Minor League Placements for 2025

[Bertz]

47 minutes ago, allen6510w said:

As we await the signing of MiL FAs and additional trades, here is one possible arrangement of players. 

It'll be interesting to see when Cole Mathis is cleared to play IF and whether he starts at 1B or 3B.  

I would think even conservatively Mathis could DH by Opening Day, play 1B by Memorial Day, and play 3B by the ASB

[allen6510w]

The recent signing of Carlos Perez gives the Cubs the option of leaving Pablo Aliendo in AA to begin the season. 

Arm permitting, Cole Mathis could slide into the 1B position at low-A to start the season, with a mid-season promotion to high-A and shift to 3B possible. 

Drew Bowser and Matt Halbach are two recent draftees that could move into starting roles this spring with a strong spring if others falter. 

Fernando Cruz signed for a heck of a lot of money.  Will he be given a mulligan for last year and given a shot to earn a starting spot in the ACL this spring?

 

 

[allen6510w]

With Vidal Brujan being out of options, the Cubs may opt to begin 2025 with Luis Vazquez as the AAA SS. 

Edited December 30, 2024 by allen6510w

[allen6510w]

Rich Biesterfeld posted a picture of Fernando Cruz in Mesa yesterday.  So .... that may answer the question as to whether Fernando will repeat the DSL this summer. 

[Bertz]

With nearly 3 months til opening day you'd presume he can play 1B from jump.  Then 3B by midseason?

[Jason Ross]

That's be my hope. 1b/DH to start, maybe by June(ish) some work towards 3b and by MiLB ASB full time 3b work. 

I love the bat and he had some of the absolute best statcast data in the NCAA ranks. Crushed the Cape too. 

[allen6510w]

With February a few hours away - 

 

[allen6510w]

It'll be interesting to see if Cade Horton is stretched out as a starter or converted to the bullpen. 

Nate Pearson could also be stretched out as a AAA starter.  Other possibilities include Walker Powell and Brad Keller. 

The health status or roster status (DSL or US)  is in question (for me at least)  for players in italics. 

Several of the possible starters could be converted to the bullpen of course.  In fact, several of them are so wild it is probably more likely than not. 

 

Several projected rookie level starters and/or position players could end up spending 2025 in the DSL - again.  We'll see. 

 

 

Edited February 14, 2025 by allen6510w

[CubinNY]

6 minutes ago, allen6510w said:

It'll be interesting to see if Cade Horton is stretched out as a starter or converted to the bullpen. 

Nate Pearson could also be stretched out as a AAA starter.  Other possibilities include Walker Powell and Brad Keller. 

The health status or roster status (DSL or US)  is in question (for me at least)  for players in italics. 

Several of the possible starters could be converted to the bullpen of course.  In fact, several of them are so wild it is probably more likely than not. 

 

Several projected rookie level starters and/or position players could end up spending 2025 in the DSL - again.  We'll see. 

 

 

I'd imagine the plan for Horton is to start but he won't be ready until May and will be on an innings limit. I'd be shocked if they don't hold him back. 

[Bertz]

38 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I'd imagine the plan for Horton is to start but he won't be ready until May and will be on an innings limit. I'd be shocked if they don't hold him back. 

Citation?

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

Citation?

speculation. More due to innings than injury

Edited February 14, 2025 by CubinNY

[Outshined_One]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

speculation. More due to innings than injury

By "ready", did you mean "ready to start" or "ready to pitch"?  Pretty sure it's the former, but your post was a smidge ambiguous.

[Jason Ross]

Considering Horton got to camp as one of the earliest participants, I wouldn't expect he's going to miss April in Iowa. 

Instead, I suspect the Cubs will use him as a starter in limited innings. Id guess he only goes 2 IP for his first starts and settles in as a 3 IP guy shortly after for a bit. I doubt we see him go 4 or more for a little bit, but they won't keep him in Arizona for three months if he's already throwing and seems healthy and okay right now.

[Bertz]

On 2/14/2025 at 1:47 PM, allen6510w said:

It'll be interesting to see if Cade Horton is stretched out as a starter or converted to the bullpen. 

Nate Pearson could also be stretched out as a AAA starter.  Other possibilities include Walker Powell and Brad Keller. 

The health status or roster status (DSL or US)  is in question (for me at least)  for players in italics. 

Several of the possible starters could be converted to the bullpen of course.  In fact, several of them are so wild it is probably more likely than not. 

 

Several projected rookie level starters and/or position players could end up spending 2025 in the DSL - again.  We'll see. 

