going to eat him for lunch. And once he does quiet it down, what's left is a 5-foot-9 dude who might REALLY struggle to generate consistent power, against the much better stuff of big-league pitchers. We tend to think only about the way big-leaguers can miss your bat or entice you to chase, but they also tend to have better heat and/or deeper arsenals, both of which tend to mean that you also don't hit the ball as squarely or sharply as you can against lesser arms. Shaw will have to find ways to consistently hit the ball hard against much better pitchers, after making adjustments that will compromise the way he's generated power against those lesser arms so far in his career.

This is not new information, and it doesn't make him a non-prospect. It's just an important reminder of how great the gap left to bridge is. It's why he was available at No. 13 last summer, rather than being in the top 5-10 conversation. He was a safe pick in the middle of the first round. Expecting stardom from him would be outrageous, especially in the short term. He's much more likely to look the way most mid-first round college bats do, which is to say, he's likely to settle in around average--and that more likely in 2026 than in 2025.

I mention this often, but don't think people like to hear it, so it sometimes goes unabsorbed: we have a major problem with prospect ranking creep lately. All the major outlets have gone, stepwise, from one top-100 list per year to two or three full-fledged re-rankings, all of which people treat as equivalent data points to what we had in the past. It ain't so. It's not the same thing to slide up into the top 30 of a prospect list by September as it is to be in that position in March, and the public isn't yet doing a good job of digesting the faster rankings cycle. Shaw is a bit overrated right now, but that's not a knock on his skill set. It's a product of how the minors work right now and of the prospect-ranking industry changing in some fun but sometimes misleading ways.

[Matthew Trueblood]

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I agree that an explicit goal of the offseason should not be finding room for Shaw or any of the Iowa hitters, there's too much risk regardless of your view of them to be doing things like trading Nico, or leaving DH open for Caissie.  However, I think that they could very well have a bench spot that's functionally earmarked for one of multiple AAA prospects(with an NRI placeholder if that isn't possible opening day) if that means that they get to use resources elsewhere.  Especially if you're able to build the roster such that it's 'the best/most ready of these 2-4 options' for a single roster spot(when all of those guys are Top 100 prospects), I don't think that's nearly as risky.

I agree with this, I think. There are four bench spots. One has to be the secondary catcher; that clearly needs to be upgraded. Of the other three, two need to be much higher-utility than they were this year. If the last is reserved for the guy who walks into camp as an NRI and goes Tauchman or the prospect who dazzles, that's fine. All four spots were insufficiently staffed in 2024.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

26 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I agree with this, I think. There are four bench spots. One has to be the secondary catcher; that clearly needs to be upgraded. Of the other three, two need to be much higher-utility than they were this year. If the last is reserved for the guy who walks into camp as an NRI and goes Tauchman or the prospect who dazzles, that's fine. All four spots were insufficiently staffed in 2024.

Yep, we're on the same page.  The important part of it is that the marginal resources get used elsewhere. So instead of spending X million(or trade equivalent) on all 3 of the non-catcher spots, you do it on 2 and make more meaningful upgrades elsewhere(slightly better SP, your preferred RP target less bound by AAV, etc).

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

He's going to have to quiet the leg kick down, or MLB pitchers are going to eat him for lunch. And once he does quiet it down, what's left is a 5-foot-9 dude who might REALLY struggle to generate consistent power, against the much better stuff of big-league pitchers. We tend to think only about the way big-leaguers can miss your bat or entice you to chase, but they also tend to have better heat and/or deeper arsenals, both of which tend to mean that you also don't hit the ball as squarely or sharply as you can against lesser arms. Shaw will have to find ways to consistently hit the ball hard against much better pitchers, after making adjustments that will compromise the way he's generated power against those lesser arms so far in his career.

