Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 6-28-24

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (Central Time):

Iowa vs. St. Paul, 7:08 pm
Tennessee at Birmingham, 7:00 pm
South Bend at Wisconsin, 6:40 pm
Myrtle Beach vs. Fayetteville, 6:05 pm
ACL Cubs vs. ACL Guardians, 8:00 pm
DSL Cubs Blue vs. DSL Red Sox Blue, 10:00 am
DSL Cubs Red at DSL Pirates Black, 10:00 am

Probable Starters:

Iowa: RHP Riley Thompson (50.2 IP, 5.68 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 54 K, 24 BB)
Tennessee: RHP Matt Thompson (51.1 IP, 4.56 ERA, 5.77 FIP, 49 K, 35 BB)
South Bend: LHP Drew Gray (39 IP, 4.15 ERA, 5.03 FIP, 45 K, 42 BB)
Myrtle Beach: RHP Nazier Mulé (10 IP, 5.40 ERA, 8.53 FIP, 6 K, 14 BB)
ACL Cubs: RHP Luis Martínez-Gómez (28 IP, 3.54 ERA, 5.73 FIP, 25 K, 15 BB)

[Bertz]

I feel like I've been keeping very close tabs on Triantos and I had no idea he had anywhere close to 27 steals.

 

[Jason Ross]

Feels like "moving day" has to be coming soon for a pretty big group of kids. 

There's a handful of guys in Tennessee (Shaw, Triantos, Birdsell, to name a few) who probably need to get to Iowa. Following them, Ed Howard should move to Tennessee with a few others. Myrtle Beach should probably see Hernandez and Preciado, possibly Wiggins and a few others move to SB, as well. 

[CubinNY]

12 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I feel like I've been keeping very close tabs on Triantos and I had no idea he had anywhere close to 27 steals.

 

I've written a lot of stupid horsefeathers on here. The stupidest was writing off Triantos. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Triantos feels like a guy who will hit for a lot more power in the Majors than he does as a prospect. I think he's going to absolutely torch AAA pitching.

[Tryptamine]

I've never really had doubt in the bat, it was will he be able to play anywhere other than DH, because if you're a DH you have to absolutely mash to provide value. If this CF experiment works then his value will be tremendous.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm still fairly bearish on Triantos because I think the excess swing is going to bite him at the big league level, maybe even at AAA too.  But the high average with increased pop, SB, and apparently looking playable at 2B and CF is much more well rounded than I anticipated.  So at a minimum it looks like he's giving himself more room for error.

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm still fairly bearish on Triantos because I think the excess swing is going to bite him at the big league level, maybe even at AAA too.  But the high average with increased pop, SB, and apparently looking playable at 2B and CF is much more well rounded than I anticipated.  So at a minimum it looks like he's giving himself more room for error.

What's Bearish though? Of course he's not a 144 wRC+ bat in the bigs, but I do think he can be a solid 110-115 guy, with maybe peaks of 120. That's quite valuable and just a touch above average for the DH position this year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

What's Bearish though? Of course he's not a 144 wRC+ bat in the bigs, but I do think he can be a solid 110-115 guy, with maybe peaks of 120. That's quite valuable and just a touch above average for the DH position this year.

Without fairly significant changes in swing decisions I don't think he's an above average MLB bat.

[Bertz]

RHH Adam Frazier is still probably really high on the likely outcomes list.  But if he's got the speed to steal a bunch of bases and/or provide more defensive value from the outfield that's probablg enough to bump him up into 1st division starter territory?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

17 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Without fairly significant changes in swing decisions I don't think he's an above average MLB bat.

I will caveat this though that maybe there's something with the AA funhouse mirror run environment that's suppressing the walks a bit.  It feels like it's not a primary cause compared to the tacky ball they were using last year, but mainly this is a 'you can't walk less than 5% of the time in AA(and also have poor BB rates previously) and make it in the modern game'

[Jason Ross]

Yeah, the amount of walks Triantos isn't taking is probably slept on as much as his stolen base total, IMO. He's walked three times since May 28th, and just five times over his last 33 games. That's a 3.4% walk rate. And while I don't want to draw too direct of a a comparison here, Pete Crow-Amrstrong had a similar "I'm going to just swing" profile...and he nearly tripled that rate in Double-A. There's a lot of really good things going on with Triantos right now, but his approach remains a work in progress. Not everyone has to walk 10%+ of the time, but I think almost everyone needs to be able to walk near-ish 5% of the time and James doesn't look overly likely to do that as of today. Hopefully this is a "I am just too good at Double-A" symptom, but it's hard to really say that's also not a real flaw in his game.

