Article: 2024 Chicago Cubs Spring Training Position Battles: The Bullpen

[Matthew Trueblood]

Today, we continue our series examining some of the positions for which spring training could be decisive for the 2024 Cubs. To do so, let's turn our attention to the relief corps.

Image courtesy of © Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Quietly, the Cubs have locked in over half their bullpen for 2024, assuming health and a reasonable amount of performance carryover from 2023. Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. anchored the North Siders'  relief unit last year, and the one closest to not making the roster in a vacuum (Leiter) happens to be the one guy in the trio without minor-league options remaining. You can write those three in as sure things, unless any of them is injured.

Behind them are another couple of locks who are new to the organization. Héctor Neris and Yency Almonte. Neris was a free-agent signee who could stick around for a couple years and earn nearly $20 million of Tom Ricketts's money, so you know he's part of the plan. Almonte is a trickier case, but there's much to like about his arsenal and his very recent track record. He, like Leiter, is also out of minor-league options, so someone else in the team's middle-relief snarl is going to end up missing the cut.

Alzolay, Merryweather, Leiter, Neris, and Almonte makes five. The Cubs only have room for eight relievers on their roster, and there are another handful of candidates to consider. They shake out, basically, into two groups.

Failed Starters
As we've all rehearsed to ourselves a few times by now, every reliever is really a failed starter, but the Cubs have three impressive hurlers whose stuff has played up in fascinating and tempting ways when they've moved to short relief--but who all might be needed as starting depth, instead, and who all still harbor the ambition of starting for this team all year.

Hayden Wesneski has a lot of work left to do to reconcile his stuff to his release points and neutralize left-handed batters, but his arm is pure electricity. If he proves able to give up the crutch that has been his sweeper since the Yankees installed that pitch for him a few years ago and start throwing more of a gyro slider instead, he could really break out. Failing that, though, his best role is in relief. The question will be whether he's able to get righties out any more reliably than Almonte, since the bullpen version of Wesneski is pretty much a short-burst, matchup guy, not someone who can give you multiple innings and face the whole lineup without fear.

Many of the same things apply, paradoxically, to Drew Smyly, who is otherwise a tough comparison to Wesneski. In his mid-30s and still trying to carve a more coherent legacy for himself in the game, the southpaw had to be consigned to the pen late in 2023. His stuff took on a whole different character there, though. He threw his curveball vastly more often, and his fastball ticked all the way up into the mid-90s. Then, he went to Driveline this winter and tried to design himself a new repertoire that would allow him to stick in the rotation. As with Wesneski, he's either going to be a starter or someone Craig Counsell wants to use purely in single-inning, let-it-eat situations.

Thankfully, Javier Assad offers something different. The stocky Mexican righty isn't going to rack up strikeouts even if he moves to the pen. He's not going to give up much high-quality contact in that role either, though. His fastball goes from pedestrian to sizzling when he's pitching with adrenaline in a short burst, but the best form of that pitch still isn't a bat-misser. It's more of a barrel-misser.

None of these three are, by any means, guaranteed a spot in the bullpen at all. One or more of them might make the rotation, and both Assad and Wesneski have minor-league options. If we assume Jordan Wicks has the insider track for the fifth starter's job, Smyly makes the most sense for a relief role from this group, and he'd almost surely get one as the team's primary lefty reliever. Whether even one of the other two would stick in the majors can only be answered by considering our other set of remaining candidates.

Exciting But Inconsistent Single-Inning Arms with Options Left
It's not as snappy a category name as "Failed Starters," but what're you going to do? This crew consists chiefly of Jose Cuas, Daniel Palencia, and Luke Little. Cuas might be a surprising name to see placed down here. The Cubs did proactively acquire him last summer, and he's got an extraordinary combination of stuff and release point that could keep hitters confused and frustrated when facing the bullpen overall. On the other hand, he still has significant walk problems, and he can be optioned to the minors, so if it comes down to Cuas and a healthy Almonte, the rules are heavily in favor of Almonte getting the nod.

Palencia and Little have showed some genuinely filthy stuff, but Palencia hasn't yet made smooth the rough edges when a starter cuts down his game to become a reliever, and Little is a huge man with long, sometimes uncontrollable levers. By midseason, either could have emerged as the team's relief ace. On the other hand, both could be relegated to Triple A, or already off the roster. Their talent is tremendous, but neither has shown enough to be assured of a place on the team yet. There are too many other arms in the picture.

The Likely Configuration
If I had to bet, based on what we've seen this winter and how the roster shapes up at this moment, I would bet on the following:

• One of the top four projected starters being injured and unavailable to begin the season;
• Both Wicks and Wesneski making the rotation;
• Smyly slotting in as the main lefty and sixth arm in the bullpen;
• Assad sliding into the medium-leverage, multi-inning role in which he did some of his best work in 2023; and
• Cuas claiming the final spot in the bullpen.

This can be a downright dominant relief corps, and they'll be managed by a much savvier skipper in 2024 than they had last year. There are all kinds of possible outcomes of these early catch sessions and Cactus League contests, and all kinds of possible reasons for those outcomes. On balance, Smyly, Assad, and Cuas have the best odds to break camp with the club, but that could change in several ways. I can feel a trade coming to clear up some of this seeming excess, but just as often, injuries pulverize would-be dilemmas like these, anyway.

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's probably a better place to put this, but one of the potential surprises I'm low key wondering about is if the Cubs don't really believe in Assad and are trying to build a staff where he's Iowa depth.  This would come into sharper focus if they did pull the trigger on one of the more recent names they were linked to like Lorenzen, but not even absolutely necessary.  This is especially true if we think Counsell will have less interest in having a couple multi-inning guys in the pen than Ross was, though if Wicks wins the 5th starter job it only takes a good spring from Wesneski to likely make it happen.

