Review of last offseason's moves

[Stratos]

Now would be a good time to look at how we did with last offseason's moves.  We can look at what our needs were, who we acquired, and compare how they performed per their contracts versus the other options Jed had last offseason.  Hindsight is 20/20 of course.

Per my mediocre memory, our needs were:  CF, 1B, 3B, SP, relievers.  We also dumped Rossy for Counsell.

-----------------------------------

I can start with CF:   Options were Bellinger, Bader, Kiermaier, or going with PCA (after a terrible Sept debut)

Jed's move:  Bellinger, 3 years w/ high AAV with opt outs.

Result:  Bellinger did fine, WAR was suppressed by injury & playing DH for about 20% of the season.  Bader, Kiermaier, and other options did poorly.  PCA came up to field and run excellently but overall hit below-average.

Transaction grade at the time:  B+.   Grade post-2024:  B-

Edited October 13, 2024 by Stratos

[We Got The Whole 9]

This is so elaborate and thorough.

[Bertz]

There's an episode of Scrubs that always stuck with me.  It's the first episode of Elizabeth Banks' arc.  She plays a surgeon (I forget what kind).  JD's patient that week needs that type of surgery, and Banks' character refuses to do it because it's too risky.  Turns out she cynically avoids risky surgeries, because she needs to keep her stats up to earn promotions/fellowships/etc.

Jed doesn't really make many bad moves.  And even the ones he does make are piddling little things like $5M to Tucker Barnhart or $14M to Trey Mancini.  The problem with Jed is very similar to the problem with that character on Scrubs: he's not been willing to take on risk or push past the threshold where his moves would begin to suffer any diminishing returns.  

The question is if Jed will forever be unwilling to stretch things, or if he has just not yet been willing.  By Jed's own admission, they view the club as being in a very healthy place right now.  The farm is strong, there is very little long term money tied up.  Combine that with his own contractual situation and this winter should be pretty telling.  Feels like we have hit "if not now, then when?"

[Rex Buckingham]

Next season is make or break for Jed. If he goes into the season basically standing pat, he's letting his job ride on prospects coming up and being everything we hope they would be and for the returners to all stay steady or improve. That makes me think he's going to have to make at least 1 big move this offseason, whether it's for a starter or a big bat

[Joj]

Bellinger did, "fine" sure, but he was supposed to be the biggest star.  Which is the real problem.

Edited October 16, 2024 by Joj

[Cuzi]

Bellinger did "fine" when compared to the other options listed. Bellinger did bad when compared to the salary he was given. He was/is the biggest expense on the team and he was the 10th most valuable player on the roster. Bellinger is going to be a dumpster fire if he opts in and that becomes the excuse for why we couldn't do X, Y, and Z.

Edited October 13, 2024 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

4 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Bellinger did "fine" when compared to the other options listed. Bellinger did bad when compared to the salary he was given. He was/is the biggest expense on the team and he was the 10th most valuable player on the roster. Bellinger is going to be a dumpster fire if he opts in and that becomes the excuse for why we couldn't do X, Y, and Z.

It very well might be their excuse, but it shouldn’t be. There is still enough money available as well as enough young minor league assets to be able to work in the FA world as well as trades. And they can always trade Bellinger. Just a salary dump. For a team who isn’t worried about payroll he isn’t a bad guy to acquire for a year. Don’t expect anything back, but I have to think the Yankees or Phillies would take him and most of his contract. Maybe the Mets too. And if they can dump him that really gives them enough money as well as a spot in the line up to improve. If a GM believes there are no bad one year deals, they may take him. This is a huge year for Jed. He has to think outside the box. 

[LBiittner]

3 of the 4 remaining teams have payrolls over $300million.

And we're worried belli opts in with his deal 

Spend money like a steinbrenner, Cohen or Walter's just once and let your 40 million dollar manager sort out the lineup

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

It very well might be their excuse, but it shouldn’t be. There is still enough money available as well as enough young minor league assets to be able to work in the FA world as well as trades. And they can always trade Bellinger. Just a salary dump. For a team who isn’t worried about payroll he isn’t a bad guy to acquire for a year. Don’t expect anything back, but I have to think the Yankees or Phillies would take him and most of his contract. Maybe the Mets too. And if they can dump him that really gives them enough money as well as a spot in the line up to improve. If a GM believes there are no bad one year deals, they may take him. This is a huge year for Jed. He has to think outside the box. 

What's nice this offseason is that pretty much all the guys we're losing to FA (Bellinger pending) were all basically dead weight with little to no real value in 2024.  That means we can only add value with that money whatever we spend it on, we can't really do any worse.  At worst the player(s) we spend on this offseason with that cash are a bust again like Hendricks, Mancini, Neris, Gomes etc.