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, the amount of walks Triantos isn't taking is probably slept on as much as his stolen base total, IMO. He's walked three times since May 28th, and just five times over his last 33 games. That's a 3.4% walk rate. And while I don't want to draw too direct of a a comparison here, Pete Crow-Amrstrong had a similar "I'm going to just swing" profile...and he nearly tripled that rate in Double-A. There's a lot of really good things going on with Triantos right now, but his approach remains a work in progress. Not everyone has to walk 10%+ of the time, but I think almost everyone needs to be able to walk near-ish 5% of the time and James doesn't look overly likely to do that as of today. Hopefully this is a "I am just too good at Double-A" symptom, but it's hard to really say that's also not a real flaw in his game.

He has more XBHs than strikeouts over that period why in the world would he walk?  Just to check the box?

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, Bertz said:

He has more XBHs than strikeouts over that period why in the world would he walk?  Just to check the box?

Just to compare here, but Moises Ballesteros had, over his last 33 games in Tennessee, a 135 wRC+, 11 XHB and 21 K's but also managed 12 walks. Over his last 33 games in Tennessee, Triantos has a 149 wRC+, 11 XBH, 12 K's and 3 walks. I think it's safe to assume that there are/were walks to be taken, as Ballesteros hit the same amount of XBH, but walked 4x as much while being a similar menace to Double-A pitching. I don't think the two have to be identical (as I said, I don't think he needs to walk 10% of the time! - Triantos and Ballesteros are different and succeed differently), but hitters who are good at making contact with the baseball and punishing Double-A pitching still do generally get their walks in regardless of how good they are for that level. When hitters aren't getting any walks, it usually says something.

I think two things can be happening here, and it's probably a bit of column A and B. I highlighted, in the post you responded to, that this could be some "I'm just too good for Double-A". Which it probably is; his hit tool is really good! But there's also, almost assuredly, a bit of a "happy swing" issue here, too, in that being too good for Double-A has reinforced some swing decisions that won't/can't play up as pitchers get better at exploiting those flaws. 

That doesn't mean it's some sort of fatal flaw either. I fully believe every single prospect has something to work on at every single level to achieve their best outcomes. For Ballesteros, it'd be improving his defense. For Owen Caissie, I'd like to see him crack into the game power a bit more and find some loft. For James Triantos, it's probably refining swing decisions. While we don't have Savant-data for double-A, from an anecdotal point of view and what I've seen of him, he tends to swing and get away with some decisions at the Double-A level that I think will begin to be a bit of an issue for him at higher levels when pitchers are more capable of using it against him. If he was perfect in all regards, well, these guys would be on the Cubs active roster! I think it's fair to point out the "polishes" as much as we should celebrate the wins. That's not a referendum on Triantos to say "I think he probably could walk more"; it's just a statistical symptom of a weakness in his game; I do think he's a bit swing happy and the best version of Triantos is likely going to have to better balance "I can hit this pitch" with "Should I hit this pitch?". He doesn't need to be a 10% walk rate guy, but I think the best version of Triantos is likely going to have to learn that. It's not an uncommon thing for plus hit-tool kids to have to learn, either.

[Bertz]

13 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

When hitters aren't getting any walks, it usually says something.

It is extremely normal for guys to not walk while they're in the midst of a heater.  Walks are not as streaky as power but they come in waves too.  Triantos was slugging .600+ in that span you called out (in a dead ball league!) of course he's going to look to continue doing damage. 

I don't see the point of worrying until he's not walking and also not hitting.  Also I mean his walk rates in '22 and '23 were totally normal this isn't Corey Patterson where it's some career-long attribute.

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It is extremely normal for guys to not walk while they're in the midst of a heater.  Walks are not as streaky as power but they come in waves too.  Triantos was slugging .600+ in that span you called out (in a dead ball league!) of course he's going to look to continue doing damage. 

I don't see the point of worrying until he's not walking and also not hitting.  Also I mean his walk rates in '22 and '23 were totally normal this isn't Corey Patterson where it's some career-long attribute.