[mul21]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

There's probably a better place to put this, but one of the potential surprises I'm low key wondering about is if the Cubs don't really believe in Assad and are trying to build a staff where he's Iowa depth.  This would come into sharper focus if they did pull the trigger on one of the more recent names they were linked to like Lorenzen, but not even absolutely necessary.  This is especially true if we think Counsell will have less interest in having a couple multi-inning guys in the pen than Ross was, though if Wicks wins the 5th starter job it only takes a good spring from Wesneski to likely make it happen.

What's leading to this train of thought?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

13 minutes ago, mul21 said:

What's leading to this train of thought?

He doesn't have much prospect pedigree, he doesn't throw hard or have a particularly devastating second pitch, his MLB success has been by beating his FIP by large margins, and he doesn't show much aptitude for preventing hard contact.  History is littered with guys who had a strong year as a swingman from guts and good luck but aren't bound to be bullpen staples, and I think it's very possible that's the case with Assad.

[Jason Ross]

Good thoughts on Adsad, TT. I'm not a major believer of him moving forward despite the improved ERA on the second half. He probably has some FIP beating ability due to the high number of ground balls he throws (a known FIP beating quality) but I wouldn't be very high on him myself. With Smyly and Wesneski already having the ability to go multiple innings, Counsell being more a fan of the "one inning" guy, having Assad open up in Iowa and supplementing with a Luke Little (who might be on the roster bubble) or a Daniel Panelcia could make sense. Counsell is a stuff monster and those guys have stuff.

[CubinNY]

7 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Good thoughts on Adsad, TT. I'm not a major believer of him moving forward despite the improved ERA on the second half. He probably has some FIP beating ability due to the high number of ground balls he throws (a known FIP beating quality) but I wouldn't be very high on him myself. With Smyly and Wesneski already having the ability to go multiple innings, Counsell being more a fan of the "one inning" guy, having Assad open up in Iowa and supplementing with a Luke Little (who might be on the roster bubble) or a Daniel Panelcia could make sense. Counsell is a stuff monster and those guys have stuff.

Not for nothing, I'd trust Asad a hell of a lot more than the other two guys to go more than one inning. 

[Bertz]

I think the big determining factor will be how they view the "Failed Starters." Which one(s) are SP depth, which long relief, which optimized towards short relief?

As you've written previously Smyly and Wesneski you don't have to squint very hard to see being very successful in short relief.  Assad doesn't have the money pitch or two of those other two guys, but also was easily the most effective of the three in MLB last year, regardless of role.

I expect Craig to carry only one long reliever, with one of Assad/Wesneski at Iowa in the rotation in case of injury, and one of Wesneski/Smyly to be tried out as a standard one inning reliever.  I'm guessing long relief for Assad, Iowa rotation for Wesneski,  and short relief for Smyly, but wouldn't be shocked in any direction. 

I also think there are two potential personnel moves that would shake things up a bit.  First, and TT's written about this before, but I wonder if Leiter's name should be written more in pencil rather than pen a la Rowan Wick last spring.  He is a batting practice pitcher if that splitter is not working, so I think he is very much needing to earn his roster spot this spring.  I also think there's likely another addition on the way.  There's been enough smoke around additional pitching depth, that in my mind it's gone from a possibility to an expectation.  It is interesting that there's been smoke around both regular relief and additional swing men.  But I suspect another setup type is more likely, let's say Ryne Stanek just to put a name to it

Ultimately I'd guess we end up with this

CL - Alzolay

SU - Merryweather, Neris, Stanek

MR - Smyly, Almonte, Leiter

LR - Assad

Iowa - Wesneski, Little, Cuas, Palencia, others

I think swapping Wesneski in for Assad, cutting Leiter, foregoing the dedicated long relief spot, and foregoing the external acquisition, in that order, are the most likely deviations from the above.  I think the Iowa guys, in the order I have them, are the most likely to backfill.

[Jason Ross]

21 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Not for nothing, I'd trust Asad a hell of a lot more than the other two guys to go more than one inning. 

I'm not sure I would. Assad had the better ERA, but even ZiPS doesn't think there's much difference between the three. The best expected FIP is 4.41 (Wesneski) and the worst expected FIP is 4.73 (Assad). They're all ballpark projected similarly, and I'd let the Cubs kind of decide who should go where and how. I wouldn't be surprised to think the Cubs thought Assad was better served as rotational depth in the MiLB. Or that he was more useful than Wesneski.

[CubinNY]

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm not sure I would. Assad had the better ERA, but even ZiPS doesn't think there's much difference between the three. The best expected FIP is 4.41 (Wesneski) and the worst expected FIP is 4.73 (Assad). They're all ballpark projected similarly, and I'd let the Cubs kind of decide who should go where and how. I wouldn't be surprised to think the Cubs thought Assad was better served as rotational depth in the MiLB. Or that he was more useful than Wesneski.

I'm thinking more of match ups. Wesneski can't get lefties out and Smyly can't get righties out. In a multiple inning role, they are going to have to be able to do that. 

[Jason Ross]

25 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I'm thinking more of match ups. Wesneski can't get lefties out and Smyly can't get righties out. In a multiple inning role, they are going to have to be able to do that. 

Interestingly enough, while it feels like that on the surface, Smyly did worse against LHP than RHP in 2023. As well, Assad (.317 wOBA against RHP) and Smyly (.325 wOBA against RHP) were very similar. So I'm not sure their 2023 data suggests that's true. Historically, Drew Smyly is worse against RHP over LHP, but with his age and Cub tweaks, I'm not sure how much I'm going to concern myself with data from 3, 4 and 5 years ago, either.