Cubs (Imanaga) vs Orioles (Burnes): 7/10/24, 5:35pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Cubs blew out the Orioles yesterday, I can comfortably say I did not see that coming. Well done. Should be a great pitching matchup tonight.

[Bertz]

Fun matchup, though I hadn't noticed how much Burnes' K-rate has dropped this year.  Despite the sparkling ERA he's probably not an ace anymore.  Still very good but more Justin Steele than Cy Young.

Not related to tonight, but the Cards getting rained out last night and having their DH today looks like it's going to have us miss Sonny Gray this weekend.

[CubinNY]

I think there is a little bit of a fire lit under this team as they head to the ASB. It's likely not sustainable, but in a short series, all bets are off. 

I can see the Cubs winning this game if Shota can keep the ball in the yard. 

[Derwood]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Fun matchup, though I hadn't noticed how much Burnes' K-rate has dropped this year.  Despite the sparkling ERA he's probably not an ace anymore.  Still very good but more Justin Steele than Cy Young.

Not related to tonight, but the Cards getting rained out last night and having their DH today looks like it's going to have us miss Sonny Gray this weekend.

Burnes is outperforming his xFIP by a full run

[Tryptamine]

Busch up to a 137 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR. That 137 wRC+ puts him 4th in baseball for 1B with at least 100 PAs behind Bryce Harper, Lamonte Wade and Freddie Freeman. That 2.2 Fwar is 4th behind Harper, Freeman and Walker.  

[squally1313]

12 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Busch up to a 137 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR. That 137 wRC+ puts him 4th in baseball for 1B with at least 100 PAs behind Bryce Harper, Lamonte Wade and Freddie Freeman. That 2.2 Fwar is 4th behind Harper, Freeman and Walker.  

Advanced stats are looking better too, as you'd expect. 11th amongst qualified 1Bs in xwOBA (15th out of 47 for 100 PAs) and 6th in defensive value is a first division starter. League minimum is a nice bonus on top.  

[Tryptamine]

11 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Advanced stats are looking better too, as you'd expect. 11th amongst qualified 1Bs in xwOBA (15th out of 47 for 100 PAs) and 6th in defensive value is a first division starter. League minimum is a nice bonus on top.  

Yup. I don't know that he's Rizzo 2.0, but he certainly looks like a guy who could be a foundation piece for the next half decade.

[KCCub]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Advanced stats are looking better too, as you'd expect. 11th amongst qualified 1Bs in xwOBA (15th out of 47 for 100 PAs) and 6th in defensive value is a first division starter. League minimum is a nice bonus on top.  

His Krate is coming down as well, which is huge. 27.4% since June 1st (113 PA). 

[squally1313]

39 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Yup. I don't know that he's Rizzo 2.0, but he certainly looks like a guy who could be a foundation piece for the next half decade.

Yeah I forgot how incredible Rizzo was for a few years there (wRCs of 155, 145, 145 in 2014-2016). Busch came a lot cheaper though, and there's always a chance there's another level as he settles in (167 wRC since June 1).

[Bertz]

42 minutes ago, KCCub said:

His Krate is coming down as well, which is huge. 27.4% since June 1st (113 PA). 

This is the big thing I was hoping and expecting to see.  Busch has probably been fairly fortunate from a batted ball standpoint, but also there's nothing in his profile that says his K-rate should start with a 3.  Something in the 27/28% range is a lot more reasonable.  So less luck on balls in play but more balls in play should mostly cancel each other out.

[BKHoo]

Well the Cubs have won their one obligatory game in a series versus a decent to good team ... they are good at not being swept - but do we think they can actually win this series? 

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Well the Cubs have won their one obligatory game in a series versus a decent to good team ... they are good at not being swept - but do we think they can actually win this series? 

Baltimore's offense is way too stacked to be held down long and with Shota scuffling a bit lately along with facing Burnes, I'd put them as heavy heavy underdogs today. I do think they have around a  50/50 shot tomorrow. 

[BKHoo]

Wow just wow, Busch is the top Cub in fWAR and he is number 75!  That's right the Cubs don't have one player < 75 in this all important stat.  That is embarrassing. In scanning the list, I think EVERY other team in baseball has at least one person ranked < 75.

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Wow just wow, Busch is the top Cub in fWAR and he is number 75!  That's right the Cubs don't have one player < 75 in this all important stat.  That is embarrassing. In scanning the list, I think EVERY other team in baseball has at least one person ranked < 75.

Yeah it's not great. Obviously they were going for above average spread across the roster(*) and not a stars and scrubs approach, but last year you had Cody, Nico, and Swanson all around the top 30 offensively. 

(*) when you expand the list to the top 200, if I counted right the Cubs have 9 players listed. Three of them are in the bottom ten of that list, but that's still, by definition in a 30 team league, 'above average'.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Great to see PCA back in there

[KCCub]

 

 

[Bertz]

Horsefeathers, the last update on him was pretty promising

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

time for a neckiotomy

[WhyCantWeWin]

29 minutes ago, KCCub said:

 

 

Do you or anyone know how to look at this numbers on fangraphs? I was looking but i couldnt see anything, maybe im just slow. I wanted to see Buschs numbers 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Do you or anyone know how to look at this numbers on fangraphs? I was looking but i couldnt see anything, maybe im just slow. I wanted to see Buschs numbers 

Go to a player's page - then splits - then scroll down.

 

[Irrelevant Dude]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Horsefeathers, the last update on him was pretty promising

 

Well, that sucks.

[WhyCantWeWin]

24 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Go to a player's page - then splits - then scroll down.

 

Sweet thanks, i was wrong about what I thought his numbers were going to be in high leverage 

[LBiittner]

If belli goes bomberless tonight it will be an entire month of play without a bomberooski from him. For just $30 mil?

[CubinNY]

Suttcliffe on the pregame show with his usual level of hyperbole. He always has to turn it up to 11

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

time for a neckiotomy

At least take a couple of inches off the top