Article: 2024 Chicago Cubs Positional Preview: Who Is The Fifth Starter?

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Barring any injury or shocking meltdown, the Top Four options for the Chicago Cubs starting rotation appear set. But in a league where it's rare to use fewer than eight starting pitchers in a season, who fills the gaps?

Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports

As previously noted, we’ll see Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon, and Shōta Imanaga ride it out at the top. It’s not a group with a ton of flash or intrigue, but given the defense behind them, they should be more than adequate. If you’re looking for a bit extra of the latter, look no further than the depth. 

The Cubs still have a fifth starter to sort. Their name may have been floated in association with Jordan Montgomery, but it’s hard to imagine at this stage. Instead, they’ll look to a veteran roster holdover (Drew Smyly), an upper-tier prospect coming off a bit more than a cup of coffee (Jordan Wicks), a pair of swingmen from 2023 (Javier Assad & Hayden Wesneski), a post-hype-ish prospect (Ben Brown), and their top pitching prospect (Cade Horton). All will likely see a start on the bump at Wrigley in 2024. But sustainability remains a question for all.

The Depth: Drew Smyly, Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Cade Horton

2023 Stats
Smyly: 23 GS, 142.1 IP, 8.92 K/9, 3.54 BB/9, 1.43 WHIP, 5.00 ERA, 4.96 FIP

Wicks: 7 GS, 34.2 IP, 6.23 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, 1.27 WHIP, 4.41 ERA, 4.70 FIP

Assad: 10 GS, 109.1 IP, 7.74 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 1.23 WHIP, 3.05 ERA, 4.29 FIP

Wesneski: 11 GS, 89.1 IP, 8.36 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 1.28 WHIP, 4.63 ERA, 5.48 FIP

Brown (AAA): 15 GS, 72.2 IP, 12.39 K/9, 6.32 BB/9, 1.53 WHIP, 5.33 ERA, 4.66 FIP

Horton (A+): 11 GS, 47.0 IP, 12.45 K/9, 2.30 BB/9, 1.00 WHIP, 3.83 ERA, 3.23 FIP

2024 Projections (ZiPS)
Smyly: 21 GS, 121 IP, 8.63 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 1.35 WHIP, 4.54 ERA, 4.63 FIP

Wicks: 25 GS, 110 IP, 7.67 K/9, 3.18 BB/9, 1.33 WHIP, 4.41 ERA, 4.37 FIP

Assad: 17 GS, 114 IP, 7.17 K/9, 3.54 BB/9, 1.39 WHIP, 4.33 ERA, 4.73 FIP

Wesneski: 17 GS, 101 IP, 8.32 K/9, 3.27 BB/9, 1.32 WHIP, 4.51 ERA, 4.41 FIP

Brown: 20 GS, 95 IP, 9.03 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 1.35 WHIP, 4.23 ERA, 4.29 FIP

Horton: 22 GS, 86 IP, 7.43 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 1.28 WHIP, 4.50 ERA, 4.43 FIP

Scouting Report
The degree to which we’ll see Smyly out of the starting gate in ’24 depends heavily on who you talk to or projection model to which you subscribe. Smyly returns to the Cubs after exercising his player option following the struggles of 2023. June was a particularly laborious month, as Smyly posted his worst K-BB numbers of the year (3.9 K-BB%) and was touched for a HardHit% up near 40. He was bounced from the rotation and fared decently as a reliever, but his status as a starter is heavily in doubt. Nonetheless, Smyly does offer some intrigue for the upcoming year, given his winter work at Driveline. Therein, he worked to add a splitter & slider to the mix while dropping the slider. The results haven’t been there this spring – on paper – but it stands to reason that he could be effective in a swing role if the changes take. It’s hard to imagine him as a starter with any kind of longevity at this stage. 

Wicks flashed about as much as we could have hoped for in 2023, especially given his skill set. He is the type of cerebral arm that the team covets – given the defensive infrastructure on the roster – he’s not going to overpower anyone. But he can locate and mix enough to make him a mid-rotation guy. It’s just a matter of increasing the workload. If I were a betting man – and I’m not – he’d be the guy to get the first crack at the fifth spot. 

