Cubs Could Bolster Infield With One of These 3 Arbitration-Eligible Lefty Bats

Garcia is very good, decent argument for most underrated player in the league, but he feels like overkill for the team's needs given what's at Iowa.  If we didn't have Shaw and Triantos down there, do it.  But I think we can settle for more pure bench types.

Castro looks pretty ideal to me.  Add him, a lefty masher 1B/DH type, and a catcher and you've suddenly got a pretty stellar bench.  I know the fanbase is laser focused on "big bat" but as I look forward to this offseason I feel like given what we have in place both in Chicago and Iowa my preferred track is build up the bench and then pour the rest of the resources into the pitching staff.

32 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Garcia is very good, decent argument for most underrated player in the league, but he feels like overkill for the team's needs given what's at Iowa.  If we didn't have Shaw and Triantos down there, do it.  But I think we can settle for more pure bench types.

Castro looks pretty ideal to me.  Add him, a lefty masher 1B/DH type, and a catcher and you've suddenly got a pretty stellar bench.  I know the fanbase is laser focused on "big bat" but as I look forward to this offseason I feel like given what we have in place both in Chicago and Iowa my preferred track is build up the bench and then pour the rest of the resources into the pitching staff.

Would you plan to trade Shaw or just keep him at Iowa as an injury replacement? I suppose if you like Castro more than Tauchman he could be your backup OF.

I know the article is looking for ways to add more left handed hitters, but I'd really like to break in Shaw next year in that Zobrist-type role.

1 minute ago, Tim said:

Would you plan to trade Shaw or just keep him at Iowa as an injury replacement? I suppose if you like Castro more than Tauchman he could be your backup OF.

I know the article is looking for ways to add more left handed hitters, but I'd really like to break in Shaw next year in that Zobrist-type role.

I think that's part of what I specifically like about Castro is it makes the Shaw stuff easier.  With Castro able to play seemingly everywhere, the decision can be 100% about Shaw's readiness. 

In the dream scenario where all four of Swanson, Hoerner, Paredes, Shaw are healthy and performing it does put a squeeze on the veteran bench guys, but maybe you make a trade from there.  To your point Tauchman and Castro have too much overlap at that point so trade one.  Or if you want to get nuts for an in-season trade Paredes or Hoerner are at that point a bit expendable.

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I think that's part of what I specifically like about Castro is it makes the Shaw stuff easier.  With Castro able to play seemingly everywhere, the decision can be 100% about Shaw's readiness. 

In the dream scenario where all four of Swanson, Hoerner, Paredes, Shaw are healthy and performing it does put a squeeze on the veteran bench guys, but maybe you make a trade from there.  To your point Tauchman and Castro have too much overlap at that point so trade one.  Or if you want to get nuts for an in-season trade Paredes or Hoerner are at that point a bit expendable.

I think you guys are a little too high on the farm system in general, and Shaw in particular. The way he's succeeded so far in the minors will not work in the majors. Lot of changes left to make, and wouldn't be shocked if he ends up a pretty low-ceiling dude by the time they're complete. I certainly don't think they should wait around and count on his contributions toward winning in 2025, unless it be as part of a broader retooling that I don't foresee.

30 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I think you guys are a little too high on the farm system in general, and Shaw in particular. The way he's succeeded so far in the minors will not work in the majors. Lot of changes left to make, and wouldn't be shocked if he ends up a pretty low-ceiling dude by the time they're complete. I certainly don't think they should wait around and count on his contributions toward winning in 2025, unless it be as part of a broader retooling that I don't foresee.

What specifically do you think he needs to change to be successful in MLB?  

29 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I think you guys are a little too high on the farm system in general, and Shaw in particular. The way he's succeeded so far in the minors will not work in the majors. Lot of changes left to make, and wouldn't be shocked if he ends up a pretty low-ceiling dude by the time they're complete. I certainly don't think they should wait around and count on his contributions toward winning in 2025, unless it be as part of a broader retooling that I don't foresee.

I feel like the burden of proof is kind of on you here?  I know you don't like his leg kick, but none of the actual scouts mind it given he's a fairly consensus top 50 prospect.  And from a data perspective there aren't any red flags.  The contact numbers at Iowa were a bit soft, but they're not especially problematic and given how little swing and miss he had before Iowa there's a good chance it's adjusting to a new level.