We were free of the Heyward contract finally last offseason but then spent 16m on Hendricks and 10m on Neris.  Treading water.  Stroman and Bellinger left for FA and we replaced them with Imanaga and Bellinger, which together was mostly a wash from Stro/Belli 2023.  We acquired Busch but brought back Gomes who was negative 1.2 WAR.  Added PCA but Morel was a bust.

We need to stop treading water and add WAR.  All the options I can think of to do this:  1) spend better (more efficiently, especially on smaller contracts), 2) trade assets in the minors for MLB players, 3) raise our total payroll, or 4) trade 1 or more expensive players and replace them with cheaper players (e.g. prospects) and spend that money saved to upgrade another position at a net gain in WAR.  Example:  trade Bellinger and replace with Caissie/Alcantara/Canario, then use that cash to sign a top SP in FA.

Edited October 14, 2024 by Stratos

[CubinNY]

20 hours ago, Rex Buckingham said:

Next season is make or break for Jed. If he goes into the season basically standing pat, he's letting his job ride on prospects coming up and being everything we hope they would be and for the returners to all stay steady or improve. That makes me think he's going to have to make at least 1 big move this offseason, whether it's for a starter or a big bat

I think they will make some trades and clean up the redundancies in the OF and 2nd/3rd. My bet in Triantos/one of the younger SS and either Caissie/Alcantara

[thawv]

On 10/13/2024 at 12:38 PM, Rex Buckingham said:

Next season is make or break for Jed. If he goes into the season basically standing pat, he's letting his job ride on prospects coming up and being everything we hope they would be and for the returners to all stay steady or improve. That makes me think he's going to have to make at least 1 big move this offseason, whether it's for a starter or a big bat

As far as the fans go, it's a make or break season.  But we don't know how Tom feels about him.  On the surface, it appears that he's content to happy with the job Jed has done. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

As far as the fans go, it's a make or break season.  But we don't know how Tom feels about him.  On the surface, it appears that he's content to happy with the job Jed has done. 

I’m not sure this is true. Yes, IMO, Jed follows exactly how TR wants to build a team. Intelligent spending, no crazy contracts, build a good minor league system, keep the payroll within a reasonable level, etc, etc….. However, TR might feel ownership gives him enough to win. And he hasn’t won.  If Tom was so happy with Jed this wouldn’t be a lame duck year. And so far, it is. I honestly think Tom thinks he gives Jed enough money and enough freedom to build a winning team. So if he doesn’t this year he might be gone. 

[thawv]

10 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I’m not sure this is true. Yes, IMO, Jed follows exactly how TR wants to build a team. Intelligent spending, no crazy contracts, build a good minor league system, keep the payroll within a reasonable level, etc, etc….. However, TR might feel ownership gives him enough to win. And he hasn’t won.  If Tom was so happy with Jed this wouldn’t be a lame duck year. And so far, it is. I honestly think Tom thinks he gives Jed enough money and enough freedom to build a winning team. So if he doesn’t this year he might be gone. 

I could agree with this for sure.  I personally don't know what the business goal is.  Tom shouldn't be happy at all if winning was important to him.  I also don't think winning is important to him.  Of course he would prefer to win, but I don't think it means the world to him.  

This is Jed's last year of his contract, or he's getting extended.  Neither would surprise me.  I just don't have any indication that winning is important to Tom.  Every single thing he's done to the field, and around the field is to generate more revenue.   It's a pretty long list of investments.  He just hasn't chose to invest in the actual team.  Maybe this off season? 

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, thawv said:

As far as the fans go, it's a make or break season.  But we don't know how Tom feels about him.  On the surface, it appears that he's content to happy with the job Jed has done. 

If I were Ricketts i'd be not disappointed about missing the playoffs the last couple of years (21-22 Jed had some budget cuts and lost the core so more understandable), but i'd be happy he hasn't wasted a lot of my money on bad longterm deals.  Jed could have easily spent to win-now and made himself look good then bounced before big contracts started to age poorly.

Would be weird to axe him without at least waiting to see the fruits of most the prospects acquired when he was first was hired.  I'd give him 2025 and 26.  As i've said I think his biggest flaw is overpaying for below-average players on the shorter deals.

[Stratos]

12 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I’m not sure this is true. Yes, IMO, Jed follows exactly how TR wants to build a team. Intelligent spending, no crazy contracts, build a good minor league system, keep the payroll within a reasonable level, etc, etc….. However, TR might feel ownership gives him enough to win. And he hasn’t won.  If Tom was so happy with Jed this wouldn’t be a lame duck year. And so far, it is. I honestly think Tom thinks he gives Jed enough money and enough freedom to build a winning team. So if he doesn’t this year he might be gone. 