Hey, it's cool if we differ here, @Bertz we're talking subjective things. And you're not wrong, sometimes when guys go on heaters, they walk less. But it's not a hard and fast rule, either. Two of the other Cubs great hitting prospects have seen heaters in Tennessee as well, and neither has stopped walking full-stop. Ballesteros maintained his walks through his entire time in Tennessee, and even over Shaw's monster heater he's walked 11 times. All of this is anecdotal, we can find data points to support either side, so please don't think I'm making hard-and-fast-rules, too. 

But I'm going to be honest with you; I do have issues with his approach as is. I do think he's too swing happy. As stated, the hope is that this is a "I'm too good for Double-A" and he'll settle back in a bit at Triple-A. I also think that MiLB numbers can hide process issues behind "I'm too good" for a level (which I think is helping his walk case earlier and at lower levels). Again, anecdotal, but Canario's 29 K% in Triple-A, for example isn't great, but doesn't signal "third-worst-contact% in the INT League" either. Pete Crow-Armstrong's walk rate/K% rates in Double-A didn't suggest a process issue on the surface, but he, too, has struggled with process and swing decision at both the Triple-A and MLB level. And not tooting-my-own-horn, but was something I was concerned about with PCA at Double-A, myself - his swing decisions. Not comparing the two directly; Triantos has better bat-to-ball and less hole in his swing, just using PCA as an example of how MiLB K%/B%% can hide the minutia and the process.

I do think it's something to monitor on Triantos. He's cleared the "add power to his game" hurdle, which I was most concerned about. It's okay if you don't see the same thing to monitor! Like I said, we're talking subjective stuff.  I had similar concerns with Shaw last year at High-A! I think he's done a really good job to assuage them this year. I think James Triantos is more than capable of making process changes, too. So, just because it's something I feel is worth monitoring and pointing out, doesn't mean I'm down on him, or super concerned. But I think it's his "next hurdle" to clear moving forward and will be the first thing I look at in the data once he (rigthtfully) makes his way to Iowa shortly. 

[craig]

1.  Thanks for discussion.  1908, you're watching games, so I think you're qualitatively observing that Triantos is a relatively free swinger and swings at some bad balls. 

2.  I'm thinking this is one of the easiest and most correctible issues a hitter can make?  I think a guy who can see the ball well, and hit the ball well, he's got an easier time adapting.  Much easier adaptation to make than for a guy who just has trouble recognizing balls from strikes, or from hitting either one.  (PCA has both of those problems; Caissie and Canario both have problems hitting strikes.).

3.  Mo B has a 3% walk rate at Iowa.  Is he making bad swing decisions?  Maybe, maybe not....

4.  Walk rate isn't the best proxy for swing-decision.   Chase-rate is better data than walk-rate data for measuring whether guy is swinging at an inappropriate number of bad balls?  [Your eye-ball observation says yes, Triantos *IS* chasing too much, that's why I appreciate hearing your scouting observation!]  

5.  We know production declines in 2-strike counts, but is relatively good on 0-strike counts.  Obviously swinging at first-pitch strikes, and hitting them, works against walk rate.  

6.  Without your observation that he chases too much, I'd have wondered if he's just kinda taken a swing-at-strikes approach, including on 1st-pitch strikes?  With his contact-skill so good, how often will a 6.5% SwStr% guy get walked if he just recognizes all strikes, swings at most-and-only strikes, and hits them?  

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, craig said:

1.  Thanks for discussion.  1908, you're watching games, so I think you're qualitatively observing that Triantos is a relatively free swinger and swings at some bad balls. 

2.  I'm thinking this is one of the easiest and most correctible issues a hitter can make?  I think a guy who can see the ball well, and hit the ball well, he's got an easier time adapting.  Much easier adaptation to make than for a guy who just has trouble recognizing balls from strikes, or from hitting either one.  (PCA has both of those problems; Caissie and Canario both have problems hitting strikes.).

3.  Mo B has a 3% walk rate at Iowa.  Is he making bad swing decisions?  Maybe, maybe not....

4.  Walk rate isn't the best proxy for swing-decision.   Chase-rate is better data than walk-rate data for measuring whether guy is swinging at an inappropriate number of bad balls?  [Your eye-ball observation says yes, Triantos *IS* chasing too much, that's why I appreciate hearing your scouting observation!]  