I agree that an explicit goal of the offseason should not be finding room for Shaw or any of the Iowa hitters, there's too much risk regardless of your view of them to be doing things like trading Nico, or leaving DH open for Caissie.  However, I think that they could very well have a bench spot that's functionally earmarked for one of multiple AAA prospects(with an NRI placeholder if that isn't possible opening day) if that means that they get to use resources elsewhere.  Especially if you're able to build the roster such that it's 'the best/most ready of these 2-4 options' for a single roster spot(when all of those guys are Top 100 prospects), I don't think that's nearly as risky.

32 minutes ago, mul21 said:

What specifically do you think he needs to change to be successful in MLB?  

He's going to have to quiet the leg kick down, or MLB pitchers are going to eat him for lunch. And once he does quiet it down, what's left is a 5-foot-9 dude who might REALLY struggle to generate consistent power, against the much better stuff of big-league pitchers. We tend to think only about the way big-leaguers can miss your bat or entice you to chase, but they also tend to have better heat and/or deeper arsenals, both of which tend to mean that you also don't hit the ball as squarely or sharply as you can against lesser arms. Shaw will have to find ways to consistently hit the ball hard against much better pitchers, after making adjustments that will compromise the way he's generated power against those lesser arms so far in his career.

This is not new information, and it doesn't make him a non-prospect. It's just an important reminder of how great the gap left to bridge is. It's why he was available at No. 13 last summer, rather than being in the top 5-10 conversation. He was a safe pick in the middle of the first round. Expecting stardom from him would be outrageous, especially in the short term. He's much more likely to look the way most mid-first round college bats do, which is to say, he's likely to settle in around average--and that more likely in 2026 than in 2025.

I mention this often, but don't think people like to hear it, so it sometimes goes unabsorbed: we have a major problem with prospect ranking creep lately. All the major outlets have gone, stepwise, from one top-100 list per year to two or three full-fledged re-rankings, all of which people treat as equivalent data points to what we had in the past. It ain't so. It's not the same thing to slide up into the top 30 of a prospect list by September as it is to be in that position in March, and the public isn't yet doing a good job of digesting the faster rankings cycle. Shaw is a bit overrated right now, but that's not a knock on his skill set. It's a product of how the minors work right now and of the prospect-ranking industry changing in some fun but sometimes misleading ways.

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I agree that an explicit goal of the offseason should not be finding room for Shaw or any of the Iowa hitters, there's too much risk regardless of your view of them to be doing things like trading Nico, or leaving DH open for Caissie.  However, I think that they could very well have a bench spot that's functionally earmarked for one of multiple AAA prospects(with an NRI placeholder if that isn't possible opening day) if that means that they get to use resources elsewhere.  Especially if you're able to build the roster such that it's 'the best/most ready of these 2-4 options' for a single roster spot(when all of those guys are Top 100 prospects), I don't think that's nearly as risky.

I agree with this, I think. There are four bench spots. One has to be the secondary catcher; that clearly needs to be upgraded. Of the other three, two need to be much higher-utility than they were this year. If the last is reserved for the guy who walks into camp as an NRI and goes Tauchman or the prospect who dazzles, that's fine. All four spots were insufficiently staffed in 2024.

26 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I agree with this, I think. There are four bench spots. One has to be the secondary catcher; that clearly needs to be upgraded. Of the other three, two need to be much higher-utility than they were this year. If the last is reserved for the guy who walks into camp as an NRI and goes Tauchman or the prospect who dazzles, that's fine. All four spots were insufficiently staffed in 2024.

Yep, we're on the same page.  The important part of it is that the marginal resources get used elsewhere. So instead of spending X million(or trade equivalent) on all 3 of the non-catcher spots, you do it on 2 and make more meaningful upgrades elsewhere(slightly better SP, your preferred RP target less bound by AAV, etc).

2 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

He's going to have to quiet the leg kick down, or MLB pitchers are going to eat him for lunch. And once he does quiet it down, what's left is a 5-foot-9 dude who might REALLY struggle to generate consistent power, against the much better stuff of big-league pitchers. We tend to think only about the way big-leaguers can miss your bat or entice you to chase, but they also tend to have better heat and/or deeper arsenals, both of which tend to mean that you also don't hit the ball as squarely or sharply as you can against lesser arms. Shaw will have to find ways to consistently hit the ball hard against much better pitchers, after making adjustments that will compromise the way he's generated power against those lesser arms so far in his career.