Agree with this.  If you're Tom you have to be annoyed that the Cubs trade/lose their 4 best players plus Darvish and it takes several years to rebuild and counting but the Brewers lose Burnes, Woodruff, Hader, and Counsell and don't skip a beat.

[Rcal10]

24 minutes ago, Stratos said:

If I were Ricketts i'd be not disappointed about missing the playoffs the last couple of years (21-22 Jed had some budget cuts and lost the core so more understandable), but i'd be happy he hasn't wasted a lot of my money on bad longterm deals.  Jed could have easily spent to win-now and made himself look good then bounced before big contracts started to age poorly.

Would be weird to axe him without at least waiting to see the fruits of most the prospects acquired when he was first was hired.  I'd give him 2025 and 26.  As i've said I think his biggest flaw is overpaying for below-average players on the shorter deals.

He couldn’t sign guys to long term contracts. Tom would have fired him by now had he done that. I think Jed has had enough time and enough money and resources to build a winning team. Or at the very least, I would think Tom thinks that way. I doubt very much he is happy with the last few years. 

[Stratos]

26 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

He couldn’t sign guys to long term contracts. Tom would have fired him by now had he done that. I think Jed has had enough time and enough money and resources to build a winning team. Or at the very least, I would think Tom thinks that way. I doubt very much he is happy with the last few years. 

I don't think we know how much its been Tom vs Jed with the longterm contracts.  But note that under Ricketts and Theo/Jed the Cubs have NEVER signed a superstar FA deal.  The Heyward deal was similar to the Swanson deal and both weren't top WAR or MVP types.

Not sure if Theo ever signed a huge deal with the Red Sox.

Edited October 17, 2024 by Stratos

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

I don't think we know how much its been Tom vs Jed with the longterm contracts.  But note that under Ricketts and Theo/Jed the Cubs have NEVER signed a superstar FA deal.  The Heyward deal was similar to the Swanson deal and both weren't top WAR or MVP types.

Not sure if Theo ever signed a huge deal with the Red Sox.

 

Edited October 17, 2024 by Rcal10

[Bertz]

46 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I don't think we know how much its been Tom vs Jed with the longterm contracts.  But note that under Ricketts and Theo/Jed the Cubs have NEVER signed a superstar FA deal.  The Heyward deal was similar to the Swanson deal and both weren't top WAR or MVP types.

Not sure if Theo ever signed a huge deal with the Red Sox.

I think you're missing inflation.  Pretty sure when Heyward signed it was one of the 10-15 biggest deals ever.  Lester I believe was a top 10 pitcher contract at the time.  Here's a list that I believe is up to date or at least good through last year's free agency:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

I've made this argument before last offseason, but one thing we should be careful of is conflating "never" and "not yet."  Last year Andrew Friedman went full Steinbrenner, but prior to that he was very reticent to do top of market free agent deals. 

He signed Greinke to a top of market deal in 2013, and after that nothing until Mookie Betts in 2020 (technically an extension but spiritually fits with FA deals IMO).  And in the nearly four years between Betts and Ohtani the only big deal he signed was Freddie Freeman, who got big money for a 1B but less money than Dansby Swanson.

I do think Jed is exceedingly conservative and will remain so, but I do think if circumstances can greatly impact where a GM draws the lines.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

I think you're missing inflation.  Pretty sure when Heyward signed it was one of the 10-15 biggest deals ever.  Lester I believe was a top 10 pitcher contract at the time.  Here's a list that I believe is up to date or at least good through last year's free agency:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

I've made this argument before last offseason, but one thing we should be careful of is conflating "never" and "not yet."  Last year Andrew Friedman went full Steinbrenner, but prior to that he was very reticent to do top of market free agent deals. 

He signed Greinke to a top of market deal in 2013, and after that nothing until Mookie Betts in 2020 (technically an extension but spiritually fits with FA deals IMO).  And in the nearly four years between Betts and Ohtani the only big deal he signed was Freddie Freeman, who got big money for a 1B but less money than Dansby Swanson.

I do think Jed is exceedingly conservative and will remain so, but I do think if circumstances can greatly impact where a GM draws the lines.

I hope he does get aggressive this year and we end up with Soto. This would be a good time to go big, IMO. 

[Stratos]

52 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think you're missing inflation.  Pretty sure when Heyward signed it was one of the 10-15 biggest deals ever.  Lester I believe was a top 10 pitcher contract at the time.  Here's a list that I believe is up to date or at least good through last year's free agency:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

I've made this argument before last offseason, but one thing we should be careful of is conflating "never" and "not yet."  Last year Andrew Friedman went full Steinbrenner, but prior to that he was very reticent to do top of market free agent deals. 

