Cubs (Taillon) vs Guardians (Cobb): 8/14/24, 5:40pm

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

I was a little skeptical initially but I think that's probably right. Next year you could probably expect/rely on Busch and Suzuki putting up better offensive numbers. It wouldn't be significantly better, but it would be offset a little by generally expecting Belli and Paredes to put up similar production to Happ. Throw an elite bat on top of all of that (and league average offense from Nico and Dansby)... I don't know. It seems like plenty. But getting more than a little discouraged at the results. 

Agreed. But who does that elite bat replace? You named 5 similar guys with Suzuki and Busch being the best. Then you add in Swanson and Hoerner. That’s 7. You have a catcher. That makes 8. And then PCA. So does the big bat replace,  PCA? Or do they go with basically 10 starters for 9 positions? TBH, the results should be better now. This team should be a team 10 games over .500. With the names they have in their line up, if all played to their career numbers it should be a good line up. The rotation has been solid. And I just saw yesterday that the Cubs pen era was 7th in baseball. I know the record is all that matters, but this team should be better. It is very frustrating. 

Edited August 15, 2024 by Rcal10

[squally1313]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Agreed. But who does that elite bat replace? You named 5 similar guys with Suzuki and Busch being the best. Then you add in Swanson and Hoerner. That’s 7. You have a catcher. That makes 8. And then PCA. So does the big bat replace,  PCA? Or do they go with basically 10 starters for 9 positions? TBH, the results should be better now. This team should be a team 10 games over .500. With the names they have in their line up, if all played to their career numbers it should be a good line up. The rotation has been solid. And I just saw yesterday that the Cubs pen era was 7th in baseball. I know the record is all that matters, but this team should be better. It is very frustrating. 

Well on the frustration side of things, it's probably fair to say I'm hand waving a lot of potential issues in that plan. Hoerner is at 93 wRC, Swanson at 83. So league average is probably a stretch, but those are still both guys that are going to comfortably end up north of 3 fWAR. We used Happ as a baseline of 120 wRC (his numbers this year). Bellinger is at 111. Busch and Suzuki are both at 126, which is barely ahead, and that K rate from Busch remains a concern. 

Agreed you end up in a 10 guys for 9 spots situation bringing in an outside bat, but that's fine for me. It's basically 6 guys for 5 spots unless you want to fake it with Busch at second or third, but it's still fine. Trade for Tucker or Robert, sign Soto, there really shouldn't be an option that we can't work into the current roster. 

[Cuzi]

How do you get 10 games over .500 with this team? They have a +3 RD. They are a .500 team by definition.

Dansby Swansons career wRC+ is 94.

Nico Hoerners career wRC+ is 98.

Bellingers career wRC+ is 118.

Swanson is the only one "significantly" underperforming his career numbers as he sits at 83 wRC+ right now.

This team is just overwhelmingly mediocre. It was built for death by a thousand cuts by focusing on strong defense and pitching over strong offense. It's just a bleh roster. We've got a PoBO that doesn't want to sign long term contracts because they dont have a ton of value in the long run. But... he'll spend $69M on his top 3 contracts a year for 5.9 fWAR while he could spend $27M less a year for a guy like Soto and get 7.3 fWAR. It's just a flawed way of team building.

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Well on the frustration side of things, it's probably fair to say I'm hand waving a lot of potential issues in that plan. Hoerner is at 93 wRC, Swanson at 83. So league average is probably a stretch, but those are still both guys that are going to comfortably end up north of 3 fWAR. We used Happ as a baseline of 120 wRC (his numbers this year). Bellinger is at 111. Busch and Suzuki are both at 126, which is barely ahead, and that K rate from Busch remains a concern. 

Agreed you end up in a 10 guys for 9 spots situation bringing in an outside bat, but that's fine for me. It's basically 6 guys for 5 spots unless you want to fake it with Busch at second or third, but it's still fine. Trade for Tucker or Robert, sign Soto, there really shouldn't be an option that we can't work into the current roster. 

I agree with the 10 guys for 9 positions and they bring in a big bat. I also agree on it being either Soto (by far my first choice). Next choice would be Tucker. And final trade choice would be Vlad. I am honestly not sure about Robert. He has lost a lot of value IMO. If they did trade for him it would have to be for less than what the Sox are expecting right now. After that I guess Alonso is an option as a FA. 

