Looking At The Prospects The Cubs Acquired In The Mark Leiter Jr Trade

[Jason Ross]

Today, the Cubs made a move, sending Mark Leiter Jr. to the New York Yankees in exchange for right-handed pitcher Jack Neely and infielder Ben Cowles. Who did the Cubs get back in the trade, and what should we expect from each of them?

Image courtesy of Jack Neely

When the Cubs signed Mark Leiter Jr. a while back, he was a complete lottery ticket. Already 30 years old and a clear journeyman in the league, the Cubs worked with his pitch and turned him into a fairly deadly 7th—and 8th-inning option, especially using his split-finger fastball against left-handed hitters. Today, the Cubs cashed in that lottery ticket and came away with two prospects on the back end: right-handed pitcher Jack Neely and infielder Benjamin Cowles.

---

Jack Neely
Jack Neely is instantly recognizable simply for his 6"8 frame; he's huge. Drafted in the 11th round out of Ohio State, the right-hander just turned 24 years old a little over a month ago. Working with a pitch FanGraphs calls a "plus slider" and a fastball that has averaged roughly 95mph in Triple-A, it's a pretty standard two-pitch right-handed bullpen repertoire. With his size, however, comes the normal caveat of "control" because controlling a frame that large becomes cumbersome (i.e., see the Cubs' own Luke Little). 

Neely relies on the slider against righties (as he should), throwing it nearly 50% of the time in his 10 Triple-A innings. When he's capable of throwing the pitch for strikes, he gets big in-zone whiffs but does tend to struggle with location on this pitch, throwing it non-competitively nearly one out of every three times. While not amazing, the fastball does play up due to his 6'8" frame and extension (though he doesn't get as much extension as you'd wish you could see!). 

Regardless, Neely has the look and the profile of a capable back-end reliever if he can dial in the slider more and throw strikes. The size, the velocity, and the slider are a combination that could see a K% sitting well above 25% and make him an intimidating pitcher to hit against. There's a good chance we'll see Neely pretty soon in Chicago, as he's probably right on the precipice of being MLB-ready.  The thought of the Cubs going with a 7th/8th of Luke Little to Jack Neely would surely be a fun thing to see; human beings you'd be more likely to see (physicality-wise) at the United Center with the Bulls than on a pitching mound. 

---

Benjamin Cowles
Ben Cowles was not considered among the Yankees' better prospects in pre-season. Entering the year, the M.O. on Cowles was that he was a capable defender at more than one position but struggled with bat-to-ball skills, which showed with inflated K% throughout his MiLB career. In 2023, Cowles posted a decent 109 wRC+ as a 23-year-old in Double-A but had a K% nearing 28% - that's just not good enough, and there should be no blame that anyone left him off top-30 lists. 

The good news is that Cowles, a 2021 draft pick out of Maryland (and former teammate of current Cub prospect Matt Shaw), put some work into his approach, and the results are showing. In 2024, thus far, the utility infielder has lowered his K% to 17.7% (a 10% reduction) while maintaining his double-digit walk rates, improving his ISO by .40 points, and seeing no shift in BABIP. This has resulted in a jump from 109 wRC+ to 140 wRC+, among Double-A leaders in average and OBP. Now, it should be noted that he is 24, but he's not a repeater which surprised me. The Yankees moved him from Hihg-A directly to Triple-A at the very end of the year. According to an article from BA, this is when he realized he needed to change his swing. He worked on this during the AFL (where he was a teammate of Triantos and Alcantara) and the results this year are impressive. So while he's "overaged" for Double-A this is his first go at the level.

Cowles, however, has shown that there's an MLB ceiling when there didn't appear to be one. He's able to play second, shortstop, and third base, and while all three positions are manned, and some have prospects who project to be better than Cowles at the next level, a role as a bench player capable of playing multiple positions well is on the table. An improved version of Miles Mastrobuoni feels like a realistic and potential outcome. He is also rule-5 eligible, meaning the Cubs will almost assuredly need to protect him come this winter. Sadly, Ben was recently hit by a pitch and placed on the 7-day injured list on July 26th, so it will likely be a bit before we see him at a Cub MiLB affiliate, but he's probably Triple-A ready whenever he's healthy.

---

Overall, I find little fault with the return. I don't think it will be a sexy trade from a prospect ranking perspective. There's no Dylan Lesko shock value here. But I also think it's a solid return. The Cubs lost Hunter Bigge in the Christopher Morel/Isaac Paredes swap and replaced him with Jack Neely. They've also added a pretty interesting player who could be a useful 250-300 PA kind of guy at multiple positions with a bit of upside that maybe there's even more there. And they did so for a player they signed off the scrap heap a few years ago. 

 

View full article

 

[Donzo]

Good stuff, TY!

I read AZ Phil's comment on the trade. He likes these two a lot.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Feels like Neeley could drive off the mound and get quite a bit more extension. It doesn't look like he uses his frame to his advantage. I imagine the Yankees have tried to work with this and here's hoping the Cubs find a comfort zone for him with it. 

 

 

[Guest234]

What is the mathematics on a very tall pitcher throwing very hard leveraging his elbow to the point of TJ surgery?

[We Got The Whole 9]

4 minutes ago, Guest234 said:

What is the mathematics on a very tall pitcher throwing very hard leveraging his elbow to the point of TJ surgery?

About the same as any pitcher 

[Guest234]

Is this data based?

I have a guess that this has never been measured and recorded, I personally don't think it could be measured - maybe with stop action and AI deployment.

[Tryptamine]

Albeit a very small sample size, Neely has been a monster with the Cub organization so far.

4 2/3IP 4H 1R 0ER 8K 1BB 

That's a 15.43 K/9, 1.93 BB/9, 0 ERA,  .74 FIP,  1.07 WHIP and this is all happening while his babip is .400. 

 

[Post Count Padder]

4 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Albeit a very small sample size, Neely has been a monster with the Cub organization so far.

4 2/3IP 4H 1R 0ER 8K 1BB 

That's a 15.43 K/9, 1.93 BB/9, 0 ERA,  .74 FIP,  1.07 WHIP and this is all happening while his babip is .400. 

 

I know his upside is limited due to being a reliever and the people who (claim to) know things don't peg his stuff as closer material, but he has passed the eye test easily and has the numbers to back it up. I'm not against giving him a Sept call up and at the very least giving him a chance to make the OD pen.