5.  We know production declines in 2-strike counts, but is relatively good on 0-strike counts.  Obviously swinging at first-pitch strikes, and hitting them, works against walk rate.  

6.  Without your observation that he chases too much, I'd have wondered if he's just kinda taken a swing-at-strikes approach, including on 1st-pitch strikes?  With his contact-skill so good, how often will a 6.5% SwStr% guy get walked if he just recognizes all strikes, swings at most-and-only strikes, and hits them?  

I wouldn't even say Triantos is "chasing" too much. I think it comes down to "good strtikes" and "bad strikes", too. It's kind of hard to tell...I'll admit the last 1.5 months of my life has been a lot. I'm in the process of purchasing a home, so I'm moving, packing, looking at houses, filing paperwork...let's put it this way, I'm dying in this house! But also, these games are hard to see, there's no K-zone and we don't have data. So it's not so much that I think Triantos doesn't know the zone, but maybe, struggles a bit to know the best pitches to hit always. Does that make sense? He's just a guy who knows he can hit most of the things he's thrown at Double-A. It's kind of what I'm excited to get the Savant stuff. I'd like to see his swing decision heat map. I'm just guessin' here and trying my best to take my anecdotal data (the eye test) make it actual real data. In the end, that will either support or not my opinion. And hell, I'm not always right, far from it! Guys with strong hit tools generally have to learn when it's best to not hit the ball, if that makes sense? And I'm not sure if there's any skill that's an "easy" change, approach changes can sometimes be the hardest; look at Javier Baez! It comes down to the individual. Triantos has done well to add pop to his game (a common shortfall) so we can apply the idea that he's receptive to change here and hope that if the Triple-A data suggests what I'm intimating, that he's the type capable of giving it a good old college try.

With Ballesteros, I'd be pretty patient on walk rates and whatever for Triple-A. We're at small sample size. His contact% isn't even particularly "good" there right now. I think we know that the bat to ball is transferable skill he has, and I'd expect over big data sets things to calm down and settle into a normal pattern. This is a 20 year old kid, facing the best pitching he's ever faced. The same with Shaw, Triantos, and others...it's always really good to take the first bit of data with a grain of salt until that sample gets into the 100 PA range. Even then, there's so much with learning the league, new fields, new arms, new talent levels...

 

[craig]

Yeah, I wasn't trying to suggest that Ballesteros 3% means much, it's a limited sample.  Just that walk-rate isn't a perfect proxy for decision-making.  That he's been whacking lots of hard-hit balls with power suggests Ballesteros is not currently struggling with swing-decisions, even though walk-rate is vacant.  

This is maybe dumb/naive/old-fashioned, but I do wonder if some guys take too many pitches?  Wait for a groove pitch in my heat-map; suddenly I'm sitting two-strike count and I'm toast.  This can get worse in the majors; they throw fewer mistakes into my heat map, so I'm even less likely to get one.  Swinging at and hitting strike one, that may not be good for walks; but it might be the best pitch you're going to get in a lot of AB?  Maybe the reduction in walks is less cost than the gain in hits and power and slug? 

Maybe Moises elected to swing a little more aggressively, walk less, but hit harder, and that's helped his recent surge?  

Second, I wonder if developmentally, whether swinging at all strikes might actually be a good developmental objective?  Even if they aren't all "pitches-you-can-really-drive"?  Practice hitting strikes in all quadrants, and learn to hit them hard, or at least somewhat harder?  Once in the majors, pitchers are really good at avoiding your heat maps, so perhaps part of minor-league hitting should involve trying to get warmer in my cold quadrants?  Going to be a lot of big-league AB's where I don't see anything in my favorite heat-zones.  

I'm just rambling.  

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Hey, Ben Leeper fresh off his third TJS got the start for the ACL Cubs. 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Mule with 4 IP, 5 Ks, 1 BB, 2 Hs, 2 Rs, 5/2 GB/AO 

 

[Rex Buckingham]

That slider has some bite

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Joan Delgado fell a single shy of the cycle down in Arizona.

[allen6510w]

11 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Hey, Ben Leeper fresh off his third TJS got the start for the ACL Cubs. 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K.

That's great.  One surgery in HS, one in college, one in the minors, and hopefully he'll get an opportunity to have one in the majors.