Edited August 15, 2024 by Rcal10

[Cuzi]

So Hoyer just said he expects this team to be over the LT by the end of the year. How do you operate in a way that you are focusing on 2025 and wind up going over the tax in a year you started under and then gave up on? This guy is a clown.

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

So Hoyer just said he expects this team to be over the LT by the end of the year. How do you operate in a way that you are focusing on 2025 and wind up going over the tax in a year you started under and then gave up on? This guy is a clown.

That is just ridiculous if they are over.

[UMFan83]

42 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

So Hoyer just said he expects this team to be over the LT by the end of the year. How do you operate in a way that you are focusing on 2025 and wind up going over the tax in a year you started under and then gave up on? This guy is a clown.

Just adding some details from twitter to your statement:

 

I have absolutely no idea why Jed would specifically single out Cody Bellinger's contract but it definitely seems like there's an agenda behind this.  Maybe he's trying to goad Bellinger into opting out or something.  Ridiculous comment from someone who is paying guys like Mancini and Barnhart millions this season.

What are the consequences for this?  Are we planning to slash payroll this winter to ensure we're back under again, or are we going to roll with it and continue adding knowing that eventually we'll have to reset the clock?

Seems like very poor management either way.

Edited August 15, 2024 by UMFan83

[Cuzi]

37 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

What are the consequences for this?

Hopefully his damn job.

It's beyond malpractice to decide this isn't the year and focus on next year, only to STILL go over the tax in a lost season right before someone like Juan Soto is hitting the market. Jed Hoyer has a level of dumbfuckery that knows no bounds.

[CubinNY]

To whoever said is Cleveland really good? 
 

Yes, yes they are. They are tied for the best record in baseball. That makes them a good team. 

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Hopefully his damn job.

It's beyond malpractice to decide this isn't the year and focus on next year, only to STILL go over the tax in a lost season right before someone like Juan Soto is hitting the market. Jed Hoyer has a level of dumbfuckery that knows no bounds.

I agree. This is something he should lose his job because of. I have defended Jed on more than one occasion. But going over the LT this year is inexcusable. There is no defense for this. 

[thawv]

15 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Just adding some details from twitter to your statement:

 

I have absolutely no idea why Jed would specifically single out Cody Bellinger's contract but it definitely seems like there's an agenda behind this.  Maybe he's trying to goad Bellinger into opting out or something.  Ridiculous comment from someone who is paying guys like Mancini and Barnhart millions this season.

What are the consequences for this?  Are we planning to slash payroll this winter to ensure we're back under again, or are we going to roll with it and continue adding knowing that eventually we'll have to reset the clock?

Seems like very poor management either way.

I don't understand this at all.  Is Belli getting a 4 million dollar raise in September?  I see nothing to indicate that they are over the cap right now.  How are they adding to payroll from this day on?  I think he's lying because he's tired of hearing the "cheap" talk about spending.  

Either way, he's near the first level with a .500 caliber team!  He's assembled a team with average to maybe a couple of good players.  The prospects are projected to be average to above average, and are not very impressive at this moment.  I can't believe how bad he is at his job.  But I'm also assuming that winning a WS is his job. 

Edited August 16, 2024 by thawv

[CubinNY]

7 minutes ago, thawv said:

I don't understand this at all.  Is Belli getting a 4 million dollar raise in September?  I see nothing to indicate that they are over the cap right now.  How are they adding to payroll from this day on?  I think he's lying because he's tired of hearing the "cheap" talk about spending.  

Either way, he's near the first level with a .500 caliber team!  He's assembled a team with average to maybe a couple of good players.  The prospects are projected to be average to above average, and are not very impressive at this moment.  I can't believe how bad he is at his job.  But I'm also assuming the winning a WS is his job. 

Very well put. They are running a mid market team with top 5 revenue and paying premium prices to do it. They have what they want to keep Wrigley and their fancy Motel 6 full of out-of-towners.

If they hit on some prospects and positive variance they may win another WS.

[squally1313]

People smarter than me around here have actually run the scenarios on being barely over the LT this year and the actual consequences are pretty minimal. Not sure why Hoyer would bring it up and call attention to it on his own given that the team didn't actually play good, but this isn't some potential gigantic screw up that some people are making it out to be.