This is not new information, and it doesn't make him a non-prospect. It's just an important reminder of how great the gap left to bridge is. It's why he was available at No. 13 last summer, rather than being in the top 5-10 conversation. He was a safe pick in the middle of the first round. Expecting stardom from him would be outrageous, especially in the short term. He's much more likely to look the way most mid-first round college bats do, which is to say, he's likely to settle in around average--and that more likely in 2026 than in 2025.

I mention this often, but don't think people like to hear it, so it sometimes goes unabsorbed: we have a major problem with prospect ranking creep lately. All the major outlets have gone, stepwise, from one top-100 list per year to two or three full-fledged re-rankings, all of which people treat as equivalent data points to what we had in the past. It ain't so. It's not the same thing to slide up into the top 30 of a prospect list by September as it is to be in that position in March, and the public isn't yet doing a good job of digesting the faster rankings cycle. Shaw is a bit overrated right now, but that's not a knock on his skill set. It's a product of how the minors work right now and of the prospect-ranking industry changing in some fun but sometimes misleading ways.

I think it's fair to question the leg kick's viability as we continue. It's quite pronounced and exaggerated motions tend not to work very often. With that said, and while I don't want to completely ignore the stuff gap between Triple-A and the MLB (it's real and it's getting wider) at least at the Triple-A level, Shaw did not show an issue with velocity. On pitches 94-97mph, Shaw had an 83.7% contact rate, and an in-zone whiff rate below 17%. He had a solid 90+ mph exit velo on those pitches. I don't mean to gloss over it, but I'd say to date, Shaw hasn't shown an issue with what I think we'd perceive the leg kick's issue to be; in that he would struggle to catch velocity. Obviously, as previously mentioned, the difference between the MLB and Triple-A is a big one, so that could change in a hurry. I do think there are two positives working in Shaw's favor here, though. 

The first positive is that even if there's a mechanical change needed on the fly, I think there are a few examples of how to fix those things. The first is that the Cubs seemingly had pretty good success playing around with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Miguel Amaya's mechanics mid-season and saw positive gains out of both. How well those stick...we'll see, but I think initial results were "much better". Obviously different mechanical changes here, but the Cubs had a plan for each and had success. It isn't like the org has been entirely inept there. Zach Neto seems like a pretty good example as well, of how a not-very-large guy was able to cut the kick from 2023 to 2024 and still managed to hit 23 home runs. He's got a few inches of leverage on Shaw according to his official listing, but both have similar weights. I don't want to say that it's an easy or guaranteed fix, just that I think some precedent is there that would make me feel better about it happening.

The second positive I'd point to is that Shaw changes his swing with two strikes to a far less pronounced leg kick...,it's still there, but it's less there (examples below). Using Triple-A data, while he's not going to have the same wOBA with two strikes (it's a tougher spot to be in), his exit velocity between 2 strikes and less than 2 strikes isn't overly pronounced. He's just under 90mph with two strikes, and at 89 mph with two-strikes-not-full. Average Triple-A exit velocity in these situations is 3-4 mph lower than Shaw. He's also still getting to the barrel there at 18%, which is 3% higher than MiLB average as well. If there's a counter argument to it, it's that he hits the ball a lot more on the ground with 2 strikes, so some of that EV is coming from hard hit ground balls - something that probably could use a tweak? In the end, I think there's some reason to be optimistic that even if the leg kick needs to tone down, that he's not going to be at a complete loss of power. 

Home run with less than 2 strikes

Matt Shaw Triple less than 2 strikes

Home Run 2 Strikes

Matt Shaw single 2 strikes

Overall, I think people over estimate the quickness of how well a prospect will settle in. The best prospects on the planet are struggling for weeks on end before they get comfortable, and while I like Shaw a bunch, he's well short of Chourio or Holiday. That said, I'm fairly bullish on his long term outlook, even if they've got to play with the mechanics. I don't think he's a superstar prospect, and I think the fair assumption is that the first 30-45 days will be a learning curve and mechanical tweaking, but I think he can come out on the other end a good MLB player regardless.