This is not new information, and it doesn't make him a non-prospect. It's just an important reminder of how great the gap left to bridge is. It's why he was available at No. 13 last summer, rather than being in the top 5-10 conversation. He was a safe pick in the middle of the first round. Expecting stardom from him would be outrageous, especially in the short term. He's much more likely to look the way most mid-first round college bats do, which is to say, he's likely to settle in around average--and that more likely in 2026 than in 2025.

I mention this often, but don't think people like to hear it, so it sometimes goes unabsorbed: we have a major problem with prospect ranking creep lately. All the major outlets have gone, stepwise, from one top-100 list per year to two or three full-fledged re-rankings, all of which people treat as equivalent data points to what we had in the past. It ain't so. It's not the same thing to slide up into the top 30 of a prospect list by September as it is to be in that position in March, and the public isn't yet doing a good job of digesting the faster rankings cycle. Shaw is a bit overrated right now, but that's not a knock on his skill set. It's a product of how the minors work right now and of the prospect-ranking industry changing in some fun but sometimes misleading ways.

I think it's fair to question the leg kick's viability as we continue. It's quite pronounced and exaggerated motions tend not to work very often. With that said, and while I don't want to completely ignore the stuff gap between Triple-A and the MLB (it's real and it's getting wider) at least at the Triple-A level, Shaw did not show an issue with velocity. On pitches 94-97mph, Shaw had an 83.7% contact rate, and an in-zone whiff rate below 17%. He had a solid 90+ mph exit velo on those pitches. I don't mean to gloss over it, but I'd say to date, Shaw hasn't shown an issue with what I think we'd perceive the leg kick's issue to be; in that he would struggle to catch velocity. Obviously, as previously mentioned, the difference between the MLB and Triple-A is a big one, so that could change in a hurry. I do think there are two positives working in Shaw's favor here, though. 

The first positive is that even if there's a mechanical change needed on the fly, I think there are a few examples of how to fix those things. The first is that the Cubs seemingly had pretty good success playing around with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Miguel Amaya's mechanics mid-season and saw positive gains out of both. How well those stick...we'll see, but I think initial results were "much better". Obviously different mechanical changes here, but the Cubs had a plan for each and had success. It isn't like the org has been entirely inept there. Zach Neto seems like a pretty good example as well, of how a not-very-large guy was able to cut the kick from 2023 to 2024 and still managed to hit 23 home runs. He's got a few inches of leverage on Shaw according to his official listing, but both have similar weights. I don't want to say that it's an easy or guaranteed fix, just that I think some precedent is there that would make me feel better about it happening.

The second positive I'd point to is that Shaw changes his swing with two strikes to a far less pronounced leg kick...,it's still there, but it's less there (examples below). Using Triple-A data, while he's not going to have the same wOBA with two strikes (it's a tougher spot to be in), his exit velocity between 2 strikes and less than 2 strikes isn't overly pronounced. He's just under 90mph with two strikes, and at 89 mph with two-strikes-not-full. Average Triple-A exit velocity in these situations is 3-4 mph lower than Shaw. He's also still getting to the barrel there at 18%, which is 3% higher than MiLB average as well. If there's a counter argument to it, it's that he hits the ball a lot more on the ground with 2 strikes, so some of that EV is coming from hard hit ground balls - something that probably could use a tweak? In the end, I think there's some reason to be optimistic that even if the leg kick needs to tone down, that he's not going to be at a complete loss of power. 

Home run with less than 2 strikes

Matt Shaw Triple less than 2 strikes

Home Run 2 Strikes

Matt Shaw single 2 strikes

Overall, I think people over estimate the quickness of how well a prospect will settle in. The best prospects on the planet are struggling for weeks on end before they get comfortable, and while I like Shaw a bunch, he's well short of Chourio or Holiday. That said, I'm fairly bullish on his long term outlook, even if they've got to play with the mechanics. I don't think he's a superstar prospect, and I think the fair assumption is that the first 30-45 days will be a learning curve and mechanical tweaking, but I think he can come out on the other end a good MLB player regardless.