Assad and Wesneski each bring plenty of value to the current roster, even as they live in something of a pitcher’s purgatory. Neither has shown enough over a longer-term stretch to latch onto a rotation spot, but they’re each very effective in shorter stints. Assad had a nice run as a spot starter but could generate whiffs and induce soft contact at a much higher rate as a reliever. Wesneski was not too dissimilar. Walks plagued him in relief, but the strikeout rate was higher, and the hard contact rate was drastically lower. It’s straightforward to imagine a world where either or both are in a long relief/spot starting role once again; it’s equally easy to see the organization wanting to keep either one stretched out in Iowa. 

As for the prospects, we’re looking at the murkiest picture of the depth group but with the highest upside. Given health and command issues, Ben Brown lost some of the luster as an option last year. But his combination of upper-90s and nonsense-breaking stuff is too tantalizing to ignore forever. He dabbled in relief last year; one wonders if the Cubs move that option to the forefront to get him to Wrigley more expediently. Horton represents the highest upside of the system’s arms. He already has the velocity and the slider. He’s working on the changeup and maybe the curve. He’s an exciting prospect, but one does wonder about the timeline. Do the Cubs give him a crack at relief sometime during the summer just to get him big-league innings? Does he get a full slate of minor league starts throughout ’24 for workload purposes? It’s tough to ignore the upside in the context of him not being too far, but I don’t imagine the Cubs will rush here unless they need to.

Other Options
None. That’s kind of it. Unless a starting prospect takes a massive leap or the Cubs make a shocking play for Jordan Montgomery, we’re likely looking at the group for the immediate future.

The Big Question
How will the organization manage the higher-upside guys in 2024? 

I posited a couple of different ways in which the Cubs can go about handling Brown and Horton. For the most part, we know what shape things will take for the other younger arms. Wicks likely starts, whether in Chicago or Iowa. Assad and/or Wesneski could be bound for Iowa, but a swing role does make heavy sense for either of them. But what of Brown & Horton? What does the timeline look like? What does the role in 2024 look like? One imagines we’ll have answers to those questions soon. Fearless prediction? Brown ends up moving to relief, at least for a time. Ideally, it keeps him healthy and builds his confidence in short stints. Horton, conversely, ends up starting on the farm for the duration of the year. The former seems more likely, but it’ll be very interesting to see how aggressive the Cubs want to be in progressing Horton, especially up through the ranks.

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[CubinNY]

I think Wicks is the 5 starter. Wesneski did have a decent start last night. I don't like him as a starter, but I do like him in the pen. 

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I think Wicks is the 5 starter. Wesneski did have a decent start last night. I don't like him as a starter, but I do like him in the pen. 

Do the Cubs have 4 starters? What is up with Taillon? Like to see him get on the mound soon. I agree Wicks should be #5, however. 

[Bertz]

It feels increasingly clear that it's Wicks.  He felt like the favorite coming in, and nearly a month into camp that feels even more likely now.  Counsell's already straight up said Smyly is a swingman

Quote

 

That’s exactly where Drew Smyly lands — in sort of the purgatory between the rotation and bullpen. He is being stretched out as a starter but his best fit to the team on Opening Day may be as a reliever.

The next few weeks will ultimately tell the story, but Counsell is also taking a big-picture view on Smyly’s role.

“I think that he can do both and some willingness to do both is [good],” Counsell said. “There’s definitely points of the year that are gonna make that really important. And I’m sure Drew is probably, at points of the year, going to do both roles.”

“Part of it is a mindset thing to do well at [both roles] is you have to accept that and just go get outs. Pitchers’ jobs are just to get outs — that’s their job whenever inning, whatever role, whatever time in the game is get outs.

 

That does not preclude him from opening as thr #5 starter but it would certainly be evidence against.  And then two of Assad's three outings have been in relief, including coming in all the way in the 7th last time out.

Wesneski is a guy Counsell name-checked at Cubs convention, and I think yesterday looked better than any of the other guys have at any point all spring, so if I were playing odds maker he'd be second in line right now.

[I owned a Suzuki]

I predict every candidate listed besides Horton get 5+ starts