He signed Greinke to a top of market deal in 2013, and after that nothing until Mookie Betts in 2020 (technically an extension but spiritually fits with FA deals IMO).  And in the nearly four years between Betts and Ohtani the only big deal he signed was Freddie Freeman, who got big money for a 1B but less money than Dansby Swanson.

I do think Jed is exceedingly conservative and will remain so, but I do think if circumstances can greatly impact where a GM draws the lines.

I don't see Jed (or Theo) grabbing a top 29 y/o player and signing him for 10 years.  It doesn't really make a lot of sense.  If they ever sign a mega deal I assume it will be for a young FA like the Soto/Yamamoto/Harper type so they get max prime years.

The Heyward signing was also a value signing in a way, they paid for ages 26-33.  If he followed a typical regression curve it would have been a solid FA contract especially for an 8-year deal.

Above all i think Jed/Theo are data-driven and a deal like Trea Turner/Bogaerts for 10/300 doesn't add up given they were 30 y/o,

[Cuzi]

Theo Epstein would have absolutely been in the market for some of these recent top FA signings.

Theo signed Jon Lester a year before he believed the team was ready to make a real playoff push. He traded one of his best prospects for a rental closer in 2016. Then he traded Soler for another rental closer the following offseason. Then he traded 2 of his best prospects for the hottest name on the pitching market with years of control. Then he signed Craig Kimbrel to a multiyear deal. Theo routinely sought out the best. People talk about Jed being held back by Ricketts, but I'm pretty confident if the owners would have ok'd the money for Bryce Harper then Harper would be on the Cubs. Hoyer has yet to show anywhere near the same aggression in making the team better. There's no shot in hell Theo would have walked out damn near the same identical team as last season.

Edited October 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

8 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Theo Epstein would have absolutely been in the market for some of these recent top FA signings.

Theo signed Jon Lester a year before he believed the team was ready to make a real playoff push. He traded one of his best prospects for a rental closer in 2016. Then he traded Soler for another rental closer the following offseason. Then he traded 2 of his best prospects for the hottest name on the pitching market with years of control. Then he signed Craig Kimbrel to a multiyear deal. Theo routinely sought out the best. People talk about Jed being held back by Ricketts, but I'm pretty confident if the owners would have ok'd the money for Bryce Harper then Harper would be on the Cubs. Hoyer has yet to show anywhere near the same aggression in making the team better. There's no shot in hell Theo would have walked out damn near the same identical team as last season.

I don’t disagree with you on Theo. But I do think among other reasons, one of the reasons he left a year early and/or didn’t re-up with the Cubs was his philosophy was different that Tom’s. I do not think Tom was comfortable with spending what Theo wanted to spend. I think Jed is much less aggressive. I completely agree with that. But I also think he is still the president of baseball opts because he isn’t as aggressive. However, as has been pointed out in previous posts, not being aggressive up until now and “never will be aggressive” can change in one off season. Jed was aggressive with Otani. He just had no chance. Let’s see if he gets aggressive with Soto. There are no excuses for him not to. 

[squally1313]

9 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Theo Epstein would have absolutely been in the market for some of these recent top FA signings.

Theo signed Jon Lester a year before he believed the team was ready to make a real playoff push. He traded one of his best prospects for a rental closer in 2016. Then he traded Soler for another rental closer the following offseason. Then he traded 2 of his best prospects for the hottest name on the pitching market with years of control. Then he signed Craig Kimbrel to a multiyear deal. Theo routinely sought out the best. People talk about Jed being held back by Ricketts, but I'm pretty confident if the owners would have ok'd the money for Bryce Harper then Harper would be on the Cubs. Hoyer has yet to show anywhere near the same aggression in making the team better. There's no shot in hell Theo would have walked out damn near the same identical team as last season.

Wait, are we supposed to be criticizing Hoyer because, in this hypothetical, he wouldn't have traded Eloy and Cease for Quintana? Or that he wouldn't have given Kimbrel $40m for 1.1 fWAR over essentially 2 years?

[Cuzi]

53 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Wait, are we supposed to be criticizing Hoyer because, in this hypothetical, he wouldn't have traded Eloy and Cease for Quintana? Or that he wouldn't have given Kimbrel $40m for 1.1 fWAR over essentially 2 years?

Epstein took risks. Some of those risks didn't pay off. Would you like to compare which was more successful at building a winning team?

Theo broke 2 curses. Hoyer has yet to build a playoff roster.

Edited October 17, 2024 by Cuzi