 

 

I would guess the Iowa rotation looks quite a bit different than that to open the year.  Brown and Horton seem almost certain to be there, and I suspect Assad's oblique injury combined with how stuffed the MLB bullpen is will push Assad to the Iowa rotation and have Rea open the year as the big league #5.

Kilian I would think is done as a SP. and Noland got smacked around at Iowa a bit so dropping down to Tenn for a month or two isn't the end of the world for his development.

[allen6510w]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I would guess the Iowa rotation looks quite a bit different than that to open the year.  Brown and Horton seem almost certain to be there, and I suspect Assad's oblique injury combined with how stuffed the MLB bullpen is will push Assad to the Iowa rotation and have Rea open the year as the big league #5.

Kilian I would think is done as a SP. and Noland got smacked around at Iowa a bit so dropping down to Tenn for a month or two isn't the end of the world for his development.

Thanks.  I'm sure you're right about the "quite a bit different" part.   I also hope Horton will start the year in the AAA rotation but was wondering if they would hold him back a bit so that he is strong in September.  Makes sense to also start Brown there too given the roster is full. 

[allen6510w]

Versatile Jaylen Palmer (3B, 1B, and LF in 2024) signed with the Cubs a few weeks ago and could be given an opportunity to win the 3B job at Iowa.  From 2020-2022, he was one of the Mets #15-20 prospects.  Power, some speed, but many K's. 

It'll be interesting to see if the Cubs promote Robin Ortiz from the DSL, go with the older but less exciting Darlyn De Leon, or another option.   Darlyn made the mid-season DSL all star team last year in his 3rd year in the DSL.   

 

 

 

Matt Thompson, who was hard to hit last year in AA but had marginal control, was released by the Cubs last week.  Hopefully, the early release helps him find a new opportunity.  Chris Flexen may have an opt out clause.  

Arizona Phil, who knows about 15x as much about baseball as me, put out a projected AAA starting rotation a few days ago  SP: Pearson, Wicks, Brown, Kilian, Poteet, Noland, and eventually Assad, Horton, and Birdsell; 

Edited March 3, 2025 by allen6510w

[Bertz]

If the team actually thinks Pearson can cut it as a starter, cool.

If that is just a roster management play, that's really stupid. 

The fact that Pearson has only gone one inning each in his two spring training outings says it's the latter.  Hopefully Phil is wrong.

[craig]

Allen, thanks for your charts, helpful.  Any info on Brody McCullough, who you have deep on your AA rotation?  Drafted 3 years ago, turns 25 in June.  but has mostly been injured and has only 108 pro innings.  Did we ever get info on what his injuries actually were?  Any guess if he'll be healthy enough to pitch?  I'm wondering if he's a guy who, *IF* he's healthy enough to pitch, will get another shot at rotation?  Or if he's maybe too old and injured for rotation development, and might just be a bullpen piece?  

[craig]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

If the team actually thinks Pearson can cut it as a starter, cool.

If that is just a roster management play, that's really stupid. 

The fact that Pearson has only gone one inning each in his two spring training outings says it's the latter.  Hopefully Phil is wrong.

Not sure I'm tracking?  I don't think Pearson will be considered by the Cubs for rotation.  Unless he unexpectedly shows something unexpectedly interesting in that role at Iowa.

But from a developmental standpoint, if he's going to Iowa anyway, why would having him start versus relieve at Iowa be really stupid, or hurt him developmentally?  I'd think racking up more innings might be good for him developmentally, and give him more opportunities to practice whatever pitches or grips he's trying to optimize.  And if he's extended so that he could be a long 3-inning guy on occasion, and have no problem handling 2 inning outings, why would that be so stupid?  

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, craig said:

But from a developmental standpoint, if he's going to Iowa anyway,

That's the part I'm taking issue with.  Unless they think he's got a real chance as a starter, or there have been red flags in what he's done on the backfields this spring, he shouldn't be at Iowa.  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

39 minutes ago, craig said:

Allen, thanks for your charts, helpful.  Any info on Brody McCullough, who you have deep on your AA rotation?  Drafted 3 years ago, turns 25 in June.  but has mostly been injured and has only 108 pro innings.  Did we ever get info on what his injuries actually were?  Any guess if he'll be healthy enough to pitch?  I'm wondering if he's a guy who, *IF* he's healthy enough to pitch, will get another shot at rotation?  Or if he's maybe too old and injured for rotation development, and might just be a bullpen piece?  

He hurt his knee backing up a play on the last day of the 2023 season and had offseason knee surgery. Then, after he came back for a few starts in 2024, he missed the rest of the season with a shoulder strain.

I've seen pictures of him throwing in the backfields this spring so it looks like he's healthy.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

If the team actually thinks Pearson can cut it as a starter, cool.

If that is just a roster management play, that's really stupid. 

The fact that Pearson has only gone one inning each in his two spring training outings says it's the latter.  Hopefully Phil is wrong.

This spring Counsell said they see Pearson as a reliever.  A reporter asked the question.

What could happen in Iowa though, who knows.  But for the MLB team this spring he's a reliever.

Edited March 3, 2025 by Stratos

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

This spring Counsell said they see Pearson as a reliever.  A reporter asked the question.

The problem with Arizona Phil is he is well sourced, he's acutely intimate with roster management minutiae, but his baseball opinions are so so bad.  It's a bit of Russian roulette reading him.

[craig]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

That's the part I'm taking issue with.  Unless they think he's got a real chance as a starter, or there have been red flags in what he's done on the backfields this spring, he shouldn't be at Iowa.  

You're a believer and think he's earned a big-league spot? 

• I'm kinda agnostic.  I'd love to have him emerge as a good big-league reliever. 
• But, kinda feel like that's up to him to prove it?  He's got a clear opportunity to win a spot this camp.  But not sure I'd just tenure him a roster spot based on past history, if he doesn't kinda win it in camp?  
• He's been a career 4.75-ERA guy, with a kinda bad fastball, high HR rate, and pedestrian K-rate, in past. 
• I hope he's a new and better man, 100% healthy, and that health and  "Cubs infrastructure" will get more out of him future than he's produced past.  Would **love** to have him look sharp in camp, look like he's a better pitcher than he was, have him win a job, have him emerged as a good reliever, and have him be good for years of club control.  That would be wonderful. 
• But if he doesn't sparkle in camp, I'm fine to option him; give him another chance to prove he's improved and to earn a shot back.  First three X games underwhelming, 1K and 1.8 WHIP.  No sparkle yet.
• With Assad out, two spots between Wicks, Brown, Miller, Pearson, Keegan, and non-roster guys.  Not the most imposing competition, so Pearson may JAG his way to roster even without looking good in camp.  
• Keller has opt out, Keegan and Miller no options.  If for hypothetical example Keller looks better than Pearson in camp, I'd have no problem keeping Keller and optioning Pearson.  If Pearson is improved and is ready to be a good major leaguer, he'll get his chance soon enough.  

[Bertz]

15 minutes ago, craig said:

You're a believer and think he's earned a big-league spot? 

• I'm kinda agnostic.  I'd love to have him emerge as a good big-league reliever. 
• But, kinda feel like that's up to him to prove it?  He's got a clear opportunity to win a spot this camp.  But not sure I'd just tenure him a roster spot based on past history, if he doesn't kinda win it in camp?  
• He's been a career 4.75-ERA guy, with a kinda bad fastball, high HR rate, and pedestrian K-rate, in past. 
• I hope he's a new and better man, 100% healthy, and that health and  "Cubs infrastructure" will get more out of him future than he's produced past.  Would **love** to have him look sharp in camp, look like he's a better pitcher than he was, have him win a job, have him emerged as a good reliever, and have him be good for years of club control.  That would be wonderful. 
• But if he doesn't sparkle in camp, I'm fine to option him; give him another chance to prove he's improved and to earn a shot back.  First three X games underwhelming, 1K and 1.8 WHIP.  No sparkle yet.
• With Assad out, two spots between Wicks, Brown, Miller, Pearson, Keegan, and non-roster guys.  Not the most imposing competition, so Pearson may JAG his way to roster even without looking good in camp.  
• Keller has opt out, Keegan and Miller no options.  If for hypothetical example Keller looks better than Pearson in camp, I'd have no problem keeping Keller and optioning Pearson.  If Pearson is improved and is ready to be a good major leaguer, he'll get his chance soon enough.  

The last time this team played games that counted, Pearson was the #2 in the bullpen pecking order and getting legitimate leverage innings.  Pearson had a 2.73 ERA and 3.65 xFIP as a Cub while making on the fly mechanical adjustments.

Like if Pearson's getting sent down, shouldn't we also send Hodge down to keep one of those out of options pitchers?  I mean he doesn't have much track record either.  As recently as last June he had a 5.74 ERA and a nearly 16% walk rate in AAA.  Go to AAA and prove you can still throw strikes in the new calendar year, right?

If Pearson looks broken during his side work this spring, sure, that's one thing.  If we're sending him down for roster management then Jed has lost the plot.  "The new and improved Brad Keller topped out at 98!"  Cool.  For Nate Pearson that's just a normal Tuesday.